Warm Front Already Bulging Back North

April 16th, 2013 at 2:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 3:35 P.M. PER DOPPLER RADAR…………..

Teri in Lafayette has already had 1.67″ as of 4:07 p.m. & I measured 1.08″ here at WLFI as of 4:30 p.m.

The breadwinner so far has been Teri with 1.67″ & Romney a second at 1.34″.

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WARM FRONT BULGING NORTH, SEPARATING 50 FROM 80s……….RAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING (SO IMPROVEMENT IF YOU WANT TO GET OUTSIDE FOR A BIT)…………

Front moved through our area & south of here lastnight & this morning.  It moved southward enough to give us a nice morning with even some sun.

However, front is already prematurely working back north, socking us in rain & t’storms.  It is in the lower 80s in southern Ohio & southern Illinois & even areas near I-70 have been running around 70 degrees!  Even Mansfield, Ohio has 77 degrees!  So, front has not made much progress southward & that quick sinking to the south was short-lived.  That is not good news for us in regards to flooding rainfall.  It will just add more to our totals.

The entire viewing area is still on the cool side of the warm front right now, so no need to worry about severe threat, though there was a bit of pea-sized hail in a few places this morning with front sinking southward.

INCREASING RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT………………..RIVER FLOODING INFORMATION……………

So, I am upping total rainfall (Tuesday-Friday morning total) from 1-3″ to 2-4″ per recent trends. Current forecasts point towards a 17.1′ crest at Lafayette by Saturday, but I would not be surprised if it is more like 20.0′ by late weekend.  At 20′, water covers Stair Road just off Route 225 in northeast Tippecanoe County.  At this level Route 43 may close, some parts of Barton Beach Road floods & River Road around Wabash Valley Hospital floods, in addition to roads in Granville Bridge area.  Route 225 closes at this level, with extensive flooding of agricultural fields.  All parks in West Lafayette & Lafayette flood at 20.0′.

At Covington, current forecasts point to a 21.0′ crest by Monday, however, I would not be surprised to see it get to 24.0′.  At 24.0′, water has exceeded the threshold for overtopping on ag levees (23.0′), Williamsport & Sandhill Roads flood with the higher bottomlands submerged.  Not only are normally the lanes of river residences on South River Road south of Covington flooded, but if 24.0′ level is reached, basement flooding of up to 12 cottages occurs at Covington.

We will continue to watch this.  Other smaller streams & rivers will get high & may flood this week.

You can monitor flood stages & forecasts from expert hydrologists at the National Weather Service:

 http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ind

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=iwx

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ilx

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lot

ISOLATED & SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT TIMING…………..WINDY WEATHER…………….

This wave of showers & storms will pass today & we will see & bit of lull this evening as warm front continues to work northward.  In fact, temperatures will remain steady, then start to slowly rise tonight. 

However, re-developing scattered showers & storms will periodically pass overnight through tomorrow.  Tomorrow, isolated severe still looks likely with isolated large hail & brief EF0 tornado threat with warm front near area.

Rain will push north by Thursday morning.  Thursday looks dry, but squall line with severe threat will move in Thursday night.  Strong south winds Thursday may gust to 40 mph.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 04/16/13

April 16th, 2013 at 12:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry April 16, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Following the cold front that moved through the viewing area this morning, our winds have shifted northward. Those northerly winds will keep temperatures from climbing to the heights we saw yesterday; we’re more or less expecting highs in the upper 50s and low 60s throughout the region. Even after the initial line of rain moves east, we could see some additional isolated showers as the frontal boundary stalls just to our south. Temperatures will warm up tomorrow as a warm front flexes northward through the viewing area; temperatures will peak at the mid to low 70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up throughout the day as a result of the passing front. Some of these storms, especially during the late afternoon and evening, could produce some small hail and strong winds. While some of the storms may be a bit stronger than your run-of-the-mill thunderstorms on Wednesday, our best chance for any severe weather will be reserved for Thursday evening into early Friday. That’s when a cold front will carve its way through the warm moist air mass leftover from that warm front. The cooler dry air will drive all of that moisture into the upper atmosphere creating large convective thunderstorms. Compounding the potential severity of these storms will be a strong upper level jet that will further elevate those cloud tops. The main threats from these storms will the strong straight line winds that will accompany the leading edge of these storms that will develop across the cold front. Wind gusts could top 60 mph that night. Hail with a diameter larger than an inch will be a definite possibility as will a brief EF0 or EF1 tornado as there will likely be some rotation within this line of storms. After some lingering rain showers on Friday, we’ll be left with some clearer and cooler conditions this weekend.

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Information Regarding Rainfall & Scattered Severe Threat Through Thursday Night

April 15th, 2013 at 5:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We are on a nice little warm streak here after a chilly Friday & Saturday.

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Some showers have been passing through late Monday through Monday evening.  Additional scattered showers & a few t’storms will pass Monday night-early Tuesday.  Although no severe weather is expected there may be an isolated storm or two that does produce some pea or marble hail.

Most of the showers are now falling behind the front with elevated t’storms likely to develop in Illinois & Missouri & move our way Monday night-early Tuesday.

Front is nearly to Lafayette, Covington & Burlington to near Bunker Hill.  Behind it, it is cooling off & it looks to drop to 45-52 viewing area-wide tonight with brisk north to northeast winds developing.

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Front will stall to our south Tuesday.  Despite mostly cloudy skies, it appears most, if not all, of the the rainfall will stay just south of us Tuesday.  However, some scattered showers & t’showers will begin to migrate northward Tuesday evening.  Some scattered showers & t’storms are likely Tuesday night.  As warm front works northward Wednesday, scattered storms will exist along the front.  The potential exists for isolated large hail & an isolated, brief EF0 tornado along & just south of the warm front from any of these storms that can really pulse up.

The showers & t’storms will work northward & exit by Thursday.  Most of Thursday looks dry with partly cloudy skies, windy conditions & highs of 75-80.

Squall line of storms will pass Thursday night.  Given the potential of training of the storms, heavy, torrential rainfall is possible.  Scattered severe weather is likely with the line in the form of pockets of damaging straight-line wind, an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado or two & perhaps a bit of hail.

ABE

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I still like a general 1-3″ rainfall for the area now-Friday.  There is still some data suggesting 3-5″, but I am not ready to go that way yet.  We will monitor & up the totals if needed.

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Breezy, Spring-like Day with Some Showers Approaching (After Very Nice Sunday Afternoon & Evening!)

April 15th, 2013 at 2:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some showers are coming in from the west this p.m.

Some scattered showers & t’showers will be with us into the night.

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After lows only in the mid 50s, generally, this morning, we are nice in the 60s this afternoon.  Winds are strong out of the south up to 27 mph.

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These are the preliminary general 1-3″ rainfall totals expected by Friday:

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Outlook to Early May

April 15th, 2013 at 11:05 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

P.M. TODAY-TUESDAY MORNING………..

Wave of a few showers will pass P.M. today with a few scattered showers/t’showers into tonight & end early Tuesday morning.  Coverage will average around 40%.  No severe weather is expected.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT………..

After a few morning showers/t’showers Tuesday, the day looks largely dry.

Wave of showers & t’showers will pass Tuesday night-Wednesday-Wednesday night.  Isolated severe storms with hail are possible.  Coverage will run 40%, then increase to 60% & peak at 70% Wednesday evening-night.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING………..

A few widely-scattered showers/t’storms Thursday, but coverage looks to be only 30%.

Thursday evening looks dry.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY…………

By 9 p.m. Thursday evening, squall line of storms looks to run from Chicago to the Gulf Coast.  This looks to pass our area late Thursday evening-Thursday night with severe threat.  Pockets of damaging straight-line winds, isolated EF0-EF1 tornadoes & a couple hailers are possible.

I still like a total of 1-3″ of rainfall for the viewing area.  However, some data still suggests 3-5″.  We will continue to monitor this to see if we need to bump up the 1-3″ projection.

Dry slot will likely pass Friday morning with some sun, followed by low clouds pivoting in & falling temperatures (down into the 40s) & a few sprinkles/isolated showers Friday afternoon-evening.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY………

Depending on when the low clouds leave & winds calm, there is a chance of frost & freezing early Saturday morning & again early Sunday morning with lows of 28-32.

After temperatures falling into the 40s Friday, high temperatures will only reach 49-55 Saturday with sunshine & clouds.

SUNDAY……….

Sunday looks warmer with the start of a warming & drying pattern.  High will reach 58-63.

BEYOND SUNDAY TO EARLY MAY………..

Overall, regime looks drier & warmer April 22-29.  There  may be a bit of rain one day or two, but it does not look like much.

After this dry period, when conditions will support the beginning of corn planting, we may see a brief wet stretch with t’storms in early May.  This looks to be followed by drier, but briefly cooler weather.

 


Cam’s Weather Vlog for 04/15/13

April 15th, 2013 at 10:31 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry April 15, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Two different weather systems will produce as much as 3” – 5” of rainfall throughout the viewing area over the next week. The same low that drove temperatures into the 70s yesterday will bring a cold front across the region later today. The best chance for rain will arrive later this evening, though we could see some scattered rainfall this morning and afternoon as well. Afternoon temperatures will drop from the 68° we’ll see today, to 62° tomorrow thanks to the passage of that cold front. The frontal system will stall out over the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing additional chances for more scattered rain. The front will finally lift northward as a warmer and moister air mass positions itself over the state of Indiana by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will climb back into the low 70s making it possible for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms that afternoon. A second low pressure system will swing northward by Thursday afternoon pulling a cold front into our mild territory. With the high amount of convective activity and an relatively strong upper level jet, it’s safe to say that we could see some severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect a line of strong thunderstorms to form ahead of the front capable of producing strong straight line winds and golf ball sized hail. There could even be some rotation within the line, so right now we’re not counting out an isolated tornado. Once that front passes by Friday morning, things will calm down a bit. We’ll see some lingering rain showers on Friday with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s. The weekend will be slightly warmer with clearer skies; high temperatures fro both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s.

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After Above-Normal Rainfall, Some Drier Weather April 20-29

April 15th, 2013 at 1:04 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a wet weather pattern April 9-19, it does appear we will start to break out of the wetness for a while in late April.

In fact, after above-normal rainfall, precipitation is trending a bit below-normal April 20-29.

Normal precipitation April 20-29 is generally around 1.20″ in the viewing area.

This will give farmers at least some time to get a bit of corn planting (& other field work) done.

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2012 vs. 2013

April 14th, 2013 at 11:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

January-April 2013 has been much different than 2012.

Last January-April was dry & mild, but this year has been pretty wet, snowy & colder.  Overall, this was a pretty typical winter, but the spring has been colder-than-normal & now wetter-than-normal so far.

Below is a January-March comparison of both 2012 & 2013.

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Main reason for change is weaker Polar Vortex or Circumpolar Jet this year (strong jet that circles around Arctic Circle).  Also, a much higher amount of snow cover to our north & in Canada has made for a cooler winter & spring.

This late winter-spring, we have also had persistent blocking by an upper ridge over Greenland.


We Need to Closely Monitor Heavy Rain Threat for This Week

April 14th, 2013 at 3:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We need to keep a very close eye on the potential of heavy, heavy rainfall this week.  Multiple waves of showers & t’storms are possible with the heaviest rainfall likely Wednesday night-early Thursday.  One late Monday-early Tuesday, second round Tuesday night-Wednesday, then that main round Wednesday night-early Thursday.  Then, training of heavy storms may result in some torrential rainfall.

Some models are indicating a significant rainfall episode with 3-5″.  THIS IS NOT A FORECAST YET.  I am very confident of 1-3″ for a forecast total.

Where this 3-5″ band sets up, may result in substantial flooding.  If it sets up right across the upper Wabash area, then significant flooding may develop on the Wabash.

There are still questions on exactly where the heaviest rainfall axis will set up, but with wet soils & high rivers already we need to constantly monitor this.

Also, scattered severe threat still looks like a possibility Wednesday night-early Thursday with the heavy rain.  Isolated, brief tornado threat looks to accompany this severe threat.  We will watch the other two days to see if at least an isolated severe threat develops.  It does not look that way right now, but is possible.

Stay tuned for further updates.

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Warm Front Continuing to Lift Northward Changing Weather From February to April Since Yesterday

April 14th, 2013 at 1:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Wow, from late February weather to April weather within 24 hours, we had a high of just 48 yesterday, but it is currently 65 degrees as of 1:40 p.m.

We had a few isolated showers & sprinkles with the surface warm frontal passage this morning here at West Lafayette, now we are bathed in that south to southeast winds & sky-rocketing temperatures.  Skies are partly cloudy.

Warm front is lifting northward through viewing area & it is gradually clearing our far northeast areas.  So, temperatures vary from 57 to 72 across the viewing area from north & northeast to southwest.

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