Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Rather Dry Regime Continues

September 3rd, 2013 at 10:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Recent rainfall was scattered.  Some of you received a good 1″, some of you received very little, if anything.  We picked up a total of 0.32″ here at WLFI, total, from Friday-Saturday night.

It continues to be quite dry & an upgrade to Moderate Drought (D1) to parts of the area is likely Thursday with the rest of the area in Abnormally Dry conditions or D0.

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Work Continues On Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer 2013-14 Forecast

September 3rd, 2013 at 9:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I am working on the fall-winter-spring-summer 2013-14 forecast.

There are anomalies that can already be easily seen in the Pacific & Atlantic Oceans.  A good chunk of the Pacific is in a cool phase, but there are some very unusually warm anomalies seen in the northern part of the Pacific.  There is a large area of Pacific Ocean temperatures running running +3 degrees above normal off the West Coast of the U.S. & incredible anomalies between Alaska & Japan by +5 degrees above normal.

Much of the Atlantic is in a warm phase with the warmest water temperatures in the central & northern parts of the Atlantic.

All this said, the question is 1) how long do these anomalies continue & 2) what happens to these ocean temp anomalies in the fall-winter-spring.

I am gradually getting a list of years that matches this year globally to locally.  All other aspects of the forecast from current & projected Arctic ice pack to stratospheric ozone to current soil moisture anomalies, etc. will fit into the mix with the final draft.

I still hope to have this done September 20, but there is a lot to do.

Today was a nice day with sunshine & clouds with highs at 74-78.

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Nice Day Ahead After Cool Morning

September 3rd, 2013 at 11:07 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Lake effect cloudiness in our north & east will give way to partly cloudy skies of cumulus today.

After a chilly start tomorrow, highs will rise to 82-86 tomorrow afternoon ahead of a weak, dry surface cold front.

This front will drop highs back slightly to 78-83 Thursday & 48-53 Thursday night.

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Beautiful, Starry Night!

September 2nd, 2013 at 10:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Tonight’s sky is about as clear & starry as I have seen in weeks!  The air is crisp, cooler & cleaner!

Highs today ran 80-85 with dew points falling into the 50s.  Tonight, we will fall quickly into the 50-55 range.  Some patchy fog is possible, if the winds can indeed go calm.  Tomorrow still looks nice with 70s & sunshine & some fair weather cumulus.  Tomorrow night will feature clear, calm, cool conditions wit some patchy fog & lows of 47-52.

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There are still signs of a return of rather hot conditions with upper 80s by Saturday & 90 by Sunday & Monday.  New data still suggests a few scattered storms Monday, but nothing before then.


August 2013

September 2nd, 2013 at 3:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I hope everyone is having a great Labor Day!  The weather is perfect with 80s, lowering humidity, a north breeze & a deep blue sky of scattered puffy cumulus humilis & mediocris.

Areas of fog will develop tonight as temperatures plummet to 50-55, followed by mostly sunny skies & 75-78 tomorrow & areas of fog & 47-52 tomorrow night.

August ended up with temperatures near-normal overall at WLFI, with the cooler first half & hotter latter half equaling out to normal.  Rainfall was below-normal for the second consecutive month.

Below is August & July 2013, as well as August & July 2012 & 2011 for comparison.

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July & August 2012:

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July & August 2011:

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Update

September 1st, 2013 at 11:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some storms are entering our northwestern counties with approach of the cold front.  Isolated severe threat remains for a bit.

Despite temperatures falling into the upper 60s with calm winds & some fog, they are rising to about 72 just ahead of the cold front with the thickening clouds of the t’storm tops overspreading area.  Also, the storms are being fed by 1) still rising air from marginally juicy air & 2) the southern end of stronger mid- & upper-winds that are ventilating their tops, continuing to suck air upward & keeping them sustained.

However, thinking that even modest mid & upper winds will begin to exit after 12:30 a.m. & shift more towards Michigan into Ontario & New York.  Thus, weakening trend of the storms will ensue after that point.  Will still keep 20% POP for the overnight & take away any isolated severe threat after that, though.

There are signs after a cool-down behind this cold front that another round of pretty hot weather may be on the horizon with highs around 90 degrees.

This week is fine, but things could change as we get further into September with a round of hotter weather.

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Update

September 1st, 2013 at 9:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Surface cold front is now running across northern & north-central Illinois & moving southeastward.

Storms are firing along it where good heating occurred today with sunshine.

Here, with so much low stratus for part of the day, we didn’t heat up as much.

Nonetheless, there will be about 1000 J/kg surface CAPE as the front passes tonight amidst about some marginal shear.

So, some scattered storms for the overnight forecast (25-30%) will do with an isolated severe storm possible.

Patchy fog is possible late with lows near 65.

Tomorrow looks mostly sunny & 80-85 with north winds at 5-15 mph.

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Update

September 1st, 2013 at 1:47 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

STORM REPORTS FROM SATURDAY:

0.25″  Hail Logansport

E50 mph  Ladoga

0.25″  Hail Covington

ADI Map IIII

Second surface cold is along Mississippi River as of 1:44 p.m.

Front will swing through this evening-tonight.

Low stratus/fog/haze will likely disperse over the next 1-3 hours to allow for partly cloudy skies.  Heating will occur, which will likely support a few showers & storms with the front.

30% coverage of showers/t’storms looks good for evening-tonight.

Any severe potential will be isolated, but not non-existent for hail/wind.

Labor Day still looks good after some patchy fog & 65 in the morning, 81-85 with mostly sunny skies & lowering humidity in the afternoon.  Winds will be north at 5-15 mph.


Labor Day Weekend Outlook

August 31st, 2013 at 10:13 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered storms will occur today & tomorrow with hot, humid conditions.  Highs near/above 90 for area to as high as 96 far southwest with lows in the 70s.

Patchy fog/low stratus is possible Sunday morning before burning off.

No substantial severe threat is in place, though I cannot rule out an isolated severe t’storm or two.

Patchy fog Monday morning with lows near 65 will give way to mostly sunny skies & highs of 80-85.  It will be much less humid Monday, as well, followed by lows Monday night-Tuesday morning of 50-55.

Back to the workweek, Tuesday looks great with mostly sunny skies & highs only near 76 with lows near 48 Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.


Update

August 30th, 2013 at 6:06 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

9:40 P.M.

It was the hottest day of the year so far with 95 at WLFI.

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Showers & t’storms are coming in from the northwest right into the heart of the viewing area now, but they are not severe.  We should be free of severe weather for the rest of the night.

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9:17 P.M.

Severe T’Storm Warning for Jasper County has expired.

Bowing segment is in weakening mode, but is still producing strong gusts of 27-45 mph.

Farther south, wind shift to northwest & some gusts of 20-30 mph are still possible as the gust front surges out well ahead of the showers & storms.

Line held on long enough for some gusts of 50-60 mph & nickel hail, now it is in overall weakening mode, but there will still be some scattered showers & t’storms tonight.  Line is moving outside of the belt of mid & upper flow for storm organization.

STORM REPORTS:

M59 mph  4 Miles North of Wheatfield on Route 49

0.75″  Hail 4 Miles North of Wheatfield on Route 49

M52 mph  Wheatfield

0.25″ Hail Wheatfield

M40 mph  Morocco

M35 mph  Rensselaer

M33 mph  Jasper County Airport

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9:02 P.M.

Storms with gusts of 40-52 mph are moving through eastern Jasper, western Pulaski, northern White with bowing line segment.

Storms are tending to weaken, overall, with line as they advance south.

GUSTS:

M40 mph Morocco

M35 mph  Rensselaer

M33 mph  Jasper County Airport 

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8:41 P.M.

Storm north of Wheatfield may now be producing hail, in addition to wind 45-60 mph.  Band of gusts of 45-60 mph are possible from Wheatfield to Fair Oaks are possible.

Be ready Wheatfield for hail & severe gusts!  More likely the hail will be 0.88″ to 1″ diameter with maximum possible of 1.25″.

GUSTS:

M40 mph  Morocco

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8:27 P.M.

Severe T’Storm Warning is in effect for Jasper County until 9:15 p.m.

Gusts of 45-60 mph are possible with the gust front rushing out ahead of the storms & with the actual storms themselves.

However, even in Newton County, there are localized gusts with the gust front of 50-60 mph, as indicated south of Roselawn.

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8:03 P.M.

Warning due out any time for Jasper/Newton for gusts 45-60 mph with 1) gust front & 2) with actual storm.

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Conditions downstream as of 6:10 p.m. are slightly better for storms near Chicago to remain organized longer, per wind profiler data & soundings.  That said, some scattered/pockets of strong-severe gusts may hold on long enough to get into our viewing area.  There is a slight southward shift of the stronger mid & upper wind fields & some dry air entrenchment in mid levels may enhance some gusts.

Will upgrade “isolated briefly severe” severe wording to “few scattered pockets of severe wind” northwest of Lafayette for the evening after 7:30 p.m.  This will be followed by weakening of the t’storms.  Will continue to monitor this.

Otherwise, a few isolated showers/storms will be with us.

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