Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Frost Tonight…………..Less Wind Wednesday

April 22nd, 2014 at 3:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful day!  Our high so far at WLFI has been 60.6, but we will drop to 32 tonight with some frost.

After 57-65 tomorrow, windy, warm weather will arrive Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Southwest winds may gust to 36 mph.

A line of showers/storms is likely after 6 p.m. Thursday evening.  I cannot rule out a few sporadic strong to severe gusts with it, but it appears that the main severe weather threat will stay southwest & west of us.

After windy, sunny & dry conditions Friday with highs in the 70s to around 80, the weekend looks cooler with highs at 56-63 with lows near 32.

50s & 60s will dominate most of next week with most nights in the 30s.


Happy Earth Day……..Nice Day, But Frost Tonight

April 22nd, 2014 at 1:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Happy Earth Day from Hadley!  She & I planted a Flowering Dogwood for the day!

It is a beautiful one (if you don’t mind the wind so much) with nice sunshine!

Frost is likely tonight, however.  Low temperatures will dip to 30-33 with 32 in the Lafayette/West Lafayette area.

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April 21, 1896 Serial Derecho……….Outlook to May 9

April 21st, 2014 at 10:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

 I WILL HAVE MORE GRAPHICS WITH THIS POST SOON…………

A serial derecho with origins in Nebraska & South Dakota produced widespread wind damage & tornadoes from those locations all the way to Pennsylvania.

In our viewing area widespread wind damage occurred during the very early morning hours of April 21.  The greatest concentrations of straight-line winds damage were reported from Tippecanoe, Cass, Montgomery, Fulton & Miami counties.  If there were tornadoes here, they were brief EF0s or low-end EF1s, as there no evidence of any substantial ones, but some of the damage points to brief rain-wrapped, “weaker” ones.

Roofs & chimneys were damaged, trees & electric poles were snapped, fences destroyed & barns blown down.  Also, cellars were reported flooded as tail end of apparent of derecho was paralell to southwest flow aloft & training occurred.  The Purdue University station measured 1.47″ of rainfall.

Strong low-level jet is evident after one of the hottest April days on record in our area on April 20.  Low-level winds were very strong out of the south around Bermuda-type high.  To this point,1896 was the warmest April on record in our area (since 1868).

In fact, highs reached the upper 90s in the Carolinas & lower to mid 90s in the Mid-Atlantic April 20 & 21 with impressive upper ridging in southeastern U.S.

It is likely that this ridge also caused trained of tail-end of that derecho, which led to some of that flash flooding.

Tornadoes of note from this outbreak were at Fremont, Ohio (suburb of Cleveland) when a violent F4 struck.  HOWEVER, it appears this occurred ahead of the main line with a supercell.  Even with strong southwest flow, one would wonder if the lake breeze was an influence or a wind shift from south to southwest well south of the warm front.

The serial derecho struck Indiana & during the morning of April 21 & this supercell & tornado occurred on April 20 at 3 p.m.

Even in image below of a serial derecho from 2011, notice discrete activity in northern Ohio ahead of the main event.

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TODAY……..

Today was nice & warm with the warmest day so far this year in our northern counties!

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT……..

Tonight-Wednesday…….

It is still warm tonight & damp with a true feeling of spring!  It even smells like spring (fresh, damp soil).

We received just a trace of rainfall at WLFI, but our northwestern areas have received anywhere from 0.10 to 0.40″ of rainfall.  Our southern counties received a trace to 0.06″.  Our Rensselaer station measured 0.26″ & the Jasper County Airport recorded 0.20″ as of 9:54 p.m.

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Scattered showers/t’showers will exit tonight.  Rainfall will not be impressive at 0.10″ to perhaps as high as 0.30″.

This will be followed by a windy Tuesday with highs at 57-65.  North winds may gust to 35 mph with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds.  The clouds will be more numerous in our northeastern counties.

Frost/light freezing is likely tomorrow night with lows of 30-33, followed by a mostly sunny & less windy Wednesday.  Highs will run 58-65 with increasing high clouds late in the day as a warm front approaches.

Supercells are likely Minnesota to Texas Wednesday with wind, tornadoes & large hail. 

Thursday-Next Wednesday (Which Is April 30)………..

With highs in the 70s, southwest winds may gust to 35 mph Thursday.

A line of showers/storms likely here Thursday evening with potential of some scattered severe straight-line wind gusts here.

Over the weekend, with our cooler weather, upper low spinning in the Southwest will bring multiple rounds of severe t’storms with wind, hail & tornadoes from Texas to Kansas & Louisiana to perhaps as far north as southern Missouri.

This severe weather threat may extend into the Deep South on next Monday-Tuesday, while rain may get as far north as Indianapolis.

However, we look dry………………….for now……………….with highs in the 50s to around 60 (with partly cloudy skies).  Strong Canadian surface high to our north should protect us from rain, but it will be rather cool.

This is a tight-rope on how far north this rain will get & a close call, stay tuned.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW APRIL 26-MAY 7.

In terms of frost/light freeze…………Saturday night look to drop to 30-33 & Sunday night, 31-36.

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May 1-4……….

Upper trough will bring cold pocket aloft through around May 2-3.  This will tend to bring some scattered instabilityshowers/t’showers with perhaps some graupal.  Highs May 1-4 will run 56-64 with lows in the 30s & 40s, it appears.  Looks like we may even have some patchy frost during this time, especially on the night of May 4.  I think Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass & Miami counties could drop to 31 or 32.  Surface high looks to be right overhead.  The rainfall does not look heavy or significant.

May 5-7…………..

A brief return to 65-70, then seems likely May 6 (61-66 May 5).  In terms of rainfall, there is a shortwave & cool front that may pass May 6, but rainfall with it looks insignificant with 59-65 May 7.

May 7-9………….

A surge of warmth seems likely after the May 9 time frame with 80s.

OVERALL, PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY & COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY MAY.


Outlook to May 9

April 21st, 2014 at 6:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

 I WILL HAVE MORE GRAPHICS WITH THIS POST SOON…………

NOW-SUNDAY NIGHT……..

Tonight-Wednesday…….

Scattered showers/t’showers will exit tonight.  Rainfall will not be impressive at 0.10″ to perhaps as high as 0.30″.

This will be followed by a windy Tuesday with highs at 57-65.  North winds may gust to 35 mph with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds.  The clouds will be more numerous in our northeastern counties.

Frost/light freezing is likely tomorrow night with lows of 30-33, followed by a mostly sunny & less windy Wednesday.  Highs will run 58-65 with increasing high clouds late in the day as a warm front approaches.

Supercells are likely Minnesota to Texas Wednesday with wind, tornadoes & large hail. 

Thursday-Next Wednesday (Which Is April 30)………..

With highs in the 70s, southwest winds may gust to 35 mph Thursday.

A line of showers/storms likely here Thursday evening with potential of some scattered severe straight-line wind gusts here.

Over the weekend, with our cooler weather, upper low spinning in the Southwest will bring multiple rounds of severe t’storms with wind, hail & tornadoes from Texas to Kansas & Louisiana to perhaps as far north as southern Missouri.

This severe weather threat may extend into the Deep South on next Monday-Tuesday, while rain may get as far north as Indianapolis.

However, we look dry………………….for now……………….with highs in the 50s to around 60 (with partly cloudy skies).  Strong Canadian surface high to our north should protect us from rain, but it will be rather cool.

This is a tight-rope on how far north this rain will get & a close call, stay tuned.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW APRIL 26-MAY 7.

In terms of frost/light freeze…………Saturday night look to drop to 30-33 & Sunday night, 31-36.

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May 1-4……….

Upper trough will bring cold pocket aloft through around May 2-3.  This will tend to bring some scattered instabilityshowers/t’showers with perhaps some graupal.  Highs May 1-4 will run 56-64 with lows in the 30s & 40s, it appears.  Looks like we may even have some patchy frost during this time, especially on the night of May 4.  I think Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass & Miami counties could drop to 31 or 32.  Surface high looks to be right overhead.  The rainfall does not look heavy or significant.

May 5-7…………..

A brief return to 65-70, then seems likely May 6 (61-66 May 5).  In terms of rainfall, there is a shortwave & cool front that may pass May 6, but rainfall with it looks insignificant with 59-65 May 7.

May 7-9………….

A surge of warmth seems likely after the May 9 time frame with 80s.

OVERALL, PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY & COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY MAY.


4:45 P.M. Update

April 21st, 2014 at 4:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We hit 76 at WLFI today, but with sprinkles, we currently have 71 with a south wind at 17 mph.

It is actually warmer in our northeast, where there is more sun & no rainfall around.

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Scattered showers & even some t’showers in our northwest are moving in as of 4:46 p.m.

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2:45 P.M. Update

April 21st, 2014 at 2:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Soils continue to warm!  Yesterday, bare soil at 4″ deep reached 78 at West Lafayette.  This morning, temperature of that bare soil was 60, the highest so far this year at 10 a.m.

You can see the progression of the average 10 a.m. soil temperature each week since the week of March 23.

50 or greater at 10 a.m. is the threshold for beginning of corn planting (best at +55, though).

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It is not necessarily a lot of rainfall, but some scattered showers are approaching.  A few embedded t’showers are possible.

I still like 0.10-0.30″ for the rainfall forecast.

Tomorrow will be windy & cooler with north winds to 35 mph.  However, it will be mostly sunny with highs of 57-65.

Tomorrow night, frost & light freezing is possible with lows of 30-34 with the wind going light to calm.

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The Next 9 Days In a Nutshell

April 20th, 2014 at 11:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

1.  Some scattered showers/t’showers are possible Monday afternoon-evening.  Coverage will run 40%.  Rainfall totals will likely run 0.10-0.30″.  Highs of 75-80 look good.

2.  Cool-down will drop it to 60s Tuesday-Wednesday with lows in the mid to upper 30s at night.

3.  Warm-up to 70s to perhaps 80 possible late week with wave of storms possible.  Severe weather still cannot be ruled out, following one or two waves of severe weather in the Plains.  In terms of rainfall totals, it doesn’t necessarily look like a lot, but a 0.40-0.60″ rain is possible.

4.  Cool-down Saturday-Sunday may drop highs to 55-60 with lows of 31-34.

5.  Early next week, return of 70s will occur.


Beautiful Day!

April 20th, 2014 at 6:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has been a beautiful Easter Sunday.  For our northwestern counties, today is the warmest day so far this year!

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Update

April 20th, 2014 at 12:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

You know, it was interesting to watch the progression of spring in the main Indiana climate zone while driving to my parents’ place yesterday.

From West Lafayette to southwest Indiana, you could see the accumulation of heat by watching the vegetation progression.  There have been several days they have been quite a bit warmer than us up here & it shows.

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It is a beautiful Easter Sunday! As of 12:40 p.m., it is already 70 at WLFI!

Highs today will run 75-80 with an increase in high clouds, after 66-72 yesterday for highs.

Some scattered showers/t’showers are possible tomorrow afternoon-evening, but coverage will run 40% & totals still do not look impressive.  Even today, I have refrained from upping totals & like 0.10-0.30″.

Even tomorrow, highs of 75-80 are likely.

Behind this system, it will cool to the 60s Tuesday & Wednesday & lows in the 35-40 range are possible Tuesday night.

I think it will warm to the 70s late week, but strong storm system will pass.  It still Looks like a substantial/significant severe weather event from Minnesota to Texas Wednesday-Thursday.  Some of this may affect at the end of the week, but is unclear what the magnitude will be.  Though the Plains will see supercells, here, I think it would be a weaker situation.  We will monitor.

 


Remembering the Deadly April 17, 1922 Tornadoes……..Outlook to April 28

April 18th, 2014 at 9:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a nice day & it is a crisp, chilly night.  Cold air from Lake Michigan has surged southward into northwestern 1/3, but even other areas are cool (dry air & clear skies).

Saturday looks great with mostly sunny skies & highs of 66-72, followed by mostly sunny skies & 75-80 Easter Sunday.

Monday looks like a 70s day with some scattered showers/t’showers in the afternoon-evening with increasing clouds.

I am still not sold on a lot of rainfall for the area.  I think totals of 0.15-0.35″ still looks good & have continued to refrain from higher totals of up to 0.70″.

After slight cool-down, warm, windy weather with 70s & 80s will end next week with t’storms possible Friday.  We will watch for severe potential, but it is currently unclear what the magnitude of any severe threat might be here.  However, potential is decent for Plains severe weather event later in the week.

This will be followed by a brief cool-down with some frost possible around April 27 (30s) after highs around 60.

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Two significant tornado tracked across the viewing area on April 17, 1922 & the clean-up was in full swing on April 18.

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Surface low deepened rapidly on the afternoon of April 17, 1922 as it moved through our area.  The violent tornadoes seemed to 1) correspond with the surface low track (underneath it or just southeast of it), 2) rapid deepening of the surface low & 3) rapid arrival of the 70s into the area with period of sunshine after morning-early afternoon rain/t’storms.

Eyewitnesses all reported a very rapid strengthening & widening of the Warren County tornado as it moved into the western part of the county.

Photo shows tornado more like an elephant’s trunk in east-central Illinois & damage from Ogden looks like F2 damage.

Damage in central Warren County all supports F4 rating.

These storms were embedded in a larger area of numerous showers & t’showers.

Given the widespread nature of the rainfall & storms, obviously, the low-level jet was extremely strong & rapid intensification of the surface low shows upper jet streak passage.

The 20- to 25-degree temperature drop from April 17 highs to April 18 highs shows a strong, sharp upper trough passage.

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