Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Couple Showers/T’Showers, Rainbows & More Widespread Storms to Our South

June 18th, 2013 at 9:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a couple of showers & t’showers in the viewing area, storms over the past couple of hours have been paralelling I-74 from southern Vermillion to Parke & Putnam counties.

Rain did produce a beautiful double rainbow in Remington (pic taken by Mary Tyler):

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Even these will pull away with time & we are looking at skies going mostly clear to clear tonight (if it hasn’t done so at your place yet).

 


Few Storms Still Possible

June 18th, 2013 at 2:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few storms are still possible this afternoon-evening as vort max approaches & pivots through with mid-level cool pocket (shortwave) & a weak surface cold front. 

Isolated severe storm is possible with hail & wind, given the cold air aloft & layer of dry air that may enhance a gusty downdraft.

It still appears with 20-30% coverage, many of you will stay dry with just the view of some towering cumulus/cumulonimbi around from distant storms.

Better potential of a bit more widespread storm coverage & better potential of multiple severe reports will lay along & south of I-70 in Indiana & I-72/74 in Illinois.

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Today

June 18th, 2013 at 11:49 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

For part of the viewing area today will be slightly warmer than anticipated.  Temperatures in the north look right on target for projected highs in the upper 70s to 80, but temperatures are already in the 80s in the south (forecast 82-84), so a tweak upward is needed to 84-88.

At 1 p.m. it is already 80.6 at WLFI with a dew point of 62.

ADI Map II

Weak surface cold front, shortwave & weak vort max will pop a few widely-scattered showers/storms in the area today.

Coverage will only peak at 20-30%, so many of you will stay dry.  However, I would not rule out an isolated severe hail/wind producer given the cold pocket upstairs & a dry layer that may enhance a couple gusts.

Any showers/storms will exit this evening & crisp, cool conditions with clearing skies will move in.  Low temperatures are headed for 53-59 with 77-83 tomorrow.

The slightly better coverage & severe potential will run along & south of I-70, where surface instability will be greater.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 06/18/13

June 18th, 2013 at 11:26 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry June 18, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Another weak frontal system will pass through the Midwest later today. While initial forecasts had us receiving some isolated rainfall today, the latest models keep things dry across west central Indiana through the remainder of the current work week. Afternoon highs today will be around 6° cooler than yesterday’s as we hit 82° in Lafayette. Higher pressure will begin to filter into the Midwest by this evening effectively clearing out any remaining upper level moisture. We’re looking at a sunny and cooler Wednesday ahead with afternoon high temperatures topping out right around 79°, but as that high kicks eastward, our northerly winds will shift. Afternoon highs will bounce back into the low 80s by Thursday and some of us may near 90° on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Saturday along with some warmer temperatures. We’ll hit 89° that day here in the Star City before cracking 90° on Sunday with more chances for scattered rainfall.


Large Complex of Rain & Storms (MCS) to Our South Makes for Beautiful Sunset

June 17th, 2013 at 9:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We had a beautiful sunset over much of the viewing area tonight.  Ryan Ford took the first pic on the southside of Lafayette.  This was the underbelly of a large complex of rain & storms over Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky that brought spotty wind damage & very heavy rainfall of up to 4″ with areas of flash flooding.

The underbelly is the massive altostratus deck fanning out over the region as the tops of those storms.  Also present on the altostratus MCS underbelly was diffuse mamma, illuminated by the setting sun.

Weak cold front sliding in from the north (which brought [with shortwave] severe weather to Wisconsin & Michigan today) may bring a few isolated showers & t’storms tonight.

A secondary weak cold front may bring a few showers & t’storms to the area tomorrow.  An isolated severe hailer/wind producer will be possible.

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Frequency of 90 Degrees or More Since 2009

June 17th, 2013 at 3:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

So far in 2013, we have had only 1 day at or above 90 at WLFI.  This contrasts with already 9 last year at this time, 8 in 2011 & 5 in 2010. 

In 2009, we only had 1 single +90 day up to this time & ended up with just 7 instances of +90 for the year.  6 of those were in August with NO occurrence of 90 in July.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 06/17/13

June 17th, 2013 at 12:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry June 17, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Many of us rain into near zero visibility this morning as a dense bank of fog settled in over West Central Indiana. But now that the fog is lifting, mainly clear skies will drive afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Multiple weak frontal boundaries will track through the Midwest over the next 48 hours generating scattered cloud cover and possibly isolated rain at times. If we do end up seeing any rainfall, it will be isolated, light and very short-lived. Our southerly winds today will shift to northerly ones after the first front passes to our southeast, this will help drop temperatures back into the upper 70s by midweek. High pressure over the northeastern United Sates will keep conditions dry across the Midwest throughout the reminder of the work week. Our next low will arrive on Saturday with scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms.


Hotter & More Humid

June 17th, 2013 at 10:28 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We’ve done well with MCSs so far since Friday, as most of them have just side-swiped or all-out missed the viewing area:

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here were areas of dense fog this morning.  Thanks to Nick Clayton for this pic of the fog on the south side of Lafayette:

FOG

Models appear to be slower with progression of surface in latest run (12z).

That said, I still would be surprised to see an isolated t’storm or two today, the majority of the t’storms will be confined to Michigan & then Missouri to Illinois.

It will be hot & a bit humid today with highs of 85-90.  Heat indices will run 90-96.

Front will sink southward tonight-tomorrow.  I cannot rule out an isolated t’storm or two tonight, but as front passes tomorrow afternoon, a few scattered storms will be possible.  It looks as it reasonable dynamics/shear & instability may bring an isolated severe t’storm or two.  However, overall t’storm coverage looks to run at only around 30%.

Wednesday-Friday looks dry.  Wednesday & Thursday will have highs of 80-83 with lower humidity.  However, Friday will turn hotter & more humid with highs near 87.

Hot, humid weather & some scattered t’storms will be possible Friday through Sunday with highs near 90.  Daily t’storm coverage will run around 30%.

 

 


Outlook to July 4

June 16th, 2013 at 9:57 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Happy Father’s Day to all of you dads out there!  This was my first & extra special!

I hope everyone had a great weekend!

THIS PAST WEEKEND:

The weather has been pretty good.  We had the leftovers of Iowa MCS Saturday morning-early afternoon, then a few spotty showers/storms in the afternoon, but a cluster of storms in Illinois stayed away & weakened.  MCS that passed lastnight was in weakening phase.  After 80 Saturday, our low lastnight was only 67.

Even today, there were a few spotty storms, but the main complex of showers & storms was southern Illinois & Indiana, into Kentucky.  At this hour, storms are over central & eastern Missouri & Kentucky with quite a bit of severe weather in the central & southern Plains.

Our high today surged to 82 late in the day after staying in the upper 70s for most of the afternoon.

THIS WEEK:

Tonight:  Patchy fog is possible in places with some passing clouds at times.  Low will drop to near 65.

Monday:  Skies will run partly cloudy with southwest to west breeze.  Scattered showers & storms are possible late afternoon-evening-overnight.  Right now, severe threat is low, but it will be monitored.  Highs will run 85-90 with heat index at 87-95.

Tuesday-Thursday:  These days look dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies & highs from near 80 to the mid 80s with dew points near 60 to the lower 60s.  So, it will be warm, but at least not humid.  The nights look pretty comfortable with lows of 57-61.

Friday-Monday:  The heat & humidity will crank up during this time with highs of 87-92 & heat indices of 90-96.  Overnights will be muggy with warm, humid low of 68-73.

Much of the widespread storm action may stay to our west, but it appears some scattered storms will be possible Friday-Sunday (30% coverage daily).  These storms look multi-cellular & not especially organized.

Beyond Next Tuesday to June 28:  Some scattered storms are still possible Tuesday, but cold front will pass Wednesday, June 26.  That would be the next best potential of widespread storms & potential severe threat.

Nice surface high June 27-28 looks to bring nice weather with sun & highs near 82 with north & northeast wind.

June 29-July 4:  Wind turn back to the east & southeast on June 29 with 80s, but a few showers/storms are possible as south winds & muggy, tropical flow returns June 30-July 1.  These do not look widespread or organized, however.  Of note is the potential of tropical storm/hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific & perhaps in the Gulf of Mexico.  This is tied to tendency of a lot of disturbed weather in the Gulf down the road a bit.

Overall, the pattern July 2-4 looks rather hot, muggy, tropical with some scattered storms each day with dew points in the 70s & highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Forecast, outlook & trends will continue to be monitored with tweaks made as new data flows in……..stay tuned……


Update

June 15th, 2013 at 10:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Large complex of rain & t’storms is moving in.  There have been Severe T’Storm Warnings on the line segments with it in around St. Louis & in southwestern Illinois.

Increasing low-level jet may tend to maintain it, so isolated strong-severe gust possible along & west of U.S. 231 in an otherwise run-of-the-mill summer MCS.

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