Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

1:30 P.M. Update

October 29th, 2014 at 1:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Low clouds from Wisconsin have ruined what looked to be a nice, sunny to mostly sunny day.  The clouds extend as far south as Indianapolis, but we still have sun in our southwestern areas.

Initially looked like they would get as far south as Starke & Marshall counties per model data.

The clouds will tend to break up tonight with 30s (& some frost), but not before highs today only at 50-58 with a strong, cool west wind to 25 mph.

There may be lots of sun early tomorrow, but clouds will increase in the afternoon with highs of 55-61.

 


General Outlook to November 25

October 28th, 2014 at 11:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Wednesday looks good with 36-41 in the morning, followed by sunny to mostly sunny skies & highs of 55-61.  Issue will be breezy conditions with west winds at 15-25 mph.

With clear skies & calm winds, lows of 33-36 are likely Wednesday night with some frost.

As for Thursday, there will be a lot of sun until noon, then clouds will increase pretty rapidly as Alberta Clipper approaches.  Highs of 55-61 look good.  After calm winds to start, winds will turn southerly at 5-10 mph, then southwest at 5-10 mph for the afternoon & evening.

Scattered showers are likely Thursday evening-night with additional scattered showers through Friday.  However, Friday may see the high reach 46-51 after 41-45 in the morning.  This high will occur likely near noon-1 p.m., then temperature may fall to 35-40 by evening for Trick-or-Treating.

As Alberta Clipper strengthens to our northeast, north & northwest winds will rapidly increase after noon with gusts to 41 mph.

If this clipper strengthens like some model solutions suggest, then gusts to 45, maybe 47 mph may occur.  Need to watch this wind.

With the wind, scattered showers, cold temperatures & perhaps even some wet snow mixing in, it currently looks like a pretty raw, nasty Halloween.

244

After around 30 Saturday morning & mostly sunny, breezy Saturday with 46-51, 24-27 is likely by Sunday morning with a heavy frost.

Strong winds & warm weather will be the story part of next week with peak temperatures as high as 65-70.  Southwesterly winds may gust to 40 mph a day or two.

It looks like a strong system pivoting through the western Corn Belt with rain/storms here.

Current data shows 100 mph upper jet streak & 55 mph low-level jet juxtaposed over area, but minimal CAPE.  These suggests strong, dynamic system, but low potential of severe, unless the CAPE in increased, which is possible.  We will monitor.

Current long-range data shows a strong likelihood of general above-normal temperatures November 11-24 with slightly-above normal to near normal rainfall.

This doesn’t mean there will not be any chilly weather, but temperatures will average out to be mild for the period.

It is good news if you are not ready for winter yet!

12

 


Warm Monday, Wet October………………Brief, But Big Change Coming

October 28th, 2014 at 4:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We hit 79.3 yesterday at WLFI, but the Purdue Ag Farm officially reached 81.  This make yesterday officially the warmest October 17 since 1963 when the record high of 83 was reached.  Had the clouds not arrived so quickly with an early evening shower & had the soils not been so wet, 83 would easily have been attainable.

This is the first time since 2000 that 80 has been reached at the Ag Farm so late in the season.

Officially, October 2014 is the wettest since 2009 when 6.10″ fell.  Since 1879, 2014 is the 13th wettest on record.  At the television station, we have measured 5.95″ for the month.  In the Purdue University/Ag Farm data set, that total would rank 9th wettest October since 1879.

201205

BIG CHANGE FRIDAY……………

Wednesday & Thursday look nice (though it will cloud up Thursday P.M.), BUT…………….

A brief, but big change is coming:

Friday will only see 45-50 with some scattered showers & strong northwest winds to 40 mph.  In fact, temperatures may fall in the afternoon to the upper 30s by Frenzy time.  It is not completely out of the question that a few flakes may mix in the showers before they end during the evening.  Wind chills will run well down into the 20s during the Frenzy with a low of 30 by Saturday morning.

With sun, Saturday will only get to 46-51 with lows of 24-27 Saturday night.

The good news?  60s will return by next week with strong southwest winds.  Some places may even get to 70 by late next week.


Afternoon Outlook & Rainfall Totals

October 28th, 2014 at 12:53 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Skies are clearing from northwest to southeast across the viewing area.  Our northwest is now sunny with temperatures surging to 61.  The after looks windy with highs of 64-68.

AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet & WLFI Rainfall Totals From System:

DMA Map II


The October 1862 Snowstorm……….11:45 P.M. Update

October 27th, 2014 at 10:51 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 23-27, 1862, an unseasonable snowfall event not seen again until 1869 swept through the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley & parts of the Northeast.

A strong system, it had quite a bit of wind & a large area of accumulating snowfall.  Snow showers/flurries were reported as far south as Memphis, northern Mississippi, Alabama to Rome, Georgia on the storm’s backside.

5″ of snowfall was measured in Lafayette with it on October 26 with 4″ at Cincinnati & Zanesville, Ohio, while St Louis reported 4″.  Over a foot was reported in the higher elevations near Charleston, West Virginia, but flooding rainfall occurred at Harper’s Ferry, West Virginia.  Meanwhile, flooding was reported in parts of New England with much of Concord, New Hampshire’s 5.40″ of rainfall for the month falling with this storm.  No snowfall occurred with it there.

Interestingly, the reports in Kentucky & at Cincinnati indicate that the rain & snowfall was greatly appreciated as it had been a very dry summer & fall.  In fact, the entire south & parts of the Midwest suffered through a significant drought in 1862.

Snowfall was reportedly light at Milwaukee & very minor at Dubuque, Iowa.

At Lafayette, temperatures fell into the teens by early morning on October 27 as skies cleared, but all of the snow reportedly melted on October 27.

From southeastern Indiana to the Mid-Atlantic, another snowfall occurred November 7.  2-4″ was general from  Louisville, Kentucky to Washington, D.C. to Delaware.

208211

It is still very warm as of 11:45 p.m. with temperature at 68-72.  Even where it has been raining, temperatures are still 69-71.

This, after 77-81 today & gusts to 39 mph.

213204202

One band of showers & a few t’storms has moved through our central & northern areas.  That has moved north & northeastward, leaving just a few spotty showers in its wake.

Additional showers & t’storms are lining up with the surface cold front from Oklahoma to Illinois.

This will pass through late tonight-Tuesday morning.

0.20″-0.50″ still looks like a good total for the area with a couple of isolated locations of +0.50″.

Current rainfall totals are in second image below.

Any rainfall should exit tomorrow, followed by clearing & highs near 66 with strong southwest to west winds of up to 30 mph at times.

201DMA Map II


Warmest October 27th Since 2000, But Showers & Even a Few T’Storms Will Increase

October 27th, 2014 at 5:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has been a windy day with gusts as high as 39 mph!  The leaves are falling off in heaps!

Today was unofficially the warmest October 27 since 2000 with a high of 79.  The high on October 27, 2000 at West Lafayette was 80. 

Should 79 be the official high at the West Lafayette COOP station, it would make it the 5 warmest October 27 since 1879.

202205204

Scattered showers & even a few t’storms will only tend to increase with time through evening & into tonight.

Currently a few showers are passingt through the heart of the area, but greater coverage is developing in Illinois.

Temperatures are 75-79 as of 5 p.m.

201203


Scattered Showers & a Few T’Storms This Evening-Tonight

October 27th, 2014 at 1:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

What a nice, windy, warm day, despite increasing clouds & a few showers coming by evening (increasing with time).

Dynamic, clipper system is dropping southeastward.  Showers & a few t’storms will develop this evening & then only increase into the night-tomorrow morning.  0.20-0.50″ of rainfall is likely area-wide.  Isolated 0.50″ cannot be ruled out.

1


Near Record Warmth, Then Cool-Down with 20s by Weekend…..Bigger System Near the 5th

October 26th, 2014 at 9:50 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was another beautiful day!  Highs reached 64-72.

DMA Map IIII

Tomorrow looks windy & near record warm with highs of 77-82.  Southwest winds may gust to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Forecast high in orange with daily COOP records in red.

DMA Map IV

Skies will be mostly sunny, followed by increasing clouds late in the day.

Scattered showers & a few t’storms are likely Monday night-Tuesday morning.  Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.40″ are likely.

Tuesday will improve with highs in the 60s.

Sun & 60s are likely Wednesday & Thursday.

A few showers are possible Thursday night-Friday morning.  Friday looks windy & much cooler with highs of 48-54.

Saturday & Sunday look cool with 50s, but the first 20s of the season are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning.

Windy & much warmer weather will kick in Sunday-Monday.

Near 5th, rain/storms are likely with perhaps a severe squall line nearby or perhaps here.  Some places may see 70.  Windy weather will dominate with a 1-2″ rainfall possible.

 


From 70s to 30s Last Night……….Near Record Warmth Monday

October 26th, 2014 at 3:19 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Check out the major drop in temperature from yesterday’s highs to this morning’s lows!  After 71-77 yesterday, we dropped to 34-41 this morning.  A dry surface cold front passed, but main reason for the drop was the extremely dry air behind the front.  Dry, desert-like air cools so, so fast, especially on a clear night with light winds.

Even today, evaporation is very high with the sun & this very dry air in place.  Dew points are running largely in the 20s with temperatures as high as 72 as of 3:20 p.m.  Interestingly, when the air is this dry, it may actually feel a bit cooler than the actual air temperature as the dry, dry air causes nearly instant evaporation of sweat & evaporative cooling chills you.

Tonight will not be near as cool as lastnight with 49-53 tonight as brisk southerly winds commence late.  That 49-53 may occur rather early, then temperatures will tend to level off & may even rise a bit.

NOTE:  The “High Temperatures Today” in first graphic were the high temperatures Saturday.

DMA Map IIDMA Map IIDMA Map III

Tomorrow definitely looks like the warmest October 27 since 2000 & will approach record warm levels.

Tomorrow’s projected highs, the record high for the date & year of the daily record:

DMA Map IV


Warm Saturday……. Latest On Changes Down the Road

October 25th, 2014 at 9:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a warm, breezy Saturday with highs of 71-77 across the viewing area.  With very dry air bleeding in this afternoon-evening, with the wind, there was great evaporation.  This caused a rapid drying of soils & corn crop, which is very beneficial to farmers.

With weakened stalks, it is pretty much 24/7 for farmers to get the crop out of the field in this window.  Very dry air with brisk winds will be in place tomorrow after a good dew & 37-44 tonight.  Tomorrow, 66-73 for highs looks good with sunny skies.

76-81 is likely Monday with wind gusts to 40 mph from the southwest with sun.

Some scattered showers/storms are likely Tuesday with a few showers Friday.  Next weekend will feature highs only at 47-54.

By next Sunday morning, heavy frost & lows of 25-28 are likely!

Bigger, moisture-laden, windy, warm system with rain/storms (severe?) will affect us around November 5.

DMA Map II