1.5″ New Snow Tipton Already……..1″ Crawfordsville

December 28th, 2012 at 9:58 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Merger has taken place & bands of heavy snow have blossomed as a result.  5.0″ has been reported on the northwest side of Indianapolis as persistent, mesoscale, frontogenetical banding continues.  These bands have been very intense.

1.5″ has been reported from Tipton, 1″ at Crawfordsville.  Light snow is falling at the station, but there has not been accumulation since it started at around 9:45 p.m.

I am upping totals some in parts of our southeastern counties, but everything else looks good.

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System Merger Farther West….Winter Storm Warning Now For Southern Indiana….New Years Snowfall Information

December 28th, 2012 at 3:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Total accumulations of around 1″ to as much as 2.3″ are likely when adding up what has fallen today & what will fall tonight-tomorrow.  This include the accumulation in our northwest counties this morning, the wave of snowfall tonight-Saturday morning & some lake effect snow showers scattered about mainly in our northeast tomorrow, though at least some flurries & snow showers may dot the area at times.

Winds will pick up tomorrow morning-afternoon with northerly gusts as high as 25, perhaps 28 mph.  Some blowing & drifting is possible, but with highs near 32, there will be melting.  So, it will not be a dry, powdery snow that is easily blown.

System near New Years is accelerating, so it will likely bring snowfall as early as New Years Eve evening-night to New Years Day, rather than New Years Day to the day after.  1.5-6″ looks like a good preliminary forecast for our area with the best chance of 6″ down towards Kingman, Waveland, Crawfordsville, Ladoga & Lebanon.


Complicated Forecast with Minor Snowfall Accumulations Tonight (Up to 6″ In Southern Indiana As System Merger Occurs Farther West)

December 28th, 2012 at 2:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY:  COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY WITH 1.1″ OF SNOW WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES…………..THICK OVERCAST REMAINS…………

Today has been a complicated forecast day.  Low clouds have hung on, keeping us in the upper 20s all night, though we are as high as 36 right now.  Parts of western Ohio dropped to 8 lastnight with clear skies & freezing fog/frost.  It shows you what clear skies & calm winds can do to your temperature with snowpack & it shows what a low stratus deck under an inversion can do.  They act as a thick blanket.

Dynamic forcing & frontal forcing for snowfall continues to occur to our north & some of this forcing has brought a quick wave of moderate to heavy snow in Newton & Jasper County.  Up to 1.1″ has been reported from Newton County with 0.5″ in Pulaski to northwest White counties. 

Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture is surging northward from Missouri.

TEDIOUS, BIT COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT AS POLAR & SUBTROPICAL JETS MERGE SOUTH OF HERE WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW BLOSSOMING (ESPECIALLY SOUTH & SOUTHEAST OF HERE)………..

A system merger of the two is likely tonight with minor snowfall accumulations across the area, but it is a close call as to how much.  Where the merger takes place will determine how much we get.  STILL thinking southern Indiana may get as much as 6″ tonight.

So, the 0.3-1.1″ in our northwestern & northern counties so far may have a bit more added to it tonight on the order of 0.5-1.1″.  That would give our north generally 1-2″………..perhaps 3″ of total snowfall.

For everyone else near 1″ will do, EXCEPT in the south, where over 1″ to 2″ will likely fall.

Brief wave of moderate to heavy snowfall today totals:


Still Looks Like Some Snowfall Tonight-Saturday Morning

December 28th, 2012 at 11:32 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Merger looks to occur slightly farther west.  That said, up to 6″ may fall in southeastern Indiana with two areas of 1-2″ in the area with a lot of the area in 1″ or less (around 0.6″ West Lafayette/Lafayette area).

So, 1-2″ may fall in the far, far north & northeast from Wheatfield to Monterrey to Rochester by Saturday.  Also, I am thinking 1-2″ in the far southeast from Crawfordsville to Kirklin to Tipton.

Recent NAM run actually had 1-2″ as far north as Roann, Logansport, Lafayette to Covington with a merger even farther west, but I am not ready to make that the forecast yet.  It also pumped out up to 8″ of snow in southern Indiana, Winter Storm Watch/Warning criteria.

This is a very tricky system with 3 pieces coming together.  Stay tuned for tweaks to this forecast.


Update

December 27th, 2012 at 10:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

If we can really get some good clearing of these low clouds going, as some models indicate, then some freezing fog will be possible with frost overnight.  There is some question whether this will happen.  Will stick with partly to mostly cloudy wording & mention potential of some freezing fog in the forecast for tonight-early tomorrow morning.  Where skies have totally cleared in western Ohio, temperatures have dropped to as low as 12 degrees as of 10:47 p.m.!  We definitely have a blanket over us with the clouds!

GFS is now showing merger over our area with a 1-4″ snow & up to 6″ of snowfall in southeastern Indiana………………….NAM does not with much less in the way of snow for Friday night-Saturday morning, but shows 2-6″ in the southern part of Indiana.

There is also a tendency per model solutions for this thing to really blow up into a significant storm in the Northeast, or perhaps a Nor’Easter with heavy snowfall & wind.

Will keep 1″ or less wording for nearly entire area, except far north where 1-3″ wording will be used for that Friday night-Saturday morning time period.

 

 

 

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A Look at the Next Two Potentials of Snowfall

December 27th, 2012 at 4:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a bit of a complicated forecast for Friday night-Saturday.

There is a nice system of dynamic & frontal forcing producing accumulating snow to our northwest, despite lack of moisture.  Meanwhile, very, very active subtropical jet (been a big factor in all of the monster storms this season) is roaring through the southern Plains with deep Pacific moisture.  Additionally, deep low-level moisture is pooling in Texas & Louisiana & surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

The upper system in the polar jet & abundant moisture in the subtropical jet need to merge into our cold air to get a good snow up here, as the great dynamics for snow (even without much moisture) will tend to pull away from us.

The merger is expected to occur east of here, shunting the snowfall east & southeast of here.

Nonetheless, some snow is possible Friday night-Saturday morning, but if that merger happens more to our south/southwest than southeast it will be much more in the way of snowfall.

We need to keep an eye on a system with abundant moisture & dynamics for early next week.  This may bring some accumulating snow (at least minor).

 

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Final Storm Summary: 0.5 to 8.0″ Across the Viewing Area

December 27th, 2012 at 3:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

0.5-8.0″ fell across the area from the storm with wind gusts measured up to 45 mph.

Mesoscale banding of the snow made pretty variable localized amounts.  If you were under one of those bands for a while, you picked up much more.  Some of the heavy snow bands were only 5-8 miles wide, resulting in 3″ at one house & 6″ at another.

One particular band dumped 4.0″ from Covington to Williamsport & Attica to near West Point, Klondike & part of West Lafayette, while Shadeland & southwest Tippecanoe County received 2.5″

In Clinton County to Montgomery County, narrow band dumped 8.0″ at Crawfordsville & 8.0″ in the city of Frankfort to near Michigantown, while east of Clark’s Hill received 5.5″ & the southeast side of Frankfort to Kirklin reported around 6″.

Tipton proper reported 5.0″, but north of Atlanta, 7″ was reported, while northeast of Atlanta, spotter measured 5″.

 

 

 

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Complete, Final Summary Soon…….1-8″ of Snow Reported In the Viewing Area From the Storm

December 27th, 2012 at 12:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I have gone through my email Inbox & every single report & measurement on this storm & will have a complete summary on it soon.  The reports show anywhere from 1-8″ of snowfall from the storm in the viewing area.

There is a lot of air in the snow crystals with this snowfall.  You always get settling with any snowfall event after a while, but our 4.0″ at WLFI-TV melted down to just 0.23″ of liquid.  At Indianapolis International, the 7.3″ melted down to just 0.38″ of liquid.  Today, our 4.0″ has settled & compacted to 3.3″ at 12:45 p.m. measurement as the air pockets are squeezed.

The 8.0″ at Crawfordsville melted down to just 0.49″ of liquid.

 


Storm Summary & Preliminary Projection for Friday Night-Saturday A.M.

December 26th, 2012 at 11:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snowfall totals & measured peak wind gusts are below:

I have just enough confidence in the data to at least put out a snowfall projection map for Friday night-Saturday morning.  However, my confidence in the details regarding exact timing, system phasing or not phasing & solid totals is not overly high.

We will watch.

Right now it looks like most of the snow will be northwest of here with the good dynamics & nice frontal forcing.  Nice jet dynamics over frontagenetical forcing in the Snow Growth Zone (SGZ) usually makes nice, nice dendrite growth for flakes! (Frontagenetical forcing refers to the temperature contrast in the mid-level SGZ).  This could make some nice meso-scale banding in Nebraska & western Iowa with up to 7″ of snowfall in places (even with limited moisture). Then, the dynamics & frontal forcing currently appear to weaken some over us with most of it focused just to our north.  It also appears good merging of polar & subtropical jets may not occur until everything is east of here, thus cutting down on our totals.

Current GFS model does not have the merger occurring until everything is off to our east, but some snow here.

HOWEVER, If there is a good merger of the two jets & those dynamics hold on better, we may have a much more substantial event to talk about.

Will stick with wording of  “some minor snowfall accumulation”.

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Update

December 26th, 2012 at 5:53 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snow continues in parts of the area with minor additional accumulations.

That band in our western counties has been sitting there for a good 1.5 hours, though the snowfall intensity has decreased some.

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