Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Warmer Weather Ahead

May 21st, 2015 at 5:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

What a nice day!  Temps are running 63-67 now.  40-45 lows are likely early, followed by a slight rise late as some patchy clouds increase with passage of a very weak front.  It is not out of the question that an isolated shower or sprinkle will occur with the front in the northeastern half of the viewing area.

However, behind the front, it will actually warm up tomorrow as warm air actually pushed east & southeastward from the northwest & large, warm upper ridge builds over Canada & into the Plains.

Highs tomorrow with 69-74 are likely tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.


Chilly Now, Much Warmer Times Ahead

May 21st, 2015 at 9:42 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There are a few spotty showers/sprinkles this morning, but some clearing is likely this afternoon.  Temperatures are in the 40s now, but will give way to near 60 to the mid 60s this afternoon.

After 40s tonight, upper 60s to lower 70s look good tomorrow with lots of sunshine.

After upper 40s to 50 Saturday morning, sun & 74-78 looks good for Saturday afternoon with 50s Saturday night.

Latest data suggests that any scattered showers/t’storms Sunday may not move in until after 8 p.m. with continued slowing of the next system.  Highs of 77-81 look good with partly cloudy skies.

It now appears that we may have periodic scattered showers & t’storms all of next week with warm, humid highs in the 79-84 range & lows of 64-69.  Total rainfall by the end of next week may run 1.50-3.25″ for the viewing area.  A series of storm systems will pivot through the area, keeping it raining/storming off & on for several days.  There will be periods of several hours with completely dry weather in-between episodes, however.

Severe weather potential in the Plains & western Corn Belt is a given.  Here, it may get close & flirt with us some.  I think isolated severe may occur on one or two days, otherwise, it is just your typical late spring showers/t’storms.

 

 


Cold Night!

May 20th, 2015 at 10:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The spotty/scattered showers are exiting & after 0.03″ here at WLFI, it is one damp, cold night wtih 44.6 as of 10:33 p.m.!  This is true Black Locust winter!

Clouds may continue to break some overnight, but not everywhere.  Some clearing is occurring right now, dropping temperatures to as low as 41 in our northwestern & western areas.  Lows of 37-42 look good.

With skies becoming partly cloudy tomorrow, it does not look quite as warm as it looked early.  I trimmed the temperature projections from 64-69 to 61-66.  North winds will turn northwesterly, then westerly.

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Tie For Second Coolest May 20 On Record

May 20th, 2015 at 4:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

So far today, our high temperature has been just 52.6 degrees, making it the coolest May 20 since 1968 & the second coolest May 20 in the 1879-present data set.  52 is the coolest May 20, set in 1919.

We are currently sitting at 52.2 as of 4:27 p.m. with some scattered showers/sprinkles around the area.  Scattered showers will tend to increase a bit this evening before ending tonight.  Temperatures will fall into the unseasonably cool mid to upper 40s this evening.

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Several Rounds of Showers/Storms In the Forecast

May 20th, 2015 at 10:43 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is currently 45 at WLFI, but Fairbanks, Alaska is also 45 (& it is 5:53 a.m. local time there).   79 is forecast for Fairbanks today.  The record high is 80 set in 2002.  As what often happens, when Alaska is unusually warm, we are unusually cool.  Yesterday Barrow, on the Arctic Circle reached an unusually warm (for May) 46!  That is more typical of July for them.

Chilly, raw scattered showers are possible this afternoon-evening with cloudy skies & highs of 55-58.  Northeast winds will run 5-15 mph.  With clearing, lows of 38-42 are likely tonight.

With the return of lots of sunshine, 64-69 is likely Thursday (41-46 Thursday night) & 70-75 Friday (48-54 Friday night0.  75-80 looks good for Saturday.

Some scattered showers/storms are possible Sunday, but it appears these will tend to be late in the day.  It is a close fall for the Indy 500.  Hopefully, they will all hold off until the end of the race.

Waves of showers & t’storms are likely Monday-Wednesday with highs in the 70s & 80s & lows in the 60s.  A total of 1.5-3″ of rainfall likely late Sunday-Wednesday.


Another Round of Black Locust Winter

May 19th, 2015 at 10:50 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Another round of Black Locust Winter is here!

May 19?  Sure doesn’t feel like it tonight!  Temperatures as of 10:45 p.m.:

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With increasing & thickening clouds & a north wind becoming north-northeast & northeast at 5-15 mph, temperatures will level off near 40 to the mid 40s.


Coolest May 20 in 15 Years Expected

May 19th, 2015 at 3:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After 42 tonight, tomorrow looks like the coolest May 20 since 2000 with a high of 57.

This would make May 20, 2015, the 5 coolest May 20 since 1879 at West Lafayette.
COLDEST MAY 20THs
1.  52*  1919
2.  53*  1968
3.  55*  2000
4.  56*  1986
5.  57*  1907 (2015)

FYI………..The coldest high temperature ever for West Lafayette in the 1879-2015 data set was 42 on May 21, 1883.  The low was 39 with dark, gray, overcast skies that day, 0.05″ of rainfall & a north wind at 10 mph.  The low temperature on May 23 was 30* & “ice formed to a considerable thickness” according to the observer in his weather log at Purdue.

A few spotty showers are possible, mainly in the afternoon, as skies turn cloudy.  Winds will be north-northeasterly at 5-15 mph.

With clearing, lows of 38-44 are likely tomorrow night.

With more sun, highs near 66 are likely Thursday, then 72 with mostly sunny skies Saturday.


Showers & T’Storms Return by Late Weekend (After Perhaps A Few Spotty Showers Wed.)

May 19th, 2015 at 9:40 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After partly to mostly cloudy skies & 62-66 today & 40s tonight, mostly cloudy skies & highs of 56-64 will dominate Wednesday.  A few spotty showers are also possible Wednesday.

After 38-45 Wednesday night, 64-68 looks good for Thursday & 70-75 for Friday with sunshine (after 40s Friday morning).

73-78 looks good for Saturday with sun with increasing clouds & near 60 Saturday night.

The good news is that the Sunday-Monday system may be slowing down some.  If this trend continues, then any showers & t’storms may hold off Sunday until after 4 p.m.

Periodic showers/t’storms will be possible through Sunday night-Monday with highs in the humid 70s & 80s.  It will not rain the entire time, but several waves are possible.  With the system slowing down, will keep showers/t’storms in the forecast into Tuesday.

In terms of severe, any severe potential appears to be around Monday or Tuesday.  Right now, it looks like spotty severe with more organized/widespread severe Sunday over the Plains to Missouri.

 


4:40 P.M. Update

May 18th, 2015 at 4:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Still will keep risk of an isolated shower/t’shower this evening on dew point front.

Coverage 20-25% coverage looks good.

Immediately behind the front, lots of sun & compressional heating is actually pushing the temp up as high as the mid 80s, before it falls quickly into the 60s & 70s in Illinois.

This will be followed by clearing, much lower dew points & cool lows at 48-52 tonight.

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Least Active Severe Weather Spring In 5 Years……Outlook to Indy 500

May 18th, 2015 at 11:28 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is raw from Iowa (40s) to Manitoba (32).  Check out the new wet snowfall at Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada DOT & darethehair’s cam:

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Near North Dakota state line (from fortwhytelive):

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LEAST ACTIVE SPRING IN 5 YEARS…………….BEFORE THAT, 23 YEARS……..

Spring 2015 is the least active (severe weather-wise) in our viewing area since 2010.  Prior to 2010, that spring was the least active since 1992.  Prior to 1992, 1971 was the least active.

This is measured by 1) t’storm events, 2)official NOAA severe weather reports divided by population density & 3) number of strong/severe t’storm reports in newspapers that were not picked up by NWS.

STORMS SOUTH & NORTHWEST OF US LASTNIGHT……..WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES…………

We had a couple of pre-frontal trough squall line segments of storms pass through southwestern Indiana, Kentucky & Tennessee last night & a supercell pass over Lake Michigan, but we missed out.  There was some isolated to spotty wind damage in southern Kentucky/Tennessee & Wisconsin.

This after 273 reports of severe weather in the central & eastern U.S. Saturday.  There were 45 reports of tornadoes from Wyoming to Minnesota to Missouri to Texas.  One tornado even occurred in Louisiana.

Skies will gradually clear today & winds will shift to west as humidity drops.  Highs in the 70s to lower 80s look good with near 50 tonight.  Dew points have dropped into the 40s in northwestern Illinois & 50s in north-central Illinois, while ours are still in the 60s as surface cold front passes.  If there is anything that pops today, it would be an isolated shower/t’shower.

ANOTHER EPISODE OF BLACK LOCUST WINTER…………

It is going to be chilly with another Black Locust winter episode Tuesday-Friday morning.

After some sun & cumulus tomorrow with 62-66, lows of 39-44 are likely tomorrow night.  Wednesday looks cool & fall-like with mostly cloudy skies, a few spotty showers, windy conditions & highs of only 55-62.  With clearing, 37-42 is likely Wednesday night.

Thursday will feature more in the way of sun & highs of 62-66 & lows Thursday night of 40-46.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND………NEXT MONDAY, TOO………..

Friday & Saturday look good with 70s (low Saturday night only in the 60s), but showers & t’storms are likely the day of the Indy 500 with highs of 75-80.

Severe weather is possible, given current forecasted shear, instability & dynamics next Monday.  Highs in the 80s are possible.  The exact details of who has the best potential of severe weather in the Midwest will become more apparent in the coming days.  It may be north, south, east of us or we may in the worst of the bulls-eye.  Stay tuned.