Entire viewing area should be all snow by 5 p.m.
I have measured 0.5″ here at WLFI as of 4 p.m. with moderate snow falling & light east wind at 5-8 mph.
HUGE thank you to all of you area spotters! You are a key component of Weather Team 18! Thank you & keep your reports & totals coming! They are very valuable! -Chad
I increased totals just a hair given very impressive 850-700 mb frontagenical forcing seen. This is leading to very nice, efficient dendrite (flake) growth in the that critical Snow Growth Zone (SGZ). 2.5-7.5″ looks good from southwest to northeast. The really good frontagenical forcing will bring the most widespread & highest snowfall rates later this evening-early tonight.
I like a much larger area of 6″ & 7″ in our northern half with more like 4″ in Tippecanoe County. This is a step from from the 3.2-3.6″ just earlier with 3.3″ in Lafayette.
Winds are still on-track. I have had reports of 1-1.5″ of snow in the northern areas. It is snow/sleet at WLFI with grass very lightly dusted & 32.1 degrees.
I am monitoring radar trends & will dig into the new 18z model run over the next 1-2 hours. I will have another post at 3 p.m.
Some wind gusts to 43 mph are possible in the viewing area tonight. This will conincide with the snow, making for rough conditions. The worst of the wind will tend to be in that 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame.
As of 2:01 p.m., I have rain & sleet at WLFI with 34.0 degrees & an east wind up to 11 mph at times.
Currently, all snow is being reported for the entire northern half & western third of the viewing area.
Up to 1.2″ of snow has been reported in Fulton County & 1.1″ in Newton County. 3″ has been reported around Chicago with 5″ at Rockford & 5″ near DeKalb, Illinois.
1 p.m. Update………Mix Transitioning to All Snow……Worst of the Conditions Tonight with Snow & Strong WindsMarch 5th, 2013 at 12:58 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
A transition to all snow is underway in the viewing area. All snow is being reported in Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton & parts of Benton, Cass & White counties. Now Miami County is reporting all snow. Just saw Danville, Illinois has now gone to all snow with 1.5 mile visibility.
1″ has already been reported from Rochester area. 0.7″ has been estimated from Doppler radar in northern Newton & Jasper counties & 0.6″ in northern Pulaski County. Cass County Airport is reported light snow with 2.5 mile visibility now after mix 45 minutes ago. Grissom Air Reserve Base is now all light snow. Clinton County Airport has rain & 32 degrees (freezing rain).
At WLFI it is a sleet/rain mix with 34.0 degrees & east winds up to 14 mph.
On-going snowfall forecast looks good. I highly doubt the 6-10″ area-wide. I still like 2-7″ from southwest to northeast. I will make any tweaks if needed, but do not see the need for that right now.
Second graphic shows airport & spotter reports across the area.
it’s been mix of everything overnight and this morning. There have been very minor ice/sleet accumulations (mainly in the north).
On-going forecast looks good. No need for changes right now. Will make if needed this early afternoon.
New data caused me to only alter totals a tiny bit. This system is similar in many ways to a system in late February 1994 when 2-8″ snowfall fell across the viewing area with the heaviest totals in the northwest areas. I put a lot of stock in that analog system with its similar dynamics & superficial upper level & surface features.
There is also a lot of dry air in Texas from downsloping winds today. Record/near record heat (88 Dallas) with very to extremely low dew points occurred today with some places in Texas seeing 95 with dew points at only around 10! At least some of that dry air may eventually be pulled into the upper system tomorrow night (despite surface low in Kentucky). It may not shut the snow off, but it may cut the snow a hair. That, combined with relatively rapid movement prevented me from really raising totals much & also prevented totals of 10″ to even 12″ in the north & up to 6″ in say Montgomery & Tippecanoe counties or 7 or 8″ in White County.
So, 2-7″ will still do for the area, right now (with gusty winds tomorrow night of 40, even 43 mph in places with blowing & drifting snow [even with it being wet]). Be aware of the mix tonight-tomorrow morning of rain, freezing rain, sleet & snow. Minor ice/snow accumulations still look good with highest accumulations north of U.S. 24 as cold, dry ar bleeds in from the east while precipitation blossoms with low-level jet & forcing.
We will make changes, if needed. If I think we need to shift heavier snowfall totals southward, we will. Right now, this forecast looks good pending next new model runs early Tuesday morning & mid-morning Tuesday (06z & 12z).
Low-level jet is increasing & nosing into mid-Mississippi to Lower Ohio Valleys with blossoming scattered showers. Rain, freezing rain & sleet showers will increase in our area overnight & continue into tomorrow. Some minor ice accumulations are possible. Still looks like 0.1″ accumulation may be reached north of U.S. 24 with less than 0.1″ elsewhere.
On-going snowfall totals still look good. These amounts would accumulate by early, early Wednesday morning. Strong winds gusts of up to 43 mph in places in the viewing area will accompany the highest snowfall rates Tuesday night. Winds will be sustained at 20-25 mph for a while during the highest rates. Worst of the conditions still look to be 10 p.m.-2 a.m. per latest analysis with a changeover to all snow in the ENTIRE viewing area by 5 p.m. tomorrow.
I will have another update based on the latest data at 11:30 p.m.
Band of mix will lift northeastward out of the viewing area. New rain, freezing rain, sleet & perhaps some snow showers will blossom in the area tonight as +50 mph low-level jet noses in. A t’storm is possible as far north as southern Indiana.
Minor ice accumulations are possible, especially north of U.S. 24 overnight-Tuesday morning.