Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

2:30 P.M. Update

September 23rd, 2014 at 2:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a chilly start with heavy dew & some patchy fog, it is perfect with sunny skies!

Also, pollen levels have dropped.  They remain elevated, but have dropped from high levels recently due to rainfall.  Mold spore count remains high, however.

Thinking pollen will tend to rise toward the weekend, but should remain below the high range.

Tonight we will drop to 42-46 temperature-wise with some patchy fog.

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Latest analysis shows that we may stay completely dry until next Wednesday, a full 10 days of dry weather, the most since May 22-31.

This is great news for farmers, who are beginning the harvest & for anyone who wants to spend time outdoors!

I am working on the forecast & will have more on the next 7 days shortly & tonight at 5, 6 & 11 p.m.

 


Remembering the Worst Hail Storm In Logansport History (Other Counties Hit Very Hard, Too)…….Nice Day, Even Better Tuesday

September 22nd, 2014 at 9:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A severe weather outbreak of wind & large hail heavily damaged parts of the viewing area during the mid to late afternoon hours on this Thursday, September 21, 1950.  September was a day of clean-up with hundreds of millions of dollars in damage (inflation adjusted).

Route 25 was blocked by large amounts of large hail (up to 3″ in diameter in Carroll & Cass counties), as well as trees & power poles.   Full damage to crops on rich farm land outside of the city.  The earlier rain backed up sewers and flooded the High Lincoln and Ruey junior highs and Webster Grade.

All of Montgomery County was reportedly hit by the severe storms with Crawfordsville taking a big hit.  Trees were uprooted & snapped & power poles & lines felled.  Hail, in combination with the high winds shattered numerous windows.  A section of the Monon railroad was blocked by fallen trees & power lines.

Culver Hospital operated under emergency lighting provided by the fire department.  Water was shut off & at one point during the storm streets were under two feet of water.

Heavy damage from hail & wind occurred in Howard County, specifically north & west of Kokomo.  Windows were shattered in farmhouses & structural damage occurred to some homes & many barns.  Corn, soybean & tomato fields were stripped & laid flat by the wind & hail of the storms.  “200 telephone poles”  were toppled in a swath, while over 2″ of rainfall accompanied the severe wind & golfball- to baseball-sized hail stones.  Areas south of Kokomo to Tipton county reported just minor damage from the wind & hail.  Reportedly no hail occurred at Tipton, however.

Hail & wind damage also occurred at Deer Creek to Sycamore (Carroll to Howard counties).

Other heavy damage occurred in Miami County, especially near Bunker Hill.  The Kokomo Tribune reported:

“area just south of the Bunker Hill Air Base line practically all windows in homes and barns facing the north [were] shattered by the large hail stones. Mrs. Fred Buschbaum, Bunker Hill, [said] the windows in her home which aces north were shattered. The hailstones tipped through the window blinds and tore curtains into shreds. The [hailstones] as large as golf balls shot approximately 24 feet after they entered her home.  She took several from under a dining room table and placed them in a freeze.”

“A.N. Kelly, a neighbor of Mrs. Buschbaum, reported considerable damage to the shingles on his roof as well as having all windows facing north shattered.  His soybean crop was leveled with many pods completely shelled by the hail.  The windows in the home of Kenneth Douglas, who lives on the old Murphy farm next to Kelley were shattered.”

A tremendous, devastating hailstorm pummeled Logansport in this late Thursday afternoon.  Damage estimates amounted to $11 million (1950 dollars, which would be around $100 million in 2014 dollars!) as the large hail stones diameter (driven by severe winds) broke windows, damaged homes & buildings & broke out street lights.  It is considered one of the worst hailstorms on record for the city.

Reports of baseball-sized hail (2.75″ to even 3″ diameter) in other parts of Cass County were reported in newspapers.  Large hail was also reported from Anoka to Walton & Onward.  “Considerable damage” was reportedly done to Walton High School.  The smokestack was partially “ripped off” & water poured into classrooms & the gymnasium as structural damage let the 2″ rainfall event inside.  6″ of water was reportedly on the gym floor after the storm.

No tornadoes were confirmed in this outbreak, but lots of wind & large hail blasted the area.  It appears supercells gelling into multi-cell clusters in the warm sector of the storm system produced all of the damaging weather.

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After 64-70 today, we will drop to 39-45 tonight with some patchy shallow fog.  We are already at 46-55 as of 10:57 p.m.

After 69-74 tomorrow, well drop to 41-47 tomorrow night.

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Wednesday will be warmer at 74-79 with lows Wednesday night at 45-50.

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Longest Stretch of Dry Weather Since May

September 22nd, 2014 at 6:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This is more of what you would except in September, as it averages out to be on of the driest months of the year.

Looks as if we may fit together 9 consecutive days of dry weather (September 21-29).

The last time we saw 9 consecutive days without any rainfall was May 22-31!

Prior to this, we hadn’t been able to squeeze such a dry period in since September 1-11 of 2013!

We may also fit together 5 consecutive days of at least 80.  Last time we did this was a long stretch August 18-September 5, a 19-day stretch.

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4 P.M. Update

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The leaves are really starting to change color now!  The Sugar Maples in the Purdue Research Park as especially vivid!

What a perfect day!

This last Saturday was the warmest since September 5 at WLFI & the Ag Farm (82 & 83, respectively after 92 & 92 on September 5) & it appears we will equal that again late this week.  If current trends hold, we may even exceed 82.

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Looking now even out to October 20, the pattern looks like more of what you would expect in October.  The regime for a while has been cool & wet.  It will dry out & warm up for a change!

We do have the brief cold wave in early October & perhaps another one in mid-October, but the pattern is otherwise dominated by nice weather.  I do see that rain system to end September & begin October & perhaps one in mid-October.

In summary, there is nothing that points to extremely cool, record-breaking weather, nor anything that points to the near-record wetness we have experienced since August over a good chunk of the area.

 


Outlook to October 12

September 22nd, 2014 at 12:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With tremendous moisture in the northeast Pacific from decaying hurricanes (it has been an extremely active year there) & an incredibly robust monsoon this summer & remnant moisture from Orline, the Desert Southwest is continuing to receive historic flooding.

It is now more in far west Texas & New Mexico than Arizona, southeastern California, Nevada & Utah.

In fact, likely one of, if not the highest dew point every observed in the deserts of southeastern New Mexico was recorded a couple of days ago.  Carlsbad, New Mexico recorded an official dew point of 77.  At the time, the air temperature was 77 with tropical rainfall.

At Gaudalupe Pass, Texas, latest observation shows heavy rainfall & visibility of 0.25 miles.

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It looks completely dry & beautiful until at least September 29.

Below is raw model data (GFS model), but I believe it to be right with the temperature & sky trend.

However, Friday & Saturday may actually end up warmer than  81.

LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/22/2014  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29 CLIMO
 X/N  67| 45  75| 50  78| 52  80| 53  81| 56  81| 56  80| 55  77 50 73
 TMP  61| 47  67| 52  70| 54  72| 54  72| 57  72| 58  71| 57  68      
 DPT  45| 45  48| 47  50| 50  54| 51  55| 52  56| 53  56| 52  56      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| PC  PC      
 WND   6|  3   4|  3   5|  4   4|  2   6|  3   6|  4   5|  3   9      
 P12   3|  2   2|  5   7|  8   9|  8   9| 10  12| 14  19| 19  22999999
 P24    |      3|      7|      9|     14|     15|     19|     32   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   2|  0   0|  1   1|  2   1|  2   2|  5   7| 11  10      
 T24    |  2    |  2    |  1    |  3    |  3    |  7    | 15          
 PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0      
 PRS   1|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  1   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   1      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

It still looks like showers & t’storms are a good bet near the very end of the month/early, early October.

This may be followed by that burst of cooler air with a couple of days in the 50s with lows in the 30s with frost across the area.

After that, it looks like the return of 60s & 70s in a largely dry pattern.

We will continue to monitor.


Fourth Wettest August-September Period Since 1879…….Wettest September Since 2003

September 21st, 2014 at 12:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

As of September 21, 2014 ranks 4th wettest August-September period since 1879.  13.94″ has been measured at the Ag Farm since August 1.  1.74″ was measured from Saturday evening-night showers & t’storms.

The 5.63″ for September is the most since 2003 when 7.14″ fell during the month.  The “Year of the Flood”, 2003 was exceptionally wet June-September.

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Rainfall Totals

September 21st, 2014 at 11:04 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Despite the models backing off the rainfall greatly Friday-Saturday, the heavy, tropical rains did indeed fall over a good chunk of the area.  However, there were exceptions with some places only seeing 0.10-0.20″.  Looking at Doppler radar estimates, it appears a good chunk of the viewing area picked up at least 1″.

DMA Map III

 

 


…..Updates

September 20th, 2014 at 5:25 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

7:25 p.m.

Scattered showers & t’storms continue in the area.  They are not severe.

Additional scattered showers & t’storms are possible overnight-early Sunday morning.

Pretty widespread wind damage has occurred northwest, north & northeast of the viewing area, but here, there have been only 3 isolated reports of severe weather; two for wind, one for hail.

132DMA Map II

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6:30 p.m.

None of the storm look severe at the moment.  Frequent lightning, heavy rainfall & perhaps isolated pea hail in storm near Delphi, but gusts all look like they are in the 20-40 mph range, except gust to 45 mph possible in northern Carroll.

130DMA Map II

STORM REPORTS:

0.88″ Hail  Earl Park

1.00″  Hail  4 Miles Northeast of Fowler

E60 mph  4 Miles Northeast of Fowler

M62 mph  Demotte

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6:13 p.m.

This is the only storm that truly looks severe at the moment.  60 mph wind core coming into northwest Tippecanoe/far southwest White.

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5:59 p.m.

Severe t’storm with potential gust to 70 mph & 1″ hail is now around 231/65 & 231/18 intersections, moving east.

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Another severe t’storm is located around Oxford.  Gust to 60 mph & 0.50-1″ hail possible with it.  This is moving toward Montmorenci.

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5:41 p.m.

One storm looks truly severe & that is located between Goodland & Route 18.  Wind-driven 1″ hail & gust to 68 mph is possible.  This is headed toward area around U.S. 231/18 intersection & 231/65 interchange & point northward to just southeast of Remington.

A lot of wind damage being reported northwest & north of our area!  Lots of trees & power lines down with gusts reportedly up to 80 mph.

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5:37 p.m.

Once this initial wave of t’storms passes, that will not be it, there will be additional showers & t’storms into tonight.

However, it is this first wave that will tend to have the best potential of a few severe gusts &/or hail.

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5:27 p.m.

Severe T’Storm Warning continues for southern Jasper & Benton.

Gusts to 65 mph possible Benton & southern Jasper with isolated 1″ hail.

Newton you are in the clear.  Severe T’Storm Watch continues for Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Benton, White, Cass, Miami until 9 p.m.

The worst of the severe weather has been north & northwest of us (& more widespread), but I still like isolated damaging gusts &/or hail this evening in the ENTIRE area.

STORM REPORTS:

M62 mph  Demotte

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3 P.M. Update

September 20th, 2014 at 3:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Isolated t’storms are popping south of the viewing area, while line segments & clusters of showers & t’storms are forming northwest of the viewing area.

With time, t’storms will increase in Illinois & it is not out of the question that a watch will be issued there, which may cover a part of the viewing area.  SPC is considering it.

This evening-tonight, isolated damaging gust(s) &/or hail cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise it is a breezy, warm day!  In fact, it is the warmest day since the 92 on September 5!

1DMA Map II


Latest On Today-Sunday Forecast

September 20th, 2014 at 10:46 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few isolated to spotty showers & t’storms still cannot be ruled out for the afternoon, but the more widespread showers & t’storms will arrive this evening & then into tonight.

I went for 25% coverage this afternoon & 60% coverage tonight.

Isolated severe storms are possible with wind/hail threat.

Still looks like the best chance of more widespread severe is just northwest of us.

Highs today will run 80-85 with south-southwest winds to 28 mph.

Rainfall will exit Sunday morning, followed by clearing.  After 60s tonight, highs tomorrow will run near 70 with windy conditions.  West & northwest winds may gust to 32 mph.