Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Longest Dry Stretch Since Late September Possible

April 27th, 2015 at 1:06 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some more frost is possible in low-lying & sheltered areas tonight.  What will prevent it from being more widespread is a northeast wind at 5-15 mph all night.  Lows of 33-36 seem reasonable.

It appears that the longest dry spell since late September may be ahead.  We had a 10-day stretch then before heavy rains abruptly ended it to start October.

We may get 8 or 9 consecutive days without any rainfall (figuring in Sunday & today already).  Some models do want to pop a few showers Thursday night, but I am not buying it yet.  We will watch.

It will also turn warmer.  After 50s today & 60s tomorrow & Wednesday, 70s will inch in late week & 80 is possible by the weekend.


Winds to 100 mph, 3 Tornadoes & Hail Over Baseball Size South of Us Saturday

April 27th, 2015 at 11:00 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Supercells & a bow produced winds of 100 mph, 3 tornadoes (an EF0, EF1 & EF2) & hail of up to 3.00″ (over baseball size) in diameter south of us Saturday.

The most widespread damage was from a downburst southwest of Evansville, Indiana, where 1 person was injured.

0520 PM     DOWNBURST        3 WSW SMITH MILLS       37.78N 87.81W
04/25/2015                   HENDERSON          KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 1 INJ *** PEAK WIND EST 100 MPH. THUNDERSTORM WIND
EVENT BEGAN APPROX. 3 SW SMITH MILLS KY AT 520 PM CDT AND
EXTENDED FOR 16 MILES TO ITS TERMINATION 2 NE ROBARDS KY
AT 545 PM CDT. PATH WIDTH 1.25 MILES. 2 MOBILE HOMES
DESTROYED. 2 OTHERS WITH MAJOR DAMAGE. AT LEAST A DOZEN
HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE. ABOUT A DOZEN BARNS, SHEDS, OR
GARAGES WITH DAMAGE TO ROOF OR SIDING. DOZENS OF TREES
UPROOTED. ABOUT 10 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN OR SNAPPED.
DAMAGE TO TRANSFORMERS AT POWER SUBSTATION.

0524 PM     TORNADO          4 SSE CORYDON           37.74N 87.68W
04/25/2015                   HENDERSON          KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-0 TORNADO WITH PEAK WIND 85 MPH. PATH LENGTH 3/4 MILE.
PATH WIDTH 275 YARDS. AT LEAST A HALF DOZEN TREES
UPROOTED. DAMAGE TO CARPORT AND RV DUE TO FALLEN TREES.
PARTIAL SHINGLE LOSS TO 1 HOME AND GUTTER DAMAGE TO
ANOTHER.
0812 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW WINDYVILLE        37.25N 86.36W
04/25/2015                   EDMONSON           KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

NWS STORM SURVEY FOUND EF-2 TORNADO DAMAGE
APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES NW OF BROWNSVILLE.
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS OF 111-115 MPH. PATH
LENGTH 0.2 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 220
YARDS.

0929 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE GLENS FORK        37.03N 85.25W
04/25/2015                   ADAIR              KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBIA ALONG DALE MORRISON
ROAD. NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED AND A
145-FOOT BARN WAS DESTROYED, WITH THE TOP
SHEARED OFF AN ADJACENT SILO. IT THEN MOVED
EAST INTO A WOODED AREA, SNAPPING AND
UPROOTING TREES. A MILE TO THE EAST, IT
DAMAGED THREE BARNS AND UPROOTED AND SNAPPED
MORE TREES ALONG MONTPELIER ROAD. A HOME
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MONTPELIER RD AND
OLD MONTPELIER RD SUSTAINED MINOR SIDING
DAMAGE. AFTER TRAVELING ANOTHER 3/4 MILE
EAST, THE TORNADO APPEARED TO RECYCLE,
TAKING A TURN TO THE RIGHT FOR ITS LAST 1/2
MILE, WHERE IT DESTROYED PART OF A LARGE
BARN AND SLID THE REMAINING STRUCTURE 2 FEET
OFF IT`S FOUNDATION, PULLING SEVERAL 18`
DEEP CONCRETE FOOTINGS OUT OF THE GROUND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BARN IT AGAIN MADE A
DISTINCT CUT INTO A LARGE STAND OF TREES
BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG RUSSELL CREEK JUST
PAST A BRIDGE ON ACREE RD.

 


Rainfall Totals…….Dry Week Ahead, But Patchy Frost to Start (But 80 by Next Weekend!)

April 25th, 2015 at 10:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There were intense t’storms with severe weather south of our area today.

This storm featured a well-formed inflow notch, highly-indicative of damaging winds making it to the ground.  These small notches embedded in storm indicate where the wind in stronger flow above ground is being tapped & directed to the ground.

Reflectivity indicated large hail.

Downwind from that notch, a swath of considerable damage to trees & powerlines was reported, which tracked east-southeastward.  A mobile home was destroyed downstream at Corydon, Kentucky.  EMA reported it as a tornado, but this is not confirmed by NWS & survey may be done.  These comma heads north of the notch can produced tornadoes.

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Our high at WLFI for today was just 52, but the afternoon high was just a raw 47 with strong winds of up to 32 mph to boot!

Thank you to everyone for your rainfall totals!  From stations plotted & data received, they varied from 0.31″ to 1.19″!  Heaviest band of rainfall appears to run from the south & southeast sides of Lafayette, through southeast Carroll, southern Cass & Miami counties with +1″ amounts.

After 35-40 tonight, Sunday looks better with sun & 55-61, but north-northeast winds will run 15-30 mph.  Patchy/areas of frost is likely tomorrow night & Monday night with lows of 32-37.

The good news?  All of next week & next weekend looks DRY & we will see 70s by Thursday & Friday perhaps 80 by next Saturday!

DMA Map II


Cool, Last Round of Showers Here………Severe Weather South of Region

April 25th, 2015 at 7:14 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Last wave of showers is approaching after a nice break, while supercells with history of large hail, wind damage & tornado continue to move east-southeastward south of our area.

Tornado has been reported south of Evansville, in Henderson County, Kentucky per EMA.  One shed & mobile home was reportedly destroyed.

22 counties from southern Indiana to northern Kentucky are currently under Severe T’Storm Warnings, while one county is under a Tornado Warning.

Winds will continue to be strong/gusty this evening with turn from east to northeast.

Skies will begin to clear later tonight with lows of 35-40.

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Two Waves of Rainfall

April 25th, 2015 at 9:05 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Wave #1 of showers & perhaps an isolated t’storm or two is moving through now.  This will be followed by a break, then second wave of showers later with gusty northeast winds.

Main severe threat area is well south of area in warm, humid air centered along the warm front.

Conditions are favorable for HP supercells there today with a few tornadoes & perhaps one strong, longer track tornado by evening.  Best chance of that is along & south of the Ohio River.

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Showers & a Few Embedded Isolated T’Storms

April 24th, 2015 at 9:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few spotty/sct’d showers are possible early tonight, followed by more widespread showers late-Saturday morning.

After a break, another wave of showers is likely Saturday late afternoon-early evening.

A few embedded isolated t’storms are possible.

Winds will increase to 20-30 mph from the east & southeast tomorrow morning, then relax for a while, then increase to 20-30 mph from the northeast tomorrow evening.

Total rainfall by Saturday evening of 0.30-0.70″ seems likely.


Overall Trends to May 17

April 24th, 2015 at 9:43 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was one cold, frosty morning!

DMA Map II

Good news farmers!

The pattern STILL looks pretty dry through May 9.   The ONLY exception would be tomorrow.  However, it still does not necessarily look like A LOT of rain, RIGHT NOW.  I still think the main rains will fall with the severe weather south of our area.  Current data suggests that the heaviest, most widespread rainfall of the two waves here would be in the morning.  After 60-66 today, highs Saturday will run from 50 in the far north to around 61 in the far south.

0.35-0.70″ of rainfall seems reasonable based on the data in front of me from mainly two main waves of showers & perhaps a few isolated t’storms.  We may have a few dry hours centered around midday-early afternoon between the two waves.

Also, we may get most of the rain out by evening, though confidence is not high that will will eradicate ALL of the rain by then.  My hope is that we will not need to increase these totals.  That would happen if a zone of heavier rainfall develops in a zone of lift well north of the warm front in the area.

However, after Saturday, I see very little rainfall or very little rainfall response until perhaps around May 8.

Clouds will increase today, followed by a few showers developing tonight & two main waves of showers & a few isolated t’storms Saturday.

Surface warm front will set up south of our area, it may get close enough to push the I-74 corridor to 60 briefly, while the southern part of the state to Kentucky will see 70s to near 80.

Severe weather is likely there with conditions favorable for a few tornadoes.

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Sunday looks better as skies partially clear with patchy frost Saturday night.  Sunday looks better with partly cloudy skies & 58-63 then patchy frost & 35-39 Sunday night.

Some showers have been the forecast trend for Tuesday, but new data is strongly suggesting very little, if any rainfall as any showers track southwest of our area.

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That said, made Monday-Friday of next week dry with sun each day & highs in the 60s Monday-Wednesday & 70s Thursday-Friday.  Monday-Wednesday looks rather breezy each afternoon with gusts to 25 mph from the northeast & east.

In fact, next weekend-May 8, there is very little rainfall.  There may be just a bit next Saturday with highs in the 70s to near 80, then dry & 70s Sunday.

As for next Monday-Friday, it looks dry, other than perhaps a couple showers early Wednesday morning.  Highs will run in the 70s in 80s with overnight lows in the 50s & 60s.

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718

By May 9-11, highs in the 80s & severe weather potential with more substantial rainfall is likely.

So, for farmers, it is catch up on sleep now, then go full throttle for many days ahead!

Thoughts are that after this wet period, we may cool to the 60s around May 13 for highs with a few days of dry weather, before more action with rain/storms returns May 16-17 as yet another upper low rounds the southwest U.S. ridge & pivots through Kansas & Missouri.

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Discussion On Saturday & Overall Trend Beyond

April 23rd, 2015 at 4:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Surface warm front may just nudge southern counties briefly Saturday, resulting in 60-65 there, but north of the front it will be cool & raw with 50 to lower 50s.

South of the front, quite a bit of severe weather is possible Friday-Saturday to as far north as southern Indiana.

Here, looks like showers & a few t’storms.

Models vary on how much rain.  GFS is most aggressive with heavier 0.75-1.50″ amounts.  NAM is less.

After this system, only a few showers are possible Tuesday & then it is dry & then much warmer later next week.  By not this weekend, but next, temperatures may reach 80 again.

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Lows This Morning

April 23rd, 2015 at 11:45 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperature was at or below freezing (30-32) at West Lafayette for 7 hours last night-early this morning.

The low temperatures all look relatively uniform at 28-32, however, that is only half the story.

The duration of the freeze (as mentioned above) was noteworthy.  Sometimes, it is not necessarily the temperature, but the duration of the cold temperature that may affect fruit blossoms/vegetation.

The duration of the freeze really shows our climate zone divisions in the area well.  This time of year, your freezes will be of longer duration in the northern half of the area.  The southwest will have freezes of shorter duration, overall.

Now, last night had some local wind influences & every site of a weather station has subtle differences, differentiating how long they stay below freezing.  This is often why freeze damage is so discontinuous.

Downwind of the wind farms from that west-southwest & west wind, freezing time was cut substantially, as we did have such a light wind all night.

DMA Map IIDMA Map III

 


Frosty, Freezing Thursday Morning

April 22nd, 2015 at 10:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is already 34 at Kentland as of 10:50 p.m.  Readings are 34-42 for the viewing area as a whole.

Widespread frost & freezing with upper 20s to 32 will make a little burning on those cherry & apple blossoms, as well as grape shoots in the morning.

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