Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

The 1997 November Snowfall………….Latest On Snow Potential This Weekend-Early Next Week

November 14th, 2014 at 9:48 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  This is the last post until early Sunday morning, given commitments Saturday-Saturday night & lack of close proximity to data or computer.  No new data will be viewed, nor any forecasting done until that point & this forecast is based on data before me as of 10 p.m. on Friday.

Everyone have a great weekend!

-Chad

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During this time in 1997, a round of snow was moving through our area.  Up to 9.3″ fell just south of our area in Putnam County with 8.4″ in parts of Indy metro, but most of our area had 2-4″ with 4-6″ on the outer fringes of the north, east & south.

Lake effect at the tail end of the storm & thereafter led to the higher totals in Jasper County.

System originated in Texas & spread precip northeastward.

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As skies are clearing, the temperature is dropping quickly.  Where low clouds still exist, temperatures are 21-25.  Where it is clear, temperatures are as low as 15 already.

That said, mostly clear skies & lows well down into the teens look good, but given this trend of such a temp drop, I like 9-16 more than previous forecast of 14-18.

Increasing clouds & 29-33 looks good for tomorrow.

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Light snow is likely Saturday evening-night, but  I am leaning heavily on the lighter end of accumulations.  I say 1-2″, but I like 1″ much more than 2″.  In fact, any amounts of over 1.5″ look rare & isolated & only confined to our north.

I say this as it appears system overall is tracking more north, with deeper moisture separated from it.  So, it is in two pieces; a northern-central/Midwest piece with snow & a southern U.S. piece with showers.

Of interest is that fact that the second system, which looked to bring 2-5″ of snowfall south of our region Monday-Tuesday, is tracking farther north.

My original thoughts were scattered flurries & snow showers Sunday-Tuesday with less than 1″ of accumulation each day.  I would prefer to keep it that way & wait to see if guidance is on to something with the early week system.

To summarize,  I like more like 1″ than 1.5 or 2″ Saturday evening-night & still prefer scattered flurries & snow showers with less than 1″ of accumulation each day Sunday-Tuesday, as opposed to system accumulating snowfall.

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Coldest November 14 Since 1974 (But 1992 Is Very Close)

November 14th, 2014 at 5:11 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs today in the viewing area have run 28-36.  This the coldest November 14 over the viewing area since 1974, when highs were 28-34.

November 14, 1992 was close with highs of 32-38.

Interestingly, in 1992, though we were in a cold spell at the time, a significant tornado outbreak hit Indiana November 22. 

Two tornado struck Montgomery County,  F3 & F1.  The F3 produced $2.5 million in damage in its track, while the F1 $1/4 million. 

Elsewhere, sporadic wind & hail to 1″ diameter occurred.

Highs reached the mid 60s across the area with highs winds of up to 45 mph behind the line of storms.

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It may be cold, but the sunset sure is beautiful!

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Thursday Snow Totals & Forecast Snowfall for Sat. Night

November 14th, 2014 at 9:31 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snowfall totals from CoCo/WLFI observers:

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It appears that our snowfall for Saturday night-Sunday morning will be confined to Saturday evening-night, largely.

Looks like we are fair game for snowfall 6 p.m. & onward Saturday & it should exit by 1 a.m.

HOWEVER, some scattered snow showers/flurries are still possible Sunday with less than 1″ of accumulation.

Looks like totals are going to range from around 1″ to as much as 2″ area-wide.

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Some scattered snow showers/flurries are possible Monday-Tuesday with less than 1″ of accumulation.

 


Scattered Flurries/Snow Showers Tapering

November 13th, 2014 at 10:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered flurries/snow showers are tapering & exiting.  Some of you picked up a quick dusting. 

One small area of snow showers moved from West Lafayette & Lafayette down 65 through Colfax & is now in the Lebanon area.  This has put down a think 0.2-0.5″ coating that is causing roads in this zone to be especially slick.  This zone is only a mile wide in places to up to 4 miles wide, oddly.

At my home, I measured 0.1″, but 0.4″ on the snow board at the station in the Purdue Research Park.

Beware of the slick areas on some roads, especially in this zone, overnight to early morning.

Friday looks partly cloudy & 31-34.


Coldest November 13th Since 1986 (Though It Is Very Close to 1996)

November 13th, 2014 at 3:37 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Overall, today is the coldest November 13 since 1986 in the viewing area, though it is very close to 1996.

In 1996, highs on this date ran 29-36, officially across the viewing area.  So far today, highs are running 27-32, from what I can tell.

November 13, 1986 saw highs only at 20-22 area-wide, officially.

Scattered flurries & snow showers continue across the area.  These will taper with time tonight with lows of 19-23.  A quick dusting/coating is possible in some areas.  Watch traveling in these areas for some slick spots.

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11:30 A.M. Update

November 13th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Plains surface Arctic high is ridging eastward causing sinking air & inversion (surface pressure is high at 1028 mb & is even over 1040 mb in the central Plains).  Abundant moisture is trapped under inversion with a sharp temperature drop (yeah, even with it at 25 at the surface right now!) from ground to 3500′.  This with upper trough pivoting southeastward from Wisconsin is all producing snow flurries & a few snow showers.

However, there is at least some dry air/mixing in our north, leading to sunshine.

So, partly to mostly cloudy skies will do for today, but a few of you will stay completely overcast.

Flurries/few snow showers wording will do with west-northwest winds 15-25 mph with highs of 28-34.

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Also, it still looks like a wave of light snow Saturday night-Sunday morning.

1″ or less will do, except for greater potential of 1-2″ occurring north of a Fowler to Delphi to Logansport line at the moment.

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10 P.M. Update

November 12th, 2014 at 10:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Will keep patchy flurries & even add light snow in forecast for the overnight given radar trends & continued overcast with saturation at around 3000′ noted in sounding.  With little upper jet streak causing a bit of forcing/lift & saturation at mid & upper levels, too, this will help a bit of light snow make it to the ground by “seeding” the stratus deck with ice crystals.

I would not even be surprised to see the flakes/pellets locally dust some areas given the much colder pavement now & freezing ground.  Even a thin coating/film or light powdered sugar dusting can make road surface/bridges a bit slick, so beware for any overnight travel or the morning commute.

20-23 will do given the fact that it is already 26 as of 10 p.m.  If we could really clear out the skies well, then upper teens could occur.

Some partial clearing is possible by morning as any of the flurries the light snow likely ceases, followed by broken stratocumulus clouds with sun in the afternoon & highs of 30-34 with northwest wind at 15-25 mph.

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As for the weekend, looks like light snow Saturday night-Sunday morning.

Whether it is a 1-2″ snowfall or just 1″ or less is still a bit unclear.  At the moment, there is a tendency for the best chance of 1-2″ north of a Fowler to Delphi to Logansport line.

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Latest Outlook to November 28

November 12th, 2014 at 3:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Stratus overcast remains trapped over area, but there have been a couple holes in it here & there.  More widespread clearing is occurring in central/south-central Illinois.  Temperatures are holding at 28-32 as of 4 p.m. with a west-northwest wind at 10-20 mph.

Forecast soundings continues to show stratus trapped under Arctic high pressure spread out from Montana to central Illinois with deep warmer, dry lid or inversion above 3000′.

Also, complete saturation (overcast) is shown in local sounding at around 6-7 p.m. at near 3000′.  This saturation could lead to a few fine, little grainy snow pellets every now & then.

Overnight, some dry air mixes down, so some partial clearing is possible, but it will likely not be until after midnight & not everyone will see it.

Regardless, went for lower 20s for lows, since temperatures are already running in the upper 20s over chunk of the area.

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Highs tomorrow will run 30-34 with northwest wind at 15-25 mph.  There is still quite a bit of moisture trapped at around 3000′ tomorrow.  Since some dry air will mix down, I think a broken stratocumulus seems likely.  So, partly cloudy sky wording will do.

Partly cloudy wording will do for Friday, as well with stratocumulus with moisture trapped at 3000′, but it will not be completely saturated.

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As for Saturday, the stratocumulus will dissipate, but high/mid clouds will increase/thicken.  By Saturday evening, skies will be overcast & light snow will overspread the area.  Light snow will likely end Sunday morning.

Whether it is 1″ or less or 1-2″ is in question.  Regardless, it will accumulate some, before melting by noon Sunday as temperatures climb to a high of 34.

Anothe southern system will pass well south of our region with snow Monday-Tuesday.  Whether this brings any snow or not is unclear, but I think at least some flurries/scattered snow showers will be possible with any lake effect & general troughiness over the area.  Highs will drop to the mid to upper 20s by Tuesday!

A temperature rebound will begin to develop Wednesday with a high near 33.  Thursday-Friday could see 40s.  We could see 50s & 60s by November 23 & 24 with showers & even t’storms.  I would not be surprised to see severe weather from the Mississippi to Ohio Valleys to as far north as part of Indiana. 

November 26-28 shows likely highs in the 40s & lows in the 20s with dry weather.

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Cold Pattern for at Least a Week……Snow by Saturday Night-Sunday Morning

November 12th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The stratus is locked in underneath inversion, but holes are developing in northwest Indiana with sun in northern Illinois.

Soundings show inversion staying put, so a chunk of the area may stay cloudy all day.  A few of you may manage to get some sun, however.

Temperatures are running in the upper 20s to around 30 over the area & will only rise to 30-35 today.

With some partial clear tonight, lows of 20-24 seem reasonable, followed by partly cloudy skies & highs only around 31 tomorrow & lows around 20 tomorrow night.

Friday & Saturday look mostly sunny with highs of 31-36 & lows near 18.

Clouds will increase & thicken Saturday evening-night with snow developing Saturday night.

Looks like upper 20s with that snow & the likelihood of the snow potential to last until noon Sunday.

As for accumulations, it is unclear whether it will be 1-2″ or 1″ or less at the moment.

A few snow showers/flurries are a good bet Monday-Tuesday with partly cloudy skies with northwest surface flow over Lake Michigan.  Highs in the 20s to around 30 are likely with lows in the teens.

 


A Few Snow Showers/Flurries As of 9:50 P.M………………Remembering the Historic November 11, 1911 Serial Derecho

November 11th, 2014 at 6:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Tonight, a few snow showers are passing through our northeastern counties with a few spits/flurries elsewhere.  We have had a few spits of snow over the past hour here at West Lafayette.

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A historic QLCS serial derecho, temperature drop &  following cold wave struck the viewing area  November 11, 1911.

A derecho of significant straight-line winds of 55 mph to even as high as likely 105 mph blasted the region.  Embedded tornadoes occurred with the QLCS.  One tornado was reported in Montgomery County.  With so much damage in the area, I have researched whether some places did indeed have a tornado, or it was a downburst/straight-line winds.

There is evidence that a brief low-end EF1 tornado struck the Purdue Extension Farm with significant straight-line winds over West Lafayette & Lafayette & perhaps a downburst in the city of Lafayette with widespread structural damage with winds of up to 90 mph.

Every county reported tree, power pole/line & structural damage, but certain spots the damage was worse than others.

Ahead of the derecho, temperatures surged 72-76, then fell into the 30s in one hour as the derecho passed.  The rain behind it quickly changed to sleet, then snow with anywhere from 1-3″ accumulating in the area.  Visibility dropped to near zero in gusts of up to 55 mph BEHIND the derecho with the snow.

In 24 hours, temperatures fell from the 70s to single digits.

Storm reports are  plotted from Weather Bureau observer records, Monthly Weather Review records & newspapers November 12 & 13, 1911.

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Write-up in U.S. Weather Bureau (NOAA) monthly weather review:

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