Worst of the Weather Tuesday Night with Strong Winds & Snow

March 4th, 2013 at 1:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  We will continue to monitor the storm track.  Frequent updates will be made here through the evening & overnight hours, through Wednesday.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:  A little band of light snow/sleet & rain will pass for a bit.  Any accumulation would be very light, if any.  Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.  We are sitting at 36.4 right now, but may evaporatively cool to 32 as this little band passes.

TONIGHT:  Rain & some sleet with freezing rain will develop tonight.  Ice accumulations are possible, with best potential of decent icing north of U.S. 24.  East winds will pick up at 15-25 mph.  There may be minor accumulations between I-74 & U.S. 24, but that does not look too bad & less than 0.1″.  0.1″ accumulations look most likely north of U.S. 24.  Temperatures will run from 30 in the north to 35 in the south. 

TOMORROW:  Rain is possible tomorrow morning with freezing rain north of U.S. 24.  Up to 0.1″ of ice is possible there.  After midday, changeover to snow from northwest & north to southeast & south is likely through the afternoon.  Right now, looks like entire viewing area will be all snow by 5 p.m.  Winds may gust from the east in the morning up to 25 mph, but they will actually decrease in the afternoon with east winds at 10-15 mph, turning to the northeast.  Temperatures will fall from 32-36 in the late morning to 30-33 by late afternoon-evening.  In the evening, winds will RAPIDLY RAMP UP.  By 6-7 p.m. north-northeast winds will run 20-30 mph.

TOMORROW NIGHT:  Tomorrow night will get NASTY.  Widespread snow is likely with north-northeast winds becoming north at 25-40 mph.  The highest gusts will be centered around the highest snowfall rates, which will be in the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame with frequent gusts to 40 mph.  A few gusts to 43 mph are possible.  Wind will blow & drift snow & just plaster it against north-facing signs, poles, trees & north-facing sides of homes. 

By 6 a.m., winds will still be gusting to 38 mph, but snowfall will totally exit by 6 a.m.  Temperatures will drop to 25-27 degrees.  Total accumulations will run 2-7″ from southwest to northeast.  Went from 2-6″ to 2-7″ to account for an amount over 6″ along the Kankakee River & in northern Fulton County.

Storm will metamorphisize into significant Nor’Easter with up to 24″ of snow in Maryland & eastern West Virginia & the potential of 15″ in northern Virginia.  Parts of the D.C. area may see 12″.  Storm may bring up to 8-12″ of snow to Long Island to Massachuetts.

WEDNESDAY:  Wednesday just look mostly cloudy & cold with gusty north winds up to 36 mph.  Highs will run 31-35.  It may be wind with some continued blowing & drifting, but strong March sun angle will help to melt snow some, along with most areas seeing freezing mark or slightly above.

The snow won’t last too long.  Highs will be near 40 Thursday & near 50 Friday.


New Post Soon with Graphics

March 4th, 2013 at 1:17 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I will haved a new post soon with graphics. 

Newton & Jasper have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warning per NWS Chicago.

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Round Grove to Colfax to Tipton & northeastward.


Snowfall information

March 4th, 2013 at 11:10 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Forecast 1-4″ over the weekend. Based on latest data will add a hair more  given slightly more southerly track.  So 2-6″ rather than 1-4″ will do across the viewing area.  Up to 6″ looks likely morocco to Rochester.  Areas along and north of u.s. 24 look to be in that 4-6″ range.  B Rather than 2-2.5″ I like more like 3″ for Lafayette area with 2-2.5″ in the south. Winter storm watch is in effectfrom kentland to stock well to Burlington and northeastward. One thing that hthat does not to be altered in any way are gusty winds during the snow of up to 37 mph in the viewing at times.  Worst of the condition will be Tuesday night to very early wednesday morning. I will have updates through the day and night.  The track is extremely important. I will have graphics up by early afternoon.


March 3rd, 2013 at 6:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

On going forecast looks good at 1-4″ with 4″ amounts InThe north.  Some rain is possibleTuesday with even some freezing rain.  That freezing rain would be in the north though.  Snow for everyone is likely tuesday night.  Strong gusty winds with gusts to 37 mph are likely with the snow.


Update

March 3rd, 2013 at 11:33 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Just analyzed brand new data 1-4″ south to north total looks good still no reason to change.  New update later today.


Update on Snowfall Monday Night-Tuesday Night

March 3rd, 2013 at 9:55 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I like a sort of NAM-GFS model combo, but I lean MUCH, MUCH more heavily towards the NAM model.  That said, the GFS puts 1″ in the far south to over 6″ in our north.  NAM puts less than 1″ in our south & up to 2.5″ in our north.

I like a 1-4″ snowfall totall right now with 2-2.5″ in the Lafayette area & more like 4″ around Morocco, Rensselaer & Winamac & more like 1-1.5″ at Kingman, New Ross & Ladoga.

Changes are STILL POSSIBLE with this forecast.  If this system wobbles a bit, the 6-8″ totals could move southeastward.  In fact, it is looking like parts of Minnesota to Iowa & northwest Illinois could see 10-12″ in spots.


Update Regarding Monday Night-Tuesday Night Forecast

March 3rd, 2013 at 12:00 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I originally went for 1″ or less here Monday night-Tuesday with the heaviest snowfall in a band northwest to southwest & south of us.

It looks like now the heaviest snowfall will be west & northwest of us with 6-8″ in Iowa & parts of Illinois.  I doubt heaviest snowfall will extend south of us.  It will likely re-develop well east of us as system undergoes a rapid metamorphisis & intensification on the East Coast.

Here, I feel the need to go from 1″ or less to 1-4″ with the heaviest amounts most likely in the northern areas.

Some snow would likely fall Monday night, but may change to rain Tuesday for part of the area with snow Tuesday night.  The 1-4″ amount would be the final storm total.

If I need to alter this, I will, but I still do not agree with the model output of 5-10″ for our area.  That is just too high & does not match similar systems over the past 30 years.

The system is actually a strong Alberta Clipper (full of dynamics) that will eventually undergo that metamorphisis of energy transfer towards a developing Nor’Easter on the East Coast that may bring over 17″ of snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Alleghanies &/or Northeast.  This, after state records for snowfall were broken in February in Oklahoma & Missouri.  One town in Oklahoma set the new state record for snowfall in February with over 42″!


New info on mon night and tue shortly

March 2nd, 2013 at 11:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I originally went for 1″ or less for Monday night-Tuesday with heaviest totals to our south.

Looks like now the heaviest totals will occur to our west & northwest with up to 6-8″ in Iowa & western Illinois to even parts of central Illinois.

 


Mon night-tue new info

March 2nd, 2013 at 11:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

New post soon.


Monday night-tuesday

March 2nd, 2013 at 9:14 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some snow showers and flurries will continue in the viewing area today but the main accumulating snow will occur well south of our area. If there is any accumulation here it would be a dusting in places.

In terms of Monday night-Tuesday gfs model places heaviest band of 5-7″ in our area. I do not agree with this right now.  I prefer to get a few more varying model runs under my belt and an analog comparison before changing the forecast.  Confidence is growing on raising the 1″ or Less.

I will have a new update later today.