Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Damaging Winds Newton/Jasper………..Brief, Isolated Tornado Possible Mt. Ayr to North Marion & Rensselaer

May 31st, 2013 at 7:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Jim measured gust to 51 mph at Kentland.  Morocco station still not registering. 

Damaging winds to 70 mph headed for Rensselaer & Egypt to Surrey & Ashphaltum.  Isolated tornado possible from Mount Ayr to near North Marion & Rensselaer.

Hail to 0.75″ diameter also possible. 

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Damaging Winds In Newton County…………….Weather Station Went Down (Not Transmitting) at Morocco, So Have No Measured Gust Available

May 31st, 2013 at 7:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

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Damaging Winds & Some Hail Moving Into Newton County (Cannot Rule Out Very Brief, Isolated EF0 Tornado)

May 31st, 2013 at 7:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Damaging straight-line winds up to 70 mph are possible from Conrad to Morocco to Kentland & Earl Park. 

Hail core with pea to penny stones possible around Morocco.

Occasionally, meso-vortices are seen in the storm, so a brief, isolated EF0 tornado cannot be ruled out at any point along the storms’ path.


Severe T’Storm Warning Newton, Jasper, Northern Benton Until 8 p.m.

May 31st, 2013 at 7:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm with history of damaging straight-line wind damage is 9 miles from the Newton County line with Illinois & 13 miles from the northwest Benton line with Illinois.

Some pea to penny hailstones may pop out of this storm, along with gust up to 70 mph.  Several mesovortices are noted within it, so the potential is there for a couple brief rain-wrapped EF0 tornadoes. 

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Damaging Winds & Isolated, Brief Tornado Possible Approaching Newton County

May 31st, 2013 at 6:44 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm is about 31 miles west of Kentland & Morocco, moving east-northeast at 50 mph.  A semi was overturned & tree damage was reported in Livingston County, Illinois.

Warning needed soon.

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Update

May 31st, 2013 at 6:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm approaching I-57 in Illinois has 2 rotation signatures & wind damage sited in it.  This storm is moving toward Newton County.  Sustained by dynamics & more sun (& gradually-strengthening low-level jet this evening), we need to watch this storm as other storms ”zipper” along outflow boundary in Illinois (storms blowing up down outflow boundary like unzippering a jacket).

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Significant Tornado Parameter Index (STP) Impressive to the West

May 31st, 2013 at 5:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Violent tornado event will likely unfold this evening southwest Missouri into Oklahoma.  However, even in south-central Missouri to Illinois, tornado parameters are pretty impressive.

The 2-5 in the image shows higher tornado potential with the Significant Tornado Parameter index.

Those soundings still to look like a loaded gun sounding with similar parameters around that EF5 tornado several weeks back.

TORNADO

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Update

May 31st, 2013 at 3:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

SEVERE THREATS EAST & WEST OF US, BUT WE ARE IN DOING WELL FOR NOW (IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT FOR TIME BEING)……………….

At the moment, it appears the main severe threat zones over the next 1-4 hours will be Ohio & parts of Illinois & Missouri & yet another area in southwest Missouri to Oklahoma & Kansas.  Now cap may hold there a bit, delaying storm explosion for just a little while.  So called “loaded gun soundings” out there support near High Risk upgrade. 

We are doing well because it is cloudy & only 76 degrees & we continue to have low stratus & a lot of old convective cloud debri either from lastnight’s storms or from the storms that have been in Illinois & Missouri today.  There are some scattered showers & a few t’storms movin gin from the west, but they are not strong to severe. 

Where it is partly cloudy to mostly sunny & 85-90, like in Ohio, severe storm clusters & line segments are rapidly evolving & there is less dynamic support there than here (still enough for storm organization, however).

HOWEVER, the sun is out in western Illinois through St. Louis where storms have rapidly intensified near Quincy, Illinois over the past hour.  I do expect severe storms to develop in Illinois & into Missouri.  These may affect us with time this evening-tonight.

Violent storms in southwest Missouri-Oklahoma-Kansas will evolve from tornadic supercells with some producing hail of softball size to a squall line that would tend affect all/part of the viewing area late tonight-early tomorrow morning.

1-3″ of rainfall is likely area-wide now-early Sunday morning.  Given wet soils in many areas, this may lead to some flash flooding in places.

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Update

May 31st, 2013 at 12:57 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY………….

As long as clouds continue to fill in across our area, moving northward from Kentucky, scattered severe threat will remain lower, despite nice shear/wind fields in lower atmosphere overspreading area.

Also, some showers have developed & continue to move northward across area.  This has kept temperatures in the 60s & 70s so far.  As of 1 p.m., I have 70.8 degrees at WLFI with a dew point of 66.

There is sunshine in southeastern & eastern Illinois, yielding surface CAPE (instability) of 1500 J/kg.  While Oklahoma surface CAPE is EXPLOSIVE at over 4500 J/kg.  There, conditions sure support a few strong/violent tornadoes today.

So, we will watch that mass of rain & line of t’storms in Illinois this afternoon.  If we can get the sun out, environment will be much more conducive to at least scattered severe weather, given forcing/dynamics/shear in place.

I still like “scattered severe” in the forecast this afternoon-evening given potential of some sun & warming temperatures today & storms in Illinois strengthening.  Potential of new storms forming on outflow boundary into eastern Missouri (where some sun is appearing) seems reasonable.

TONIGHT……….

It still appears as if violent severe outbreak in Oklahoma, Missouri & Kansas with gell into a squall line & likely affect us overnight-early Saturday morning.  Although it does not look violent here, severe weather threat will likely exist as it passes with wind & isolated tornado threat.

SATURDAY…………

As for Saturday, questions remain, but still thinking best severe potential may occur just east & southeast of the viewing area.  However, showers & t’storms are likely.

Stay tuned for updates.

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Morning-Afternoon & Evening Outlook

May 31st, 2013 at 10:15 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Dim sun is starting to appear in parts of the viewing area, mainly in the western half & there is a lot of sun appearing in Illinois.  Temperatures there are rapidly warming.

This is occurring downstream of a line of storms developing in Missouri.

Thinking that current Missouri MCS’ outflow boundary will act as trigger for additional storms today, along with just random pops in the increasingly warm, humid & unstable airmass with decent wind fields & shear overspreading entire area.

The storms on the outflow boundary & then any random storms will tend to merge into mainly lines, but also small multi-cell clusters.

Main threat would be scattered severe gusts, but some hail &/or an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon-evening.  Heavy rainfall is also possible.

The warmer it gets today here, the better the potential of severe weather, but I like an overall “scattered severe” threat for afternoon-evening.

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