Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Outlook to November 19

November 1st, 2013 at 12:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

THE QLCS SQUALL LINE…………

Narrow, rope-like squall line was still producing wind damage even this morning across Pennsylvania to New York & New Jersey & even Massachusetts.  The line lasted long enough today to bring damaging winds to New York City, western Connecticut & western Massachusetts.

EF1 tornado has been confirmed in Vandalia, Ohio, near Dayton.  A second EF0 tornado was confirmed near Dayton.  High-end EF0 tornado also confirmed in western Kentucky, about 60 miles southwest of Evansville.

NWS storm surveys are on-going across southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southern Indiana & Kentucky.  3 tornadoes have been confirmed in Louisiana & southeastern Texas.

1.31-2.65″ of rainfall was measured from automatic WLFI to personal & NWS AWOS/ASOS stations across the viewing area from this storm system.

I plotted peak measured gusts via anemometers & estimated gusts from spotters (from the line to gusts overnight) on map below:

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THE WEEKEND…………

With partly to mostly cloudy skies & windy conditions, highs will run 55-60 today & 47-54 tomorrow.  A few showers are possible tonight-early Saturday.

Some of the showers will get in by late this evening, mainly Lafayette north & westward.

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Sunday looks mostly sunny & 50-55 with breezy conditions.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…………

Windy conditions & 60s will return early next week with gusts of up to 35 mph from the south.

MID-NEXT WEEK……….

Another significant storm system with rapidly-deepening surface low will pivot from Missouri to Iowa to Wisconsin with lots of wind here (gusts to 40 mph) Wednesday.

It does appear that some severe weather will develop from either here or just south of our area to Mississippi on Wednesday.  Shear parameters favor a QLCS squall line with wind/tornado threat (especially Mississippi to Kentucky), despite meager surface instability of up to 500 J/kg.  120 mph upper jet, 60 mph low-level jet may compensate for the lack of surface CAPE.

We need to watch this as severe threat may be expanded northward as showers/storms pass Wednesday with highs of 65-70.

Behind the front, winds may gust to 42 mph Wednesday night (from the northwest).

2-4″ of rainfall may fall from Texas to southern Missouri from this system with the potential of another solid 1″ of rainfall across our area.

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LATE NEXT WEEK…………

Next Thursday looks partly to mostly cloudy, windy (northwest winds to 32 mph) & colder with perhaps a few flurries & temperatures falling to around 38 by late afternoon.

Friday looks sunny, calm & cool with cold, frosty night after highs around 42.  Overnight lows still look like they may be the coldest of the season at 20-25.

NEXT WEEKEND…………..

Right now, next weekend looks good with sunny to mostly sunny skies & highs of 45-52.

NOVEMBER 11-13………

It does appear November 11-13 that another strong storm system with wind, rain & storms will pass through.  Highs of 60-65 are possible.

NOVEMBER 14-19……….

After highs in the 40s November 14-15 with strong northwest winds 25-35 mph, it appears a cold front will bring some showers around the 16th with highs of 48-54.

Highs by November 17-18 will only run in the 30s with a few snow flurries.

The first widespread teens for overnight lows are possible by around the morning of November 19.

 


Cam’s Weather Vlog for 11/01/13

November 1st, 2013 at 12:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog


Update

October 31st, 2013 at 11:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Narrow squall line has exited & elongated more north to south as deepening surface low races into central Michigan.  The line is producing many Severe T’Storm Warnings east & southeast of here with one Tornado Warning.

Widespread 1-2″ rainfall has occurred with some +2″ amounts.  Some rain continues to fall, so totals will be updated Friday.

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Update

October 31st, 2013 at 8:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

9:55 p.m.:

STORM REPORTS:

Power out on old State Road 25 N

Atlanta:  M56 mph

Morocco:  M42 mph

Rensselaer:  M41 mph

Kentland:  M41 mph

Jasper County Airport AWOS:  M37 mph

Purdue AP ASOS:  M33 mph

WLFI-TV:  M32 mph

9:46 p.m.:

Severe T’Storm Warning continues for Boone County until 10:15 p.m.

Line is exiting our viewing area now.  There are Severe T’Storm Warnings from north of Muncie to southof Bedford, Indiana.  That is a 146-mile long blanket Severe T’Storm Warning.

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9:04 p.m.:

Narrow, rope-like, squally line is racing through along surface cold front with strongest gusts likely in southeastern Montgomery County.

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8:47 p.m.:

 Narrow squall line with NO thunder or lightning is racing through with gusts of 40-50 mph.  Some gusts may reach 60 mph.  There are tornado warning in southern Illinois, where surface instability is greater.

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8:20 p.m.:

Squally rain band is coming through now with gusts to 43 mph.  Once this goes through, we are in good shape.  Our eastern counties may still have a few sporadic gusts 40-60 mph & a brief, weak EF0 spin-up.

Wind gusted here at the station to 32 mph as the line came through.  Purdue Airport gusted to 33 mph.

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Update

October 31st, 2013 at 6:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm Prediction Center has put out Tornado Watch for areas south of Interstate 70 in Indiana.  I still think some sporadic severe gusts/isolated brief, weak EF0 tornado are possible here, despite not technically being in the watch.  Low LCLs (high dew points with that low cloud ceiling) & strong winds at all levels (despite meager  instability) still support this.

Line may tend to gell & swing north as surface low continues to deepen rapidly over Illinois (as +120 mph jet streak arrives).  Also low-level jet (strong now) may tend to strengthen even more this evening.

This LLJ may actually bring a brief, short EF1-EF2 tornado in the watch box area this evening I-70 & southward), given impressive shear there with LLJ.  It would tend to have a track of less than 1.2 miles when taking all of these parameters & comparing then to past similar events.

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Update

October 31st, 2013 at 11:26 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

At WLFI, we hit 67 (66.5) at 11:55 p.m. lastnight & stayed there until 12:45 a.m. (peak at 66.7) this morning.  Since then, we have actually fallen back to 61, but will rise to 70 this evening with lull in the rain.  Covington & Crawfordsville hit 68 lastnight-early this morning.

Wave of rain & a few t’storms will pass through all day.  South to southwest winds will gust to 40 mph at times.

A break in the rain is likely for a bit early this evening as temperatures rise to 65-70 with surface low rapidly-deepening over Illinois & a surface cold front accelerating east & northeastward.

QLCS squall line will likely pass in the evening with sporadic strong to severe gusts & perhaps an isolated EF0 tornado or two.

1-2″ of rainfall with +3″ amounts in our northern counties are likely from this system (total) by tonight.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 10/31/13

October 31st, 2013 at 11:12 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog


Unseasonably Warm Night……….Update on Thursday Weather

October 30th, 2013 at 9:53 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The normal high is in the upper 50s, but tonight, temperatures are running 60-68.  Temperatures have slowly risen since 6 p.m. across all, but the far northern part of the viewing area.

This very warm, moist airmass over the colder ground with a succession of frosts & two hard freezes last week set up the advection fog today.

The warm, juicy air over the colder ground is the set-up for it, but now the winds are strong enough to disperse most of it.

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Waves of showers & t’storms will pass tonight through tomorrow with heavy rainfall at times.  Winds will crank up two with gusts to 40 mph in two waves tomorrow:  one early afternoon & the other in the evening just prior & after cold frontal passage.  They will also gust due to a surface low rapidly deepening over Illinois Thursday.  In fact, it will continue to strengthen & by Friday morning, may have the surface pressure of a Category 2 hurricane over northern Michigan (976 mb).  This will bring damaging NON-T’STORM gradient winds of up to 70 mph from northern Michigan, through Ontario to northwestern New York (High Wind Warnings likely).

A low-topped, narrow, ropey QLCS squall line still looks likely in the evening with sporadic strong-severe gusts & perhaps an isolated, brief, weak, rain-wrapped EF0 tornado or two.

Very strong winds at all levels & sharp pressure falls with rapidly-deepening low will compensate rather weak instability.

1-2″ with isolated 3″ amounts still looks good.

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Friday looks partly cloudy & breezy with highs of 55-60.  Skies will turn cloudy later Friday night with lows of 37-42 with a few showers late.  A few showers are possible Saturday morning as they wrap around low over Ontario, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon & highs of 46-51.  Saturday will also feature breezy conditions.


Cam’s Weather Vlog 10/30/13

October 30th, 2013 at 11:56 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog


Windy & Warmer with Showers/Storms (Some Severe)

October 30th, 2013 at 11:02 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

As warm, moist air is lifted up & over colder, dense air near the ground (with light to calm winds), considerable fog has formed in the area.  Warm front is at about Terre Haute now & with it is stronger winds from the south.  As the warm front lifts northeastward & the winds kick up with an influx of much warmer air, the fog should mix out.  Highs of 65-72 look good for later today.

Several supercells & clusters of supercells with large hail & winds to 60 mph are noted along warm front in Missouri, Iowa & Kansas.  Here, a few showers & storms are possible today with coverage at 35%.

A pretty widespread area of severe t’storms will develop from southwest Iowa to Texas.  Here, showers & t’storms will increase overnight with breezy conditions & temperatures steady in the 60s.

Tomorrow, waves of showers & t’storms will pass through all day with strong south to southwest winds up to 40 mph at times.

It still appears a low-topped squall line (which may not even produce much, if any, thunder or lightning) with some sporadic strong to severe wind gusts will pass in the late afternoon-evening.  Gusts of 45-63 mph are possible with it.  I cannot totally rule out a random spin-up of an EF0 tornado, wrapped in rain, within the line.

Wind will be very strong at low & upper levels & a surface low will be rapidly deepening as it tracks from north-central Illinois to central Michigan with a surface pressure from 992 to 986 mb.

Some rain may linger behind the line through the evening.

A solid 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated 3″ amounts in the north still looks good.

Highs will run the cooler 50s Friday & 40s Saturday.