Cam’s Weather Vlog for 05/10/13

May 10th, 2013 at 12:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry May 10, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

We may catch some more isolated rainfall throughout the morning and early afternoon thanks to a slowly passing cold front. While the best chance for rain will occur south of Lafayette, some of our northern counties may catch an isolated shower or two. Aside form those rain chances, the remainder of the day looks dry and cloudy. As the cold front passes to our east this afternoon, our winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest, dropping temperatures into the mid 40s overnight following the high of 67° in Lafayette later today. We may see some of our cloud cover break up overnight, though we’ll begin tomorrow much like today as more clouds repopulate the skies above Central Indiana. There will be a brief period of sunshine before a second and weaker cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon. This front may bring a short lived period of light rainfall to the region, but its real effects will not be felt until it passes to our southeast. Our skies will clear and our temperatures will fall over the subsequent 48 hours. High pressure along with northerly winds will drop low temperatures into the mid to upper 30s for both Saturday and Sunday nights. It also appears that our afternoon high won’t fair much better come Sunday; expect the mercury to only rise as high as 57°. That will be the low point of the forecast considering our next warming trend will get underway on Monday with temperatures peaking in the low 60s; by Tuesday we’ll hit the mid 70s and Wednesday of next week will roll around with the low 80s. Our next chance for rain will come next Thursday as our next low sinks into the Midwest.


Rain & T’Storms

May 9th, 2013 at 9:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Trees are reportedly down with a few reports of some structural eastern Illinois & near Terre Haute.  A home was reportly damaged by near Riley, Indiana (Vigo County), according to the fire department there.  Based on type of damage there at Riley, sure looks like an EF0 tornado & I figure that will be confirmed by NWS.

Here, we look fine, but there are storms approaching our far southeastern counties.  Isolated severe threat will remain southeast of our viewing area through 12 a.m. from Indianapolis area down through Bloomington & Columbus, Indiana.

Otherwise, it is just rain with perhaps some thunder.  As of 10:25 p.m., I have measured exactly 0.50″ of rainfall at WLFI.

Some showers & thunder are possible overnight, but they will end tomorrow.

Highs will reach 68 tomorrow, but lake breeze front will drop the temperatures after 2:30 p.m. in Lafayette & sooner than that north of Lafayette.  Highs will only run near 61, then drop to the 50s in the northwest part of the viewing area.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with southwest winds at 10-15 mph early, turning westerly by noon, then northwesterly & northerly after 2 p.m. with gusts to 30 mph.  This will add a bit of chill to the air by evening!

This………after highs near 80 for many of you today!

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Update

May 9th, 2013 at 3:48 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

4:45 P.M. UPDATE:

Whether it be from the current band of rain/storms moving through or any of those storms east of St. Louis, the best potential of any isolated, sporadic gusts or small hail would be southeast of Lafayette.

ADI Map II

3:48 P.M. POST:

I still like just “couple/few severe storms embedded” this late afternoon-evening.  Main reason for lack of more widespread severe potential is that good Effective Bulk Shear for severe weather is BEHIND the line of storms & not with the storms, nor in front of them.

If this better shear overlaid the line (& there was a bit more instability), then severe threat would be more widespread.

Regardless, with some okay effective bulk shear & 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE, be aware that a severe gust/hail here or there will be possible as the line passes through.

There are pockets of 48-53 mph wind gusts in the line right now, which are moving northeastward toward our area.

We do need to watch any renegade scattered storms that can pop near St. Louis the center of the surface low.  There, shear is higher & there is some sun.  Even ith all the shear, however, they may not hold together up to our area well, as instability wanes this evening.  We will watch it.

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Update

May 9th, 2013 at 2:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Wave of scattered rain & some thunder is moving through now, but has exited our western counties as of 2:30 p.m.

Behind this, some dim sun is appearing with showers/storms in Illinois developing into a line.

This line will move in from the southwest late afternoon-evening with a few severe gusts possible & perhaps some hail.  Severe threat still does not look widespread, but quite localized.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 05/09/13

May 9th, 2013 at 12:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry May 9, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

We can all finally stop talking about the low now located over the eastern seaboard; it’s pretty much a non factor in our forecast at this point. However, we are tracking another low pressure system that’s ready to swing into the region later today. This low will carry a hefty amount of instability along with it, which could cause some of the storms we’re expecting later today to become severe in nature. The good amount of sunshine and surface heating we’ll receive this morning will play a major role in the development of these storms later today. We’ll first catch some popup showers and thunderstorms throughout the late morning and early afternoon hours, a few of which may produce some small hail, but the stronger storms will not develop until later. We’ll have a brief lull in the action as temperatures warm up to around 80° here in Lafayette. An organized band of thunderstorms will setup to our southwest during the late afternoon and move northeastward eventually arriving just after 7:00 pm .This line of thunderstorms will feed off of the instability at the surface while the upper level jet extends cloud tops within the line higher into the atmosphere. Some of the larger cells embedded in this line may produce large hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The threat for severe weather will linger until midnight at the latest, after that we’ll be left with some scattered rain with a few claps of thunder mixed in. The cold front will then pass tomorrow morning wit ha few additional rain showers as temperatures only warm up into the mid to upper 60s. A secondary and weaker cold front will arrive on Saturday possibly accompanied by a couple isolated rain showers though the most of us will remain dry. Afternoon highs that day should be near 65°. It’s Sunday that that the cool and dry air mass following the cold front will really settle in; afternoon temperatures throughout the viewing are will only top out in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows expected in the mid 30s.


Information Regarding T’Storm Potential Today-Tonight

May 9th, 2013 at 10:04 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is already 71 degrees as of 10:45 a.m. at WLFI.  Some scattered rain with perhaps some thunder will pass with 30-40% late this morning-early afternoon in the viewing area.

This will likely be followed by lull with some sun & warmth to 80 degrees.

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Scattered severe threat still looks to exist late afternoon-evening with shear supporting semi-organized to organized line/band of storms moving into the area from the southwest.

Scattered severe gusts & some hail cannot be ruled out with it as main threats.

After this passes, some showers & perhaps thunder will be possible overnight, before ending Friday morning.  Lows tonight will run near 58.

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Warm Day…………Showers & T’Storms On the Way (Few Potentially Severe)

May 8th, 2013 at 9:57 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a warm day with highs from near 80 to the lower 80s!  There were just a few isolated showers & t’storms with those cumulus towers bubbling up.

Our high at WLFI reached 80.3 degrees.  The warm spot was Monticello with 82.1 degrees.  The coolest spot was Atlanta with 78.0 degrees.

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Looks like a wave of at least some rain & perhaps some thunder late morning to early afternoon Thursday (30-40%).  A lull is likely for a while with some areas of sun & warm temperatures, followed by showers/storms in late afternoon-evening (60%) with a few storms being severe (wind/hail).  0.75-1″ of total rainfall with isolated +1″ amounts still looks good by Friday morning.

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Isolated Showers & T’Storms with Intense Heating Today (80 to Lower 80s)

May 8th, 2013 at 4:11 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few isolated showers & storms have popped in the viewing area.  That t’storm southwest of Crawfordsville dumped a very quick 0.63″ of rainfall between 3:47 & 4:07 p.m. near Lake Holiday!  However, a lot of the area is staying dry.

The heating today with temperatures from around 80 to lower 80s has led to the instability to pop a few of these (with that residual colder air aloft).

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Today & New Information On Thursday-Thursday Night T’Storm Forecast

May 8th, 2013 at 10:51 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY…….

As cumulus towers bubble up today with the heating & a bit of residual cold air aloft, isolated showers/t’storms are possible.

Temperatures are already in the 70s as of 11:15 a.m.  Highs today will run near 80 to the lower 80s.

ADI Map 25

TONIGHT-TOMORROW MIDDAY………

It appears that cluster of showers & some t’storms will evolve in Iowa & Missouri tonight.  Aided by nocturnal low-level jet, the rain will weaken in the morning over Illinois as low-level jet weakens & veers.  Nonetheless, at least some scattered rain & perhaps a bit of thunder may pass through our area Thursday morning-midday (30-40% coverage)

In the afternoon, it looks as if this scattered rain will move east & northeast, generally exit a good chunk of the area.  Meanwhile, surface low will be strengthening a bit over Illinois with approaching cold front.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING………

In this afternoon lulling, some sun may develop.  This, combined with warming temperatures & dew points surging into the 60-65 range, will support up to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE (surface instability or juice for storms).

Overall bulk shear & effective shear is not overly impressive, but enough (combined with projected CAPE) to support a potential line of t’storms.  The shear supports does support a bit more organized storm mode & structure compared to lastnight, yesterday & certainly the day before.

So, I would say that in the afternoon-evening period, we will need to watch to see just how much of a line of storms develops.  If it would happen to rain all day, let’s say, & it stay cooler that would be a limiting factor for the t’storms.  Nonetheless, I like the “scattered severe threat” scenario right now with wind/hail with that morning-midday “areas of rain……thunder” & “afternoon lull with some sun”, then “potential of organized squall line with wind/hail in late afternoon-evening”.

RAINFALL TOTALS……….

I like 0.75-1″ over entire area (this is slight deviation from 0.50-1″ projected lastnight), but there may be a few isolated places that get +1″ of rainfall.

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Warm with Showers & T’Storms On the Way

May 7th, 2013 at 9:47 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a nice, warm day with highs as high as 79 degrees.  Thorntown & Atlanta were the coolest with 73.1, while Morocco was the warmest at 78.6 degrees.

Mary Anne at Remington reached 76.4 degrees.

We hit 75.7 here at WLFI.

With towering cumulus, we had a few isolated showers this afternoon-evening.

Skies will remain partly cloudy.  Lows temperatures tonight will drop into the 50s.

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Wednesday will feature cumulus bubbling up (partly cloudy) with a couple isolated showers/t’storms.  Highs will run from the 70s to the lower 80s.

Highs Thursday will run in the 70s to lower 80s, too.

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In terms of Thursday, it appears that front will approach in the afternoon-evening with scattered showers & t’storms moving in.  These will tend to congregate near & on the front.

With it heating up & what now appears to be a bit more bulk shear, a few isolated severe cannot totally be ruled out (wind/hail).  Right now, it does not look widespread, however.

Models suggest pretty high precipitable water values of up to 1.5″ given near 80 with dew points in the 60s.

Even after the showers/t’storms pass, at least some scattered showers will linger Thursday night to early Friday morning.

That said, a 0.50-1″ rainfall seems more reasonable with isolated +1″ amounts by the time all is said & done Friday mid-morning.

We will continue to watch this & update.