Today looks mostly sunny, but windy & cold with highs only near 28. West winds will run 15-35 mph in the afternoon. Tonight, wind will go calm & with clear skies & some crusty snow pack over a chunk of the area, lows near 6 are likely.
Tomorrow, high/mid clouds will begin to increase with southeast winds increasing to 10-15 mph & highs near 30.
Tomorrow Night-Saturday Morning:
We may drop to 26 by 9 p.m. tomorrow night, but then rise to 31 by 5 a.m. as skies go cloudy. However, before we rise above freezing, some scattered freezing rain & sleet showers are possible after 2 a.m. The freezing line will work northward through the viewing area & be to Winamac & Rochester by 8 a.m. Any precipitation looks light (trace-0.04″), but still watch for slick areas on roads. Even a thing glaze will create hazardous driving conditions.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY AFTERNOON…………….
As for Saturday midday-afternoon, a scattering of rain showers are possible with cloudy skies. South winds at 10-20 mph will push temperature into the mid 40s by evening. It would likely be higher, if not for the melting of up to 7″ of snowfall in western Kentucky. Scattered rain showers & even a few t’storms are possible Saturday evening-night.
Our STRONG storm system will begin to really affect us Sunday. Bands of widespread rainfall with a few embedded t’storms will pivot through our area with strong southeast to south winds gusting to 40 mph. However, temperatures will rise into the 50s.
Sunday evening, around 8 p.m., models shows a surface low at around 982 mb near Chicago southwest winds here to 40 mph & perhaps a broken, low-topped squall line racing northeastward along strong surface cold front knifing through eastern Illinois & southwestern Indiana.
Although severe weather event is likely Texas to the Carolinas (some tornadoes, too), closer to the strong surface low in Illinois, it does look like up to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE will arise in Kentucky & up to 400 J/kg perhaps in southwestern Indiana. This may bring sporadic severe gusts to that area. Here, looks like a gusty, squally rain band.
A total of 1-2″ of rainfall is possible over our area, much of it falling Sunday.
As low reaches 980 mb near Grand Rapids, Michigan by Sunday night, west winds may gust to 45 mph in our area with scattered showers pivoting around the strong storm system. Wind Advisories/High Wind Warnings are possible from Wisconsin to Illinois & Indiana (better chance of High Wind Warnings northwest of our area).
Our high temperature for Monday will likely occur near 1 a.m. in the mid to upper 50s. We will be down to 40 by Monday morning stay in the lower 40s all day with a howling west/southwest wind to 45 mph with any showers exiting & some of the low clouds breaking as potent, tightly-wound low rapidly pivots into western Ontario.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT……………
After 25-30 Monday night, near 40 will suffice for Tuesday with partly cloudy skies, followed by 20s Tuesday night.
It still looks windy through Tuesday with gusts to 40 mph.
The wind may back off Tuesday evening, then crank right back up for Tuesday night-Wednesday as yet another strong cold front works through. Gusts may reach 35 mph from the west, then northwest. Front looks dry at the moment.
Highs in the 30s to 40 seem reasonable for Wednesday with lows in the 20s.
It appears that Thanksgiving could be a weather transition day for us. We may start out with some sun & south winds at 10-15 mph with highs perhaps to the 40s. However, there are signs of a gusty clipper.
It may be a situation where we turn quickly cloudy late morning-midday with southwest winds to 30 mph, then front blasts through with falling temperatures into the 20s by evening with northwest winds to 40 mph & the development of snow showers.
It is not out of the question that 1″ or less may accumulate in the afternoon-evening.
KEEP in mind that these clippers are finicky in timing & strength & it is often hard for models to keep up with them. This is the latest trend, so stay tuned.
Should this happen, we could be down to 13 with flurries on Black Friday morning & northwest winds to 40 mph (wind chills below zero).
At the moment, Black Friday looks like highs in the 20s to around 30 with northwest winds to 32 mph with partly cloudy skies.
NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 1……………
There is a strong, water-logged system progged to approach California at this point, which would tend to force a trough in the West & more ridging (warmer weather) in the eastern U.S. This is very, very welcome for California & may cut this consistently cold pattern for a bit with us.
Looks like the milder weather will arrive in early December. We shall see! This has been a pretty persistent pattern of cold, but hopefully the models are on to something here.
Beyond that, the current forecast pattern is very blurry at best.
Looks colder & dry with near 10 on the morning of November 29 with near 30 in the afternoon, then 30s on the 30th.
Latest data points to mid 40s & southwest winds to 35 mph with sun, then 50s & showers developing on December 2. Southwest winds of up to 30 mph are possible on the 2nd.