THE SIGNIFICANT RECORD COLD FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FEBRUARY 26, 1963……………
In the snowy, cold winter of 1962-63, we blew away the record low of -5 set in 1914 on this date.
With -23 on February 26, 1963, that old record was obliterated by an amazing 18 degrees!
On February 27, 1963, we dropped to -21 at West Lafayette.
This was the lowest temperature so late in the winter on record.
COLD TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT…………..
Where skies have cleared, it is in the single digits to 0. Where winding lake effect cloud band is hanging on with a few snow showers/flurries, it is near 10 or 11.
This band of cloud should eventually break up to just a few clouds.
That will along early morning lows to drop below zero area-wide. A west/northwest breeze may drop the wind chill to near -20 by early morning.
With a west wind around 10-13 mph, wind chills will remain near 0 to the single digits Friday afternoon with partly cloudy skies.
With mostly clear skies, -10 to -4 looks good for lows tomorrow night. The record low for West Lafayette Saturday morning is -5 set in 1993. I am forecasting -5, which would tie the record.
SNOW, ICE & RAIN, FOG & A THAW (WITH EVEN THUNDER)…………
Saturday Night-Sunday Night………..
Snow will overspread area Saturday night-Sunday with possible mix/rain south. Accumulating snow will occur area-wide, but the best potential of 5-9″ is along & north of U.S. 24 in intense banding. South of there 1.5-5″ is likely. A more detailed map with the latest tweaks will be out tomorrow.
Highs of 32-36 still look good for Sunday. Tweaks are still possible with this forecast regarding amounts & where that intense banding will set up.
With a lull, 30s look good for Monday.
Period of freezing rain is still likely Monday night-Tuesday morning with ice accretion possible, from a trace in the south to 0.1-0.25″ in the north & northeast.
It should go to all rain with much warmer air, fog & even thunder Tuesday-Tuesday night.
40s still look good with even 50s in the south & southeast. Again, I want to still go warmer based on the significant warm air advection, but the snow/ice pack holds me back. However, analog shows that such a temperature rise even with the ice/snow pack is possible.
0.50-1″ rainfall is likely, but there are indications that heavier totals may be shifting northward (1-2″). We need to closely monitor this rainfall. With the snowpack melting & a sudden big thaw with this rain, flooding situation will need to be watched. A conveyor belt of heavy rain will be aimed right at southern Illinois & the southeastern half of Indiana south of a Richmond to Indianapolis to Terre Haute line. If data verifies, 2.5-4″ of rainfall may fall in those areas, resulting in substantial flash, then river flooding.
Here, I still think stream/creek rises are a good bet with Wabash cresting above flood stage mid to late next week. Minor ponding/flash flooding is also likely. Some ice jamming is possible on some streams, though not like last year.