THE QLCS SQUALL LINE…………
Narrow, rope-like squall line was still producing wind damage even this morning across Pennsylvania to New York & New Jersey & even Massachusetts. The line lasted long enough today to bring damaging winds to New York City, western Connecticut & western Massachusetts.
EF1 tornado has been confirmed in Vandalia, Ohio, near Dayton. A second EF0 tornado was confirmed near Dayton. High-end EF0 tornado also confirmed in western Kentucky, about 60 miles southwest of Evansville.
NWS storm surveys are on-going across southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southern Indiana & Kentucky. 3 tornadoes have been confirmed in Louisiana & southeastern Texas.
1.31-2.65″ of rainfall was measured from automatic WLFI to personal & NWS AWOS/ASOS stations across the viewing area from this storm system.
I plotted peak measured gusts via anemometers & estimated gusts from spotters (from the line to gusts overnight) on map below:
With partly to mostly cloudy skies & windy conditions, highs will run 55-60 today & 47-54 tomorrow. A few showers are possible tonight-early Saturday.
Some of the showers will get in by late this evening, mainly Lafayette north & westward.
Sunday looks mostly sunny & 50-55 with breezy conditions.
EARLY NEXT WEEK…………
Windy conditions & 60s will return early next week with gusts of up to 35 mph from the south.
Another significant storm system with rapidly-deepening surface low will pivot from Missouri to Iowa to Wisconsin with lots of wind here (gusts to 40 mph) Wednesday.
It does appear that some severe weather will develop from either here or just south of our area to Mississippi on Wednesday. Shear parameters favor a QLCS squall line with wind/tornado threat (especially Mississippi to Kentucky), despite meager surface instability of up to 500 J/kg. 120 mph upper jet, 60 mph low-level jet may compensate for the lack of surface CAPE.
We need to watch this as severe threat may be expanded northward as showers/storms pass Wednesday with highs of 65-70.
Behind the front, winds may gust to 42 mph Wednesday night (from the northwest).
2-4″ of rainfall may fall from Texas to southern Missouri from this system with the potential of another solid 1″ of rainfall across our area.
LATE NEXT WEEK…………
Next Thursday looks partly to mostly cloudy, windy (northwest winds to 32 mph) & colder with perhaps a few flurries & temperatures falling to around 38 by late afternoon.
Friday looks sunny, calm & cool with cold, frosty night after highs around 42. Overnight lows still look like they may be the coldest of the season at 20-25.
Right now, next weekend looks good with sunny to mostly sunny skies & highs of 45-52.
It does appear November 11-13 that another strong storm system with wind, rain & storms will pass through. Highs of 60-65 are possible.
After highs in the 40s November 14-15 with strong northwest winds 25-35 mph, it appears a cold front will bring some showers around the 16th with highs of 48-54.
Highs by November 17-18 will only run in the 30s with a few snow flurries.
The first widespread teens for overnight lows are possible by around the morning of November 19.