Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Strong Capping Overspreading Area with Intense Heat Working In From Illinois

August 24th, 2014 at 2:19 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Strong capping is overspreading the viewing area, as is intense heat.  This tends to put a lid on any t’storm development.  The best chance of one popping through & pulsing up would be Rensselaer to Burlington to Tipton & northeastward along warm front.

Temperatures are at/above 90 over a good chunk of central Illinois right now with heat indices as high as 110.

I have 87 with a dew point of 74 as of 2:23 p.m. at WLFI.  This gives us a heat index of 95.  Logansport is holding to 82 with a dew point of 72 (heat index of 87) just north of the warm front.

 


11:30 A.M. Update

August 24th, 2014 at 11:35 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Fog/low stratus is breaking up & burning off as of 11:30 a.m. in the viewing area.

The dividing line between the down-right dangerous heat & the more typical summer heat is at the state line just south of the stalled front.  Excessive Heat Warnings have been expanded to as far north as central Illinois, per NWS.  Where sky turns clear is just south of front is start of strong cap in Illinois.  It already hot there with mid to even upper 80s as of 11:30 a.m. in central Illinois.

Data shows 100 to central Illinois today with heat indices to 120 in south-central Illinois.  90 to 93 is possible here with heat indices to 99 to 106.

It looks very unstable in the viewing area this afternoon, but strong capping will be moving northeastward out of Illinois.  Regardless, I would like to put a 25% POP for storms in the forecast with front & outflow boundary from yesterday’s storms around & lifting northeastward.  Any storm that can pop prior to cap expansion or pop through in the afternoon near/along front could really pulse up quickly.

Data shows strong cap & 90s tomorrow & Tuesday with no storms with front north & northeast of the area.

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Extreme Heat Southwest of Area Today (Heat Index to 120!)

August 23rd, 2014 at 10:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The heat & high heat indices southwest of us today were extreme!

Check out the observations from Cairo (Illinois) Airport.  With 99 & dew point around 80, the heat index was pushing 120 this afternoon!

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In south-central Illinois at Salem, the heat index was near 120, as well.  The 15:35 observation was a 119 heat index!

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Notice Centralia (also in south-central Illinois) hit 102 with a heat index as high as 115.

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This intense heat is expanding northward & will bring +90 to our area Sunday through perhaps Wednesday.  Our high today was 88 at 2:30 p.m. (with a peak heat index of 98) before it turned mostly cloudy, then storms arrived near 4:15, knocking it back to 71.


Updates

August 23rd, 2014 at 4:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

7 p.m.

Back edge of the rain is running from Remington to Otterbein to west of Crawfordsville.  Dim sun is appearing in western areas.

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5:50 p.m.

Ragged, disorganized showers & t’storms are moving through the area with the back edge of any rain running from New Richmond to about Attica, Pine Village, Kentland & Morocco.

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5:23 p.m.

Even isolated wind threat looks much less.  Gusts 30-40 mph likely with the storms in eastern Pulaski to Fulton to Cass to eastern Clinton & Howard.

Torrential rainfall will occur, but the line looks more & more ragged & continues to be very pulsey & not the most organized.

Again, I would not cancel plans to head downtown Lafayette for Jazz & Blue Fest.  The rain has cut the heat (not the humidity, though) & it will gradually taper in the next 1-1.5 hours.

On a side note, I noticed the heat index at the Carmi Municipal Airport in southeastern Illinois is 114!  Southwest of Vincennes, Indiana at Mt. Carmel Municipal Airport, heat index peaked at 117 at 12:55 p.m. (95 with dew point of 79).  The heat index was recently 114 there.

DMA Map IIV159

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5:12 p.m

Its ragged-looking & not particularly organized (typical high-CAPE, low dynamic scenario with more pulsey gusts & bit of hail, than organized, well-defined bow with widespread wind), but two spots have best change of sporadic, brief severe gust:  E. White/Cent. Carroll & E. Montgomery.

Warning continues for Montgomery for a bit longer.

This complex has expanded enough that everyone is going to get rain out of this.

I would not suspend going to the Jazz Fest downtown.  Once this rain ends, it will be a nice evening.  The back edge of the rain is in far western Warren County.

162DMA Map IIV

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4:43 p.m.

Severe T’Storm Warning NE Fountain/NW to Central Montgomery counties.

60 mph core NW to W of Crawfordsville & gust to 54 mph possible N. Tippecanoe & 55 mph White Co.

WLFI gust to 39 mph from NW at onset, then in middle of torrential rainfall, wind suddenly went NE & gusted to 43 mph with greatly reduced visibility.

Torrential rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

160163DMA Map IIV

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4:23 p.m.

Lack of dynamics has made this a pretty ragged bow, but it is a bow nonetheless.

High CAPE may lead to a few isolated severe gusts & perhaps some hail.

At any point a random warning may come out with any of the  sporadic, isolated 60 mph gusts.

Measured gust of 39 mph at WLFI from the storms as they arrived.

Torrential rainfall is accompanying the storms, which may produce flash flooding.

They are moving pretty fast & will get out of here reasonably quickly overall this evening, but it may absolutely pour in torrents for a while.

Three areas currently have the highest chance of a brief severe gust:

1.  NW Montgomery

2.  N. Tippecanoe

3.  N. White

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3:30 P.M. Upate

August 23rd, 2014 at 3:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Line/bow of storms has elongated with a few renegade storms along outflow boundary lifting northward ahead of it.

Isolated severe gusts/hail are possible with it, along with torrential rainfall of up to +3.50″ per hour rates.

This should get through reasonably quickly.

I’d still go to Jazz & Blue Fest in downtown Lafayette, but you may have to wait just a bit before going to get the storms completely out of the area.  The evening will turn out fine once the storms pass.

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1:37 P.M. Update

August 23rd, 2014 at 1:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperatures & heat indices as of 1:37 p.m. are below (I did not include AWOS/ASOS as that data is not current………….I will in the next update map)………………Dew points are as high as 81!

DMA Map I

Despite not good dynamics, pulsey storms could pop out a wet microburst in such CAPE & high precipitable water conditions in our area today-evening.  +3.50″ rainfall/hour is possible in the heavier cells.  Such high CAPE could also bring some hail, as this makes for very fast updrafts.  So 30% coverage of storms along outflow boundary in area & approaching warm frontal zone seems reasonable.

Dynamics are not good, but there is an MCV moving across Iowa & northwest Illinois with complex of storms with front-end bow.

It is extremely unstable in southern & central Illinois with surface CAPE now pushing 7000 J/kg!  This makes sense as incredibly humid & hot it is in Illinois.

Our surface CAPE is approaching 4000 J/kg with an extremely humid, hot airmass full of energy.

Bow in Illinois may continue to develop southwestward along outflow boundary with perhaps cells on gravity wave emitting from the storms (storms popping through top of troposphere, which sends out a shockwave through the lower atmosphere), too.  All of this may also occur as bow develops a nice, expanding cold pool.

All that said, pulsey storms with wet microburst/hail threat will remain in the forecast (30% coverage), while we will watch that bow to see what transpires with it.  If a really good cold pool CAN form, I see no reason as to why it could not get at least part of our area & produce some strong to severe gusts given the very hot, unstable environment around & downstream of it.

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Hot, Humid & Some Sct’d Storms Today

August 23rd, 2014 at 11:34 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is very warm & muggy as of 11:45 a.m.

With the temperature already 84 at the station as of 11:50 a.m. with a dew point of 73, 90-93 in the area still seems reasonable today with heat indices near 100 (especially with boundary of really hot air lifting northward toward our area).

In fact, at 10:54 a.m. (an hour ago), it was 81 degrees at Grissom Air Reserve Base.  With this, the dew point was 81, giving them 100% relative humidity.  Now that is oppressive.  The Burlington sensor had a temperature of 83 with a dew point of 80 at 11 a.m.  These stations are near transpiring corn/vegetation, with the wet soils, which often leads to localized very high dew points, especially when the wind is light to calm like at the time.

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Outflow boundary from storms across southern Indiana last night has moved north & gelled with our old, weak surface stationary front (which is more of a wind shift line now from E & SE to S & SW).

Meanwhile, outflow boundary is surging out from complex of storms in Iowa & northwestern Illinois with its MCV.

There is also a secondary weak surface boundary across Illinois, which is more of a warm front separating the truly dangerous heat from the more typical summer heat.

This boundary is lifting northeastward.

All of this said, with our surface CAPE up to 3000 J/kg & our lower atmosphere uncapped (with a reservoir of 5000 J/kg surface CAPE already in Illinois), a few storms will likely form on any one of these boundaries & affect us this afternoon &/or this evening.

These storms would tend to be pulsey with isolated severe wind/hail potential with an overall coverage of 30% for the area per most recent analysis.  We will watch to see if the scattered storms can gell into a cluster & if that line in Illinois can form a good cold pool, expand southeastward with some severe gusts.

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2014 Severe Weather Events

August 22nd, 2014 at 11:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

FEBRUARY 20, 2014 SEVERE EVENT

A QLCS squall line raced through largely our southern half on February 20 with damaging straight-line winds & one confirmed tornado.

Additionally, rapid snow melt from much warmer weather & rainfall caused flooding & significant ice jams on rivers & streams.

An ice jam on the Eel River in Cass County caused flooding with a few home evacuations.  Ice jam on Wildcat Creek has also caused back-up flooding, resulting in several home evacuations.

The Wabash had a 7-mile long ice jam in Carroll & Cass counties, backing up floodwater further in to Cass County.

Pipestone Creek on the Cass/Miami line had an ice jam with back-up flooding being reported.

Event images & NWS tornado survey (note: tornado is not on severe storm reports map, as it was confirmed after this map was made).

Tornado was a part of LEWP in the line with one signature southeast & east of Crawfordsville & another north of Crawfordsville.  The one southeast & east of Crawfordsville produced the tornado.

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Track is based on radar data & NWS information:

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STORM REPORTS:

Hillsboro:  Small limbs down & shingles off home

Crawfordsville:  M61 mph

Tipton:  E65 mph

Atlanta:  M67 mph

Frankfort:  Semi overturned, leaking propane.  I-65 closed.

Northeast of Frankfort:  5 minutes of gusts of 50-52 mph.

Frankfort:  M55 mph

Kokomo:  M54 mph

Attica:  M50 mph

Covington:  M52 mph

Thorntown:  M62 mph

Burlington:  M51 mph

Logansport:  M58 mph

Montgomery County:  Several reports of shingles blown off homes.

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MAY 21, 2014 SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL & MICROBURST

The second severe weather event of the year struck today with hail to baseball size & one significant microburst.

Overnight, supercell/multi-cells gelled into an MCS that clipper our north/northeast.  Marble hail & gusty winds were reported in the morning in Cass, Miami counties.

The outflow boundary from these storms set up in the heart of the viewing area.  With nice northwest flow at mid & upper levels along with a very unstable, hot, juicy environment, supercells & multi-cells popped rapidly.  The high CAPE & steep lapse rates with shear from the stronger flow aloft made for lots of hail & a few minor to significant microbursts.

Storms also popped on the actual surface cold front.  As another core of stronger mid- & upper-flow helped to ignite these storms.

Eventually the cold front merged with the outflow boundary in the evening & as that even stronger flow arrived we had billiard ball to baseball hail in southeast Fountain & southwest Montgomery counties this evening.  Hail of up to softball size fell in eastern Illinois.

Tree limbs were reportedly downed near Kingman & Covington with 50 & 53 mph gusts.  An intense microburst around Lebanon caused tree damage & even toppled many large trees (one 3′ in diameter at breast height).  Power poles & line were also down.  In this 1.5- to 2-mile oval, winds may have gusted 70 to perhaps 75 mph.

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Images of the event:

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Ryan Harber (West Lafayette):  Storm over Boone County as seen from West Lafayette…………..

John Mahoney (West of Frankfort on I-65):  Wall cloud on back side of supercell that produced 1.75″ hail & 50 mph gust in Clinton County……………..

Autumn McGregor (South of Pine Village):  Underbelly of severe storms over Vermillion & Parke counties this evening, showing the mammatus…………………….

Beth Mantle (Attica):  Underbelly of storm from Parke County showing mammatus……………………

Lyndsey Gayler (West Point):  Mammatus over West Point…………….

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Other pics:

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JUNE 18, 2014 LINE OF STORMS

A line of storms with a relatively narrow swath of wind damage passed through the area in the afternoon.  These overturned the airmass & gutted a lot of the surface instability for storms.  These storms did struggle due to capping (CINH) issues nudging in from Plains/western Corn Belt upper ridge.

However, central Illinois missed the storms & was highly-unstable, hot & humid in the evening with surface CAPE to 4500 J/kg.  This advected back in & although it was more elevated instability at first, the storms & instability became increasingly surface-based with time.  That, in combination with good downdraft CAPE & lake breeze front & a slightly-bowing line of storms passed through in the evening in the “Ring of Fire” or periphery of Plains & western Corn Belt upper ridging, capping & heat.

STORM REPORTS:

East of Morocco:  Powerlines down

East of Morocco:  E70 mph

Lake Village:  E60 mph

Northern Newton County:  Powerlines down & on fire

North of West Lafayette:  E60 mph

WLFI-TV:  M55 mph

Lake Cicott:  Trees down

White County:  Multiple trees down countywide

Burlington:  M60 mph

Kokomo:  M64 mph

Delphi:  Trees down on Tecumseh Bend Road

Peru:  Tree down on power lines

Northeast of Thorntown:  M51 mph (Report Missing In First Image)

117DMA Map II

Images of the event:

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Autumn McGregor:  Near Pine Village

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Pam Leonard:  Monticello

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JUNE 30-JULY 1, 2014: TWO DERECHOS

A long-lived, long-track derecho raked areas just north of the viewing area during the late evening of Tuesday, June 30.  This did prompt Severe T’Storm Warning for far northern Jasper County at 9 p.m., but wind stayed just north of the Kankakee River.

Second derecho races east & southeastward, affecting area 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. on a very sultry, juicy night.   WLFI dew point hit 78.  Morocco dew point hit 79!

Storms raced southeastward between though they encountered CINH (capping) with southward progression & began to weaken.

However, they did produce gusts of 45-55 mph, even with weakening.  As they completely collapsed, extensive wind damage occurred in our far southeast & east & then in the Indianapolis area.

Aided by upper trough & ridge-riding shortwave, storms exploded on plume of very high surface CAPE in Illinois & Indiana, which had been capped all afternoon.  Surface CAPE reached 4500-5500 J/kg, which lingered after dusk & supported the severe threat.

Less capping (CINH) & more dynamics, but bit less CAPE brought the most widespread damaging winds to our northern & northwestern counties.

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Winamac Damage (from Betty & Teri):

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NWS Chicago has confirmed one EF1 tornado occurred in the June 30-July 1 derecho in our viewing area.

Embedded in the significant damaging straight-line winds, it appears a tornado (perhaps multiple tornadoes) occurred in northern Jasper County east & northeast of Demotte in an 8-mile path.

Below is image of velocity data as tornado was northeast of Demotte before lifting.  At this point, it was still likely as EF1.  Velocity data still indicated 95 mph winds at beam level about 4.5 miles northeast of Demotte at this time.

A tornado was also confirmed near Lowell.  You can see the signature of it in the second image.

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Tornadoes were confirmed in Kankakee & Will counties in Illinois.  However, extreme straight-line winds to 100 mph hit Morris, Illinois.

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Pics of the tornado damage are courtesy of NWS Chicago:

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TORNADO # 5 IN AND NEAR DEMOTTE INDIANA...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             NONE
INJURIES:               NONE

START DATE:             JUNE 30 2014
START TIME:             1049 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         3.3 MILES EAST OF DE MOTTE IN
START LAT/LON:          41.1909/-87.2613

END DATE:               JUNE 30 2014
END TIME:               1056 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           4.9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE MOTTE IN
END LAT/LON:            41.2240/-87.1138

SURVEY SUMMARY:
A 100-200 YARD SWATH OF CONSISTENT TREE DAMAGE...WITH NUMEROUS
SNAPPED TREES...BEGAN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DE MOTTE BETWEEN N CR 1150
W AND N CR 1100 W JUST NORTH OF W CR 1200 N. THE DAMAGE CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEAST JUST TO THE EAST AND THEN THROUGH THE CENTER OF DE
MOTTE NORTH OF 9TH STREET. JUST EAST OF DE MOTTE ALONG ORCHID
STREET...A BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND DOUBLE WIDE
MANUFACTURED HOME EXPERIENCED SOME STRUCTURAL AND/OR ROOF DAMAGE.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG W CR 1450 N NEAR THE END OF THE DAMAGE
PATH...THERE WERE SNAPPED TREES...WOOD POWER POLES LEANING AND
DAMAGE TO TWO FARMSTEADS. ON ONE...THE DOORS COLLAPSED IN A POLE
BARN. IN ANOTHER POLE BARN...THE WALLS COLLAPSED AFTER THE ROOF
WAS BLOWN OFF. THE DAMAGE IN THIS TORNADO PATH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 100-105 MPH.

IT CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT THAT MORE THAN ONE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN ALONG THE 8 MILE LONG DAMAGE PATH.

NWS has confirmed that southeast of Lowell to northern Jasper County, straight-line winds of 85-110 mph occurred.

EF1 tornado with winds of 100-105 mph was embedded in the straight-line winds.

Wind damage in Pulaski County consistent with gusts of 60-85 mph.  The northern half of the county was hardest hit with damage similar to that of Marshall County, where winds were up to 85 mph

STORM REPORTS:

M86 mph  Lowell

E85 mph  Wheatfield

E80 mph Northside of Winamac

M70 mph  Morocco

Numerous Trees Down In the Northern Half of Pulaski County

Tree Limbs & Trees Down  Northwest Newton County

Barns & Farms Outbuildings Damaged/Destroyed Near Demotte

Numerous Trees & Powerlines Down In Demotte

Trees Down Near Grissom Air Reserve Base

2 Power Poles Snapped at the Base  Grissom Reserve Base

Trees & Power Lines Down Across Western Boone County

Several Farm Buildings Damaged/Destroyed in Western Boone County.

Power Poles Blown Onto 75 Near Advance

Large Tree Limb Blown Down Along 75 in Advance

M66 mph  Grissom Air Reserve Base

M64 mph  Winamac

Trees Down Near St. Joseph College

Extensive Wind Damage In Winamac:  Trees & Powerlines Down with Structural Damage

M61 mph  Kentland

Tree Limbs & TV Antennas Down In Kentland

E60 mph Ladoga

M59 mph  Fowler

E50 mph Between Attica & West Point

M48 mph  Attica

M45 mph  Rensselaer

M44 mph  Fulton County Airport

M43 mph  White County Airport

M41 mph  WLFI-TV

M40 mph  Northeast of Frankfort

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JULY 14, 2014 SQUALL LINE

With arrival of upper trough & surface cold front, band of multi-cell storms with a couple with embedded supercell features, gelled into a squall line with sporadic strong-severe gusts & some pea hail.

Surface CAPE was a bit less (today 2500 J/kg) than it had been in a few days, but dynamics were stronger with up to 40 kts. of shear, good convergence to form storms & steeper lapse rates.

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Images of the event:

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Josh Raub sent this pic of minor siding damage in Lindbergh Village in West Lafayette.  Two other homes lost shingles.

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Other images of the storm/storm damage:

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AUGUST 21, 2014 CLUSTER TO LINE OF STORMS (WITH LARGE HAILER ON TAIL END)

A cluster of storms quickly developed on the evening of August 21 just northwest of the viewing area at the junction of MCV & outflow boundary from morning MCS, storm quickly blew up in uncapped, highly unstable environment with up to 4500 J/kg of surface CAPE downstream.

The cluster assumed a more linear, organized bow shape with southeastward progression as cold pool developed (rain-cooled air forcing the storms forward & fanning them out into the bowing line).  On its tail end, large hail fell, some of it up to full black walnut size (2.25″ diameter).  Also, a brief, tightly-wound rotation signature was seen.

Precipitable water amounts were very high with dew points in the middle to even upper 70s.  So, torrential rainfall accompanied the storms with a quick 2″ of rainfall in some areas, which resulted in flash flooding.

130DMA Map IIDMA Map IV

Images of the event as we were tracking the storms:

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Damage, Hail & Sky Pics:

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10:36 P.M. Update…………….August 22, 1947: Purdue Airport Microburst

August 22nd, 2014 at 10:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Tonight there are four areas of some scattered showers/t’storms outside our viewing area, but in the region.

Two of the areas are along the outflow boundary from our last evening & morning showers/storms (Kentucky to southwest Indiana & southeast Illinois & over west-central Illinois)  The other area in Iowa & northeast Indiana are just north of the stalled, weak surface front.  This front is slowly lifting northward as the heat expands south & southwest of our area.

I am keeping an isolated shower/t’storm in the forecast for tonight-tomorrow morning & a few isolated t’storms in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon-evening.

Areas of locally-dense fog are possible tonight, too.

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On a torrid, boiling hot day on August 22, 1947, a storm blew up & produced an apparent microburst at the Purdue Airport.  Equipment there measured a gust to 78 mph.  6 barracks buildings had roofs blown off.

The temperature fell from 101 to 74 in a matter of minutes as the storm quickly blew up around 3 p.m.

A massive upper ridge engulfed the eastern & central U.S. with extreme heat prior & the day of the storm.  It was one of the worst heat waves on record for northern Michigan just a few days before.

The storms & the few others that popped occurred with a weak front that pushed in from the northeast.

Overall 1947 was a brutally hot, dry summer, but unusually cool nights occurred in late July with near all-time record lows in the 40s.  This was due in part to the extremely dry, desert-like conditions that caused dew point to drop to extremely low levels, which allowed the night-time temperatures to plummet.

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Late Summer-Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer 2014-15 Outlook

August 22nd, 2014 at 6:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Weak to moderate El Nino Modiki will set up for the fall, winter & spring before fading next summer.  Modiki El Ninos differs from traditional El Nino in that the main area of abnormally warm surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific is more in the central part than the eastern part.  This results in different effects than what would be expected in a normal weak to moderate El Nino.  The last El Nino Modiki occurred in the winter of 2009-10.

Other aspects of this forecast pertain to anomalously warm & cold areas of ocean around the world expected during the fall-winter-spring in tandem with a sleeping sun with very few sunspots expected.

At first, it looked like an all-out strong, traditional El Nino with a warm winter with little snow, but latest trends don’t necessarily show a warm, relatively snow-free winter like late 2005-06 winter or 2011-12, 1997-98, 1982-83 or 1918-19 winters.

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The years that match the current ocean warming/cooling pattern around the world with number of sunspots & volcanic activity, as well as the past behavior & projected behavior of these factors was researched.  I found years that favored the current regime the most.

To put this to the test, I put plugged these years into NOAA climate data division program & it spit out what all of these years had in common for the winter & summer prior to the El Nino Modoki.  The temperatures matched up very well!  Notice the unusually cold January & February & the warmer-than-normal May & June (this occurred), followed by the cool summer!  This is what occurred this year.

So, we can say that the current pattern around the world & our regime matches well with the years I plugged in to develop this outlook.

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THE OUTLOOK:

Fall Temperature

September, October & November………….& Overall For the Fall

(The more robust the blue or red or orange, the greater the temperature above or below normal…………white is normal).

1.  Highest temperatures of the year will likely occur in September.

2.  Below-normal temperatures overall in October.

3.  Above-normal temperatures in November.

4.  This will average out to a warmer-than-normal fall, then.

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Fall Precipitation

September, October & November………….& Overall For the Fall

(The more robust the blue or orange, the greater the precipitation above or below normal…………white is normal).

1.  September & October will tend to feature normal precipitation.

2.  November shows a tendency for a bit drier-than-normal.

3.  This will average out to normal precipitation this fall.

4.  If there is snowfall, it would tend to be below normal & not amount to much, it appears.  Of the years, a trace was the average.  Only 2004 had 2.1″ of snow in the fall at West Lafayette with higher amounts in the north & northeast.

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Fall Palmer Drought Index

1.  You can see even in the years put into this data, the show that abnormally dry area in northeastern Indiana, just like now.

2.  Data tends to point to wetter conditions overall in the western half in September & drier conditions in the east/northeast of our area.

3.  In October, it shows normal conditions over most of the area, except some above-normal soil moisture conditions in our northwestern areas.  This applies to November, as well.

4.  Overall, it appears the higher likelihood of wetter soils as we move into fall will be in our northwestern areas with drier conditions in the east & northeast & normal soil conditions for the time of year elsewhere.

TVWS

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December, January & February…………….& the Overall Winter

Temperatures

1.  There is a tendency for overall above normal temperatures over most of the area except more normal regime perhaps in our southeastern areas for December.

2.  January & February look colder-than-normal with potential of the coldest weather of the winter in early- to mid-February.

3.  Per this analysis, odds favor an overall colder-than-normal winter when the milder December is combined with the colder January & February.

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December, January & February…………….& the Overall Winter

Precipitation

1.  Precipitation in December & January looks normal.

2.  A bit drier-than-normal conditions look more likely in February.

3.  Overall for the winter, data shows an overall trend to slightly drier-than-normal conditions.

4.  In terms of snowfall,  it looks either normal or just a bit above normal for December-February.  I think most of the snow will fall in January with perhaps one larger storm in February & other very minor snows in that month.

Normal snowfall in the area varies from 18″ in the southwest to 32″ in the northeast.  At West Lafayette, I am forecasting 20.9″ for December-February.  Normal for winter is about 20″.

Of the 10 years that matched our current one, 4 had one snow event with over 6″ of snow in their respective winters.  They tended to occur in February (see above for regards to larger storm in February).

AAbP

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March, April & May………………& Overall Spring

Temperatures

1.  March favors normal temperatures will below-normal temperatures just south of our area.

2.  April tends to show above-normal temperatures.

3.  May look cooler-than-normal over most of the area, except the northwest & west.

4.  Overall spring temperatures look close to normal, but notice the warm anomaly in the Northern Plains & the cool anomaly in Texas, Southwest & Gulf Coast areas, owing to El Nino earmarks showing & continuing.

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March, April & May…………….& Overall Spring

Precipitation

1.  March looks drier-than-normal.

2.  April looks a bit drier-than-normal over the northern half of the area, with normal precipitation elsewhere.

3.  May even favors a bit below-normal precipitation.

4.  In terms of snow, of the 10 years matching this one, every year except 2 had at least 1″ of snow in spring (all in March).

CDEG

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June, July & August……………& Overall Summer

Temperatures

1.  Analog favors normal June temperatures, but above-normal temperature trends in July & August.

2.  This will make for an overall above-normal temperature trend for the summer of 2015.

3.  The average number of +90 days for the year average out to about 21 in the data set.  I am forecasting 20 for West Lafayette & similar numbers for the rest of the viewing area.

4.  Of all of the summers studied, the average highest temperature following the winter was around 94.7.  I am forecasting a maximum of 96 for next summer at West Lafayette.

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Precipitation

June, July & August………….& Overall Summer

1.  June look a bit wetter than normal, overall.

2.  July looks wet with above-normal rainfall area-wide.  It tends to be one of the wetter months of the year, anyway.

3.  This reminds me so much of the 2010 July when it was very wet, but very hot in that several instances had dew points in the upper 70s to around 80 & we were as high as 95.

4.  A sharp drying trend is noting in the data for August.

5.  Overall summer precipitation rounds out to above-normal between a likelihood of a wet July & a dry August.

IJKH

Palmer Drought Index

June, July & August………….& Summer Overall

1.  As a carry-over from the dry spring, analog points to Abormal Dryness in the Palmer Drought Index in our northwestern areas in June.

2.  July’s wetness show a complete elimination of spring dryness & a chunk of the area with quite wet soils.

3.  Again, trends favor rapid development of dry weather in August with Abnormally Dry conditions developing in the area with the potential of Short-Term Moderate Drought, especially toward Illinois.

4.  Overall pattern shows bit below-normal rainfall in our north half & it average out to normal rainfall in the south half.

MNLO