Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Current Snow, Ice & Rain Projections

February 27th, 2015 at 4:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It will be a cold night with lows of -10 to -4 with frosty conditions & perhaps some patchy freezing fog.  Some high cirrus will increase late.  The sun will fade behind clouds tomorrow, followed by snow late Saturday evening-night to Sunday.  It could mix or go to rain perhaps in the south.  Highs of 32-36 north to south still look good.

Tweaks are still possible in snowfall projections.

Current snowfall totals Saturday night to late Sunday & rainfall totals Tuesday (trace of ice over southern/central areas with as much as 0.1-0.25″ in north & northeast at first):

DMA Map IIDMA Map III

Temperatures Tuesday at 7 p.m.:

3


53% of Lower 48 Covered In Snow

February 27th, 2015 at 3:17 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is just a couple of days from March, but 53% of the U.S. is covered in snow.

1


Q & A 5:30-6 Today…..Another Unseasonably Cold Morning…….Active Saturday Night-Sunday & Monday Night-Tuesday Night

February 27th, 2015 at 10:21 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I will be on for immediate response today 5:30-6 p.m.  -Chad

It was another unseasonably cold morning:

DMA Map II

Snow is still likely Saturday night-Sunday.  Potential still exists for some mix south & even a change-over to ALL RAIN.  Highs of 32-36 Sunday still look good.  You know, given strength of that low-level jet (45-50 mph), it is possible that rain line may migrate even farther north.  This is largely the reason for the 1.5-5″ range south of U.S. 24, where uncertainty on this exists.

I should have a much more detailed snowfall map than this one later today-tonight:

108

Break Monday will be followed by freezing rain Monday night-Tuesday morning, then all rain Tuesday-Tuesday night.  Thunder is possible.

Temperatures may actually max out above normal by 3-6 degrees.

It will feel like spring farther south with 60s across southern Indiana & 70s into Kentucky.

Projected Temperatures Tuesday PM:

1

With all of the snow & ice melt & at least 0.50-1″ of rainfall, creek rises & minor flash flooding is likely.

HOWEVER, there will be a conveyor belt of heavy rainfall & isolated t’storms aimed right at southern to perhaps central Indiana.  Right now, 2-5″ rain may fall in the southeastern half of Indiana with the potential of flooding.

If this band shifts northward & lines up with the Wabash Valley, then we will have substantial flooding problems.

Regardless, even with the lesser 0.50-1″, the Wabash will likely exceed flood stage some mid to late next week.

Some ice jamming is possible on creeks, but nothing like last year.


More Active Weather Ahead

February 26th, 2015 at 10:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

THE SIGNIFICANT RECORD COLD FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FEBRUARY 26, 1963……………

In the snowy, cold winter of 1962-63, we blew away the record low of -5 set in 1914 on this date.

With -23 on February 26, 1963, that old record was obliterated by an amazing 18 degrees!

On February 27, 1963, we dropped to -21 at West Lafayette.

This was the lowest temperature so late in the winter on record.

113117

COLD TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT…………..

Where skies have cleared, it is in the single digits to 0.  Where winding lake effect cloud band is hanging on with a few snow showers/flurries, it is near 10 or 11.

This band of cloud should eventually break up to just a few clouds.

That will along early morning lows to drop below zero area-wide.  A west/northwest breeze may drop the wind chill to near -20 by early morning.

With a west wind around 10-13 mph, wind chills will remain near 0 to the single digits Friday afternoon with partly cloudy skies.

With mostly clear skies, -10 to -4 looks good for lows tomorrow night.  The record low for West Lafayette Saturday morning is -5 set in 1993.  I am forecasting -5, which would tie the record.

116115114

SNOW, ICE & RAIN, FOG & A THAW (WITH EVEN THUNDER)…………

Saturday Night-Sunday Night………..

Snow will overspread area Saturday night-Sunday with possible mix/rain south.  Accumulating snow will occur area-wide, but the best potential of 5-9″ is along & north of U.S. 24 in intense banding.  South of there 1.5-5″ is likely.  A more detailed map with the latest tweaks will be out tomorrow.

Highs of 32-36 still look good for Sunday.  Tweaks are still possible with this forecast regarding amounts & where that intense banding will set up.

Monday-Tuesday Morning……….

With a lull, 30s look good for Monday.

Period of freezing rain is still likely Monday night-Tuesday morning with ice accretion possible, from a trace in the south to 0.1-0.25″ in the north & northeast.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night………….

It should go to all rain with much warmer air, fog & even thunder Tuesday-Tuesday night.

40s still look good with even 50s in the south & southeast.  Again, I want to still go warmer based on the significant warm air advection, but the snow/ice pack holds me back.  However, analog shows that such a temperature rise even with the ice/snow pack is possible.

0.50-1″ rainfall is likely, but there are indications that heavier totals may be shifting northward (1-2″).  We need to closely monitor this rainfall.  With the snowpack melting & a sudden big thaw with this rain, flooding situation will need to be watched.  A conveyor belt of heavy rain will be aimed right at southern Illinois & the southeastern half of Indiana south of a Richmond to Indianapolis to Terre Haute line.  If data verifies, 2.5-4″ of rainfall may fall in those areas, resulting in substantial flash, then river flooding.

Here, I still think stream/creek rises are a good bet with Wabash cresting above flood stage mid to late next week.  Minor ponding/flash flooding is also likely.  Some ice jamming is possible on some streams, though not like last year.


Frigid Nights Ahead……..Then Snow, Ice & Rain with Thaw

February 26th, 2015 at 4:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snow showers & flurries will gradually wind down this evening.  Still, a quick dusting is possible in heavier snow showers.  Lake effect snow band will, which is currently in far northwestern Newton County, swing back through Newton, Jasper counties before falling apart.

Temperatures are currently running in the teens to around 20 with areas of blowing/drifting snow & of course some of those snow showers.

105107

Some clearing tonight will result in temperatures below zero.  With a north to northwest wind, wind chills will drop to near -20 overnight to early Friday morning.

With partly cloudy skies, highs tomorrow will run in the teens to near 20 with a west wind at 10-15 mph.

After -10 to -4 tomorrow night, we will reach 19-26 Saturday with increasing/thickening clouds.  Calm winds in the morning will turn southeasterly at 10 mph by late morning.

With skies going overcast Saturday night, we may drop to 16-22, but temperatures will begin to rise afterward.  In fact, by Sunday morning, temperatures may be 25-30 degrees with southeast winds at 5-15 mph.

12101103

Snow will overspread area Saturday night-early Sunday & end by Sunday evening.  Snow could change to mix in the south or perhaps some rain.

Looks like current best potential of 5-9″ is along/north of U.S. 24 with 1.5-5″ south of there.

Highs will run 32-36.

Tomorrow, a more detailed map will be made.

Monday looks dry with 30s.

108

Freezing rain Monday night-Tuesday morning will go to all rain with much warmer temperatures Tuesday afternoon-evening.  Thunder is possible with fog, breezy to windy conditions with temperatures rising into the 40s & 50s.

All my data still supports 50s to 60, but I still have this reluctance to push the temperature up that far. 

It appears that 0.50-1″ of rainfall may occur. 

Rises in creeks & streams are likely with minor flash flooding.  The Wabash will likely rise above flood stage after this rainfall next week.

109

 


Thoughts On Late Weekend-Early Next Week………

February 26th, 2015 at 12:50 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Looking at the latest data, the only model I remotely agree with regarding this weekend-early next week is the Euro & even that, it is only pieces.  The others, I still have no forecast conformance with at the moment.

So, snow, perhaps mix/rain south seems reasonable Saturday night-Sunday with heaviest accumulations along/north of U.S. 24 of 5-9″ with 1-5″ elsewhere.  Highs will run 32-36 after 20s rising to 30 Saturday night.

After break Monday, freezing rain will overspread area Monday night-Tuesday morning with ice accretion anywhere from trace in southwest to 0.1-0.25″ in north & northeast.  It will go to ALL RAIN Tuesday-Tuesday night with temperatures in the 40s.

I do still want to go warmer, but I still have this reluctance.  I’d go 50s to 60 if not for snowpack.  Part of me still wants to raise the temperatures to spring-like levels.  I would not be surprised to see 50s in southeastern half, though.

With the melting ice/snow & rain, some minor flash flooding is possible, but no big issues are seen.  There will rises in creeks, streams & rivers, however.  It seems likely that the Wabash will at least make it to flood stage at Lafayette & Covington.

1


Snowfall Totals………Sunday-Tuesday Outlook

February 26th, 2015 at 10:36 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I measured 1.7″ with 0.11″ liquid equivalent at West Lafayette.

Most of the area had 1-2″ with 1″ or less in far southeast & east.  I did see one +2″ report from near Kentland from CoCo observer IN-NW-3.

Thank you all for your totals!

Scattered snow showers & flurries are possible today with brisk winds & mid to upper teens.  Any additional accumulation would amount to a dusting.  Areas of blowing & drifting will occur with the northerly winds.  We will drop below zero tonight & tomorrow night.

CoCo, NWS COOP & WLFI Spotter Totals:

DMA Map IIDMA Map III

Snow is likely Saturday night-Sunday.  It looks like it will end by late Sunday afternoon-early evening.

Some mix is possible in southern areas & it is still not completely out of the question that a change-over to rain will over in the southern areas.

In terms of accumulation, the heaviest band looks to be along/north of U.S. 24 with perhaps 5-9″ with 1.5-5″ elsewhere.

Highs in the area will run 31-36.

We will continue to monitor.

Rain/freezing rain will stay south of our area Monday with highs in the 30s.

Freezing rain is possible Monday night, but it looks like ALL RAIN Tuesday with much warmer weather with 40s.  However, ice accretion is possible for few/several hours Monday night-early Tuesday morning with a trace in the southwest to 0.1-0.25″ as you go into our northern & northeastern counties, before going to rain.

Looks like this will turn to ALL RAIN as far north as central Michigan as much warmer air surges northward.

Again, I would like to go warmer than 40s, still.  However, I am reluctant with cold ground & melting snow.  50s to 60 would easily be attainable if not for this.  Without so much snow, even 70 would be attainable as far north as western Kentucky.

Given the dynamics of the system, thunder is possible here with the potential of even some severe weather in the southern U.S., where it is cold with snowpack right now.

Creek/stream rises & some minor flash flooding is possible as we thaw with that rain Tuesday.

After this, with partly cloudy skies, we will cool back to highs of 28-34 Wednesday.


12:53 A.M. Update

February 26th, 2015 at 12:52 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

As of 12:50 a.m., I have 0.8″ snow at West Lafayette.

I have received reports of 1″ in Kentland & Fowler.

Gusts of 20-30 mph at times will blow & drift what about of snow there is.

Any steady light snow tonight-tomorrow morning with taper to some scattered snow showers & flurries tomorrow afternoon.

A fresh shot of Arctic air will keep temperatures in the teens with wind chills near, if not a bit below 0.

101

As for the weekend, Saturday look fine with increasing clouds & 20s with 20s Saturday night, then rising to 30.

Snow moves in Sunday, but it may change to mix & even just rain in the southern areas.  The potential exists for a band of heavy snow, perhaps along/north of U.S. 24 with 5-9″.

Monday looks to have a lull, but wave #2 may bring a period of some sleet, but mainly freezing rain Monday night-Tuesday morning.  Then, it looks like ALL RAIN & a thaw the rest of Tuesday with temperatures in the 40s.  I’d like to go warmer with 50s to 60, but there is just too much snow pack & cold soil over a large area.

Wednesday looks partly cloudy & colder with upper 20s to lower 30s.

 


50th Anniversary of ’65 Blizzard…….9:44 P.M. Update

February 25th, 2015 at 9:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This is the anniversary of the 1965 blizzard that shut the area down.  Purdue was closed………all schools were shut down & roads drifted over.

Anywhere from 5″ in Benton County to 18″ in Howard County fell.  9.6″ was measured at West Lafayette.  Howling winds of 35-50 mph occurred with the storm, resulting in white-out conditions.

The band of heaviest snowfall occurred from near Indianapolis to La Grange, Indiana.  That band saw the 12-18″ amounts.

The storm was an “Inside Runner”, which tends to produce the heaviest snows in our area.  Moving north-northeastward from the northern Gulf, it was memorable in how it shut the area down.

104109107110

Snow is falling over all, but the far northeastern/eastern areas & over the southeastern 1/4 of the area.  Frankfort to Crawfordsville to Atlanta to Peru to Rochester is still snowless.

Mary Anne in Remington is reporting 0.75″, while I measured 0.2″ at the station.

Temperatures are steady at 21-25.

113114


8:20 P.M. Update

February 25th, 2015 at 8:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Light snow is being reported at Rensselaer, Monticello, Kentland & Fowler currently.  However, it is still all  virga (snow that is drying up before it reaches the ground) at the television station in West Lafayette.  However, the snow is not far off the ground, judging by the streaks of it in the sky being illuminated by nearby city lights.

Logansport is still virga, as is Covington & Frankfort.

Snow will overspread area & winds will increase to 15-25 mph after midnight.  Gusts of 30 mph are possible.  Blowing & drifting snow will occur.

Tomorrow looks blustery & cold with some blowing/drifting with teens for highs.  Snow in the morning will taper to some scattered snow showers.

Most of the area is looking at 1-2″.  1″ or less may fall in our eastern areas. 

I would not be surprised to see a couple isolated +2″ amounts near that 2-4″ zone over northwestern Benton to southwestern Newton counties.

12101