Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

2013-14 Outlook

October 19th, 2013 at 1:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WEST LAFAYETTE:

OVERALL COLDEST WINTER SINCE 2009-2010 & THE SNOWIEST SINCE 2009-2010 WITH NEARLY 26″ EXPECTED.  COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW SINCE 2008-09 WINTER (-13).  THAT -13 IS AT WEST LAFAYETTE.  SOME LOCATIONS NORTH & NORTHEAST OF WEST LAFAYETTE WILL SEE -20.

WARM SPELLS WILL EVEN OUT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY-COLDER THAN NORMAL.  LOTS OF WIND, WIND SWINGS IN TEMP & LONG STRETCHES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS BETWEEN THE RAPID, BRIEF WARM SPELLS WILL BE THE NORM OVER THE WINTER.

A MODERATE-IMPACT ICING EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH.

FALL:  DROUGHT WILL END…….ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, OVERALL, UNTIL LATTER OCTOBER WHEN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVE.  ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER WITH TRACE OF SNOW.  BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NOVEMBER.  NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL SNOWFALL IN NOVEMBER.

WINTER:  SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATE FEBRUARY, THEN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (OVERALL), SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL SNOWFALL, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION

SPRING:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH-APRIL & BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MAY WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SPRING…………BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL

SUMMER:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL NEXT SUMMER, OVERALL……………

FALL 2014:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL.

WINTER 2014-15:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL & OVERALL PRECIPITATION

TWO 6″ OR GREATER SNOWS…………….ONE IN JANUARY……..ONE IN FEBRUARY

THREE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING EVENTS ARE LIKELY.

2013-14 Snowfall Total:  25.6″

EL NINO/LA NINA:  Neutral fall-winter-spring until El Nino gets going summer-fall with potential weak-moderate event next winter.

ANALOG:  Similar conditions in the Equatorial Pacific existed in 1981-82 winter.  That was a very snowy, cold winter.  2009-10 winter was the snowiest since 1981-82.  However, there was more ice/snowpack in the fall & winter in the far north than what is expected this fall-winter.  SSTs in North Atlantic looked more conducive to long, extended periods of negative NAO/AO then.  Conditions are good for long stretches of negative AO/NAO, but not as much as 1981-82, nor in 2009-10 (most negative AO since 1977).

Neutrality in 1981-82 was followed by the El Nino of 1982-83.

Another similar set-up match was 1968-69.

This period featured neutrality, until El Nino developed in 1969 to 1970 with a mild winter.  That is expected next fall-winter.

SIBERIAN SNOWPACK:  Siberian snowpack is accumulating nicely & will likely be above normal by October.  This can enhance cold waves in our area in the winter.

NAO/AO:  Ocean SST’s in Atlantic favor some extended periods of negative NAO/AO or below-normal temperatures in our area.

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY:  Volcanic activity is on an uptick, specifically in Indonesia, which may contribute some to some below-normal temps.

DECREASE IN SOLAR ACTIVITY & LESS SUNSPOTS:  This will promote more extended periods of negative NAO/AO or below-normal temperatures in our area.

MORE ARCTIC ICE THAN THE PAST TWO WINTERS:  This will translate to a colder winter than the past two.

TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN WARM WEST & COLD EAST:  This will mean a lot of wind, many Alberta Clippers & a large variation in temperatures this winter with the cold winning out more than the warm, however.

This zone will bring above-normal precipitation (snow, rain, sleet, etc.) to our region.

Though there will be a trend for several river rises & minor to moderate river flooding events this winter-spring, I do not expect a big, significant or major flood.

Much more on this soon…………

All other factors in the forecast will be on here soon………….

LAST YEAR’S OUTLOOK:

THIS YEAR’S OUTLOOK:

U.S. Map IIU.S. Map IIIU.S. Map IIV

OCTOBER 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal, Then Below Normal (Will Probably Even Out to Slightly-Below Normal [-0.9])

Max Temperature:  84

Min Temperature:  22

Rainfall:  Above-Normal:  (+1.32″)

Snowfall:  Trace

NOVEMBER 2013

Temperatures:  Below-Normal  (-1.8)

Max Temperature:  72

Min Temperature:  16

Rainfall:  Normal (+0.08″)

Snowfall:  1″

DECEMBER 2013

Temperatures:  Slightly Below-Normal  (-1.0)

Max Temperature:  60

Min Temperature:  8

Rainfall:  Above-Normal (+1.02″)

Snowfall:  Slightly-Above Normal (6.3″) Normal is 5.9″

1″ OR MORE OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS MORNING:  YES.  (4-0 on forecasting whether Christmas is white or not)

JANUARY 2014

Temperatures:  Slightly-Below Normal  (-1.0)

Max Temperature:  60

Min Temperature:  -13

Precipitation:  Above-Normal (+0.68″)

Snowfall:  Slightly-Above Normal (11.0″)  Normal is 7.4″

FEBRUARY 2014

Temperatures:  Averaging Out to Normal  (+0.2)

Max Temperature:  66

Min Temperature:  -7

Precipitation:  Near Normal (+0.05″)

Snowfall:  Slightly-Above Normal (6.3″)  Normal is 4.9″

MARCH 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.0)

Max Temperature:  77

Min Temperature:  15

Precipitation:  Normal (+0.09″)

Snowfall:  Below Normal  (1.0″)

APRIL 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.0)

Max Temperature:  85

Min Temperature:  26

Precipitation:  Normal (-0.04″)

Snowfall: Below-Normal (0)

MAY 2014

Temperatures:  Below-Normal  (-1.6)

Max Temperature:  88

Min Temperature:  32

Precipitation:  Normal (+0.11″)

JUNE 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.5)

Max Temperature:  94

Min Temperature:  45

Precipitation:  Above-Normal (+1.20″)

JULY 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.7)

Max Temperature:  100

Min Temperature:  51

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-0.87″)

AUGUST 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.4)

Max Temperature:  97

Min Temperature:  52

Precipitation:  Normal (+0.21″)

SEPTEMBER 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.0)

Max Temperature:  94

Min Temperature:  37

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-0.68″)

OCTOBER 2014

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.5)

Max Temperature:  84

Min Temperature:  27

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-0.89″)


Historic October 19-20, 1989 Snowstorm

October 19th, 2013 at 11:30 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 19-20, 1989 brought a historic early-season snowfall to our area.  Up to 10.5″ of heavy, wet, gloppy snow fell at Kokomo.  6.7″ fell at Lafayette with 6.0″ at the Purdue Agronomy Farm northwest of West Lafayette.  This was the most significant October snowfall event before the 30th (across central & north-central Indiana) since the historically cold October of 1869 & the great October 1805 snow (when Native Americans were “frightened on account of it” & “never seen the like” at the White River fort).  8″ fell at Fort Wayne with the 1989 event, 12″ was measured in October 1805, according to diary at the White River fort.

October 19-20, 1989 an “Inside Runner” storm brought unseasonably early & heavy snowfall to the region.  Even with very warm temperatures (Purdue Agronomy Farm was 84° on October 15…….just 3° from the record high of 87 set in 1938!), snowfall intensity was such that accumulations of up to 10.5″ occurred.  Snowfall water content topped 1.80″ in places, meaning that if this storm would have occurred in the winter with a colder ground, 18″ could have accumulated.

Gusty winds steady at 15-25 with gusts to 35 mph resulted lots of tree damage across the region due to the weight of the snow on the foliated trees.  Power outages were widespread.

Interestingly, less than a week after the snowstorm, temperatures were in the upper 70s to around 80!  For example, Delphi hit 79° on October 24 after 7.0″ snow & highs only near 33° on October 19!  After 10.5″ of snowfall, Kokomo had a high of 76° on October 24!

Indianapolis, Indiana:

19891989 I

Cincinnati, Ohio:

Purdue University Airport Observations:

AREA SNOWFALL TOTALS:


Penumbral Eclipse, Now Clouds Quickly Overspreading Area

October 18th, 2013 at 9:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Much less striking than Partial & Total Eclipses, the Penumbral Eclipse this evening was still worth a look with a quick peak at 7:50 p.m.

Timing was good for about 3/4 of the viewing area.  Now clouds have shrouded the moon!

Showers will arrive overnight & last into Saturday morning with temperatures leveling off in the lower to middle 40s.

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Penumbral Lunar Eclipse This Evening

October 18th, 2013 at 3:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Penumbral Lunar eclipse tonight 6:50-8:50 p.m. with the peak about 7:50 p.m.  It will not be as striking as a partial or total eclipse, but very interesting to view, nonetheless.  At that point 76.5% of the moon will be covered by a dark brown/red hue of a shadow from Earth.

An eclipse will only occur with a full moon, but it is neat that it is corresponding with the Full Hunter’s Moon being low in the horizon.

Persistent, stubborn low stratus/fog deck in Illinois & into our northwest counties has been migrating eastward, clouding up & chilling our northwest areas.

Also, clipper with thick clouds & showers is edging closer.

This said, hopefully we can stave off widespread, solid cloud deck from either source, but think at least partly cloudy skies for the area is a good wording with best chance of cloudy to mostly cloudy in our northwest counties.

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Cold Start, Nice Friday

October 18th, 2013 at 12:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Lows ranged from 35-41 across the viewing area this morning.

It is warming up nicely this midday, however!  Highs of 57-66 are still likely from northwest to southeast with west to west-southwest winds at 15-25 mph.

Skies will be mostly sunny for most of the day, followed by partly cloudy skies later today & cloudy skies tonight with some scattered showers arriving overnight.

ADI Map II


Historic October 19-20, 1989 Snowstorm

October 17th, 2013 at 10:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 19-20, 1989 brought a historic early-season snowfall to our area.  Up to 10.5″ of heavy, wet, gloppy snow fell at Kokomo.  6.7″ fell at Lafayette with 6.0″ at the Purdue Agronomy Farm northwest of West Lafayette.  This was the most significant October snowfall event before the 30th (across central & north-central Indiana) since the historically cold October of 1869 & the great October 1805 snow (when Native Americans were “frightened on account of it” & “never seen the like” at the White River fort).  8″ fell at Fort Wayne with the 1989 event, 12″ was measured in October 1805, according to diary at the White River fort.

October 19-20, 1989 an “Inside Runner” storm brought unseasonably early & heavy snowfall to the region.  Even with very warm temperatures (Purdue Agronomy Farm was 84° on October 15…….just 3° from the record high of 87 set in 1938!), snowfall intensity was such that accumulations of up to 10.5″ occurred.  Snowfall water content topped 1.80″ in places, meaning that if this storm would have occurred in the winter with a colder ground, 18″ could have accumulated.

Gusty winds steady at 15-25 with gusts to 35 mph resulted lots of tree damage across the region due to the weight of the snow on the foliated trees.  Power outages were widespread.

Interestingly, less than a week after the snowstorm, temperatures were in the upper 70s to around 80!  For example, Delphi hit 79° on October 24 after 7.0″ snow & highs only near 33° on October 19!  After 10.5″ of snowfall, Kokomo had a high of 76° on October 24!

Indianapolis, Indiana:

19891989 I

Cincinnati, Ohio:

Purdue University Airport Observations:

AREA SNOWFALL TOTALS:

 


Patchy Frost………& Patchy Fog Tonight………..Weekend Outlook

October 17th, 2013 at 9:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs today ranged from 52-60.  Where the sun came out a bit earlier, it was in the upper 50s to 60, where it was largely overcast all day, the temperature only reached 52.

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Patchy frost will develop late tonight-early Friday morning with some patchy fog, was lows drop into the 30s.

Tomorrow looks good with mostly sunny skies becoming partly cloudy with southwest winds 15-25 mph & highs in the 60s, but some scattered showers will arrive Friday night with mid 40s.

Some scattered showers are possible Saturday morning, followed by some sun.  However, in the afternoon-evening, clouds will really bubble up & some scattered showers will re-develop (perhaps even a couple t’showers).  Highs will run 55-60.  West-southwest winds will run 15-25 mph.  Coverage for both waves of some scattered rain will run 25-30%.

Sunday looks partly cloudy with highs of 55-60 & southwest winds at 15-25 mph, after morning lows in the 30s.

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The Afternoon-Evening-Tonight

October 17th, 2013 at 1:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Clouds are breaking up for sun just west of the state line & this clearing line is working east & northeastward slowly.

So, any scattered showers/drizzle will pull out of here & some partial clearing will ensue this afternoon-evening from southwest to northeast.

Temperatures will warm to 56-62 (I cut it back just a hair from the 58-63 of last night) with west to southwest winds at 10-20 mph.  With clearing, Springfield, Illinois skyrocketed from 50 to 59 rapidly.  We have 51 at the station now.  With end to the rain & some clearing, 60 is still a good bet.

With mostly clear skies, we will drop into the 30s tonight (35-38) with some patchy frost.  If the light breeze does go calm, patchy fog may develop.

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NOAA’s Drought Monitor As of October 15

October 17th, 2013 at 10:40 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Abnormally dry (D0) conditions continue for part of the viewing area as of October 15.  Recent rains have eradicated the Moderate Drought, but Severe to Extreme Drought continues in parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois & Missouri.

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Cold Front/Upper Disturbance with Spotty Showers

October 16th, 2013 at 10:19 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Where skies have cleared tonight, it is downright cold!  Where they are still cloudy or have turned cloudy, there are not as bad.

Temperatures vary from 41 to 51 from south to north across the viewing area.  I think lows will vary tonight from 38-45.

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Regardless, cold front & upper disturbance are booking it east & northeastward.

That said, will raise lows a hair to 38-45, (given rapid arrival of clouds from west as stratus erodes), rather than 36-43.  Also, it appears that spotty showers will most likely occur in the morning-midday, then more sun will appear, with this fast-moving front.

2

Highs of 58-63 look good with breezy conditions (southwest to west winds at 10-20 mph).

Tomorrow night appears to turn clear with lows in the 30s, followed by mostly sunny skies & highs of 61-66 with southwest winds at 15-25 mph Friday.