Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Fog Deck Moving In From the West, But Sun In Southern Illinois

December 12th, 2014 at 12:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Trapped under “Dirty High” centered over far southwestern Indiana, with southwest winds, dense fog deck from Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma & Texas has moved eastward.  In parts of our area, visibility is down to 0.25 mile.

Even with a brisk wind, this inversion is so strong is basically trapped the stratus all the way down to ground level.

Recently, a very large hole has developed in the stratus/fog in eastern Missouri/southern Illinois as some downsloping from the Ozarks has scoured it out.  Also little upper low in Texas/Arkansas has led to a perturbation of mixing downstream, which has helped mix out some the fog/stratus in that area, too.

Hopefully, a domino effect will take place & stratus/fog will get chewed up into our area.  I am hopeful of that, but the model data says otherwise.

Temperatures will struggle today, unless we can get the sun out.  It is only 32 at 12:36 p.m. at the station.


Ugh……….The Fog/Stratus Deck May Hang On For Good for the Afternoon

December 12th, 2014 at 10:13 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a frosty morning with fog.  Fog/low cloud deck is found in the western half, while the eastern half has fog, but sun.

Latest forecast soundings show that the low stratus deck is moving eastward from Illinois & overspreading the area.  If latest forecast soundings verify, it may lock in for the day.

If this is the case, we will see no sun this afternoon with temperatures struggling to 40.

I am hopeful of some sun, but not optimistic, seeing low-level inversion trapping fog/stratus deck.  Keep your fingers crossed!

It may be another sun-bust forecast for the afternoon.

It definitely looks mostly cloudy to cloudy for the entire weekend, but it will be warmer.


Frosty Start to Friday

December 12th, 2014 at 12:38 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Here, it will be a seasonably cold, frosty night with some fog & lows of 20-25.

A good amount of sunshine is likely Friday morning-afternoon, but low clouds will likely begin to roll back in from the west & southwest by later in the afternoon.  High of 40-46 are likely.  With solid overcast, lows of 35-39 are likely Friday night.

Saturday may be rather gray, but highs will run 47-52 & low temperatures will drop to just 42-45 Saturday night.

Out west, major Pacific system(s) continue to push eastward & northeastward.

QLCS is making it’s way toward southern California as very strong storm system is producing highly-sheared environment with impressive forcing.  Despite lack of CAPE, the dynamics should still bring a few severe gusts & isolated tornadoes.  Flooding rains & general non-t’storm 40-50 mph gusts are also likely overnight across southern California.

Recently, meso-circulations or tornadic circulations have already been noted in rather low-topped QLCS with approach toward the coast.

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Interesting System(s) On West Coast……..The Effects Here

December 11th, 2014 at 2:47 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Very interesting system(s) on West Coast today.

Pineapple Express moisture plume, with origins near Hawaii, is dumping flooding rainfall on central California.  This flooding rainfall will move into southern California tonight, where the potential exists for an embedded QLCS-type squall line/line segments in the extremely sheared, marginally unstable environment with surface CAPE to perhaps 500 J/kg.  High wind gusts even outside of any t’storms are possible to 60 mph.  Thus, High Wind Warning are in effect over a good chunk of central & southern California.

A few convective severe gusts &/or an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado or two are possible in the mentioned QLCS line/band.

Meanwhile, very strong surface low will move through Oregon & Washington tonight with some gusts of hurricane force, while in the dry slot of the system, with sun & cold pocket overspreading that clearing, low-topped supercells with isolated hail/wind/tornado(es) is possible today.  Very strong shear is also present.

The Washington/Oregon storm will move into Canada in the branch of the polar jet & weaken, while the California surface low will be embedded in the subtropical jet & weaken over the Rockies, while dumping most of its precipitation.

We will get the leftover of this system as a weak, quick-moving upper low Monday night-Tuesday.  This will quickly spin through with a few scattered showers.

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Some Sunshine Today!

December 11th, 2014 at 1:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With dry air mixing in, partly to mostly cloudy skies will do today, rather than a solid, all-day overcast.  However, it is pretty solid stratus overcast from Manitoba to Texas under stretched-out surface high trapping low level moisture.

The dry air bleeding in around the exiting Nor’Easter is helping to mix out some of the cloudiness here.

Tonight, I still think it is possible that we go mostly clear.  That said, frosty conditions, haze/light fog & low to mid 20s are possible.

Tomorrow still could be the brightest day of the next 7, as long as the low stratus west of our area doesn’t get in here sooner than expected.

Partly cloudy skies & 42-46 seems reasonable tomorrow.

Weekend will be dominated by low clouds & holes in the overcast here & there.  Boy, if we could have sunny days, we could easily surge to the 60-62 range, but the overcast will keep it at 50-55.

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Latest Outlook to Christmas

December 10th, 2014 at 11:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Where skies have cleared, temperatures are already in the 20s.  Elsewhere, they are closer to 32.  Lows tonight will vary from near 22 where it stays clear the longest to 29 where cloudiness dominates.

Overnight, areas of clearing are possible, but thought is that more of the low stratus will come back in from Wisconsin & Illinois.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will do for tomorrow with highs of 37-43.

Friday still looks like it may be the brightest of the next 5-7 days with sunshine & scattered clouds.  Highs of 42-46 are likely after a frosty start of light fog & mostly clear skies with lower to middle 20s.

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Low stratus with occasional holes in the overcast will be the regime Saturday-Monday.  Winds will be southerly with highs of 50-55 & lows in the 40s, however.  A few scattered showers are possible Monday night-Tuesday morning with highs in the 40s Tuesday.

Looks like a lot of clouds Wednesday with highs of 36-41.

However, there are signs we may actually turn mostly sunny next Thursday with highs in the 40s, though it may cloud up next Friday p.m.

It will turn quite a bit colder before Christmas & with that, there are two system to monitor in the 21/22-23/24 period at the moment.  Should they track northward enough, we may have snowfall.

At the moment, 20s look to dominate Christmas with temperatures in the morning of 10-15.  It looks dry after potential snowfall prior.

 


Lots of Low Clouds In the Forecast Right Into Next Week (Friday Looking Brightest), But It Will Warm Up!

December 10th, 2014 at 4:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Widespread stratus deck is trapped under the sinking air of the “Dirty High” over Wisconsin.

Now, there is dry air bleeding in from the northeast, largely in response to Nor’Easter & the dry air it is pulling off the land-locked Canadian Shield.  Also, the sinking air associated on the edge of the Nor’Easter is enough to mix the clouds out in parts of Ontario & Quebec.

This present a bit of forecasting quandry in regards to whether we will completely clear the stratus out tonight.  Indeed, there is a tongue of dry air popping the sun out in our northeastern counties & poking a few holes in the stratus in our north, but as the surface high migrates southeastward, some of the thicker low stratus in Iowa, Minnesota & Illinois may tend to migrate back in.

That all said, I went with lows in the 26-29 range tonight with “mostly cloudy” skies.  If we completely clear it out, it would turn frosty with 20-23.

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Tomorrow, looks like up to 50% relative humidity in the 5000′ layer tomorrow & 70-90% relative humidity in the 2500′ layer.  So, I am sticking with a partly to mostly cloudy wording.  I hope more for the partly cloudy though!

37-43 highs tomorrow look good.

Relative humidity in the 2500-5000′ layer drops to 5% or less tomorrow night.  This means mostly clear skies with light winds, which means frosty conditions with light fog & lows of 22-26.

Friday definitely look partly cloudy (looks like brightest day of next 5), but low stratus deck may roll in Friday night & be with us through Monday with only a few breaks at times!

Regardless, highs of 50-55 are likely Saturday-Monday, but the low clouds & southerly breeze will keep the nights in the 40s!


The Dominos Began Falling Toward Historic Arctic Outbreak On This Date In 1989

December 9th, 2014 at 10:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

On this date in 1989 the remnants of Supertyphoon had merged with a strong storm system to produce a superstorm.  Winds gusted to 75 mph in Anchorage & a storm surge occurred on the southern & southeastern Alaskan coasts.

So strong was this superstorm, that a very strong cold front reached the Hawaiian Islands from it & caused a strong winds.  These winds caused a massive power outage that affected most of Hawaii’s Big Island.

This superstorm, with strong upper ridging over Greenland & northeastern Canada, led to historic Arctic outbreak in the Eastern U.S.

Unprecedented temperatures & accumulating snowfall as far south as northern Florida (AT CHRISTMAS!) made this outbreak memorable.

In our viewing area, temperatures below zero occurred every day for nearly 2 weeks!  12 consecutive days at West Lafayette were below zero, including multiple mornings at -20 & lower.

Temperatures dropped to -36 in Nebraska!

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Very strong Arctic surface high was over middle part of the U.S. mid- to late-December.

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Spotty Showers Bubbling Up

December 9th, 2014 at 3:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With cold air aloft, spotty rain showers continue to bubble up.  Given 37-41 at the surface, most of the flakes are currently melting before they make it to the ground.  However, as we cool this evening, a few rain/snow, then snow showers will be possible before ending tonight.

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Change to Colder Pattern On the Horizon (With Snow)

December 9th, 2014 at 3:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Mild & rather dry regime looks to dominate until just before Christmas, then I think a colder pattern with snow potential will settle in.

In fact, we may have highs only in the 20s with lows around 10-15 around Christmas.

In terms of snowfall, potential will begin to increase around/after December 23.

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