Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

A Wet August! Hot & Humid with More T’Storms In the Forecast

August 31st, 2014 at 11:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

LABOR DAY WEATHER HISTORY:

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It was one wet August over much of the viewing area.  There were a few local exceptions, but by & large totals were above to much-above normal for the month.

Parts of Newton, Jasper, White, Pulaski & Tippecanoe had one of, if not, the wettest August since 1895.

At West Lafayette, August 2014 will go down as the 4th wettest since 1887 in the Purdue/Purdue Ag Farm data set (in process of archiving the records back to 1879):

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The heaviest totals, per Doppler radar, ran across northeastern Jasper to Pulaski County & then in a couple of bands from southeastern Jasper, across White County.  Yet two other areas of very heavy rainfall appear to have occurred in north-central Benton & northeastern Tippecanoe counties.  These areas appear to have picked up over 10″ of rainfall for the month.

Below are measured rainfall totals for the month per NWS COOP, AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet, CoCoRaHs & WLFI stations.

DMA Map IIII

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A few showers/storms may pop at any point during Monday as outflow boundary from tonight severe event to our west passes, but coverage will tend to run 20-30%.

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However, a squall line may affect us in the evening.  It may train some & with some lingering rain/thunder behind it into the overnight-early Tuesday morning, it is possible that a few locations may see +2″ of rainfall.  As usual, rainfall amounts will vary in the area, however, from 0.60″ to +2″.

Friday-Sunday morning 4.40″ of rainfall fell in Kentland & 5.00″ fell in parts of Benton County.

This said, given the wet August anyway & the t’storms on the way, the potential exists for some flash flooding Monday evening-night.

Scattered severe wind gusts are also possible with it & perhaps a bit of large hail.

With better wind fields aloft, these storms look more organized & longer-lived than the pulsey storms with isolated severe weather as of late.

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Perfect Summer Day!

August 31st, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a perfect summer day with cumulus, sun, nice breeze & dry weather.

It is humid, but typical of an Indiana summers day.

DMA Map III

 


1:43 P.M. Update

August 31st, 2014 at 1:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

2-day rainfall totals:

DMA Map II

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Only 0.30″ of rainfall fell last night at the Purdue Airport, but the Ag Farm received over 1″.

Kentland was the highest total reported from any spotter with

After highs yesterday of 81 to 88, today will will rise to 82-87 with skies becoming partly cloudy.

It will still be humid, despite passage of weak cold front.

Front will move back northward tonight with clouds (kept it dry) with lows near 70.

Tomorrow will heat up with highs of 85-90 with high humidity.

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Storms are likely Labor Day with the best potential in the evening.  There will be a lot of dry hours & it will be hot & humid & rather breezy, but data favors a squall line late in the day.

So, thinking squall line will blow up Minnesota to Kansas this evening with severe weather there, then weaken.  The outflow boundary may pop a few storms at any point tomorrow in our area with 20-30% coverage as it passes.

However, the squall line would tend to pop in Illinois in the mid to late afternoon & move eastward, tending to affect us in the evening.

This situation is different compared to recent rounds of storms.

The stronger mid & upper flow will actual move farther southward & overspread 4000 J/kg of surface CAPE Monday afternoon-evening.  The past several rounds have had the wind fields north of our area with generally pulse-type storms with isolated severe wind/hail threat.

The instability in tandem with the better wind fields points to an organized line of storms with scattered severe wind & hail along the line, not just pulsey, isolated threat.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given the high dew points.  Local flash flooding is possible, given recent heavy rainfall & the inability for soils absorb high rainfall rates (due to all of the rainfall fall over the past few days to couple of weeks).

For afternoon lower atmospheric profile, I selected the Lafayette grid point, but it is a good representation of the entire viewing area.

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It still looks hot September 5 to around the 9 with the potential of 90 or more.

After the hot, humid weather, a more early-fall regime will set up after September 10 with some low temperatures in the 40s with a few days of highs only near 72.


11:18 P.M. Update

August 30th, 2014 at 11:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Southern low has made it to Tennessee, but it continues to create juggerknot in not allowing our front to make rapid progress to the southeast.

In fact, even as of 11:18 p.m., front is just now coming into Benton & White counties!

With the slow movement of t’storms & training, up to 2″ of rainfall has occurred in some spots in these counties.

T’storms will continue to move southward with front, but it will take time.

Figured we could drop coverage to 25% overnight with the storms by 11 p.m., but they are holding together nicely with good convergence on the front in unstable airmass, so 40% seems to be needed for the viewing area as a whole for tonight.


8:07 P.M. Update

August 30th, 2014 at 8:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Surface cold front runs from Denham to Rensselaer to near Earl Park with broken line of storms along.

These are slowly moving into Benton County & eventually White.

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5:30 P.M. Update

August 30th, 2014 at 5:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Actual surface cold front remains active with at least broken line of storms, but it hasn’t moved since midday.  This is likely in response to developing surface low in the southern U.S. backing the flow to prevent a more southeasterly movement of the front.

It is currently over northern Newton & Jasper counties with t’storms & isn’t moving.

It will get the boot southward tonight, but t’storms will gradually fade with southward progression, it appears.

Nonetheless, will keep 35% pops for this evening & 25% pops in for tonight.

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11:55 A.M. Update

August 30th, 2014 at 12:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After morning scattered showers & t’storms (it poured over West Lafayette, but only sprinkled in downtown Lafayette), we are now in a lull with some sunshine & soaring temperatures.  It is 81 as of 11:55 a.m. with a dew point of 71, but the south wind at 10-15 mph makes it feel better.

Actual surface cold front is approaching I-57 in Illinois.  A few new showers & t’storms are just starting to develop ahead of the front.

Thinking more scattered t’storms will form along & ahead of the front over the next 1-2 hours.

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Updates

August 29th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

8:18 p.m.

A semi-organized line of gusty storms is moving north-northeast through the viewing area.  It currently runs from Crawfordsville to the Kankakee River.

Isolated gusts to 50 mph are possible.

Jim in Kentland gusted to 35 mph with 2.50″ of rainfall since this afternoon.

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Joel Vancel caught this shot of the storms coming into the Lafayette area:

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6:38 p.m.

Marble hail is likely near Dunn to near Free & south of Earl Park.

Will monitor to make sure hail size does not get larger.

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6:10 p.m.

Notice weather station near Demotte with a sustained southwest wind at 26 mph with t’storm.

Saw CoCoRaHs obsever east-northeast of Kentland reported 0.91″ in “20 minutes of very intense rain” & “strong gusty winds”.

I would be curious of any measured wind gust in that area.  Jim, I think you have an anemometer.  If you are on, any gust information would be great!

T’storms will tend to rapidly decrease in coverage after 10p

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6 p.m.

T’storms are moving north-northeastward & are tending to gelling into at least a broken line.

Locally-heavy rainfall, isolated wind/hail, lightning with a peak of 40% coverage will occur.

Outside of rainfall or rain-cooled air, it is very warm to hot & humid.

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5:36 p.m.

Scattered t’storms continue to develop & move north-northeast.  Coverage will continue to increase & peak this evening at 40%.  Isolated severe wind/hail threat is still in place & they may still gell up into a north/northeastward-moving line.

Pea hail was reported south of Morocco with a gust of 32 mph measured at Morocco with 0.57″ of rainfall from t’storm.

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5:09 p.m.

T’storm northeast of Kentland has 100% of hail with size maxing out at 0.75″.  Brief, local gust to 45 mph possible, too.

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4:12 P.M. Update

August 29th, 2014 at 4:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a hot one.  We just went up to 88 as of 4:10 p.m. at WLFI with a dew point of 73 making it feel more like 96.

Parts of the area are recently rain-cooled, but are rising back into the 80s again.  T’storms have gone through Fulton & Cass counties, but Rochester & Logansport airports are back up to 81 & 82 respectively.

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Scattered pulsey t’storms continue to work northeastward.

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3 P.M. Update

August 29th, 2014 at 2:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers & t’storms are moving through Pulaski, Fulton, Cass counties at the moment.

T’storms are developing quite rapidly to our southwest & pulsing up a lot.  pea to marble hail becoming increasingly likely with them.

More t’storms will develop & the coverage will likely increase in our area by late afternoon-evening.

Peak of 40% coverage with isolated severe wind/hail threat will be with us late afternoon-evening.

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Three main waves of showers & t’storms are still likely, but the best chance of isolated severe is still late afternoon-evening today (as of 3 p.m.):

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