Snow Staying to Our Southwest & South……….7″ Reported in Southern Missouri, 5″ in Arkansas with Heavy Snow Still Falling
With mostly clear skies we will drop into the teens, burning those daffodils even more. Meanwhile, heavy snow will fall in Arkansas to parts of Tennessee. Up to 7″ has come down in Missouri where it was 80-85 degrees not too long ago. Some places will get 8″ out of this clipper system. Just saw parts of northern Arkansas have had over 5″ of snow. Minor accumulations of up to 1″ may fall as far east as northern Alabama.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST……………
I increased high temperatures slightly tomorrow. After teens in the morning, it actually won’t be too bad in the afternoon with the potential of some high & mid clouds. This may dim the sun a hair at times. So, partly cloudy wording looks good for now. Winds look westerly at 5-10 mph.
Cirrus should increase & thicken Saturday with warmer highs well into the 40s. Dimming & slowly fading sun with a thickening cirrus & eventual thickening/lowering to altostratus will give way to overcast skies by later Saturday night. Virga will begin to develop by early, early Sunday morning. Light north to northeast winds at 5-10 mph will be with us most of Saturday, but those winds will pick up from the northeast in the evening at 10-15 mph. Saturday night to early, early Sunday morning, northeast winds will crank up to 15-25 mph.
OVERALL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING-TUESDAY FORECAST………..
Sampling of the System…………
Sampling of upper air is beginning in Pacific Northwest as upper energy that will eventually spin up Colorado low arrive into the Continental U.S. This should help model performance from here on out. Looking at the latest model consensus with a weight put on analog data, can start to piece together at least a rudimentary accumulation map here about 6-8 hours after last model output began to arrive. We’ll be in a much better position tomorrow to begin to pin details & more exact totals with more & more sampling of the upper air.
It will be really good when the actual surface low is sampled as it forms in Colorado. It is hard to put a large weight in models & crank out a forecast without analog when there is such a lack of upper air sampling in the Pacific. There are large voids of data that prevent models from really giving us a the best foundation for forecasting. Think of it as filling out NCAA brackets without knowing 70% of the teams’ records & any of their past performances. Once you get that, you can make better projections on who might win each game. If you can sample every player’s statistics & know what they do & what their abilities are, then your forecast should be much better.
Feel all snow is a good bet from this & feel everyone will get at least some snow, right now. Given very dry airmass ahead of the snow, precipitation will be all virga late Saturday night to early, early Sunday morning. As low-levels saturate, evaporative cooling will take over, holding temperature down to near 33 Sunday. It appears saturation, or snow making it to the ground would commence Sunday morning, beginning in our southwestern areas first. Despite strong March sun angle, thinking snowfall rate will be enough for fairly efficient accumulation Sunday morning-Sunday evening. Winds gusts will peak at around 30 mph Sunday.
Steady snows may be gone by Sunday night, but a flare up of snow showers will occur Monday (peak in the afternoon with peak heating with March sun angle) & even Tuesday. Some of the snow showers could put out brief bursts of moderate to heavy snow. Thinking 1″ or less of accumulation will do with highs near 34 or 35 on both days was upper low spins to our north & northeast, which will spin in waves of snow showers.