Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

End of Heat Wave Still In Sight, But Better Idea of Exact Timing

August 27th, 2013 at 9:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a hot one again today with highs of 91-95 across the viewinga area.  Heat index peaked at 104 at Morocco.

 Highs tomorrow will run 91-96 with heat indices near 100 to perhaps as high as 104.

81521

Line of storms is evolving Wisconsin to Michigant to Ohio with strengthening low-level jet, thinking this will organize into an MCS overnight.  Although derecho status (even low-end) will not be reached heavy rain & scattered severe gusts are possible with it in Michigan to Ohio.

Here, its outflow boundary will pass tomorrow morning with a few pops of isolated showers/storms.  A couple more may pop in the afternoon & evening along the same boundary.  Coverage will run generally at 20%.

2228

90+, overall, will be with us until Sunday with a peak at 94-99 Sunday. 

Cold front will pass Sunday night with a few isolated storms.  Monday will cool to 90.  A few isolated storm may pop Tuesday with secondary cold front.  That will usher in the really nice, cool air.  Highs by Wednesday-Thursday will run in the 70s with lows in the 40s.

At least right now, it appears that there is no sign of any widespread, significant rainfall, only isolated storms.

 


“Ring of Fire”

August 27th, 2013 at 2:51 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a hot one!  Heat indices are as high as 101!

35

MCS or perhaps low-end derecho may evolve tonight northern Wisconsin to Ohio.  The outflow boundary surging southwestward may pop a shower/t’storm or two tomorrow morning in the viewing area, but any rainfall would be isolated.

A couple more may pop in the afternoon-evening along same, though increasingly diffuse boundary.

21


Update

August 27th, 2013 at 10:06 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We are picking up cirrus clouds from MCS over Ohio this morning.  We will have cirrus around for most of the day, but it will still be hot with 90-95 & heat indices of 95-100.  There will be a nice breeze from the southwest, though, at 10-20 mph.  Milky cirrus will prevent the temperature from maxing out today.

A couple storms are still possible tomorrow morning & Wednesday afternoon-evening.

Latest data brings the hottest day of the heat wave in Sunday, not Monday with 94-99 degrees.

Labor itself looks cooler with passage of dry cold front Sunday night.  Highs Monday look to be closer to 90 now.

Secondary cold front after Labor Day will usher in the much bigger cool down.

CURRENT RADAR:

1


“Ring of Fire”

August 26th, 2013 at 9:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs today ran from 88-91 in the viewing area with a peak heat index of 100 at Remington.

Temperatures were in the 100s in South Dakota & parts of Iowa today.  To put some of this heat in perspective, Minneapolis has had two mornings in a row with low temperatures at only 80 degrees after highs of 96 & 97.  It appears this last week of August will go down as the hottest on record in eastern South Dakota & parts of Minnesota. Pierre, South Dakota reached 101 today.  More of this heat will move eastward tomorrow, increasing our temperature some.

However, cluster of storms (MCS) will move from Minnesota through Michigan & into Ohio tonight-tomorrow morning.

Current trends still suggest this will stay northeast of the viewing area.  We will likely pick up cirrus from this system.  It looks like enough cirrus to cut the temperatures a degree for tomorrow (instead of 92-96, went for 90-95).

This is the “Ring of Fire” with these storm clusters on the periphery of the impressive heat wave.

1235


Heat Wave & MCS/Potential Low-End Derecho Nearby Wednesday

August 26th, 2013 at 1:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The heat wave began in our southern & southwestern counties yesterday, but not yet for everyone else with highs just shy of 90.

90+ is likely for everyone today.

90 or more will be with us the entire week, for daytime highs.

An MCS/perhaps low-end derecho’s (if strong cold pool can indeed organize & cause the storm to coalesce) outflow boundary will pass Wednesday morning with breezy conditions for a bit & wind shift to northeast briefly.  This boundary may pop a couple of storms.

If capping can weaken, after strengthening for a while Wednesday afternoon, then a couple storms may pop.

We will watch this to make sure the complex of storms does not do a shift to the west & get us Wednesday morning.  If that happens, then a severe weather threat with damaging-straight-line winds would develop here.  However, probability of that still remains low at the moment.

Hottest weather of the year with highs of 94-99 are likely at the end of Labor Day weekend to Labor Day itself with strong upper ridge centered nearly atop our area with surface high to our southeast.  That high, combined with low pressure in the Northern Plains will funnel in brisk southwest winds.  These winds will be downsloping from the Southern Plains, as well.

If full compressional heating can occur with the downsloping, then 94-99 may be conservative, but I definitely like those numbers & have a high degree of confidence in them.

ADI Map IIII12


Heat Wave with Record/Near Record Temperatures In the Forecast

August 25th, 2013 at 1:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a record hot, dry summer in Alaska, Deering, Alaska set a record low of 30 degrees today.  Tok, Alaska, near Fairbanks, dropped all the way down to 26!  Fairbanks dropped to 36 degrees this morning, while nearby Fort Wainwright reached 35.  The low temperature this morning at Duluth, Minnesota was an incredible 77 degrees!

Heat Advisories are now lining up from Illinois to Minnesota.  Excessive Heat Warnings are up in Minnesota.  Temperatures around 100 are likely there in the coming days.  The LOW temperature tonight & tomorrow night in Minneapolis will be 80 degrees!

Today is the start of a long-duration heat wave.  Yesterday was hot, too, but the humidity was very low with our dew point as low as 49 at WLFI yesterday afternoon with relative humidity levels dropping to 27%.  We also had a morning low of 56 yesterday morning & this morning, giving us nice starts with patchy fog.

It appears this will not be two heat waves, but one, prolonged stretch of near record/record heat.

The only chance of any t’storms through September 10 is August 28 & September 4.

.ADI Map I1

A long-lived MCS/derecho, with origins in Minnesota/Manitoba, will likely organize & rush through Wisconsin, Michigan, Ontario & into the mid-upper Ohio Valley Wednesday to Thursday.

On Wednesday, it looks as if this might clip our far northeast.  We will watch, as this is not a certainty, but the potential still exists.

The main threat with it is damaging straight-line winds.

With the arrival of new data in the coming day(s), we’ll have a better idea as to whether this will affect us & just how much it will affect us.  Thus, 20% POP looks good for Wednesday afternoon-evening.

Next potential of storms after this is a week later on Wednesday, September 4 as a surface cold front approaches.

This will change the hot pattern.  In fact, overnight low temperatures in the 40s are possible September 8-10.

34


Weekend Outlook

August 23rd, 2013 at 10:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After 84 today, that hotter air towards Springfield, Illinois & Kirksville, Missouri will arrive Saturday & Sunday with highs of 86 & 90, respectively.  Skies will be mostly sunny both days.  Humidity will not be too bad, though.  Pollen numbers will be high, so beware allergy & asthma sufferers.

However, lows tonight & Saturday night will still drop into the middle to upper 50s, followed by 60-65 Sunday night.

Some patchy fog is possible each night.

10


Heat Waves, “Ring of Fire” & Eventual Nice Cool-Down

August 23rd, 2013 at 2:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Heat wave will arrive Sunday & last through next week.

It looks largely dry, but we will watch the potential of an organized MCS (derecho?) race on the periphery on the heat wave from northern Minnesota, through Ontario, Michigan & into Ohio & the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast mid to late next week.

This may clip northeastern Indiana.

As for us, it doesn’t look to affect us, but given the behavoir of these in the past, you always have to watch it.  These storm clusters in the “Ring of Fire” can be a bit finicky at times.

After this, we will see a very slight shift of the really intense part of the heat wave to the west a hair, before it bulges back to the east.

Cold front on/near Labor Day will finally take the edge off of the heat wave, but there may be another one after Labor before it really cools down by September 10 with lows perhaps in the mid to upper 40s with highs in the 70s.

1234

 


Update

August 23rd, 2013 at 11:37 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is sunny & near 80 in Indianapolis as of 11 a.m., but overcast/foggy at West Lafayette with 67.  Rochester has 77 as of 11 a.m.

Fog bank became very thick & dense overnight over area.  The fog at the surface is dispersing, but the bank about 1000′ up has not, but will.

Skies are sunny in our far north & south & thinking the bank will erode from these areas & also begin to erode with a gaping hole in our western counties.

Skies will become mostly sunny by afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

1


Areas of Fog Tonight……Hot, Dry Pattern Developing with Two Heat Waves Through September 9

August 22nd, 2013 at 10:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Areas of fog will develop tonight as skies slowly clear & winds remain pretty light.

In the early stages of drought, most places are below to well-below normal for July 1-August 22 rainfall.  This is resulting in short-term impacts of  ”abnormal dryness” with a D0 rating.

1113

Two heat waves will evolve in our area August 25-September 9.  The potential exists for a day or two to have highs at 94-99 in the viewing area.

23