I have recently had a few questions regarding my winter forecast & whether I want to change anything, given recently down-turn in El Nino. First of all, thank you for all of your questions always! I enjoy them!
Once the forecast is done, it is done. I will not be making any changes. I still like normal snowfall overall with slightly-above normal temperatures, overall, though.
Everything is playing out in the grand scheme of details. The timing is off a bit.
Went for cool, wet early fall, but the cool, wet weather is lasting longer than I thought. I figured once we got into October, it would turn WARM & dry out with even some 80s. Well, it looks like that will not happen until next week………….which is a few weeks later than I thought.
Solar output is higher than last winter, so I think even if there is no El Nino, some of the similar effects will exist. Persistent, enhanced area of convection via the MJO in the eastern Pacific will keep the southern U.S. wet & stormy. STILL thinking lots of snow for East Coast with a big Piedmont ice storm in the South & milder conditions in the northern Plains.
FALL: COOL, WET EARLY FALL, THEN DRIER & WARMER LATTER FALL………….
WINTER: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER WITH NORMAL SNOWFALL (ABOUT 21″)……
SPRING: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SPRING…………BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL
SUMMER: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL NEXT SUMMER……………
FALL 2013: WARM, DRY EARLY NEXT FALL (DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE), THEN WET & COOL LATE FALL……….
EL NINO: As of September 12, El Nino is weak in the Pacific with a 0.7 reading on a scale of 0 (neutral) to 3 (very strong El Nino)…………….(-3 would be very strong La Nina, -1.0 or 0.5 weak La Nina).
Forecast guidance suggests El Nino to increase in intensity to a weak event by December-January, then largely turn to neutral status by early next summer. Wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a hair stronger, but not anticipating a big event.
Lack of Arctic ice due to warmth & strong winds of incredibly strong polar vortex & the strong polar vortex bottling some of the Arctic air up will make this winter nothing extremely warm, but not really cold either. Snowfall will run normal, give strong subtropical jet interacting with some cold spells here. One icing event is likely (mixed with snow & sleet in February), but it does not look major.
Volcanic aerosols are not above normal & given polar vortex personality last year & right now, thinking NAO/AO will spend a lot of time in the neutral to positive phase (especially with surge in solar output).
1934-35 was a strong match for the upcoming fall-winter-spring-summer in terms Northern Hemisphere pattern & U.S. soil moisture pattern. 1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1940 all had hot, dry summers with rainfall relief in early to mid-August, but only 1934 saw the heat wave migrate westward pretty much stay just west of us mid- to late-August through September, just like now. Much higher soil moisture here developed by early September, while the Plains continued the same pattern as in summer (just like now).
1934-35 was not outstanding. It had normal to above-normal snowfall & above normal temperatures & below-normal precipitation.
I think what will bring us normal snowfall is the strong, moisture-charged subtropical jet reacting with our seasonably cold air. So, that is why I forecasted normal snowfall & two winter-storm watch/warning events.
Thinking the southwest U.S. mountains, southern Plains & mid-Atlantic & northeast U.S. could get pretty big snows. There will be several big Nor’easters in the northeast with one significant ice storm in the Piedmont & coastal Plain of the Carolinas, into the Appalachians & as far north as Virginia. It could be a really damaging ice storm. Arctic airmass eastern Ohio to the Northeast will support very impressive lake effect (perhaps some record lake effect snows) around Cleveland, Buffalo & Jamestown.
I think unseasonable snows may occur at low elevations in the Desert Southwest with perhaps a record 4-6″ snow for Tucson, even Albuquerque may see a BIG snow event. Flooding will be possible in southern California to Texas with snows in northern & central Texas to Oklahoma. I think there may be one event where a cold upper low brings wet snow to Dallas, Austin with perhaps flakes to San Antonio & Little Rock. The southern U.S. just looks wet with frequent rain & storms with a lot of chilly, gray days. Strong subtropical jet will support a higher-than-normal potential of severe weather events in the South, specifically on the Gulf Coast & on the Florida peninsula. Combine such moisture with cold air from all of the Northeast snow damming up in the Appalachians & you spell trouble for icing in the Appalachians, Piedmont & Coastal Plain (see above).