Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog
NOW (FEBRUARY 4) TO TUESDAY (FEBRUARY 12)………..
Clipper will pass Tuesday with some snow showers, mainly in our northeastern areas. There 1″ or less may accumulate in places, while the rest of the area see little to nothing. Winds will be gusty from the southwest & west up to 30 mph with highs largely in the 30s. Wednesday looks partly cloudy with highs largely in the 30s.
Cold front will pass Thursday with a wave of some showers with temperatures climbing to near 43, then falling later in the day.
Storm system with lots of wind & widespread rainfall (right now 0.50-1″ of rainfall) & some thunder will arrive Sunday & exit by Monday morning. After highs in the 50s Sunday & lows in the middle 40s Sunday night, we will fall Monday after a morning high in the middle 40s. Monday night lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s.
Highs Tuesday looks to be in the middle 30s with lows in the middle to upper teens.
WEDNESDAY (FEBRUARY 13) TO TUESDAY (FEBRUARY 26)………….
Need to watch next Wednesday-Thursday for snow. Looks like it may begin as rain/snow mix & transition to snow with accumulation possible. Behind it, ARCTIC AIR will roar in with highs only in the teens to around 20 & lows near 0.
This storm is the best potential of significant accumulating snowfall (at least the way it looks right now) to February 26 & perhaps the month of February.
A clipper around February 16-17 & another around February 19 may bring some minor-accumulating snowfall to the area on the order of 0.5-2″ (at least the way it looks right now). It will stay quite cold up to February 22 with highs in the teens & 20s, though there are signs of a big spring-like warm-up to end February.
COMING UP THIS EVENING: OUTLOOK NOW-FEBRUARY 20………….I am working on this & will have it later this evening.
This is why I forecast so much against models. I went with 39 today, despite models showing it so cold & notice the NAM model for today. It paints up to 6″ of snowfall in our northwestern counties. The highest total from the snow was 1.5″.
Models require incredibly careful gleaning & tedious analog analysis is required for forecasts.
There are some low clouds upstream making their way in, but it is unclear how much of the low cloudiness will hang on tonight. So, I like a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy wording for the night with lows of 15-20. With calming winds late, late tonight, if we would happen to go totally clear in places, those areas may see some light freezing fog & temperatures colder at near 10 to 15. With a clear sky, I would go colder than that if the snow wasn’t melting so fast today over most of the area (except far northeast [Rochester, Denver] where there is less melting going on).
Another Alberta will track just north of us tomorrow. Some snow showers are possible, mainly in our northeastern areas where 1″ or less may accumulate in places. Areas south of there will have little to nothing. It will be a windy day with southwest to west gusts as high as 31 mph.
Highs look to run 29 to 37 degrees from northeast to southwest.
Band of snow showers is running from Marion to Kokomo & from Danville, Illinoit near Attica. Band of heavy snow showers (& some sleet perhaps, as evidenced in some “bright banding” of echoes on radar & slight warm layer in KIND sounding) is running along I-70 from Terre Haute to Indianapolis to Richmond. This is all pretty quickly moving southeastward as clipper races through.
Expect slowly clearing skies from northwest to southeast across the viewing area this afternoon with highs in the 30s to near 40.
Up to 1.5″ of snowfall has been reported from our northeastern counties today, after 1-2″ of fluffy snowfall in places yesterday. Areas in our southwestern half saw very little, if any snowfall today, however & most areas in our southwestern counties had only a thin coating yesterday.
SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY FROM SPOTTERS VIA WLFI & COCORAHS:
Looks like snowfall is accelerating & shifting a bit more southwest. That said, will bring snow showers in for Monday, end them Monday evening & expand the 1″ to as much as 2″ snowfall zone. Some snow may arrive in northwest counties by early Monday morning.
Like 1″ to up to 2″ Morocco to Monticello to Burlington to Kokomo & northward with less than 1″ southwest of that area. In that “less than 1″ area, I think there will be a few locations that see either hardly anything or nothing at all, though.
In a band northwest of Fort Wayne to South Bend to Chicago to Madison looks to get a 4-6″ snow with isolated +6″ amounts.
Intense Frontagenic Banding with Up to 6″ (Isolated +6″) of Snow Just North of Here Monday-Tuesday A.M.February 3rd, 2013 at 7:35 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Clipper is headed southeast, which will bring some snow showers to our viewing area Monday-Monday night-Tuesday morning. A nice 3-6″ band will set up from Madison, Wisconsin, through Chicago to just north of Fort Wayne. Impressive frontagenic banding may even bring isolated +6″ amounts there.
As for our viewing area, a coating is possible in places with perhaps 1-2″ Demotte to Wheatfield to Winamac to Royal Center & areas north of Peru.
Skies are clearing & snow showers/flurries are pulling away.
I am NOT convinced that we are all getting around 2″ of snowfall Monday. I saw some forecasts of 2″.
I like “a coating in places” Monday-Monday night-Tuesday a.m. I may need to up “coating” to 1-2″ in our northeastern counties though. Thinking IF I do need to do this, it would be along & north of a Demotte to Royal Center to Peru line.
Given the trend, will keep some snow showers going into the afternoon. Watch for slick spots, as another coating has occurred over most of the area with some places reported another fluffy 1-1.5″.
Snow showers & flurries will continue to pass through tonight-early Sunday with another coating possible. A few locations may get up to a fluffy 1″.
I am still NOT ready to warm up to 1-2″ Monday night-Tuesday morning. I prefer a “some snow showers & flurries” possible wording with a coating in places. I do not see how 1-2″ will happen, but it is seen by some model solutions. It is a northern Alberta Clipper & some southern moisture that would tend to merge in the Ohio Valley. I think ANY 1-2″ snowfall would tend to be well east & southeast of here with recent analysis.
Shortwave will bring snow showers & flurries to the viewing area this evening, tonight to Sunday morning with a coating of snow in places.
Another Alberta Clipper will bring snow showers to the viewing area Monday night-Tuesday morning. A good coating is possible. Some new data is indicative of an 1″ to as much as 2″, but I need more evidence before I make that a forecast. Highs will be the 20s & 30s Monday-Thursday.
Some scattered chilly rain showers are possible late Thursday-Friday morning with high near 44 before slowly falling all day Friday (after rising temperatures from 30s to around 40 Thursdsy night).
More widespread rainfall is possible next Saturday evening through Saturday night & into Sunday with warmer highs in the 50s.