Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Rollercoaster of a Forecast Sunday-Early April

March 21st, 2015 at 11:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is an up & down forecast with a nice warm-up ahead, but not before sharp cool-down with even wet snow.  However, there are signs of a brief, sharp cool-down late week before the temperature surges upward rapidly.  Get ready for a typically-wild March temperature ride for the next 7 days!

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT………….

Sunday looks bright with mostly sunny skies & highs of 44-51 with east-northeast winds at 10-20 mph.  This, after mostly clear skies & morning lows at 25-30 with east-northeast winds at 5-10 mph.  Clouds will increase & thicken tomorrow night with lows of 27-32.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT………..

As for Monday, skies look mostly cloudy with east to east-northeast, then northerly winds at 10-20 mph.  A wave of some wet snow is likely morning-midday.  The grass & car tops & roofs may be whitened.

There are some indications that data may be pushing 1-3″ band into our area.  We need to monitor this.  Highs will only run 37-42.

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Skies may clear some Monday night with lows of 27-30 with north to then northeast & east-northeast winds at 10 mph.  However, it appears that the clearing of low clouds will be replaced with rapidly-increasing high & mid clouds.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT………….

Skies may be cloudy by Tuesday morning.  Rain will rapidly develop over the area Tuesday mid- to late-morning.  It is not completely out of the question that it may begin as a brief period of freezing rain north of U.S. 24.  This would only last an hour or two, though.

It then looks like a large arc of rain all over the viewing area through the afternoon-evening as a warm front lift northward.  Temperatures will warm into the 43-50 range by evening as winds become strong from the east-southeast, then southeast at 20-30 mph.

Temperatures will rise all Tuesday night.  In fact, by late Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning, readings may be 56-63 with howling south winds at 25-40 mph.  Rain & t’storms will pass through the area with a band of rain & t’storms (leftovers of severe weather from Illinois to Missouri earlier) will likely pass in the 4-6 a.m. time frame.

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WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT……….

The rain will come to an abrupt end by 7 a.m. Wednesday morning with winds shifting from south to southwest.  Totals Tuesday-Wednesday morning may run 0.60-1.20″.

As for Wednesday, it will be windy with southwest winds, turning west-southwest, then west during the day at 25-40 mph.  It looks windy morning-evening with a sky of cumulus clouds with a couple of spokes of spotty showers & t’storms bubbling up as the low pivots through southern Wisconsin to central Michigan.

Rain & even some t’storms may train over southern & east-central Indiana, however.

Our highs may get to 65-70.

Winds will turn to the northwest Wednesday night as some low clouds pivot in.  It will still be windy at 20-35 mph with lows of 35-40.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY………..

Thursday & Friday look cool with windy conditions (northwest to north-northwest gusts to 33 mph) with lots of cumulus/stratocumulus bringing mostly cloudy skies.  A few spotty rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out during both afternoons with all of the cold air aloft with low freezing levels.

After 43-47 Thursday & 40-45 Friday with lows in the 20s, we may rapidly warm to 53-59 by Saturday.

BEYOND SATURDAY……….

Pattern will tend to warm/moderate with some rain as we end March with temperatures oscillations between 50s & 60s.

70s may usher in April (perhaps even 80 for a few places!).

 

 

 


What a Nice Saturday! Cooler Sunday & Cold Monday with Some Snow Showers Possible

March 21st, 2015 at 2:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a breezy, but nice Saturday with mostly sunny skies!  However, along & north of the lake breeze front, temperatures are cooling & there are stratocumulus/cumulus clouds.

DMA Map II

Tonight, temperatures will drop to 25-31, followed by mostly sunny skies & 45-51 Sunday.  East-northeast winds may run 10-20 mph.

Monday looks cold with 37-43 with a wave of snow showers & temperatures around 32.

It looks as if the snow showers will pass through between 8 a.m. & 1 p.m.

The grass & car/roof tops may be whitened.  There will likely be a 1-3″ band near our area.  The latest data suggests that it will stay west of us.  However, if it does show & trend towards shifting into our area, I’ll have the latest here on the blog.

East-northeast wind at 10 mph will turn northwest & increase to 15-30 mph in the afternoon.  Some partial clearing is possible in the afternoon-evening.

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The March 20, 1866 Violent Severe Weather Outbreak

March 21st, 2015 at 12:37 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Selected Accounts of the Outbreak:

THE TERRIBLE TORNADO OF 1866.

The most terrific wind storm that ever visited Montgomery county passed through this township March 20, 1866, just after the Civil war. It was seven o’clock in the evening that an awful hurricane rushed into the township three fourths of a mile north of the southwest corner of the territory, passing in a diagonal direction like a mighty sickle of death and general destruction. The sound of the rushing wind was frightful to hear. Thunder was loud and heard many miles distant. Buildings and trees were crushed and twisted in all kinds of shapes. The unearthly cry of animals of many species filled the ears of the inhabitants with awful sounds. Huge logs were as feathers before a tempest. The wind completely demolished new and older structures. Among the buildings blown to pieces are now recalled those of Dr. Straughan. M. F. James and H. A. Foster. All the buildings of John Frame were unroofed. and hundreds of dollars’ worth of timber destroyed. A child of Mrs. M. F. James was killed outright. H. A. Foster’s wife was found dead, and two children were killed. Dr. Straughan had a child blown a hundred yards and seriously wounded. Others were more or less injured. After the passage of the storm, birds, rabbits and other small animals were found dead in the track. H. A. Foster was in his sugar camp at the time, and although the air was completely filled with dust, dirt, rubbish, timbers and boards, his life was spared, but upon getting to his home the scene was awful. Pieces of buildings, machinery, garments and various articles were carried many miles away. A bed sheet was left hanging in the top of a tall tree for more than a year after the storm. A feather bed was found beneath the trunk of a large oak. Clothing belonging to both men and women, was found four miles distant. M. F. James claimed that a portion of the roof of his house was blown fifteen miles. and this was proven to be true from the fact that his was the only house that had a pitched roof between there and Terre Haute. A bureau drawer was found eight miles distant from where it belonged. A tin wash boiler was found in the top of an oak tree forty feet from the ground. All in all, this was the most terrible storm tragedy ever witnessed in this portion of Indiana.

History of Montgomery County, Indiana 1913 Page 413

The Recent Tornado.

A terrible wind storm visited this section of Indiana about 10 o’clock , on the evening of the 20th inst. Considerable damage was done in this county to fences and forests, but compared with that of Fayette county our loss was nothing. In Connersville along, the damage done to houses and stables amounted to at least $15,000. Scarcely a house, shed, chimney, fence, or shade tree, within the track of the tornado (comprising more than a third part of the town) remained untouched. At least half the chimneys were partly or wholly blown down, even with the roofs of the houses. Besides this over one hundred shade trees were uprooted, broken above or at the roots, or bent over by the wind.

The east span of the Junction Railroad bridge across Whitewater river was destroyed, the whole of it falling into the water below. The second span moved some four inches from its position. The entire roof of the bridge was stripped off. This was one of the most substantial structures of the kind in the State. It was four hundred and eighty feet long. Had the sides been weather-broarded, the whole bridge would no doubt have been capsized and ruined.

About the time the storm came up, the freight train from Cambridge arrived at the depot in Connersville. Immediately after the wind ceased to blow, the engineer let on the steam and started for Hamilton, not being apprised of what had happened at the bridge half a mile from the depot, or the danger which awaited him and his train. The consequence was, the train moved on, and the locomotive and three of the cars were precipitated into the river, the locomotive capsizing as it went down, the three cars falling upon or by the side of it.

The train was composed of seven cars, and all the attachees of it, except the engineer and fireman, were in the rear cars, which were not precipitated into the river at the time of the accident.-

The engineer and fireman, however, went down with the engine, and the former was dangerously and the latter fatally injured. The fireman died on last Wednesday morning. His name was Tilden Downs; he had a family and resided at Cambridge. On the morning of the day on which the accident occurred he had taken out a policiy in the Accident Insurance Company for three thousand dollars. The engineer, Wm. Leonard, a son of Mr. “Jersey” Leonard, of this county, is still living, and will probably recover. His life was insured for five thousand dollars. -Liberty Herald.

Marshall County Republican Plymouth, Indiana April 5, 1866 Page 3

The storm last Tuesday night week was terrific and destructive in its track.. At Lebanon the hail destroyed nearly all the window glass in the place, two houses were blown down, the streets ran with water sufficient to float a steamboat, and the cattle and other stock suffered severely. The town of Milton, in Wayne county, suffered severely. Several buldings were unroofed and others were demolished.

Marshall County Republican Plymouth, Indiana March 29, 1866 Page 2

The storm Tuesday was the severest of the season. Hailstones of immense proportions rattled down-thunder rolled its deepest bass through the heavens, lightning gleamed in regular July style, and the rain poured down in torrents. Such a regular old-fashioned war of the elements has not been witnessed here about for many years.-New Albany Ledger

Marshall County Republican Plymouth, Indiana March 29, 1866 Page 2

We are informed by a Passenger on the New Albany road, that on Tuesday night, a terrible hurricane passed over a section of territory about a mile wide in the immediate vicinity of Ladoga. Several houses and barns were unroofed, a number of persons injured, if not killed, and large amount of property destroyed. -Putnam Banner

Marshall County Republican Plymouth, Indiana March 29, 1866 Page 2

SEVERE STORM

There was a severe thunder, rain and wind storm at Cincinnati last night, which interfered so much with the operations of the telegraph lines as to prevent the transmission of all the report. Hence the meagerness of our dispatches this morning.


Indianapolis Daily Journal Indianapolis, Indiana March 21, 1866, Page 1

The storm last Tuesday night week was terrific and destructive in its track. At Lebanon the hail destroyed nearly all the window glass in the place, two houses were blown down, the streets rain with water sufficient to float a steamboat, and the cattle and other stock suffered severely. The town of Milton, in Wayne county, suffered severely. Several buildlings were unroofed and others were demolished.

Large Hail Stones.

We saw, yesterday, nearly a bushel of hail stones, picked up in the garden of M.S. Patrick, Esq., at the Junction, six miles south of this city, which after having lain forty -hour hours, were still as large as hen eggs. J. P. Root Esq., of Hyde Park, brought one into this city which measured nine inches and a quarter in circumference. The storm swept over a belt of country about a mile in width, in a west-by-north-west direction, breaking trees and windows in its course with a wantonness unparalleled in our history. We have heard of it as far east as sixty-five miles from this city 1……..Speculation was rife, yesterday, as to origin of these hailstones; some gravelly asserting thier belief that two ice bergs has been taken up by a water-spout in the arctic regions, and, meeting in the air crushed each other to fragments. Few seemed disposed to belive it possible that these monsters could be produced in the ordinary way-by congelation of rain drops while falling.-Chi. Trib., 23d.

Marshall County Republican Plymouth, Indiana March 29, 1866 Page 2

1 65 miles east of the storm would be around Michigan City, Indiana -Chad

Connersville and Lebanon, Ind. Tornado left a scene of ruin never before witnessed on the morning of 21st. Came like an avalanche, hurling fragments of trees and buildings in every direction.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Monthly Report March 1866

………..the sentiment favored calling it a tornado…………..

All of these wind hail & rain storms (1858, 1866 & 1897 1) came from the southwest up the Wabash river and switched over towards the northeast along the line of the old canal. The Wild Cat valley seemed to be their objective point. They all took the same course.

The east span of the Main street bridge was blown away and the ice house of George W. Burroughs was totally demolished. At the same time the Wild Cat bridge was broken from the west shore and strung along the east bank of the stream.

According to Dr. Keith Heidorn, “Bridge destroyed by tornado leads to train derailment [on March 20, 1866]” 1

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Past and Present of Tippecanoe County Edited by Richard Patten DeHart 1909 Page 398

CHICAGO, April 2d.-A terrible tornado swept over parts of Illinois, and Indiana, on the 20th, the details of which have just come to hand. It seems that it first appeared in Johnson county, in the extreme southern portion of Illinois, and proceeded north about one hundred miles to Douglas county, and thence east fifty miles, to Montgomery, Indiana, where it disappeared, leaving a track of desolation three hundred yards wide. The totals loss of life is estimated at from sixty to one hundred, including entire familes from five to nine persons. Houses, trees, and cattle were taken up bodily, and heavy articles which have been recognized, have been carried twenty miles.

Daily Alta California San Fransisco, California April 5, 1866


Unchartered Territory……………..& Trends to Mid-Next Week

March 20th, 2015 at 3:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This is one for the recent record books in regards to severe weather:

NORMAN, Okla. —Have you noticed we are more than half way through March and there have been no severe weather outbreaks or tornadoes?

“We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather,” said Greg Carbin, Storm Prediction Center’s warning coordination meteorologist in a news release. “This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970.”

The National Weather Service said Thursday that it hasn’t issued — any — tornado or severe thunderstorm watches so far this month.

March is typically the start of severe weather season, but has been “unusually quiet” so far, experts said.

NWS forecasters said they see no sign of dramatic change for the next week ahead at least.

Since the start of the year, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches.

NWS forecasters said a more typical number would be 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March.

The reason behind the quiet year …

“We’re in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients — moisture, instability, and lift — have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year,” Carbin.

April and May are typically the busiest months for severe weather and tornadoes.

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Rain & even rain/snow/sleet last night is long gone, but 0.2″ of slushy snow/sleet accumulation was reported this morning at Rochester & near Peru.

Saturday looks good with highs at near 60 to 65 with mostly sunny skies & west to north winds at 10-20 mph.  HOWEVER, it may only get to the 50s in Newton, Jasper & as lake breeze front comes in.

After 28-32 Saturday night, Sunday will be cooler.  However, it DOES NOT looks as cool or as windy as it did yesterday with highs of 43-51 & northeast winds at 10-20 mph.

It does, though, still LOOK WINDY & CHILLY Monday with highs of 37-43 with a period of wet snow showers Monday morning.  The grass & car tops may be briefly whitened.  North to northwest winds may gust to 32 mph.

A decent rain is possible Tuesday-Wednesday in about 2-3 periods.  Even some t’storms may mix in Wednesday as we reach the 40s Tuesday & 60-65 range Wednesday.

Some areas will see 1″ of rainfall Tuesday-Wednesday.  This system may produce severe weather from Illinois to Oklahoma. 

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Rain/Snow Overnight, Gradual Clearing Today

March 20th, 2015 at 9:29 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Lastnight, some sleet & snow occurred in our northeastern areas.  In fact, a slushy 0.2″ of snow was reported from Rochester & near Denver!

The highest rainfall amounts were from the Kentland CoCo observer & CoCo observer Bud on the southeastside of Lafayette with 0.13″.

Gradual clearing will occur today with highs of 50-55 with a west wind at 5-10 mph.

After 36-41 tonight, Saturday still looks good with 60-65 with mostly sunny skies & a west wind at 10-20 mph.  So, it doesn’t look quite as breezy as it did yesterday.

DMA Map II


Showers (Even Some Wet Snow) Right Now

March 20th, 2015 at 2:45 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Showers continue around the area.  I have measured 0.08″ of rainfall at West Lafayette where it is a rather raw 37 as of 2:45 a.m.  Logansport has drizzle & 34 while Grissom has light rain at 34.

It is snowing now at Rochester, however.

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Any precipitation will be gone by 8 a.m., followed by gradual clearing, west to west-northwest wind at 5-10 mph & 50s.

Saturday looks great with mostly sunny skies & 60-66 with southwest wind at 15-25 mph.

After 20s Saturday night & sun with 40s & windy conditions Sunday, period of snow showers is likely Monday morning.  Again, quite minor accumulations are possible, followed by some sun & only 37-42 Monday afternoon.


March 19, 1948: Major Severe Weather Outbreak

March 20th, 2015 at 12:23 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MARCH 19, 1948…………..

On this date in 1948, a major severe weather outbreak struck our area in the Plains & entire Midwest to Ohio Valley.  A total of 52 people were killed and 300 were injured in the Midwest.  Interestingly, just 7 days later another major severe outbreak will occur with long-track tornado from near Terre Haute to Indianapolis, while tornadoes would strike Warren County.

A relatively “unconventional” outbreak, the severe storms passed between 10:30 a.m. to noon.  Violent tornadoes in Illinois were produced as early as 6:30 a.m.

In the March 19 outbreak, wind gusts of 100 mph were measured at Kokomo & the gusts of 95 mph measured at the Indianapolis airport broke the wind cups off of the anemometer.  Velocity for one minute there was 66 mph.  Widespread wind damage occurred in the viewing area.

Near Lafayette, a gust was measured over 100 mph with major wind damage.

In our southeastern counties to Huntington, damage totaled $4,000,000 (1948 dollars!).

The Weather Bureau called it “one of the most severe ‘straight’ wind storms of record” for the state.

A significant, cyclical HP supercell embedded in a squall line of storms (with likely LEWPs in it, too) raced from southwest of St. Louis at 6:50 a.m. to near Hoopeston, Illinois by 10:30 a.m.  It produced at least 6 tornadoes during this time with one of them being a long-track, violent, likely EF4 with 80% of Bunker Hill destroyed & 2000 buildings destroyed in that town alone.  The supercell produced a tornado near Hoopeston that unroofed homes, while possible EF0-EF2 tornadoes were produced from Warren to Benton & White counties.   It is likely that this tornado occurred on the triple point of the occluding storm system.

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Showers Moving Into Southern Counties After 5 p.m.

March 19th, 2015 at 4:48 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Showers are approaching southern counties & will move into the viewing area after 5 p.m.

It will be a cold rain as the precipitation falls through a lot of dry air.  The evaporative cooling process will make that rain fell icy cold & drop our temperature from 50 to 40 pretty quickly.

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Some Showers (& Even Wet Flakes/Sleet) On the Way For Tonight

March 19th, 2015 at 11:55 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It may be 44 at noon, but it feels much colder with that east wind sustained at 17 mph.  The dew point is also 17, so the air is very dry, which makes it feel colder than what it really is.

After 33 lastnight we are headed for 50-54 across the viewing area today, but the east wind will continue to be stiff at around 15-20 mph with some gusts to 25 mph.  The wind will decrease to 5 mph overnight.

Scattered showers will begin to overspread the viewing area after 5 or 6 p.m. this evening.  They should be over most of the area by 11 p.m.  Some wet snow/sleet may mix in over the far northern & northeastern part of the viewing area with evaporative cooling processes with the very dry air.

The precipitation should be out of the viewing area by 8 a.m. Friday morning with total amounts of 0.01-0.10″.  A couple isolated +0.10″ amounts are possible in our southern areas.  This system may actually dump accumulating snowfall east of here.

Gradual clearing will occur Friday with highs of 52-56 with west-northwest wind at 5-10 mph, followed by 36-41 Friday night.

DMA Map II43

Saturday looks nice with mostly sunny skies & strong compressional heating ahead of the cold front with southwest winds at 15-25 mph.  Highs of 60-66 are likely!

Strong cold front will blast in Saturday night with strong north to northwest winds developing & lows in the mid to upper 20s.

After 38-45 Sunday & 20s Sunday night, wave of some wet snow may pass Monday morning.  It may whiten the grass & your car top & rooftop, but it will not last long with highs of 37-43.

Some sun will appear after the snow, but north to northwest winds will be strong, adding a sharpness to the cold air.

It is still possible that there will be a 1-3″ band in Iowa/Missouri &/or Illinois.  If this would shift any, we would be in it.  We will watch it.  The Euro model has been more suggestive that this band will occur in our area, but I am not buying into that yet.

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After chilly weather Tuesday with sun, some showers will return Wednesday as we warm into the 50s with windy conditions.

This warmer weather will set the tone for an overall warmer trend after March 25.

 

 


The Latest Outlook On Rain, Snow & Colder Weather After Nice Start to the Weekend

March 19th, 2015 at 12:41 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY-FRIDAY MORNING……….

Some showers will arrive this evening & last into tonight.  With east winds at 10-15 mph, high of 50-54 are likely.

Some wet snow may mix in over the northeast & far north (northern Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, northern Cass, northern Miami counties).  This will occur as a supply of bone-dry air nudges in from the east & northeast & the rain falls through that.  Through evaporative cooling processes, some wet snow is possible with temperatures in the 34-36 range there & 37-38 elsewhere in the viewing area.

The rain showers/wet snow will exit Friday morning.  Total precipitation of 0.01-0.10″ is possible with a few isolated +0.10″ amounts possible.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY…………

Friday will feature clearing with 53-57 & 36-41 Friday night.

Saturday looks good with partly cloudy, but breezy conditions with highs of 57-64.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY……….

Sharp, dry surface cold front will blast through Saturday night with temperatures quickly dropping through the 30s to the 20s.

A windy Sunday with partly cloudy skies will see highs only at 37-45 with 20s Sunday night.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY…………

Some snow showers are possible Monday morning.  If there is any accumulation, it would be the grass/car tops whitened a bit briefly, followed by sun & an afternoon at 38-45.  Lows Monday night will likely drop into the 20s.

After 40-46 Tuesday, showers are possible Wednesday with 49-57.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY………….

A nice temperature moderation is likely.  We could see a very nice warm-up as March ends & April begins.