It was a cold, frosty morning with Morocco, Winamac, West Lafayette COOP Station & Galveston experiencing their coldest morning of the season!

Lows This Morning:

After a wet, cold October, the first 11 days of November have been the driest since 1999 .  This has been accompanied by our average temperature running 5.7 degrees above normal here at WLFI.

Only a trace of precipitation has been recorded here at WLFI & this is the story over the entire area.  Our northwestern counties have had the most with around 0.10″ total for the month.  Even this is the lowest amount during the first 11 days since 1999.

It appears the next widespread, soaking rain will fall Monday.  Current guidance supports 0.75-1″ with gusty winds of up to 32 mph with this potent storm system.

WLFI-TV Weather Records for First 11 Days of November:

October was one unusually cold month, not only here in the WLFI viewing area, but nationwide.

Every single Lower 48 U.S. state except Alabama, Georgia & Florida was colder than normal.  October 2009 ranked in the top 5 coldest in 11 states!  Oklahoma experienced its coldest October on record.

Statewide, Indiana had the 12th coldest October on record.

October was one wet month for much of the U.S.  43 of the Lower 48 states had above normal precipitation.

Iowa, Arkansas & Louisiana had their wettest October on record.  19 of 48 states had October 2009 rank in the top 10 wettest:

Illinois, Mississippi:  2nd Wettest

Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kentucky:  3rd Wettest

Alabama, Delaware:  4th Wettest

Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, North Dakota:  5th Wettest

Rainfall-wise, the next best potential of a widespread soaking rain is Monday.

Swept clean by “Ida” is will take a while for the Gulf to re-charge & thus provide moisture for this system.

Interestingly, it is this system that will develop as a chunk of energy breaks off our Alaskan blizzard & forms this system in the High Plains.

Mild temperatures return this week with a peak in the warm-up Friday with 64-69 for the high temperature.

This is not particularly abnormal.

Looking at the past 30 years, the average last occurrence of 70 is the first week of November & the last occurrence of 65 is late November.

Highs in the 40s will arrive Tuesday behind our Monday storm system.

2 major blizzards with a trough & brutal cold will generally promote ridging or zonal flow with mild temperatures & only brief cool snaps through November 20.

Case in point:  the chill on Tuesday will be short-lived as a mild airmass returns by late next week with 60 possible.

Is 60 rare for November 19?

No, not really, as the 30-year average last occurrence of 60 area-wide is between November 29 & December 5.

There are indications that an expanding Pacific ridge may bump, at the very least, a chunk of cold air southward towards the Midwest just in time for Thanksgiving.

This needs to be watched as unseasonably frigid air pools over Alaska, Siberia & the Yukon with a trough with  a couple of major blizzards.

This will be an upcoming weather story if the ridge does expanding sufficiently.  The more it expands, the greater the chunk of Arctic air that arrives here near Thanksgiving.

Mary Anne Best of Remington had a great question in regards to my early predictions for Thanksgiving.  Thanks for the email Mary Anne!

I will have a sneak peak at Thanksgiving tonight in my entry after 11 p.m.

Chris McNew of Tipton had a great question too.  He was wondering if I am  changing any aspect of my winter outlook yet.  Thanks for the email Chris!

Well, my whole thinking with my outlook done in September was for an early start to winter with a dusting of snow by Halloween, our first +1″ snow in early November, then a nice Indian Summer in late November.

It appeared December would be rather snowy & cold with those below-normal temperatures.

Then, I went for a long stretch of mild weather with lots of rain in January, before snow, cold & below-normal temperatures arrive for February.

I went for a nice start to a “false spring” in mid-late March with dry weather & temperatures in the 70s to near 80, before April turned cold & wet for the first half of the month.

Well, obviously, the Indian Summer weather is in early-mid November & not late November.  Some areas have had their first flakes of the season (back in late October), but no measurable snow has been recorded.  Reports of snowflakes have already come from Benton, Clinton, Montgomery, Carroll & Newton counties from late October.

That said, I am not going to make any changes yet.  In my gut, I still believe the bottom will fall out for the latter half of the month.  It just appears Indian Summer is early-mid November & not late November.

In terms of snowfall, I am thinking, at the very least, some snow showers with at least patchy accumulation by Thanksgiving.

There is a reservoir of bitter cold in Alaska right now & all it would take would be for a ridge to bump & dislodge & chunk southward towards our area.  That old Asian typhoon & its trough & blizzard will keep the cold bottled there for awhile.

At the present time, it appears at least a chunk of chill may break off next week & arrive here.

I will have more in my new entry later this evening.

This is data from the West Lafayette COOP station.

These are yearly the dates of the last 70, 65-69 & 60-64 temperatures with the average last date of each 1978-2008.

This gives you a goo d idea of when the last hurrah of warmth normally occurs in the fall or early winter.

I will have other communities with long-range weather stations later.

Temperatures will be cooler, despite sunshine on Veteran’s Day.

Highs will be 52-55 degrees.

An old Asian typhooon will hit southern Alaska as a blizzard with the barometric pressure of a Category 3-4 hurricane.  As this tremendous storm deepens & carves a trough in the Pacific Northwest & western Canada, a ridge will develop in the eastern U.S.

This means warm weather late this week with 65-69 degrees by Friday.

This deepening trough will dislodge & pump warmth into the Midwest by Friday.

The next significant system will affect us on Monday with wind & rain.

This will be the next best potential of a widespread, significant rain.

The coldest air since October with highs in the 40s will dump in behind this storm system.

This system will form as a piece of energy breaks off the huge Alaskan storm.

This will form into our potent storm, especially just east of the Rockies, in the Plains.

This system could bring south wind gusts to 32 mph & the most rain since October 30, since the Gulf will open up after being swept clean by “Ida”.

At the present time, guidance suggests  0.80-1.10″ across the viewing area.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY CHANGES…………

Much colder will dump in behind system with the coolest air since late October.

I am getting 11 pm cast together & will have a new blog entry after the newscast!

Hope everyone is having a great evening & enjoying the mild weather!

The high temperature at WLFI-TV on Sunday reached 73.2 degrees, making it the warmest day since September 27, when the high temperature was 74.

Having November temperatures surpass peak October levels is very rare in our area.

The last time this occurred at the West Lafayette COOP station was in 1987 when the highest temperature in October occurred on the 17th with 74 degrees.  This was eclipsed by a higher temperature in November on the 4th with 77 degrees.

Many other areas had their warmest temperatures since late September!

Having said that, low 70s being the warmest readings since late September gives credence to the magnitude of our chilly, wet October!

Sunday High Temperatures:

The high temperature at WLFI Saturday reached 72.1 degrees, making it the warmest day since October 21, when the temperature reached 72.3.

This was only 0.2 of a degrees from eclipsing the October 21 high.  Prior to October 21, the warmest day was 74.0 back on September 27.

For the entire viewing area as a whole, Saturday was the warmest day since October 21.

If we eclipse 72.3 Sunday, that would make it the warmest since September 27 at WLFI!

This weather is great, but boy, it has brought out the Asian ladybugs again!

Area high temperatures Saturday: