Some of the latest models have some isolated showers developing across the viewing area this morning and afternoon, but much like yesterday, I’m very hesitant to call for more than a miniscule chance for rain today. Our skies will remain mostly cloudy as late as the early afternoon; partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions will follow as high pressure moves in from the Great Plains. Afternoon highs will once again be slightly cooler as we are only expected to reach 77° here in Lafayette later today. Temperatures will remain steady at 77° for Saturday afternoon, though there will be one core difference from today; that passing area of high pressure will the skies over the viewing area clear of heavy cloud cover through Sunday morning. Sunday’s looking warmer, not because of the sunshine, but because of an inbound warm front. This warm front will arrive ahead of a low expected to track through the Great Lakes. With warm fronts, you normally see a cold front follow shortly after; that will be the case come Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front and while any severe weather will likely remain to our south, we could easily see some heavy downpours and small hail associated with this system.
Highs today were nice & warm generally 76-81. However, Newton & Jasper counties & Tipton County was 73-74. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy tonight with a few showers passing through our southwest counties after passing through our southeast counties this morning & northwest & northern counties this afternoon.
Few passing isolated showers/t’showers are possible tonight-tomorrow.
Saturday looks dry. Both days will have highs in the 70s.
Sunday will turn windy & warmer with some showers/storms possible, mainly in the late afternoon-evening & during the night. A shower or two may linger into Monday morning with skies turning partly cloudy. Highs Sunday will run near 81 with highs Monday in the 70s.
Dynamics & instability support some severe weather from this. Originally looked like wind, but hail & isolated tornado could be thrown into the mix. However, right now, it does not look like a widespread event, but it needs to be watched.
If it were more unstable (hotter & more humid) this would likely be a significant severe weather event.
SBCAPE & MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg will occur with nice bulk shear & helicity values.
A low pressure system will pass to our south and east by this evening all along producing isolated rain starting this morning. Some models have some isolated wrap-around rain lasting into tomorrow morning; however, the very dry conditions at the surface will prevent a more organized rainfall over the next 24 hours. We’ll begin our Friday under mostly cloudy skies, though as the day progresses, gradual peaks of sun will give way to partly cloudy skies. Another low will swing across the Great Lake this weekend bringing showers and thunderstorms to the viewing area as early as Sunday morning. Prior to our next round of rain, conditions are looking drier and slightly cooler; both Friday afternoon and Saturday look partly cloudy with high temperatures near 74°. Sunday’s warm front may bring afternoon highs back above 80° for some of us and keep temperatures near that average high through next midweek.
A few more showers & t’storms are possible this afternoon-evening as they bubble up in central Illinois today & move east & northeastward. Coverage will run 30-40%. Otherwise, it looks like we have some nice sun with clouds.
A few showers/t’showers are possible Friday, but coverage will run around 20%.
Saturday still looks dry & mostly sunny.
Unfortunately, it appears Monday system is indeed speeding up. Showers/storms are possible Sunday evening-night with a few severe storms possible.
It was another nice day with sun & clouds & highs of 77-81, which is a bit warmer than yesterday.
Some scattered showers & perhaps a couple of t’storms are possible very late tonight & tomorrow morning, followed by a break, then a few more tomorrow afternoon & evening. A few isolated to widely-scattered showers & t’showers are possible Friday. Coverage will run 30-40% overall Thursday & 20% Friday.
Right now, it appears the weekend will be dry, but stay tuned. We need to make sure the Monday morning rainfall potential does not speed & up & arrive earlier. Some models do indeed indicate that (bringing t’storms in late Sunday, rather than Sunday night-Monday or just Monday morning [as originally thought]). If they come in Sunday afternoon-evening, severe threat will GO UP with more juice & heat to work with.
I like “round of showers & t’storms possible Sunday night-Monday morning” for now with continued monitoringt & potential of tweaking. I cannot rule out a few strong to severe gusts with it passing even during this time.
A massive heat wave will engulf the western U.S. now-June 17. With time it will move eastward. It appears we will warm up to the mid 80s area-wide next week with a cluster of storms possible Friday &/or Saturday. Dynamics & projected instability support at least isolated severe threat. June 18 & onward there are signs of the hottest weather of the season so far with 90s area-wide. Highs of 91-95 look good with heat indices of 97-101. So far at WLFI, our warmest temperature this year has been 87 on 3 occasions, but I truly think that will definitely be eclipsed at that point.
Hot pattern will stick with us at least up to June 22 with storms around that point, too.
January 29-30 Night-Time-Early Morning QLCS Squall Line
QLCS squall line raced through in the form of one short segment in our northwestern areas & then the main squall line over most of the viewing area January 29-30. Timing of the lines occurred generally between 9 p.m. & 1:30 a.m.
Sporadic severe wind gusts accompanied the line as high as 65 mph. One tornado velocity signature was seen in Carroll County, but rotation signature was largely mid-level & did not drop enough to low-level to warrant tornado warning per NWS.
Trees were reportedly felled in Montgomery County & Tipton counties with an aluminum shed in Carroll County damaged. A trampoline was blown a considerable distance at this site, with limbs & small trees downed northeast of Flora.
Damaging gusts tended to occur where dew points reached 60-61, while much of the intense wind remained a few thousand feet off the ground in areas with dew points below 60 as buoyancy prevented enough updrafts to tap into strong winds close to the ground & bring them to the surface.
Think of an improperly inflated balloon. No matter how much you try to force it upward, it never tends to rise high on its own (lower dew points, bit cooler air). A properly inflated balloon will rise & tap into air currently well above it & float (dew point 60 or 61 & bit warmer air). Same applies to dew points & their associated surface instability.
+80 mph low-level jet & influx of warmth & higher dew points caused the squall line to organize quickly with +115 mph winds at upper levels aiding in lift. Additionally, record warmth preceded the QLCS squall line in the 60s & heavy rainfall accompanied the line & lasted for several hours behind it. This resulted in 1-3″ of rainfall over the 2-day period with areas of minor flooding.
High-resolution model wind projections several hours prior to event:
Precision 18 Doppler radar wind data during event:
Below shows actual measured wind gusts & a few estimated gusts from spotters:
April 10-11, 2013: Day-time Multi-Cellular Hailers & Night-time QLCS Squall Line
Severe weather event unfolded April 10-11 in two parts. 1-3.5″ of total rainfall fell during the two rounds, resulting in areas of flash flooding. River flooding event occurred several days afterward with Wabash cresting 6-8′ above flood stage Lafayette to Covington. Many other rivers & streams reaching either bankfull or over flood stage during & after event.
24-hour rainfall totals for these days are 7 a.m. to 7 a.m.
3 cluster of largely elevated multi-cellular storms passed through north of a surface warm front in the afternoon-evening of April 10. A few were surface-based south of the warm front, where some gusty winds were able to make it to the surface & accompany the large hail. The multiple rounds also trained over the same areas, leading to some locations receiving over 2″ of rainfall. This led to areas of flash flooding particularly in northern Warren, northwest Clinton, southeastern Carroll.
Trees Down – 1.5 Miles Northeast Kirklin
0.25″ Hail – South Lafayette
0.25″ Hail – Klondike
0.25″ Hail – Battle Ground
1.00″ Hail – Kokomo
1.00″ Hail – Converse
0.25″ – Greentown
0.50″ – East of Greentown
1.00″ Hail – 2 Miles Northeast of Dayton
1.00″ Hail – 2 Miles West of Darlington
0.88″ – Darlington
0.88″ Hail – South of Dayton
1.00″ Hail - East of Dayton
0.25″ Hail – Windfall
1.00″ Hail – New Ross
M51 mph Gust – Crawfordsville
E45 mph – Ladoga
0.50″ Hail – WLFI-TV
A QLCS squall line of t’storms raced through the area Wednesday night-early Thursday morning 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. Several small bow & LEWPs formed in the line, mainly in the southeastern half of the viewing area. There, it warmed up to near 61 ahead of the line.
One particular bow produced sporadic wind damage from south of Covington to Hillsboro to near Crawfordsville to near Rossville. This bow developed an LEWP in the line that produced a low-level rotation signature, prompting a tornado warning for northeastern Montgomery, southeastern Tippecanoe, Clinton, southeastern Carroll & Howard counties.
This line dumped additional rainfall that resulted in a total of 1 to 3.5″ of rainfall across the viewing area. Some roads were flooded by the rainfall in Carroll & Clinton counties.
Trees, limbs down near Hillsboro & farm shed damaged with 3 power poles leading
Many trees & some powerlines down near Mulberry
M64 mph: Rossville WLFI Tower Site Weather Station
Several large limbs down south of tower site weather station
E58 mph: 6 ESE Covington
M52 mph: Crawfordsville
M60 mph: Frankfort
M45 mph: Kokomo
M43 mph: Kokomo Municipal Airport
M38 mph: Burlington
M37 mph: Grissom Air Reserve Base
M34 mph: Pine Village
M33 mph: Michigantown
Damage pics from near Hillsboro in Fountain County (courtesy of Tyler Snider & Sam Harding):
APRIL 17, 2013 SOUTHERN SUPERCELL LARGE HAILERS
Several supercell t’storms formed near/on warm front during the evening of April 17. Producing hail as large as golfballs, gusts of 50 mph also occurred with the storms. One particular storm showed a very pronounced, strong low-level rotation signature. Spotters did reports a rotating wall cloud with this feature, but no funnel developed.
Storms brought torrential rainfall of up to 1″ in a short period of time.
1.75″ Hail 1 Mile South of Ladoga
1.50″ Hail Ladoga
E40 mph Gust Ladoga
1.50″ Hail 3 Miles North of New Ross
1.50″ Hail 2 Miles North of New Ross
1.00″ Hail New Ross
E50 mph Gust Ladoga
Rotating Wall Cloud New Ross
1.50″ Hail Mackie
1.25″ Hail Northeast Mackie
1.00″ Hail 3 Miles Northeast of Ladoga
1.00″ Hail Thorntown
0.25″ Hail Advance
Rotating Wall Cloud 3 Miles Northeast New Ross
Rotating Wall Cloudy 3 Miles Northwest of Advance
0.25″ Hail Antioch
0.25″ Hail Rensselaer
0.25″ Hail Kentland
0.25″ Hail WLFI
APRIL 18, 2013 TWO SQUALL LINES
Squall line on the morning of April 18 produced severe gusts & wind damage in Newton, Jasper, Benton, Warren & Fountain counties. The heaviest damage was in Earl Park where several buildings, including a retirement home, were damaged (along with trees & powerlines).
Weak low-level rotation signature was evident on radar with LEWP in the squall line around Earl Park. However, damage all points towards straight-line wind damage of 80 mph in a narrow corridor embedded in a broader swath of 55-65 mph wind gusts.
This particular LEWP’s bow (tornado signature was embedded in the middle of the “S”-shape of LEWP) did produce a gust to 61 mph at Kentland with trees & limbs downed.
After this, waves of showers & t’storms continue all day, but were not severe.
Second squall line in the evening produced wind gusts of up to 50 mph & torrential rainfall.
The training of this line & heavy bouts of rainfall since the evening before, produced the widespread, significant flooding in the area by the morning of April 19 with the Wabash at Lafayette reaching its highest level since June 14, 1950 & at Covington since January 7, 1950. The Wildcat at Lafayette reached its highest level since July 7, 2003. Record flooding occurred on creeks in Howard, Tipton & Boone counties, while Oakdale Dam discharge caused minor flooding downstream. Widespread field & road flooding also occurred area-wide, specifically in our southeastern counties where rainfall totals ended up being the highest.
A wet winter, snowy March & wet mid-April caused this flood to be significant.
Earl Park Trees & limbs down, powerlines down & building damage……….grain bin downed
Earl Park Part of roof of retirement home collapsed
Earl Park Shed blown onto U.S. 41
Mt Ayr Several power poles blown down onto County Road 200 south between Meridian Road & County Road 100 West.
E60 mph Mt. Ayr
M65 mph Morocco
M64 mph Near Dunn’s Bridge
M61 mph Kentland
M60 mph 4 Miles Southeast of Fowler
M53 mph Pine Village
M52 mph Rensselaer
M49 mph Rensselaer High School
M49 mph Winamac
M44 mph Jasper County Airport
M41 mph Frankfort
M40 mph Attica
M37 mph Covington
M37 mph Purdue University Airport
M37 mph 5 Miles Northwest Rochester
M37 mph WLFI-TV
SQUALL LINE GUSTS:
M50 mph Covington
M50 mph Crawfordsville
M48 mph Atlanta
M45 mph Frankfort
M44 mph Michigantown
M44 mph Kokomo Municipal Airport
M41 mph Kokomo
MAY 21, 2013 SQUALL LINE
Supercells from major tornado & severe weather outbreak gelled into a squall line that raced eastward with a couple of bows in the early, early morning hours of May 21.
Sporadic straight-line wind damage occurred with highest wind seemingly about 3 miles south of Burlington, where 2 chicken houses were reportedly destroyed. There, it appears microburst with winds of 85 mph occurred.
An EF0 tornado was confirmed just south of the Montgomery/Putnam County line near Roachdale. Trees were knocked down, a barn & shed was damaged & irrigation rigs were overturned.
There were 3 reports of hail in Benton & Newton County from penny-size at Kentland, dime size north of Earl Park & pea-sized south of Morocco.
1 Mile Southwest of Hillsboro Barn Destroyed & Trees Down
New Richmond Trees Down
Northwest Boone County Trees Down
Flora Trees & Powerlines Down
Tipton Trees Down
3 miles south of Burlington 2 chicken houses destroyed.
Bringhurst Trampoline in the field. It had been picked up, taken over livestock fence and dropped in the field about 1/4 mile.
Middlefork Trees & Limbs down
MAY 31, 2013 LEWP & BOW WITH BOOKEND VORTEX
An LEWP in the evening, followed by a large bow with a Bookend Vortex at the top of the bow overnight. Both produced damaging straight-line winds & tornadoes in our viewing area & eastern Illinois. Heavy rainfall was also produced.
An EF0 tornado with winds to 85 mph & a 0.5-mile path occurred in Benton County 1 mile north of Templeton.
An EF1 (winds up to 95 mph) occurred 13 miles southwest of Covington near Westville, Illinois.
Otherwise, damaging straight-line winds of up to 72 mph were reported with some isolated small hail.
While high pressure over the eastern seaboard will keep conditions dry across Indiana, we’ll still catch some upper level moisture throughout much of the day. The intermittent cloud cover will still allow for a nice amount of sunshine this afternoon, boosting temperatures above the average high for the first time in six days. Expect a high temperature of 81° in Lafayette this afternoon. As we shift our focus to a low pressure system currently centralized over southeastern North Dakota, we can start talking about rain chances in the near future. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive ahead of the low as early as your lunch hour tomorrow. Our rain chances from this slow moving system may continue into Friday Morning. Temperatures for both Thursday and Friday will be cooler as a result of the passing cold front (79° & 75°). High pressure will supply the region with another brief period of dryness beginning Friday afternoon and lasting into Sunday. We’ll drop to 74° on Saturday prior to the arrival of a warm front on Sunday; afternoon temperatures that day should climb back to 80°. The following three days will be plagued a pair of inbound lows that will bring a sustained chance of rainfall to the viewing area.
Today was a nice day with 70s. Even tonight, we are still in the 60s for most of the area & won’t fall a lot more (55-59) with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow looks partly cloudy & a bit breezy with 77-81 degrees.
Thursday will have highs of 76-79.
Few showers/storms are possible very late Wednesday night-Thursday morning with few more Thursday afternoon-evening after a break. A few are possible in Friday, as well. Coverage will peak at 40% Thursday afternoon-evening.
NEW & OFFICIAL FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA:
The tornado on Friday that hit El Reno, Oklahoma has been upgraded to an EF-5.
It now appears not only was it the widest on record (2.6 miles), but also the second strongest with winds of 295 mph. This is second behind the May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado (318 mph wind) in terms of strength. However, this one is larger than the great Hallam, Nebraska tornado (2.5 miles wide) back on May 22, 2004.
This maximum width & strength was seen in catastrophic damage just east of U.S. 81 & south of I-40 near El Reno. Pavement from roads was pulled up by the wind, only leaving soil & that area is completely void of grass, brush or tree vegetation. Any structure there disappeared & was totally obliterated.
This certainly has the meteorological & climatological world talking.
More information: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130531