Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Pic of Bald Eagle In Clinton County

October 14th, 2014 at 5:58 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

 Kyra Timmons sent me this pic of a Bald Eagle in Clinton County today:

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Rainfall Totals As of 4 P.M.

October 14th, 2014 at 4:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

These are the Sunday evening-Tuesday 4 p.m. rainfall totals:

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Arc of gusty showers is moving through northern/northeastern areas now, but new showers are forming in southern counties & moving northward.

Isolated thunder, small hail &/or gusty winds are possible.

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Gusty Arc of Showers Pivoting Through

October 14th, 2014 at 3:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Gusty arc of showers is pivoting through area.    Measured gust to 34 mph at WLFI at arc came through.

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12:38 p.m. Update

October 14th, 2014 at 12:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With some heating, scattered showers & low-topped t’storms are just beginning to re-develop around our low sitting over Illinois.  An arc of showers is lifting northward toward our area.

If additional sun will appear, more will bubble up in that arc with time this afternoon.

I can’t totally rule out an isolated low-topped severe t’storm or perhaps some small hail in a storm pivoting around the pin-wheeling low in Illinois.

Temperature is 65 at the station as of 12:38 p.m.

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Updates

October 13th, 2014 at 5:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

10:30 p.m.

All is clear with scattered severe threat.  Only report I have is two trees down in southern Fountain County northwest of Kingman.

Line continues to be in weakening trend as the moderate rains continue to outrun it.

There is quite a bit of wind damage south of I-70 to as far east as just west of I-65 in the southern half of Indiana.

Given the number of warnings & amount of severe weather nearby tonight & the circulations in the line, two trees down in Fountain County is pretty tame.

STORM REPORTS:

(Gusts Measured Over 35 mph)

Two trees down northwest of Kingman

M46 mph  Crawfordsville

M44 mph  West of Crawfordsville

M39 mph  Covington

These are the counties under watches & warnings tonight:

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10 p.m.

Still, mesocirculation apparent in storm near Ladoga.  It is not tight, but rotating.  It has been pretty consistent since south of Roachdale in Putnam County.

Attica gusted to 31 mph with passage of line.

Northwest of Otterbein, identity of line is gone.  Line extends from near West Lafayette area to Romney to Ladoga.

Think after 11 p.m., any scattered severe threat will end.

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9:33 p.m.

We continue to see these meso circulations or areas of weak rotation through the line.  The circulation northwest of Morocco is strong enough & low enough to warrant Tornado Warning per NWS Chicago.

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Also seeing interesting things in LEWP in Montgomery County near Alamo.

Although the circulation is not tight, it is there & another one is present south of Ladoga working northward.  May have Tornado Warning for either or both cells soon of strengthening trend continues.

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Gusts 40-50 mph possible near Odell to Shadeland & across much of northern & central Montgomery County.

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Check out the two bows of wind in south-central Indiana.

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9:15 p.m.

Covington gusted to 39 mph at 9:03 p.m.  Line currently runs from west of Alamo, through Veedersburg to west of Earl Park & Kentland.

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There is quite a wall of wind with large bow blasting through south-central Indiana at the moment:

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9:05 p.m.

Lots of weak meso circulations & LEWPs in this line that is very sheared.  However, all warnings continue to be south of I-70.  Overshooting anvil rains are still an issue.

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8:40 p.m.

Rain continues to outrun the line & disrupt it as it closes in on Covington & Kingman, moving northeast at 35-40 mph.  There are still some gusts in those line cores of 40-50 mph, though.

Severe weather continues south of I-70, though, where rains are not outrunning the line.  This part of the line has greatly bulged into a larger-scale backwards C shape,  slowing the northern part of the line down.  This could be causing a lot of moderate rain to outrun it & overall disrupt its severe potential.

However, the individual kidney bean shapes & nodes in the line with bursts of weak rotation are showing the impressively sheared environment in the low levels.  This & low LCLs (cloud bases) should continue to support brief mesocyclones in the line with brief, weak EF0 tornado potential.  The dynamic enivronment still supports some scattered gusts of severe strength to make it to the ground.

We will continue to monitor, but all has been good so far in regards to severe weather.

This veering of surface wind from south to southeast atop strong south, thin southwest flow aloft continues to make for deep-layer shear overall.

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8:20 p.m.

It is still warm with temperatures as 69-73 with dew points at 63-66.

Rains ahead of the line in the anvil continue to disrupt it, but shear remains strong. 

All warnings so far have been south of I-70. 

However, 40-50 mph wind fields are showing up in bulge in the line southwest of Kingman & Covington.

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7:44 p.m.

Main part of the squall line with the warning is south of I-70 at the moment.  Line is racing northeastward & should still in into our area 8 p.m. & after.

Line has weakened some up this way as rain surging out ahead of the line with the anvil has disrupted it some.  However, uptick in cloud-to-ground lightning & persistent node in the line northwest of Terre Haute is moving northeastward toward Fountain County & needs to be monitored.

Tornado Warning might go up on this suspicious cell eventually.

Instability has decreased with nocturnal cooling, but low-level shear has strengthened as low-level jet has increased & surface winds have turned more southeasterly, than southerly.  This is also enhancing shear.  This continues to support isolated EFO (maybe low-end EF1) tornado threat & scattered severe gust threat.

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7:10 p.m.

Line is moving northeast at 45 mph & is 45 from the Fountain County line, so it will be about 8 p.m. when this starts to move in.

Scattered severe gusts & brief, weak isolated tornadoes are still possible in the 8-11 p.m. time frame.

NWS Indianapolis has locally-extended Tornado Watch to cover Carroll & Howard counties.

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6:38 p.m.

Illinois part of Tornado Watch has been locally-extended (per NWS Chicago office) to cover Newton, Jasper & Benton.  Northern Indiana office may follow suite.

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6 p.m.

Low-level wind fields are strong, as evidenced by the distinct undulations in the stratus deck over the sky.

QLCS squall line is racing north-northeastward & will barrelling into the viewing area by 8 p.m. & onward.

Scattered severe straight-line gusts & isolated, brief tornado threat (EF0……perhaps low-end EF1) will continue as line races through.

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5 p.m.

New Tornado Watch out………….

Watch in effect for Warren, Tippecanoe, Clinton & Tipton counties & southward.  However, I don’t let your guard down north of there.  I think a watch may be issued for those areas later this evening.

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3:40 P.M. Update

October 13th, 2014 at 3:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is warm & actually rather muggy with strong southerly winds!  Temperature have already exceeded 70 area-wide!

The band of showers/t’storms that has been racing through is running from Newton to Cass counties.

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New Tornado Watch is up for areas just west of the viewing area.

Situation is unlike 2 of the past 3 QLCS squall lines in that is has warmed up nicely & there is not much rain to disturb the squall line.  You want the line unhibited with not a lot of rainfall ahead of it.  So, our current set-up means scattered severe threat is much more solid with this one.

All the rain in front of these squall lines has been a forecasting headache, but this is more cut & dry today.

Holes in the overcast continue to be found in our area & in Illinois ahead of the line with surface CAPE of around 1000 J/kg.  Strong shear in a deep layer of the troposphere will migrate from southern Illinois northeastward towards region this evening.  This is reason for new watch just west of us in Illinois.

One of two things wll happen.  Either local NWS office will make an extension of the Illinois watch into our area or a new watch will be put out for southern & central Indiana.  Regardless, I think the entire area will end up with a Tornado Watch eventually.

Given the fact that the watch box is all the way up to the Kankakee River in Illinois & the dew point is 68 at the Jasper County Airport with 70s now into southern Michigan, I think it is safe to say that the entire viewing area is under a severe threat this evening-tonight for scattered severe gusts & isolated, rain-wrapped tornado or two.

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1:51 P.M. Update

October 13th, 2014 at 1:44 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We’ve had a break in the rainfall for a few hours in the viewing area (even some sun!), but another band of showers & t’storms is coming up from the southwest & is already moving into our southwestern counties.

Looks like squall line will come through viewing area between 8 & 11 p.m., rather than centered around midnight.

Scattered severe gusts & perhaps an isolated, rain-wrapped, brief EF0 tornado or two are possible.

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1 A.M. Update

October 13th, 2014 at 1:02 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Periodic showers & t’storms will pass tonight-tomorrow.  There will be breaks in-between, but it appears the greatest break will be tomorrow evening.

We may be dry for several hours preceding the squall line, which may pass around midnight.

Highs tomorrow will run 70-74, but thinking we may be 65-70 for a good chunk of the day before exceeding 70 in the evening.  It will be a windy day with sustained winds at 10-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph, especially later in the day & tomorrow evening.

Squall line will come through tomorrow night with potential of scattered gusts & perhaps an isolated brief, weak tornado or two.

Scattered showers will continue after the line tomorrow night with lows near 62.

Scattered showers & t’storms are likely off & one Tuesday.  If some sun can appear, then an isolated to scattered severe threat may develop (hail, few severe gusts, isolated weak tornado).  Highs may be in the mid to upper 60s, but will likely fall late in the day into the 50s.

By Wednesday morning, 1-3″ of rainfall will likely have fallen across the viewing area.

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11 P.M. Update

October 12th, 2014 at 10:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Showers have been increasing all evening.  Additional showers & even some t’storms will pop south of the area & move northward all night & into the morning.

Temperatures will rise to 61 & periods of showers & t’storms will pass as the surface warm front works northward through the viewing area.

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Latest On Severe Potential & Rainfall Totals

October 12th, 2014 at 3:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers will tend to increase this evening & tonight.  Embedded t’storms are possible, too.

Temperatures may drop into the 50s with evaporative cooling from any rainfall as rain moves through dew points in the 40s to lower 50s, but with increasing warm flow from the south (as warm front lift northward) overnight, temperatures will begin to rise.  Dew points will also rise.  The 60-degree dew point line is currenly near Evansville & will work northward with northward progression of that surface warm front.

It will also be a breezy evening & night with southeast winds becoming southerly at 15-25 mph.

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It looks like periods of showers & t’storms Monday.  There will be a few breaks in-between wave of rainfall.  Winds look strong from the south & south-west up to 37 mph.

This rainfall will play a key role with the high temperature tomorrow late afternoon.  Right now, data suggests 70-74, but if it rains a lot, temperature may remain at 65-67.  Regardless, dew points will be high from 60 to as high as 65.

It is certainly quite possible that we will reach our high temperature after 6 p.m. in the 70s.  Both the NAM & GFS data show 75 & 78, respectively for Lafayette area tomorrow & temperatures well into the 70s area-wide.  I think that is too warm & tend to think it will be cooler than that.

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Tomorrow evening, after 7 p.m., it appears a distinct break in the rainfall will occur (this would likely be when we reach our high for the day in the 70s).  At 7 p.m., data suggests that a QLCS squall will run from western Illinois to Louisiana.  At that point, showers & a few t’storms will be exiting our area.

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Looks like a QLCS squall line tomorrow night.  All, but the far north has potential of scattered severe gusts & perhaps an isolated EFO tornado with this.  The wind/isolated tornado threat would come with any bow/LEWP/bulging node in the line.

The widespread severe threat with perhaps a strong tornado or two (EF3) would tend to be south of our region.

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As for Tuesday, main line will work eastward & severe threat will continue from Ohio to the Gulf Coast with a long squall line.

Here, scattered showers & t’storms are likely with breaks.  If the sun can appear for a bit, as cold pocket aloft moves over the occluded front, then a broken line of t’storms may form & pivot around upper low & bring isolated to a few scattered severe storms of hail/wind/isolated tornado.  We will watch this.  It doesn’t look widespread, but if buoyancy can develop, then these scattered storms could really pulse up.

After this, temperatures will fall late in the afternoon after 63-68 to 55-59 with scattered showers.

Scattered showers may last into Wednesday morning, followed by partial clearing & 60-65.

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Total rainfall of 1-3″ will occur area-wide.  We will watch that 3-4″ corridor to make sure it does not shift westward.  Given that kind of rainfall in the upper Wabash Basin, we may see the Wabash at least rise to flood stage by late week.

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