Widespread Frost/Freeze Tonight……..Warm-Up to Start the Week

October 7th, 2012 at 10:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Lows of 28-32 are likely tonight viewing area-wide with frost.  Monday looks nice with sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  We’ll warm to 65-70 Tuesday after morning lows of 35-40.  Normal high temperature is around 68, so we will not reach near normal until Tuesday.


Below-Normal Temperature Pattern Continues: Coldest Early October High Temperature Since 1915

October 7th, 2012 at 8:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

COLDEST PRE-OCTOBER 10TH DAY SINCE OCTOBER 8, 1915…….

We still have not really broke out of the below-normal temperature regime that gave us the cooler-than-normal September.  This early October cold is pretty unprecedented.  It reached just 46.4 degrees at WLFI today (after 80 Thursday)…………that’s it.  Purdue crawled to 47.  There have been some other years so unusually cold in early October before the 10th.  This was record-breaking cool day for the date.  It just isn’t cold here, it is record cold over much of the central U.S. (after a record hot, dry summer).

Early October 1935 was chilly with 3 freezing nights of 30-31 before October 8 & highs of 52 on October 4 & 50s October 3-7.

1987 was chilly early with upper 40s before the 10th, but 1915 was even cooler.  The high temperature October 8, 1915 was 44 & 45 on October 6, 1873 at West Lafayette/Lafayette.

Record low temperatures were broken all over the Plains this morning with 15 at Sioux City, Iowa beating the old record of 23 degrees by an astounding 8 degrees!

HIGHS SUNDAY:

Logansport    46

WLFI-TV    46

Atlanta    47

Purdue University Airport    47

Kokomo    47

Burlington    48

Jamestown    48

Fowler    48

Indianapolis Executive Airport    48

Delphi    49

Frankfort    49

Attica    49

Crawfordsville    49

Grissom Air Reserve Base    49

Peru    49

Rochester    49

Covington    49

Indianapolis International Airport    51

Winamac    51

Rensselaer    51

Morocco    53

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THIS CHILL?  WHERE’S THE WARMTH?

So what is going on?  Why did this happen & where’s the 80s?

It was warm everywhere but here in late, late September-early October, but now nearly everyone is chilly (other than the western 1/4 of the U.S.).  The heat has been west in September & now way to the west.

It has been incredibly active with typhoons in the western Pacific & several of these have hit Alaska as intense storm systems (extratropical storm systems).  3 of these strong systems produced a profound deepening of the upper jet very early in the fall.  This very impressive buckling, combined with weakened polar vortex has allowed the cold to drop south.  Also, recently very extreme upper ridging has moved northward into Siberia & Alaska, further enhancing the southward movement of cold.

WHY SO COLD EARLY…………..CHANGES TO LONG-RANGE FORECAST?

So, why so cold early?  Why NOAA 180 to now colder-than-normal projection for most of U.S. in October after warmer than normal for most of U.S.?  Well, I really think the blame lies in 3 typhoons & now Siberian/Alaska upper ridging.  Also, am I going to change my fall outlook, too?  No.  Early October is definitely wrong in the outlook & I certainly did not see cold wave of this magnitude to impact early October.  I saw cooler-than-normal September, but not October.

The winter forecast is done is there is no going back.  I keep it status quo.  Analog data really had a strong correlation to pretty warm, dry weather in October & normal winter snowfall (21″) with bit above normal temperatures, so prefer to stick with that.

 


Update

October 6th, 2012 at 5:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Stratocumulus rotating in from the northwest & north may linger long enough tonight to keep our temperatures from bottoming out.  If it stays around long enough, rather than 31-34, we may see more like 34-37.  With a breeze & the stratocumulus, our frost potential is going down, but it will still be chilly.

 


First Freeze Information for 2012, Etc……..

October 6th, 2012 at 1:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some of you had your first freeze of the season this morning, but many of you have still not had your first freeze.  Below is information regarding where we are with the occurrence of 32 this autumn & when it normally occurs.  The Purdue Agronomy Farm & Purdue Airport both nudged down to 32 this morning, but the morning low was 32.6 at the station, making it a 33-degree morning.  We were 0.2 of a degree from 32.

I took freeze dates from all the COOP stations at these locations & nearby since 1970 to figure this data.  I went longer than a 30-year period to account for any recent later or earlier freeze dates in the past 30 years, so it is not skewed too much. I like figuring up longer freeze dates (for example over a 50- or 40-year period, as climate is measured in half centuries, even centuries, just not decades).  Some decade-long warm stretches skew data a lot.  If you take 1950-1980, your freeze dates are days earlier than 1980-2000, but if you average them all up, you get a nice, average freeze date.

On NOAA sites, it is confusing.  Midwest Climate Center has different freeze dates than NWS offices & the dates at the Indiana State Climate Office are different, too.  For example, Midwest Climate Center has first freeze date October 11-20 for Rensselaer, but NWS Chicago has it as September 30-October 7 & Indiana State Climate Office has the date at Rensselaer right on the line of October 1.

1981-2011 average first freeze dates vary for the Purdue Agronomy Farm between NWS Indianapolis, Midwest Climate Office & State Climate Office between October 9 (NWS), October 1-10 (Midwest Climate Center) & September 27-1 (State Climate Office).

So, to just prevent all the confusion, I just re-figured up all the dates, as there is no solid consensus between any state or federal weather/climate office.  Just want to keep it consistent & not confusing.

Skies are mostly sunny in the viewing area, but stratocumulus pivoting southward will tend to turn skies partly to mostly cloudy from north to south.  A few isolated sprinkles or a brief light shower may even be spit out from these this evening in places.


Rain Exiting (Rainfall Totals)……Areas of Frost Tonight…………

October 5th, 2012 at 9:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The rain is pulling way & temperatures are raw & chilly in the 39-43 range.  Skies are quickly clearing to our west.

Lows tonight will drop to 32-35. 

It may be mostly sunny Saturday morning, but skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy by afternoon with an isolated sprinkle/shower or two.  It will be breezy with highs in the 50s.


Showery (Isolated Rumble of Thunder) & Unseasonably Chilly

October 5th, 2012 at 1:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Today is the coldest early October afternoon since 1987.  As of 1:40 p.m., it is just 46 degrees after 50s this morning.  Our high today occurred at midnight with 57.

Showers (with potential of isolated rumble of thunder) continue to pass with anafrontal boundary slowly sinking southward well ahead of the rainfall.  Anafront is a surface front that has most of the rainfall behind the front, since the mid & upper winds are parallelling the surface front.

The heat & warmth has been everywhere but here in October (after record hot, dry weather in the Plains & West in September & cooler-than-normal & wetter-than-normal in the East), but now below-normal temperatures are overspreading the entire eastern half of the U.S. with record heat in the West.

So far, we have not been able to shake below-normal temperatures & wetter weather (except for yesterday), but model data is insistant of the upper ridge building eastward or at least more zonal flow developing after October 13.

In terms of rainfall, it looks above-normal until October 13, then drier.  We will see if October will indeed be warmer-than-normal & drier-than-normal as predicted.  So, far we are not there in our viewing area.  The warm, dry weather in October has been the greatest in the Plains from southern Canada to Texas to the West Coast, so far.


Showers & Some T’Storms Now Arriving In the Northwest

October 4th, 2012 at 10:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Showers & some t’storms are now moving into the northwestern 1/3 of the viewing area.  These will overspread the viewing area overnight & Friday looks showery, breezy & cool.  Most of the showers & t’storms are behind the actual surface front as mid & upper winds are paralleling the surface cold front now.  Highs will run 50-56.

Showers will gradually tapering tomorrow evening, but a few will hang on into the Friday Night Frenzy football games for some you.

It will clear out by early Saturday morning.  Although there may be a lot of sun Saturday morning, but it will turn partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers popping in the afternoon.  High will be in the 50s after morning lows in the 30s for tailgating.


Amanda Neill making the most of her opportunity

October 4th, 2012 at 9:07 pm by under Sports 18

Former McCutcheon Maverick Amanda Neill saw her first action for Purdue this past weekend, as she earned playing time in the Boilermaker rotation in wins over Northwestern and Illinois.

After not traveling with the Boilermakers earlier this year, Neill made sure Coach Shondell’s decision to give his freshman a chance would pay off. Neill came up big with 29 digs to help the Boilermakers improve to 4-0 in the Big Ten for the first time since 1990.

“My mom and dad were able to come to Friday night’s game and on Saturday night, I had planned to have 15 of my family members to come even if I wasn’t starting. So, when they showed up, it was a great surprise for them,” said Amanda Neill.

Neill’s 18 digs versus Northwestern were a team high. She served an ace in each of her first two career matches and also collected her first career kills against Northwestern.

There will undoubtedly be ups and downs for #7 as she works through her freshman year of college but she has already proven that she belongs on the court for the old gold and black.


Historic October 19-20, 1989 Snowstorm

October 4th, 2012 at 5:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 19-20, 1989 brought a historic early-season snowfall to our area.  Up to 10.5″ of heavy, wet, gloppy snow fell at Kokomo.  6.7″ fell at Lafayette with 6.0″ at the Purdue Agronomy Farm northwest of West Lafayette.  This was the most significant October snowfall event before the 30th (across central & north-central Indiana) since the historically cold October of 1869 & the great October 1805 snow (when Native Americans were “frightened on account of it” & “never seen the like” at the White River fort).  8″ fell at Fort Wayne with the 1989 event, 12″ was measured in October 1805, according to diary at the White River fort.

October 19-20, 1989 an “Inside Runner” storm brought unseasonably early & heavy snowfall to the region.  Even with very warm temperatures (Purdue Agronomy Farm was 84° on October 15…….just 3° from the record high of 87 set in 1938!), snowfall intensity was such that accumulations of up to 10.5″ occurred.  Snowfall water content topped 1.80″ in places, meaning that if this storm would have occurred in the winter with a colder ground, 18″ could have accumulated.

Gusty winds steady at 15-25 with gusts to 35 mph resulted lots of tree damage across the region due to the weight of the snow on the foliated trees.  Power outages were widespread.

Interestingly, less than a week after the snowstorm, temperatures were in the upper 70s to around 80!  For example, Delphi hit 79° on October 24 after 7.0″ snow & highs only near 33° on October 19!  After 10.5″ of snowfall, Kokomo had a high of 76° on October 24!

Purdue University Airport Observations:

AREA SNOWFALL TOTALS:

 

 


Warm, Summery Day! Front Will Slow Down A Lot………..Implications for Friday’s Forecast

October 4th, 2012 at 3:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a warm breezy to windy, summery day!

Front will become sort of parallell to upper flow tonight-tomorrow, result in a BIG slow-down of it progress southeast & eastward.  That said, will keep it showery well into tomorrow afternoon & CHILLY with brisk west/northwest winds to 22 mph & highs 50-55!

All this said, will have showers & some t’storms enter the forecast for tonight & then have it showery & cool tomorrow.  The evening looks fine.