One Last Wave of Showers

October 19th, 2012 at 10:14 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There is one last wave of showers rapidly approaching fromthe northwest.  So, I need to extend showers in the forecast through part of the overnight.

Late tonight, with holes in clouds (as partial clearing is evident upstream as sliver of dry air mixes in), thinking mostly cloudy is a good morning wording.  Then, skies will become partly cloudy with time.  Despite a breeze, thinking perhaps some fog possible late.


Showery & Chilly…………..with Muddy Football Fields

October 19th, 2012 at 6:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Showery & drizzly weather will continue this evening with temperatures falling into the 40s with west winds at 10-15 mph.

It will not be a solid, steady rain, but off & on.  The football fields will be muddy mires!

This will end tonight with some fog/mist possible & lows of 38-41 degrees.  West breeze will continue at 10-15 mph.

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I Have Had Questions About Winter Forecast…………

October 19th, 2012 at 3:51 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I have recently had a few questions regarding my winter forecast & whether I want to change anything, given recently down-turn in El Nino.  First of all, thank you for all of your questions always!  I enjoy them!

Once the forecast is done, it is done.  I will not be making any changes.  I still like normal snowfall overall with slightly-above normal temperatures, overall, though.

Everything is playing out in the grand scheme of details.  The timing is off a bit.

Went for cool, wet early fall, but the cool, wet weather is lasting longer than I thought.  I figured once we got into October, it would turn WARM & dry out with even some 80s.  Well, it looks like that will not happen until next week………….which is a few weeks later than I thought.

Solar output is higher than last winter, so I think even if there is no El Nino, some of the similar effects will exist.  Persistent, enhanced area of convection via the MJO in the eastern Pacific will keep the southern U.S. wet & stormy.  STILL thinking lots of snow for East Coast with a big Piedmont ice storm in the South & milder conditions in the northern Plains.

FALL:  COOL, WET EARLY FALL, THEN DRIER & WARMER LATTER FALL………….

WINTER:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER WITH NORMAL SNOWFALL (ABOUT 21″)……

SPRING:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SPRING…………BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL

SUMMER:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL NEXT SUMMER……………

FALL 2013:  WARM, DRY EARLY NEXT FALL (DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE), THEN WET & COOL LATE FALL……….

EL NINO:  As of September 12, El Nino is weak in the Pacific with a 0.7 reading on a scale of 0 (neutral) to 3 (very strong El Nino)…………….(-3 would be very strong La Nina, -1.0 or 0.5 weak La Nina).

Forecast guidance suggests El Nino to increase in intensity to a weak event by December-January, then largely turn to neutral status by early next summer.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a hair stronger, but not anticipating a big event.

Lack of Arctic ice due to warmth & strong winds of incredibly strong polar vortex & the strong polar vortex bottling some of the Arctic air up will make this winter nothing extremely warm, but not really cold either.  Snowfall will run normal, give strong subtropical jet interacting with some cold spells here.  One icing event is likely (mixed with snow & sleet in February), but it does not look major.

Volcanic aerosols are not above normal & given polar vortex personality last year & right now, thinking NAO/AO will spend a lot of time in the neutral to positive phase (especially with surge in solar output).

1934-35 was a strong match for the upcoming fall-winter-spring-summer in terms Northern Hemisphere pattern & U.S. soil moisture pattern.  1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1940 all had hot, dry summers with rainfall relief in early to mid-August, but only 1934 saw the heat wave migrate westward pretty much stay just west of us mid- to late-August through September, just like now.  Much higher soil moisture here developed by early September, while the Plains continued the same pattern as in summer (just like now).

1934-35 was not outstanding.  It had normal to above-normal snowfall & above normal temperatures & below-normal precipitation.

I think what will bring us normal snowfall is the strong, moisture-charged subtropical jet reacting with our seasonably cold air.  So, that is why I forecasted normal snowfall & two winter-storm watch/warning events.

Thinking the southwest U.S. mountains, southern Plains & mid-Atlantic & northeast U.S. could get pretty big snows.  There will be several big Nor’easters in the northeast with one significant ice storm in the Piedmont & coastal Plain of the Carolinas, into the Appalachians & as far north as Virginia.  It could be a really damaging ice storm.  Arctic airmass eastern Ohio to the Northeast will support very impressive lake effect (perhaps some record lake effect snows) around Cleveland, Buffalo & Jamestown.

I think unseasonable snows may occur at low elevations in the Desert Southwest with perhaps a record 4-6″ snow for Tucson, even Albuquerque may see a BIG snow event.  Flooding will be possible in southern California to Texas with snows in northern & central Texas to Oklahoma.  I think there may be one event where a cold upper low brings wet snow to Dallas, Austin with perhaps flakes to San Antonio & Little Rock.  The southern U.S. just looks wet with frequent rain & storms with a lot of chilly, gray days.  Strong subtropical jet will support a higher-than-normal potential of severe weather events in the South, specifically on the Gulf Coast & on the Florida peninsula.  Combine such moisture with cold air from all of the Northeast snow damming up in the Appalachians & you spell trouble for icing in the Appalachians, Piedmont & Coastal Plain (see above).

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Fairbanks, Alaska Webcams……….At Least We Have a While to Wait for These Scenes!

October 19th, 2012 at 12:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It may be cool & raw here with showers & temperatures near 50 (70s will be here soon), but check out the live webcam snapshots from Fairbanks, Alaska.

Winter arrives very quickly & early there.  It is currently 12 at Fairbanks after a high yesterday of 22.  Interestingly, it was in the lower 60s in early October at Fairbanks when we were so below-normal with overnight lows in the 20s.

At least we have a while before scenes like this arrive here!

Live ArcticCam image

 

 

Camera Image

 



The Outlook to Halloween

October 18th, 2012 at 10:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a windy day with gusts early this afternoon as high as 44 mph.  It will be brisk Friday & Saturday, but we don’t not look to have windy weather return until mid next week with gusts up to 40 mph Wednesday-Friday.

Chilly, showery weather is moving through a good chunk of the viewing area tonight.  Friday looks gray, showery, brisk & cool, but it will not be an all-day rain.  The showery weather will last to tomorrow evening & may be out of here by 7, IF we are lucky.  Some data suggests some showers may hang out until as late as 9 in the area.  Regardless, the football fields will be wet & muddy for the Frenzy.

Saturday may begin mostly cloudy to cloudy, but skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon.  After near 41 in the morning, highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s by late afternoon.  Sunday looks like the better of the two weekend days with mostly sunny skies (after some morning fog) & highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

It should be a great weekend to view fall foliage nearing peak color.

Temperature look generally above to well-above normal beginning this weekend & lasting to nearly Halloween.  After upper 70s & even 80 late next week, it will cool to normal/slightly-above normal before Halloween & then slightly-below normal temperatures on Halloween (see below).

Clusters of showers & storms will pop Monday-Tuesday & affect us Monday night-Tuesday as warm front & surface low pressure lift northeastward.  Dynamics support severe threat from Illinois to Oklahoma.

Wednesday & Thursday look dry, windy & warm with temperatures 15 to nearly 20 degrees ABOVE normal.  Overnight lows look EQUAL to, even WARMER than average highs for late October!

Much stronger storm system may develop & pivot up through Kansas, Iowa & Minnesota to end next week with surface pressure equivalent to a high-end tropical storm by the time it reaches Minnesota.  Severe event/outbreak is possible Wisconsin & Illinois to Texas.  Given dynamics (120 mph upper jet streak & 80 mph low-level jet with helicity values exceeding 450 to our west) & surface instability, this is very reasonable.  Both severe episodes will get very close to our area & pending more data, it MAY extend into our area in future forecast outlooks.  Tornadoes seem to be a good possibility Missouri to Texas if surface instability does indeed reach forecast projections.

Saturday October 27-Monday October 29 look like 50s & 60s, followed by a few showers with a surface cold front Tuesday October 30 & cooler highs of 45-50 on Halloween with dry weather & overnight lows near 30.


Historic Wind Storm & Dust Bowl Weather For the Plains

October 18th, 2012 at 4:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Large wildfires & a massive dust storm is striking the Plains.  Historic wind gusts of 80 mph have occurred for two days with the intense gusts from Saskatchewan to Oklahoma as strong storm system (that produced tornadoes in Missouri, Arkansas & Mississippi) pivots through.

Strong winds & fires have also occurred in California, too.


Rainfall Totals, Measured Peak Gusts Today……………..Stratus Deck & Some Showers Arriving This Evening-Tonight (Been In Dry Slot)

October 18th, 2012 at 3:04 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Rainfall totals from Wednesday-Wednesday night are below along with peak measured wind gusts today.  We will still have breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, but I think the highest gusts have already passed (as high as 44 mph).

Stratus deck is pivoting from the northwest & west.  This will turn our skies cloudy this evening & showers will arrive & last into Friday.  Friday will be much cooler with highs only near 50.


Rain with Embedded T’Storms…………..Windy Thursday with Low Stratus Deck Pivoting In After Sunshine

October 17th, 2012 at 10:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Had reports of pea-sized hail around Monticello & northeast of Burnettsville in White County this evening.

Now, main band of rain & embedded t’storms is passing through.  Severe threat will stay to our southwest & south.  We had wind damage as far north as central Illinois tonight with wind & tornadoes in Missouri to Arkansas & Missouri.  Trees were snapped off & reportedly splintered north of Decatur, Illinois.

Rain will end tonight, we’ll have the dry slot part of tomorrow with sunshine.  Low stratus deck will pivot in from the west & northwest in the afternoon & evening, turning the skies cloudy.  Highs near 62 will occur in that dry slot of sunshine before falling into the upper 50s later in the day as we turn cloudy.

Winds will be an issue Thursday.  Gusts of up to 45 mph are possible from the southwest & west-southwest with sustained winds at 20-25 mph for several hours.  Thinking the highest winds will be in the early to mid afternoon with a bit of a diminishing trend to the winds by late in the day & in the evening (gusts to 33 mph, rather than 45 mph)

 

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More Rain & Storms

October 17th, 2012 at 6:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We are in a break right now, but wave of rain & storms will pass later this evening-tonight.  Severe threat will stay just southwest & south of here, where Severe T’Storm & Tornado Watches are lined up.  Overnight, once this passes, skies will tend to clear.

Boy, if it were more unstable at the surface & throughout the entire lower atmosphere, we would have a big severe weather outbreak on our hands, given these dynamics.  Where those dynamics are occurring over a more unstable airmass, damaging storms are currently occurring & new ones will form this evening to our southwest.

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70% Chance Pea-Sized Hail Northeast White…………Otherwise Brief Lull Area-Wide Soon, Then Round of Rain/Storms Later This Evening.

October 17th, 2012 at 5:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Small hail is possible northeast White County.  70% chance of small hail with this cell.