Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Latest Weekend-Next Week Outlook

September 19th, 2014 at 1:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperatures as of 3 p.m. are very pleasant!

The Purdue Airport is actually the coolest spot in the entire viewing area (all weather stations) as of 3 p.m., oddly.

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Analyzing all of the latest data, it appears that two waves of scattered showers & t’storms are on the way for the weekend.

Highs Saturday will run near 80 to the lower 80s with strong south-southwest wind after 50s in the morning.  Skies looks largely partly cloudy, except cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with any passing shower/t’storm in the afternoon.

The first will pass with 20-25% coverage Saturday afternoon.  Good news is that coverage looks low.

The second will pass Saturday night-early Sunday morning with 50% coverage.

Dynamics favor an isolated severe storm, perhaps two (wind/hail) & data has favored that for a week, but I didn’t want to put a lot of emphasis on it given the conditional threat.

The better potential of more widespread severe weather will be northwest of our area.

Rainfall totals will vary from 0.10″ in places to as much as 0.85″ under any heavier showers/t’storms.

The deepest tropical moisture of Orline will tend to fall west of the area.

Then, next week look great with 70s all week with lower 80s by next Friday!

Right now, still looks like the potential of a cool, fall-like Feast of the Hunter’s Moon to begin with highs in the 50s & lows in the lower 30s.


A Look to October 20

September 18th, 2014 at 11:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

What a nice day.  It will be followed by a cool 45-50 night with some patchy fog with mid to upper 70s Friday.

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Saturday will feature breezy conditions & lower 80s.

Some models still want to pop a few renegade showers/storms in the area as early as noon.

I am still not ready to warm up to this notion yet until I see data tomorrow.

Periodic scattered showers & t’storms are likely Saturday evening-night to Sunday morning.

Latest analysis suggest the heavier tropical rainfall will occur west of the area, lessening potential of locally-heavy 1-2″ amounts.

All models tend to be backing off rainfall amounts as the Hurricane Odile remnants tend to focus on the Plains & now less here with our front.

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Next week still looks dry & bright with 70-75 Monday-Wednesday with lows of 40-45 & highs Thursday-Friday at 75-82.  Next Saturday-Sunday could see 80-84.

Showers & t’storms are possible in the September 29-October 1 time frame.

Below normal temperatures with highs in the 50s & lows in the 30s are likely around October 2/3-October 5.  The first widespread frost of the season is likely & lows may dip below freezing in our northern & northeastern counties.

Around October 6-9 looks to feature above normal temperatures with sun & highs in the 60s & then 70s.

It does look like overall below-normal temperatures will be with us October 10-15.  This may signal more frost.

Rainfall looks near normal during this period of Oct 10-20 (normal is around 0.90″) after a pretty long period of below normal rainfall.  It also appears that temperatures will warm to the 60s to lower 70s after October 15 to the 20.

 

 

 


Another Nice Day!

September 18th, 2014 at 4:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

What another great day!  Temperatures are even warmer at 70-75 with sunny to mostly sunny skies.

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Tomorrow will feature 74-79 with mostly sunny skies after 45-50 in the morning.

As for Saturday, I like partly cloudy, becoming breezy & 80-84.  The new NAM & our Hi-Res Futurecast model does pop a couple renegade showers & t’storms ahead of the main band of rain Saturday noon to mid-afternoon.  At this point, I am luke warm to that scenario, though my confidence is high on scattered showers & t’storms Saturday night-Sunday morning.

Let’s continue to monitor & make a decision on whether to insert a 20% POP for Saturday tonight-tomorrow morning.

It still looks like showers/t’storms Sunday will tend to be confined to the hours noon & prior in the viewing area.  This looks to be followed by mostly cloudy skies going partly cloudy with highs in the 70s. 

Next week looks perfect with 70-72 to start the week & around 81 to end the week as each day after Tuesday turns a hair warmer.  The nights will be cool, though, with lows in the 40s for most of the week.


Largely Dry, Warm Pattern to End of Month, Then Frost

September 18th, 2014 at 12:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The only good potential of rainfall to the end of the month is Saturday night-Sunday morning.  Otherwise, it looks largely dry & pretty warm with 70s dominating (even a few 80s Saturday & then again later next week).

However, after rainfall at the very end of the month to around October 1, there continues to be a signal of frost around October 3 with highs only in the 50s.  In fact, temperatures may reach freezing in our northern & northeastern counties, per recent data.

There may be two or three nights of frost in the viewing area before we bounce back to the 60s to around 70.


The Unprecedented 1891 September Heat Wave…….Outlook to October 7

September 17th, 2014 at 10:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The September 16-28 heat wave in the viewing was unprecedented in its persistence & longevity, but also the fact that near to record hot levels occurred on an incredible 12 consecutive days.

The latest mid to upper 90s temperatures (in the 1879-2014 record) occurred in the area until 1953.  However, not other September showed so many 90s days except 1897 (record driest August-early October stretch & second driest September on record).

Interestingly, the summer wasn’t all bad & ample rainfall occurred.  The hottest temperatures of the year occurred in September.

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Today was a beautiful day!  Skies will tend to clear tonight with some patchy fog developing.  The fog does not look as dense or as widespread as this morning.

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Thursday looks good with east/northeast wind at 5-10 mph & highs of 69-75 with lows of 45-50 Thursday night.

Friday looks good, too with southerly winds & highs of 74-79.  With partly cloudy skies, lows Friday night will run just 55-60.

Saturday looks partly cloudy & breezy with south-southwest winds at 15-25 mph by afternoon.

Scattered showers & t’storms are likely Saturday night with lows near 64.

Sunday looks to have scattered showers & t’storms, but it appears the rain may be out of the viewing area by 3 p.m.  Highs will run in the 70s.

Monday-Friday of next week looks dry at the moment.  The first of the week will feature pretty chilly night with lows of 40-44, but highs will run from upper 60s to lower 70s.

By late next week, upper 70s to lower 80s cannot be ruled out.

Still looks like the next good chance of rainfall after Sunday will be at the very end of September to around October 1.

There continues to be a signal of a signficant cool-down with highs in the 50s in the first few days of October with the first widespread frost of the season.  I would not be surprised to see 32 in our northeastern & northern counties around October 3.

This looks to be followed by 60s by October 6 & 7 with some dry weather.

This gives you an idea of the trends.  Exact dates will change, but you get an idea as to what may transpire to around October 7.

Not much has changed since the last outlook.

 

 


Cool Start with Fog, But Beautiful Afternoon (Nice Weather Will Continue)

September 17th, 2014 at 2:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I promised I would have this on today & I was finally able go through the numbers & finish this list.

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Dustings of fall color are showing up on our WLFI Tower Cam!

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It is a beautiful day with comfortable temperatures & sunshine after a foggy, cool start!  Highs will max out at around 68-72.

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Looks like the nice weather will continue right through Friday with cool, crisp mornings in the 40s & afternoon highs in the 70s.

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Patchy Dense Fog For the Commute……….Nice Wednesday

September 16th, 2014 at 10:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have been talking about the wet August-September we have experienced, but below are exceptionally dry August-September & strictly September periods dating back to 1879.

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1897 was not only dry, but featured a record stretch of 90s for September.  A few days were even near 100.  Another year known for a high number of days in the 90s for September was 1891.

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Highs ran 64-69 today & we are headed to near 40 to the mid 40s tonight.  Patchy dense fog is likely.

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Wednesday looks nice & notice how model data continues to suggest a warm-up:

LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    9/16/2014  1800 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT 17                  /SEPT 18                /SEPT 19       
 HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 
 N/X              42          71          47          73       50    
 TMP  58 49 45 43 44 62 68 69 63 55 51 49 49 62 70 72 65 57 54 52 73 
 DPT  45 44 42 42 43 51 50 49 50 50 49 48 47 50 46 44 45 47 48 48 52 
 CLD  CL CL SC CL CL FW FW CL CL CL CL CL SC CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL 
 WDR  35 00 00 00 00 21 25 29 36 04 08 06 06 08 07 06 06 07 09 09 18 
 WSP  02 00 00 00 00 02 05 04 02 02 01 03 03 05 06 07 05 05 04 04 07 
 P06         1     2     5     2     0     3     2     2     1  4  5 
 P12               4           5           3           3        5    
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
 Q12               0           0           0           0        0    
 T06      0/ 0  0/ 0  4/ 0  4/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0 
 T12                  4/ 0        4/ 0        0/ 1        0/ 0  0/ 0 
 POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 POS   0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
 SNW                                       0                    0    
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N BR  N

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Beautiful Day, Patchy Fog Tonight

September 16th, 2014 at 5:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful day after low clouds & fog this morning!

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With lows in the 40s, patchy, locally-dense fog is possible tonight-early Wednesday morning.

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Wettest August-September Periods 1887-2014

September 16th, 2014 at 3:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  I re-added everything & also added the 1887-1889 data.  I will have 1879-1886 later this evening.  So, below are the top 20 wettest August-September periods 1887-2014 at West Lafayette.

It has definitely been a historically wet August-September period.  Parts of White County have received 18″ of rainfall since August 1!

At WLFI, we have measured 12.32″ since August 1 from the 8.60″ in August to the 3.72″ so far in September.  The normal for the entire month of September is 2.98″.

At the Purdue Ag Farm, as of 7 a.m. on September 16, the totals was 12.20″.

Putting this +12″ of rainfall since August 1 into local weather history shows that 2014 is 5th wettest August-September period since 1887 at West Lafayette.  This is impressive in that it is only September 16.

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Wet August & September!

September 16th, 2014 at 12:48 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has definitely been a historically wet August-September period.  Parts of White County have received 18″ of rainfall since August 1!

At WLFI, we have measured 12.32″ since August 1 from the 8.60″ in August to the 3.72″ so far in September.  The normal for the entire month of September is 2.98″.

At the Purdue Ag Farm, as of 7 a.m. on September 15, the totals was 11.67″.  After the 15th rainfall, it is probably more like 12.17″.  The exact number will be out on the morning of September 16.

Putting this +12″ of rainfall since August 1 into local weather history shows that 2014 is at least 8th in wettest August-September periods & is more likely 6th at West Lafayette.  This is impressive in that it is only early on September 16 as I type this.

The records below only go back to 1890, as I do not have the rest of my data in front of me, as it is filed at the office.  I will  have the rest of the data (late 1879-1889) as a part of the list tomorrow.

I will also have additional data on wet pattern tomorrow & a look at other weather stations in the viewing area & their rainfall anomalies for this period.

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