IT FEELS LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY!
Scattered flurries/snow showers are possible today with temperatures at 20-25 & strong northwest winds to 40 mph. This will knock wind chills below 0 at times. Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely. Blowing & drifting snow will be an issue over rural roads.
Lows tonight of 5-10 are likely with breaks in the clouds mixed with flurries & snow showers. Wind chills may reach -10 at times. Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely.
Scattered flurries & snow showers are likely tomorrow with clouds & some sun. Less than 1″ of accumulation is likely. Highs of 17-22 are likely, but temperatures will only drop to 10-15 Tuesday night, then rise as winds go south at 10-15 mph.
A clipper may bring scattered snow showers Wednesday with 31-35, followed by 30 Thursday & 35 Friday & dry.
The temperature will SKYROCKET, however, by the weekend with 40s Saturday (after rising through the 20s Friday night) & 50s Sunday. However, showers & some t’storms will move in.
Data shows strong, dynamics system around November 24 with lots of deep tropical moisture & SCREAMING low-level jet with winds at 5000′ to 80 mph & strong upper jet streak of 125 mph.
There is a severe weather signal from Texas to North Carolina. However, there is also just enough instability for some severe weather from southern Indiana, through southeastern Missouri, Kentucky to Tennessee with 500 J/kg of surface CAPE.
Around November 24, model data shows VERY STRONG surface low pivoting through central Illinois with surface pressure down to 986 mb with howling winds around it of 45-50 mph.
The 70-degree line may get as far north as western Kentucky with 60 as far north as Lafayette & Peru.
Snowfall totals (CoCoRaHs, NWS COOP, WLFI Spotters):
We have not had such intense cold so early in season since the record-breaking cold wave of early November 1991 when widespread readings of around zero to the single digits occurred & a massive, historic blizzard hit the upper Midwest.
Prior to that, it was 1986 that had the intense cold so early.
What is noteworthy about the cold this November is 1) duration 2) sustainability despite even sun 3) number of daily highs below freezing.
Let it be said that the 1991-92 & 1986-87 winters were not overly bad after very rough Novembers. However, winter outlook showed a signal for below-normal temperatures & above-normal snowfall January-March, BUT above-normal temperatures November-December.
Despite low tonight near 7, this will not even be close to breaking the West Lafayette record of -8 set in 1880.