Outlook to Early May

April 15th, 2013 at 11:05 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

P.M. TODAY-TUESDAY MORNING………..

Wave of a few showers will pass P.M. today with a few scattered showers/t’showers into tonight & end early Tuesday morning.  Coverage will average around 40%.  No severe weather is expected.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT………..

After a few morning showers/t’showers Tuesday, the day looks largely dry.

Wave of showers & t’showers will pass Tuesday night-Wednesday-Wednesday night.  Isolated severe storms with hail are possible.  Coverage will run 40%, then increase to 60% & peak at 70% Wednesday evening-night.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING………..

A few widely-scattered showers/t’storms Thursday, but coverage looks to be only 30%.

Thursday evening looks dry.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY…………

By 9 p.m. Thursday evening, squall line of storms looks to run from Chicago to the Gulf Coast.  This looks to pass our area late Thursday evening-Thursday night with severe threat.  Pockets of damaging straight-line winds, isolated EF0-EF1 tornadoes & a couple hailers are possible.

I still like a total of 1-3″ of rainfall for the viewing area.  However, some data still suggests 3-5″.  We will continue to monitor this to see if we need to bump up the 1-3″ projection.

Dry slot will likely pass Friday morning with some sun, followed by low clouds pivoting in & falling temperatures (down into the 40s) & a few sprinkles/isolated showers Friday afternoon-evening.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY………

Depending on when the low clouds leave & winds calm, there is a chance of frost & freezing early Saturday morning & again early Sunday morning with lows of 28-32.

After temperatures falling into the 40s Friday, high temperatures will only reach 49-55 Saturday with sunshine & clouds.

SUNDAY……….

Sunday looks warmer with the start of a warming & drying pattern.  High will reach 58-63.

BEYOND SUNDAY TO EARLY MAY………..

Overall, regime looks drier & warmer April 22-29.  There  may be a bit of rain one day or two, but it does not look like much.

After this dry period, when conditions will support the beginning of corn planting, we may see a brief wet stretch with t’storms in early May.  This looks to be followed by drier, but briefly cooler weather.

 


Cam’s Weather Vlog for 04/15/13

April 15th, 2013 at 10:31 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry April 15, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Two different weather systems will produce as much as 3” – 5” of rainfall throughout the viewing area over the next week. The same low that drove temperatures into the 70s yesterday will bring a cold front across the region later today. The best chance for rain will arrive later this evening, though we could see some scattered rainfall this morning and afternoon as well. Afternoon temperatures will drop from the 68° we’ll see today, to 62° tomorrow thanks to the passage of that cold front. The frontal system will stall out over the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing additional chances for more scattered rain. The front will finally lift northward as a warmer and moister air mass positions itself over the state of Indiana by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will climb back into the low 70s making it possible for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms that afternoon. A second low pressure system will swing northward by Thursday afternoon pulling a cold front into our mild territory. With the high amount of convective activity and an relatively strong upper level jet, it’s safe to say that we could see some severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect a line of strong thunderstorms to form ahead of the front capable of producing strong straight line winds and golf ball sized hail. There could even be some rotation within the line, so right now we’re not counting out an isolated tornado. Once that front passes by Friday morning, things will calm down a bit. We’ll see some lingering rain showers on Friday with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s. The weekend will be slightly warmer with clearer skies; high temperatures fro both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s.

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After Above-Normal Rainfall, Some Drier Weather April 20-29

April 15th, 2013 at 1:04 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a wet weather pattern April 9-19, it does appear we will start to break out of the wetness for a while in late April.

In fact, after above-normal rainfall, precipitation is trending a bit below-normal April 20-29.

Normal precipitation April 20-29 is generally around 1.20″ in the viewing area.

This will give farmers at least some time to get a bit of corn planting (& other field work) done.

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2012 vs. 2013

April 14th, 2013 at 11:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

January-April 2013 has been much different than 2012.

Last January-April was dry & mild, but this year has been pretty wet, snowy & colder.  Overall, this was a pretty typical winter, but the spring has been colder-than-normal & now wetter-than-normal so far.

Below is a January-March comparison of both 2012 & 2013.

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Main reason for change is weaker Polar Vortex or Circumpolar Jet this year (strong jet that circles around Arctic Circle).  Also, a much higher amount of snow cover to our north & in Canada has made for a cooler winter & spring.

This late winter-spring, we have also had persistent blocking by an upper ridge over Greenland.


We Need to Closely Monitor Heavy Rain Threat for This Week

April 14th, 2013 at 3:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We need to keep a very close eye on the potential of heavy, heavy rainfall this week.  Multiple waves of showers & t’storms are possible with the heaviest rainfall likely Wednesday night-early Thursday.  One late Monday-early Tuesday, second round Tuesday night-Wednesday, then that main round Wednesday night-early Thursday.  Then, training of heavy storms may result in some torrential rainfall.

Some models are indicating a significant rainfall episode with 3-5″.  THIS IS NOT A FORECAST YET.  I am very confident of 1-3″ for a forecast total.

Where this 3-5″ band sets up, may result in substantial flooding.  If it sets up right across the upper Wabash area, then significant flooding may develop on the Wabash.

There are still questions on exactly where the heaviest rainfall axis will set up, but with wet soils & high rivers already we need to constantly monitor this.

Also, scattered severe threat still looks like a possibility Wednesday night-early Thursday with the heavy rain.  Isolated, brief tornado threat looks to accompany this severe threat.  We will watch the other two days to see if at least an isolated severe threat develops.  It does not look that way right now, but is possible.

Stay tuned for further updates.

A


Warm Front Continuing to Lift Northward Changing Weather From February to April Since Yesterday

April 14th, 2013 at 1:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Wow, from late February weather to April weather within 24 hours, we had a high of just 48 yesterday, but it is currently 65 degrees as of 1:40 p.m.

We had a few isolated showers & sprinkles with the surface warm frontal passage this morning here at West Lafayette, now we are bathed in that south to southeast winds & sky-rocketing temperatures.  Skies are partly cloudy.

Warm front is lifting northward through viewing area & it is gradually clearing our far northeast areas.  So, temperatures vary from 57 to 72 across the viewing area from north & northeast to southwest.

ADI Map 11


Warmer, Wetter & Stormy Again

April 13th, 2013 at 11:25 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Warm front is moving northward, bringing the clouds, steady temps & eventually an isolated shower or two early Sunday with 70s by afternoon (& strong south winds).

Scattered showers/storms are possible late Monday-Monday night-early Tuesday morning & again Tuesday night-early Wednesday.

However, the main rains look to pass Wednesday night-early Thursday with potential of line of storms with scattered severe threat.  We will watch to see if any severe threat can develop during the other waves of rainfall, but that does not look to be the case right now.

1-3″ of total rainfall still looks reasonable with 60s & 70s Monday-Thursday, but falling temperatures later Thursday & only 40s Friday (potential of 28-32 Friday night-early Saturday morning if the low stratus cloud deck can erode enough over our viewing area).

With the rain, wet soil & already high rivers some areas of flooding may develop again.


Wow! The Birds at Celery Bog Right Now!

April 13th, 2013 at 10:14 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The mosaic of marsh, wet, mesic & dry prairie, savanna, timbered swamp, buttonbush swamp & lowland to upland forest to even open water make Celery Bog Nature Area in West Lafayette prime area for bird life.  Despite the development surrounding it, specifically on the northwest corner, there is an array of migrating bird species & returning breeding birds at the bog now.

Regardless, just one day (walking a single lap around the preserve) last week, I spotted a staggering number of species.

This includes my first barn swallow citing of the season with the chattering tree swallows & a few neotropical migrants in the forest.

Blue-winged Teal

© Christopher L. Wood, Rothsay WMA, Minnesota

Adult male breeding

Northern Shoveler

© Bill Thompson, Anchorage , Alaska, May 2010

Male

Mallard

© Robinsegg, UT, February 2005

Male

Lesser Scaup

© Marie Read

Male

Bufflehead

© Marie Read

Male

Hooded Merganser

© Greg Schneider, November 2010

Adult male

Red-Breasted Merganser (Dead One – Victim of Plastic Shopping Bag Ingestion)

© Marie Read

Male

Ruddy Duck

© Cameron Rognan, CA, Fort Irwin, September 2007

Adult Male

American Coot

© Laura Erickson, NY, Ithaca, February 2009

Adults

Canada Goose

© Kevin Bolton, November 2008

Adult

Great Blue Heron

© Marie Read

Adult

Belted Kingfisher

© Nick Chill, CA, San Diego, February 2010

Female

Killdeer

© ashockenberry, Ontario, Canada

Adult

American Crow

Adult

Blue Jay

Adult

Tree Swallow

Adult male

Barn Swallow

Female

Eastern Phoebe

© Stephen Ramirez, TX, Clear Creek, January 2010

Adult

Tufted Titmouse

Adult

Eastern Bluebird

Adult male

Hermit Thrush

Adult

American Robin

Adult female

Yellow-rumped Warbler

Adult male (Myrtle)

Red-winged Blackbird

Adult male

Rusty Blackbird

Male breeding

Common Grackle

Adult male

Eastern Towhee & Chipping Sparrow

Eastern Towhee PhotoChipping Sparrow Photo

Field Sparrow (Heard) & Song Sparrow

Field Sparrow PhotoSong Sparrow Photo

Swamp Sparrow & Dark-eyed Junco

Swamp Sparrow PhotoDark-eyed Junco Photo

White-breasted Nuthatch

Adult female

Northern Flicker

Adult male Red-shafted

Mourning Dove

Mourning Dove Photo

 

 

 

 

 


More Heavy Rainfall Possible This Upcoming Week (Specifically On Another Wednesday-Wednesday Night)

April 13th, 2013 at 3:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Much Warmer, But Windy Sunday………

Sunday looks much, much warmer after warm front passes tonight-early Sunday morning with a couple isolated showers.  With strong south winds, highs will reach 68-75.

Warm Early & Mid Next Week, Cold End to Next Week………

After 60s & 70s (even some upper 70s possible south), next week will end sharply colder with highs about 20 degrees below normal.

Scattered Storms, Then Another Possible Squall Line……….

It appears a few showers/storms are possible Monday night-Tuesday morning & again Tuesday night-Wednesday.  A squall line is possible Wednesday night &/or Thursday.  Scattered severe weather is possible with that line.

We will watch for any other severe weather before then to see if it is a situation like last time when hailers blew up on the warm front as higher bulk shear overspread the area.

More Heavy Rainfall Possible……….

1-3″ of rainfall look likely from all of this with the heaviest rainfall likely Wednesday night.  Soils are wet & Wabash & Eel Rivers are already high.  Wabash just crested today at near 6.5′ above flood stage at Lafayette & will crest soon at Covington near 5′ above flod

Following the front, looks like another cloudy, gloomy cold snap with temperatures falling into the 40s later Thursday & highs on Friday only in the 40s.

To Freeze or Not Freeze………

Like this past time, freeze threat will exist, but that will be totally dependent upon how much cloud cover & wind hang on.  The higher the cloud cover & wind potential, the less potential of freeze.


First Two Severe Events of 2013

April 12th, 2013 at 4:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

January 29-30 Night-Time-Early Morning QLCS Squall Line

QLCS squall line raced through in the form of one short segment in our northwestern areas & then the main squall line over most of the viewing area January 29-30.  Timing of the lines occurred generally between 9 p.m. & 1:30 a.m.

Sporadic severe wind gusts accompanied the line as high as 65 mph.  One tornado velocity signature was seen in Carroll County, but rotation signature was largely mid-level & did not drop enough to low-level to warrant tornado warning per NWS.

Trees were reportedly felled in Montgomery County & Tipton counties with an aluminum shed in Carroll County damaged.  A trampoline was blown a considerable distance at this site, with limbs & small trees downed northeast of Flora.

Damaging gusts tended to occur where dew points reached 60-61, while much of the intense wind remained a few thousand feet off the ground in areas with dew points below 60 as buoyancy prevented enough updrafts to tap into strong winds close to the ground & bring them to the surface.

Think of an improperly inflated balloon.  No matter how much you try to force it upward, it never tends to rise high on its own (lower dew points, bit cooler air).  A properly inflated balloon will rise & tap into air currently well above it & float (dew point 60 or 61 & bit warmer air).  Same applies to dew points & their associated surface instability.

+80 mph low-level jet & influx of warmth & higher dew points caused the squall line to organize quickly with +115 mph winds at upper levels aiding in lift.  Additionally, record warmth preceded the QLCS squall line in the 60s & heavy rainfall accompanied the line & lasted for several hours behind it.  This resulted in 1-3″ of rainfall over the 2-day period with areas of minor flooding.

High-resolution model wind projections several hours prior to event:

Precision 18 Doppler radar wind data during event:

Below shows actual measured wind gusts & a few estimated gusts from spotters:

April 10-11, 2013:  Day-time Multi-Cellular Hailers & Night-time QLCS Squall Line

Severe weather event unfolded April 10-11 in two parts.  1-3.5″ of total rainfall fell during the two rounds, resulting in areas of flash flooding.  River flooding event occurred several days afterward with Wabash cresting 6-8′ above flood stage Lafayette to Covington.  Many other rivers & streams reaching either bankfull or over flood stage during & after event.

24-hour rainfall totals for these days are 7 a.m. to 7 a.m.

GFI

PART 1:

3 cluster of largely elevated multi-cellular storms passed through north of a surface warm front in the afternoon-evening of April 10.  A few were surface-based south of the warm front, where some gusty winds were able to make it to the surface & accompany the large hail.  The multiple rounds also trained over the same areas, leading to some locations receiving over 2″ of rainfall.  This led to areas of flash flooding particularly in northern Warren, northwest Clinton, southeastern Carroll.

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STORM REPORTS:

Trees Down – 1.5 Miles Northeast Kirklin

0.25″ Hail – South Lafayette

0.25″ Hail – Klondike

0.25″  Hail – Battle Ground

1.00″ Hail – Kokomo

1.00″ Hail – Converse

0.25″ – Greentown

0.50″ – East of Greentown

1.00″ Hail – 2 Miles Northeast of Dayton

1.00″ Hail – 2 Miles West of Darlington

0.88″ – Darlington

0.88″ Hail – South of Dayton

1.00″ Hail - East of Dayton

0.25″ Hail – Windfall

1.00″ Hail – New Ross

M51 mph Gust – Crawfordsville

E45 mph – Ladoga

0.50″ Hail – WLFI-TV

ABC157D

PART 2:

A QLCS squall line of t’storms raced through the area Wednesday night-early Thursday morning 12 a.m. to 3 a.m.  Several small bow & LEWPs formed in the line, mainly in the southeastern half of the viewing area.  There, it warmed up to near 61 ahead of the line.

One particular bow produced sporadic wind damage from south of Covington to Hillsboro to near Crawfordsville to near Rossville.  This bow developed an LEWP in the line that produced a low-level rotation signature, prompting a tornado warning for northeastern Montgomery, southeastern Tippecanoe, Clinton, southeastern Carroll & Howard counties.

This line dumped additional rainfall that resulted in a total of 1 to 3.5″ of rainfall across the viewing area.  Some roads were flooded by the rainfall in Carroll & Clinton counties.

2

STORM REPORTS:

Trees, limbs down near Hillsboro & farm shed damaged with 3 power poles leading

Many trees & some powerlines down near Mulberry

M64 mph:  Rossville WLFI Tower Site Weather Station

Several large limbs down south of tower site weather station

E58 mph:  6 ESE Covington

M52 mph:  Crawfordsville

M60 mph:  Frankfort

M45 mph:  Kokomo

M43 mph:  Kokomo Municipal Airport

M38 mph:  Burlington

M37 mph:  Grissom Air Reserve Base

M34 mph:  Pine Village

M33 mph:  Michigantown

EG

ADI Map 7

Damage pics from near Hillsboro in Fountain County (courtesy of Tyler Snider & Sam Harding):

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