Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Unseasonably Cool Again Today with a Few Spotty Showers/Drizzle Increasing

September 12th, 2014 at 2:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There is some sun in our northwestern counties, otherwise it is cloudy.  Over the past 40 minutes light rain showers & drizzle have begun to increase quite a bit in the area.  Drizzle/light showers are now running from Rochester to Logansport & Radnor to Lafayette to Linden to Clark’s Hill & near Mulberry, as well as in far northwestern Newton County.

Temperatures are unseasonably cool (normal high temperature is 77).  After a low of 48 this morning, it is just 59 as of 2:18 p.m.  Temperatures are running 54 to 64 across the viewing area, depending on the amount of sun that has appeared.  In today (& even yesterday) in Iowa & Wisconsin, it is the coolest day so early in the season since the cold snap of early September 1883!  Highs there are in the upper 40s to 50s.  The high of 54 at Madison, Wisconsin yesterday was the coolest high temperature so early in the season since the high of 53 in early September 1883 (we had an unseasonable frost similar to 1964 in early September 1883).

Scattered showers/drizzle are more numerous in Illinois to Iowa & Wisconsin.

This said, scattered showers/drizzle will tend to increase this evening into the overnight.  It will all will exit early Saturday morning.

Lows tonight will drop to around 48.

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 Saturday looks brighter & warmer with a cumulus-filled afternoon sky & highs of 63-67 with north winds at 10-15 mph.

After 37-45 Saturday night-Sunday morning with some patchy dense fog (not out of the question there could be isolated frost patches in lowest-lying, typically cold areas in Pulaski, Fulton, Cass counties), 65-70 looks good for Sunday with sunshine & some clouds.  Sunday winds look westerly at around 10 mph.

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Frost Advisories & Freeze Warnings are lined up from Iowa & Kansas to Washington!

This all reminds me of 2009 when there was an early frost/freeze northwest of here & accumulating snow fell in Pennsylvania in early-mid October. 

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Lowers & Highest Annual Temperatures

September 12th, 2014 at 10:08 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

West Lafayette annual lowest & highest temperatures since late 1879:

WEST LAF MINSWEST LAFAYETTE 1879-PRESENT


Latest Forecast for the Weekend & Early Next Week

September 11th, 2014 at 11:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is mostly cloudy to cloudy tonight with temperatures at 50-55.

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Friday, after 47-51 in the morning, highs will reach 63-67 with lots of clouds & some sun.  A few sprinkles/isolated showers are possible with best potential Friday evening-night to early Saturday morning.

Saturday night lows will run 49-53 with skies becoming partly cloudy Saturday & highs of 63-67.

With clearing skies, we could drop to 41-46 Saturday night-Sunday morning.

Sunday looks partly cloudy to mostly sunny with 64-69.

All three days will feature north-northeast winds at 5-15 mph.

A few showers are possible Monday.  Skies will turn mostly cloudy with highs around 70 after 46-52 in the morning.

Tuesday still looks dry & partly cloudy with highs of 69-73 after 48-53 in the morning.

 


October-Like Day……..Max Yearly Temperatures Since 1879

September 11th, 2014 at 3:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

High temperatures today occurred at midnight & since then, numbers have moved very little with this low stratus, sprinkles, isolated showers & patches of drizzle.

At 12 a.m. we were 67 at WLFI.  We hit our low of 55 at 11 a.m. & are currently sitting at 58 with a brisk north wind at 13 mph.

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Maximum year temperatures since 1879 (however, I did not include 1879, since data was late in the year).

WEST LAFAYETTE 1879-PRESENT


Flood Watch for Tippecanoe River Downstream of Oakdale Dam

September 11th, 2014 at 9:52 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
747 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...The National Weather Service at Indianapolis has issued a Flood
Watch for the following river in north central Indiana...

Tippecanoe River...

.Lowland flooding is possible along portions of the Tippecanoe River
downstream of Oakdale Dam in Carroll County. NIPSCO reported the flow
from Oakdale Dam had exceeded 9,000 cubic feet per second. High water
flow from Oakdale Dam may affect low lying areas along the river in
Carroll...White and Tippecanoe counties.

Prolonged rainfall of near 2 inches in North Central Indiana and in
excess of 2 inches to almost 3 inches in Northern Indiana on
Wednesday September 10...has caused the flows at Oakdale to become
elevated.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Boaters...recreational and agricultural interests should be alert to
high river levels. Monitor conditions until water levels decrease
significantly. Motorists should avoid any flooded roads. Turn
around...Do not drown. Keep children away from flooded areas.

For detailed flood information go to weather.gov/ind on the web. From
the blue menu bar on the left side of the page...click on rivers and
lakes.

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Flood Watch for
  the Tippecanoe River downstream of Oakdale Dam.
* At 725 AM Thursday the flow was...10925 cfs.
* Flood flow is 13,000 cfs.
* Lowland flooding possible with flows from Oakdale Dam between 9,000
  and 13,000 cubic feet per second. Low agricultural lands...river
  parks and a few local roads may flood along portions of the river.


Updates

September 10th, 2014 at 2:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

9:31 p.m.

DMA Map IIIDMA Map IV

No severe reports received here, but other areas are getting the severe weather tonight with warnings east, near & southwest of Indianapolis.

Here is a rotation signature in eastern Indiana:

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Broad rotation & gusts near 70 mph southwest of Indianapolis:

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Two bow apexes with gusts near 70 mph in southern Indiana around Bloomfield & 60 mph around Plainville:

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8:21 p.m.

Storms have exited.  there is lingering rain/isolated t’storms left south of U.S.24, but the torrential storms are now running from Muncie to Indianapolis to near Terre Haute.

Intense storms are running through the Indianapolis area.

They are gusty & putting out +3″ per hour rainfall rates.

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Check out the tornadic signature 40 miles southwest of Terre Haute:

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6:58 p.m.

Boone County Tornado Warning has been cancelled.

Bow is weakening as it moves into western Warren/Fountain counties, however line is still attached southwest of Danville & moving east/northeastward.

All this said, torrential rains & strong to severe, sporadic gusty winds are likely as this moves in.

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The line has seemed to break into two pieces for Attica & Lafayette area.

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6:40 p.m.

Tornado Warning for Boone County until 7:15 p.m.

Low-level circulation is located 5 miles southeast of New Ross.

Dual Pol does not show any sort of debri signature & rotation has not tightened really well yet, but it could very quickly, given the strong low-level winds & low LCLs.

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Strong storms with gusts of 45-55 mph are moving through southeast Miami & northeastern Howard counties.  Notice Severe T’Storm Warning for Huntington County to our northeast.

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Tightly-wound, well-organized low-level circulation clearly evident in Huntington County, Tornado Warning likely soon for that county, northeast of our viewing area.

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6 p.m.

Storm near Peru is putting out quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning.  It may have a gust of 40-50 mph with torrential rainfall.

Torrential rainfall is also moving through the southeastern half of Carroll County & into southern Montgomery County.

Band/line of storms is moving northeastward from Illinois.  Training torrential rainfall & sporadic severe threat will continue.

Rotation signature noted near Earl Park with characterisitc dog leg/LEWP shape.

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5:40 p.m.

Little LEWPs appear to be forming in the line over Illinois.  These are little s-shapes of higher potential of severe gusts/brief tornado.

Broad zone of tropical, saturated air lifted over area is creating corridor of torrential rainfall & isolated t’storms from Crawfordsville, through Lafayette to Logansport & Peru.

Rainfall total for the day at the station stands at 1.35″.  Over 2″ has fallen in rainfall-saturated White County.

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5:20 p.m.

New showers/storms are forming right over the area.  Some of the strong wind fields in lower levels are being pushed to the surface.  We just had a downpour with a gust to 39 mph from the south.

Squall line continues to move through Illinois & organize.  Wind cores of 50-60 mph likely developing in it.

Issue is lack of sun, but dynamics are strong & airmass is moist & tropical.  Low LCLs & strong low-level wind fields will keep isolated EFo-EF1 going.

Torrential rainfall may train over the area this evening.  Watch out for flash flooding.

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4:28 p.m.

SPC has put out Severe T’Storm Watch for White, Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Benton & Cass until 9 p.m. & a Tornado Watch for Tippecanoe, Montgomery, Fountain, Warren, Boone, Clinton, Carroll, Howard, Miami, Tipton until 9 p.m. for Illinois squall line.

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4:18 p.m.

RAINFALL TOTALS:

DMA Map II

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3:50 p.m.

We are beginning to get a break from all of the heavy rainfall/storms in the area this morning-afternoon & the developing line to our west & northwest.

Squall line continues to develop in Illinois.  Notice the orientation & how it favors training as it moves northeast & eastward.  Flash flooding threat is still quite high this evening with a continued thinking of 1.50-3.00″ of rainfall area-wide with isolated +3.00″ amounts TOTAL from this morning to tonight.

There isn’t much happening with the Tornado Watch in our east, but more is beginning to happen in Illinois.  A lot of cloud-to-ground lightning is appearing & some good wind cores are showing up in the line.  The strongest core is north of Springfield (+50 mph).

Sun is still a limiting factor, but there is just a few small holes that are pushing surface CAPE to 1500 J/kg there.  Also, it is a very moist, tropical airmass with good dynamics/unidirectional shear.  Though the shear is more one main direction at all levels, any LEWP in the line could produce an isolated, brief EF0-EF1 tornado or two.

The winds are gusty in general with recently gusts to 40 mph in parts of the area.

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3:18 p.m.

SPC considering secondary Tornado Watch.  This would be in Illinois & for a good chunk of the viewing area as line begins to develop in Illinois.

Wind fields in the lower atmosphere continue to be strong & favorable for sporadic severe gusts & an isolated, brief EFo-EF1 tornado or two.

Shear is still largely unidirectional, but even in a linear system (squall line) in this environment, LEWPs often form in the line & can produce the wind/isolated tornadoes.

Low LCLs & tropical airmass continues to support heavy rainfall & that sporadic severe potential.

If there was less rain & more sun & heating, wow this would be an outbreak given the parameters & humid, tropical airmass.

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Warnings for Howard & Tipton…………….Gust 65-70 mph possible.  There is a rotation signature taking shape near Atlanta & this is also where the strongest wind core is located.

Cloud-to-ground lightning is now appearing in central Illinois cells as they strengthen.  Meanwhile, CAPE/shear is enough for squall line to take shape in our eastern counties.  There is very little thunder or lightning, however in this line at the moment in our east.

Overall, unidirectional shear/good dynamics all support a line LEWPS (S-shaped appendages in the line) in our east &  line in Illinois.

Tornado Watch is in effect for our eastern areas, but I cannot rule out a secondary watch being issued in Illinois & perhaps part of our western areas.  This is all conditional & it is all nowcasting form here on out.  We shall see how this evolves.

Both lines are orienting strongly NE/SW & training, creating flash flooding issues.

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Severe T’Storm Warning NE Howard County

September 10th, 2014 at 1:51 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Shear/dynamics are strong, so a few severe gusts are making it down where bits of sun have appeared nearby.

NWS has Severe T’Storm warning for NE Howard for 60 mph gust.

Still watching Illinois as cold front approaches that area.  There are some holes in the clouds with localized surface CAPE to 1500 J/kg.

Will continue to monitor.  Still like wind/isolated EF0-EF1 tornado threat for the afternoon.  Though, it looks less likely for widespread wind, sporadic severe gusts are possible.

 


Latest Rainfall Totals & Outlook for the Afternoon

September 10th, 2014 at 10:56 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

12:32 p.m.

Some sun in Illinois & approaching cold front with still good shear/dynamics has Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watching severe potential, specifically isolated tornado threat for the afternoon.

As you see below, watch is uncertain, but is being monitored.

Issue is all of the rain around, but again, in Illinois surface is destablizing.

LCLs are low, airmass is loaded with water & tropical, but issue will be a bit more heating this afternoon.

This will be complete nowcasting for the afternoon-evening.

Image from SPC:

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10:45 a.m.

It is a gusty morning with rain & t’storms & a tropical airmass over the area.  This morning’s low at WLFI was 68 & right now it is 72 with a dew point of 71 with south-southwest winds at 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph.

Also, up to 1.38″ of rain has already fallen in parts of the area.

DMA Map II

Some gusts in the area have been as high as 35 mph.

Jim reported no power in Kentland.  NIPSCO reports 703 households in that area without power.  There are also numerous clusters of outages in Lake, Porter & LaPorte counties.

Looks like strong gusts made it to the ground in this area this morning with a line segment of storms.  The highest measured gust I found was 38 mph at Morocco.

Rain & embedded t’storms will continue to pass through for the next couple of hours, before we see it scatter & more breaks develop.

We will then watch the actual surface cold front for development of a narrow squall line later today.

Wind/isolated tornado threat still seems reasonable given dynamics/shear.

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1:26 A.M. Update

September 10th, 2014 at 1:23 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Surface low is approaching Kansas City from the southwest & should continue to move northeastward & strengthen pretty rapidly.  By the time it get to southeastern Wisconsin mid-morning, its surface pressure may be down to 990 mb.

After a wave of rain/t’storms here this morning (isolated severe storm of wind &/or hail possible), there still is potential for breaking in the rainfall.  It is still possible that a bit of sun may appear.

It also still appears that squall line will affect us afternoon-evening with wind & isolated tornado threat.

Models differ on length of break, whether bit of sun will appear (some have just solid rain/t’storms pretty much all day) & whether line will be just embedded in rain or it will be approaching with that break.

Wind fields looks strong at all levels in the viewing area.  They are less as you move towards Indianapolis.  LCLs are low & the lower atmosphere loaded with moisture.  1000-2000 J/kg of surface CAPE in tandem with deep trough, strengthening surface low & the afformentioned features should still support severe threat.

No matter which way you slice it:

1.  Between morning & tomorrow night between the two rounds, 1.50-3.00″ rainfall is still likely with an isolated+3.00″ amount possible.  Flash Flood Watch is up, per NWS, for most of the viewing area except White, Cass, Miami, Pulaski & Fulton.

2.  Isolated severe storm of wind &/or hail possible in the morning.

3.  Potential still exists for squall line of storms to produce widespread severe gusts & perhaps an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado or two in the 4 p.m.-10 p.m. time frame.

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Latest On Severe Weather & Heavy Rainfall Potential

September 9th, 2014 at 10:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

HEAVY RAINFALL…………….

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with remnant moisture from Hurricane Norbert will make for a very moisture-laden tropical airmass.  The entire lower atmosphere will be loaded with water tomorrow.

Looks like 1.50-3.00″ of rainfall area-wide with a few isolated +3″ amounts possible between late tonight-Wednesday morning & by the time it completely exits Wednesday night.

Given our moist to wet soils, flash flooding will easily occur.

NWS has the Flash Flood Watch for all counties in the viewing area except White, Cass, Miami, Pulaski & Fulton.

SEVERE………………..

Showers & t’storms will arrive late tonight-tomorrow morning.  With this, I cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with wind &/or hail being the main threat.

Overall with the system……………..there is a question of how much of a break there will be between the morning showers/t’storms & the main wave/squall line in the afternoon-evening.  Some data wants to sort of mold them together or at least make the break rather short.

Forcing/dynamics with this strong fall-like system still look impressive.  As always, the magnitude of the severe weather is dependent upon how unstable it can get.  However, even if it does not get overly unstable from too much rain/cloud cover around tomorrow, dynamics & very moist airmass with highs dew points around 70 will still make for an afternoon-evening squall line of damaging winds & perhaps an isolated brief EF0-EF1 tornado or two.

If there is just a lot of rainfall around through the day, it may end up being either a very narrow break in the rain before the squall line or the squall line embedded in the rain.  The strong low-level jet, very low LCLs (cloud bases) & tropical airmass/water-loading would still make for that wind/isolated tornado threat.  If it were hot, steamy & mostly sunny in front of the line, sure it would be a heck of an outbreak, but I still think widespread wind/iso. torn. threat is very reasonable.

NAM model is aggressive with lots of clouds & lots of rain/storms tomorrow, but still seems to bring narrow QLCS squall line with surface CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

From 2500-5000′, flow at time of squall line passage is forecast at about 58 mph with 65 mph mid-level flow per NAM model.