Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Historically Cold Day………..Tracking Clipper

November 18th, 2014 at 10:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was unofficially the coldest November 18 on record at West Lafayette!

This has gone from an unseasonable cold wave to record cold for the central & eastern U.S.  Cold of this magnitude so early is similar to 1991 & 1995, 1996.

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Clipper is now in Iowa & pivoting southeastward.  Temperatures will warm tonight ahead of it from 13 to 19 with south to southwest wind at 10-15 mph.

Snow showers are likely Wednesday morning with 1″ or less of accumulation, followed by a break with some sun & strengthening winds with highs near 34.  However, more clouds will develop in the afternoon-evening with some additional flurries & snow showers possible as temperatures fall & wind turn more northwesterly, compared to southwest & west winds of earlier in the day.  It will be a windy day with gusts to 40 mph.

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Gusty, Cold Day……..But Nice Warm-Up Ahead

November 18th, 2014 at 12:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Crippling lake effect event continues on the Buffalo, New York area.  Snowfall rates of up to 5″ per hour are occurring.  70″ may fall in the heaviest bands before all is said & done with already 48″ reported.  The bands are very localized, however.

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It can always be worse!  This is the data from the coldest November on record at West Lafayette…..in 1880.  Snowfall tallied on separate sheet was 10.4″.

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Lows this morning ranged from 7-12, per AWOS/ASOS, WLFI & personal weather stations.

Wind chills were as low as -11.

DMA Map IIII

Flurries & snow showers are likely today & tomorrow.  Any accumulations will run less than 1″.  Winds will continue to be strong from the west today with gusts to 40 mph with blowing/drifting snow.  The wind tonight will go south at 10-20 mph.  Wind tomorrow will turn from southwest to west to northwest tomorrow with gusts of up to 40 mph.

After 17-21 today, we will drop to 13-17 briefly tonight, then rise to 19-24 & reach 31-35 tomorrow.

Thursday looks bright, but windy & cold with highs only around 30 with northwest winds to 40 mph. with lows near 11 Thursday night.

With increasing clouds, highs near 31 are likely Friday, but lows Friday night will only drop to 25, then rise to 32 by Saturday morning.

As some showers move in by Saturday morning, very shallow layer of freezing air may reside near the ground.  This may lead to a period of some light freezing rain, before changing to plain rain.

I wouldn’t even rule out a little sleet as the precipitation works through a dry layer at first before going to a bit of freezing rain, then plain rain.  The duration of any wintry precipitation looks rather brief with melted amounts at 0.03″ or less.

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With some scattered showers around, temperatures will rise to near 40 by Saturday evening & mid 40s by 11 p.m. Saturday night.

Showers & even a few t’storms are likely Sunday with highs of 55-60.  After perhaps reaching 58-63 Sunday night with showers & t’storms, we will tend to fall all day Monday as any rainfall ends.  Temperatures will likely run in the 40s most of the day with strong west winds.

Severe weather is likely in the southern U.S. from Texas to North Carolina with even some tornadoes.  That southern Indiana to Kentucky & Tennessee zone may have a broken line of low-topped cells on the actual cold front Monday with isolated severe threat as temperatures surge into the 60s.

In terms of rainfall, data still suggests 1-2″ for our area.

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Outlook to Thanksgiving

November 17th, 2014 at 4:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This would be rough even in January, let along BEFORE Thanksgiving!

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TONIGHT-TUESDAY…………..

Some flurries/snow showers are possible off & on tonight-Tuesday.

The high tomorrow of 19 would tie for the coldest November 18 on record (19-1959), while the low of 8 tonight will not be anywhere near the record low of -8 set in 1880.

Strong winds will drop wind chills to -11 tonight-Tuesday morning & wind chills will likely remain near/below 0 tomorrow with gusts to 30 mph from the northwest.

Blowing/drifting snow will continue to be an issue through tomorrow.

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TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY…………….

After a low near 13 tomorrow night, temperatures will likely rise to 19 with wind turn to the south.

A clipper Wednesday will warm it up to 33, but scattered flurries & snow showers are possible.

Any snowfall now-Wednesday will run under 1″ daily.

Thursday-Friday looks dry with sun & highs near 31 & lows near 15.

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FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING……………….

Clouds will increase late Friday-Friday night with temperatures dropping to 25, then rising to 31 by Saturday morning.  It is possible that any precipitation will begin as a mix of sleet & freezing rain Saturday morning to noon.  However, as the warm air comes in, it will change to just scattered rain showers with time.  However, we will likely NOT hit the high of 43 until 11 p.m. & it will run 35-42 by late Saturday afternoon-evening.  We will likely rise to near 50 by Sunday morning.

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SUNDAY-MONDAY…………

As for Sunday, periodic showers & even a few t’storms are a good bet with increasing southeast to south winds to 30 mph.  Temperatures will rise to 52-60 from north to south by evening.  We will likely hit our highs of 59-63 in the area early Monday morning as a band of heavy rainfall/t’storms passes.  Question is…………..will the squall line get as far north as our area………….& could it be severe?  Looks like any severe threat would be south of our area at the moment, but we will watch.  Looks like a strong, windy system!  1-2″ rainfall is a possibility.

After warmth early Monday morning, temperatures look to fall into the 40s by afternoon.

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NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY…………….

After this potentially gusty, strong system, highs in the 40s look to be common to Thanksgiving with a couple of clippers with a few showers.  Lows look to run in the 20s & 30s.


Big Changes Coming…….Snowfall Totals & Coldest Weather So Early Since 1991

November 17th, 2014 at 12:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

IT FEELS LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY!

Scattered flurries/snow showers are possible today with temperatures at 20-25 & strong northwest winds to 40 mph.  This will knock wind chills below 0 at times.  Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely.  Blowing & drifting snow will be an issue over rural roads.

Lows tonight of 5-10 are likely with breaks in the clouds mixed with flurries & snow showers.  Wind chills may reach -10 at times.  Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely.

Scattered flurries & snow showers are likely tomorrow with clouds & some sun.  Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely.  Highs of 17-22 are likely, but temperatures will only drop to 10-15 Tuesday night, then rise as winds go south at 10-15 mph.

A clipper may bring scattered snow showers Wednesday with 31-35, followed by 30 Thursday & 35 Friday & dry.

The temperature will SKYROCKET, however, by the weekend with 40s Saturday (after rising through the 20s Friday night) & 50s Sunday.  However, showers & some t’storms will move in.

Data shows strong, dynamics system around November 24 with lots of deep tropical moisture & SCREAMING low-level jet with winds at 5000′ to 80 mph & strong upper jet streak of 125 mph.

There is a severe weather signal from Texas to North Carolina.  However, there is also just enough instability for some severe weather from southern Indiana, through southeastern Missouri, Kentucky to Tennessee with 500 J/kg of surface CAPE.

Around November 24, model data shows VERY STRONG surface low pivoting through central Illinois with surface pressure down to 986 mb with howling winds around it of 45-50 mph.

The 70-degree line may get as far north as western Kentucky with 60 as far north as Lafayette & Peru.

Midwest Map II

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Snowfall totals (CoCoRaHs, NWS COOP, WLFI Spotters):

DMA Map IIII

We have not had such intense cold so early in season since the record-breaking cold wave of early November 1991 when widespread readings of around zero to the single digits occurred & a massive, historic blizzard hit the upper Midwest.

Prior to that, it was 1986 that had the intense cold so early.

What is noteworthy about the cold this November is 1) duration 2) sustainability despite even sun 3) number of daily highs below freezing.

Let it be said that the 1991-92 & 1986-87 winters were not overly bad after very rough Novembers.  However, winter outlook showed a signal for below-normal temperatures & above-normal snowfall January-March, BUT above-normal temperatures November-December.

Despite low tonight near 7, this will not even be close to breaking the West Lafayette record of -8 set in 1880.


9 P.M. Update

November 16th, 2014 at 8:57 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Thank you everyone for your accurate & timely reports!  I REALLY appreciate them!

-Chad

Measured 2.1″ as of 9 p.m. at West Lafayette.

Snowfall totals as of 9 p.m. are below.  Back edge of snow in northwestern counties as of 9 p.m.

DMA Map IIII11


7:30 P.M. Update

November 16th, 2014 at 7:44 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

2.5″ has been reported from 3 miles north of Frankfort.  2.0″ at West Lafayette as of 7:30 p.m.  Ockley, in southwest Carroll County, reports 2.25″.  All reports are plotted below:

DMA Map IIII 27


1.4″ As of 6:36 P.M.

November 16th, 2014 at 6:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Measured 1.4″ of snow on the board as of 6:36 p.m. at West Lafayette, but roads are slushy/wet.

Any snowfall measurements are greatly appreciated!

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5:40 P.M. Update

November 16th, 2014 at 5:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Measured 0.7″ of snow as of 5:45 p.m. at West Lafayette.  Up to 1.5″ has been reported in Clinton County.

Snow will continue to fill in over area.  Heaviest totals will be in the southeast, where 3-5″ is likely.  1-3″ looks good elsewhere with amounts more like around 1″ in the northwest.

This is based on this trend of a slightly more northerly/northwesterly track of the system.

Wet or slushy roads will become snow-covered overnight & slick as the sun is gone & temperatures fall into the 20s.

DMA Map IIIDMA Map IIII


2:30 P.M. Update

November 16th, 2014 at 2:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some snow is falling in parts of the area now.  This will increase in coverage & intensity this late afternoon-evening & into tonight.  1-3″ still looks good by morning.  Best potential of 3″ is in in our southern areas, while the best potential for 1″ in in the northwest.  4-6″ is likely in southern Indiana, where Winter Storm Warnings are lining up.

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We will continue to monitor the track of this continually-evolving storm system.  Any additional wobble to the north & the higher totals will shift northward.

I have noticed the high-resolution HRRR model bringing some 4-6″ banding towards Indianapolis metro & even southeastern Montgomery to Boone & Tipton counties recently.

The trend since yesterday has been to shift every thing north.  From lastnight’s system to this one, north, north, north has been the key.

We will watch this closely & have another update out at 5:30 p.m.

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Near-record cold will follow.  Tuesday morning’s projected low of 7 looks like the third coldest November 18 on record, behind the 5 in 1959 & -8 in 1880.

The projected high temperature of 19 Tuesday would tie for the coldest November 18 on record, in terms of maximum daily temperature.  The record is 19 set in 1959, followed by 23 set in 1880 for second.

Wind chills may be near -10 Tuesday a.m. in parts of the area.

 


Latest On Snowfall

November 16th, 2014 at 11:51 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snowfall lastnight was largely west & northwest of our area with up to 2″ in the Chicago area & up to 1″ in central Illinois.

Here, flurries to a light dusting/coating occurred.

However, 1-3″ is likely this evening-tonight-Monday morning.  The 1″ amounts will tend to be in the north with the 3″ amounts more likely the south.

Some flurries/scattered snow showers are possible today with less than 1″, but the snow will pick up after dusk over the area.

DMA Map IIDMA Map III