Storms are popping in Newton & Jasper counties, but they are not severe right now. We will continue to watch Illinois for any new development. There area a few storms developing nearer to the Mississippi River.
Scattered storm forecast for the evening looks good with a eye toward any storms trying to gell into a line. Will continue to monitor for any isolated severe threat of wind/hail.
Widespread, significant damaging winds have occurred in parts of southern Indiana with damage to some structures with lots of trees down.
Evolving southern Indiana bow appears to be the main event developing with T’Storm Watch along/south of I-70. Here, will continue to watch where the greatest sunshine appears, will watch subtle shortwave to the west & cold front for some storms to pop.
This will need to monitored hourly. If storms can really go, then at least isolated/sporadic wind threat would develop with areas of heavy rainfall.
However, to summarize, the main threat for widespread, damaging straight line winds is developing in the southern part of Indiana, into Kentucky.
Folks, we’re in for another active day ahead. A weak low pressure system will track through the heart of our viewing area beginning this afternoon. It will usher in scattered showers and thunderstorms; due to the warm temperatures and high moisture content of the air some of these storms may be severe in nature. The entire viewing area, as well as the entire state of Indiana, is under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. The main threats throughout the afternoon and evening will be hail larger than an inch in diameter and strong straight line winds in excess of 60 mph. While our last two severe weather events have been well formed lines of storms, this event will be an unorganized rotation of pop up storms. The strongest storms may develop as early as 3:00 PM ET and last past 10:00 PM ET.
Scattered storms, storm clusters & a few line segments are approaching/pass through. Very isolated wind/hail cannot be ruled out, along with torrential rainfall in heaviest storms.
The sun is out in western Illinois & actual surface cold front & subtle shortwave are in Iowa & Missouri (the stronger shortwave is in Illinois).
This will need to be monitored. Hi-res short-term data suggest new storm development & perhaps a line of storms by late afternoon-evening here as they develop near front & move eastward.
We will watch to see how this evolves & if any line can form. There is extensive capping in western Missouri, Kansas & Nebraska. If that moves east over front & overtakes shortwave, line may be a bit more difficult to form.
Front will pass tonight, rain will tend to exit.
Tomorrow & Friday, two upper troughs will pivot through along with a secondary surface cold front. This may pop a few scattered storms.
I appears a third upper trough may pivot through Saturday, while a massive ridge with record heat & wildfires develops in the West. This may pop a few scattered storms, too.
Several scattered storms, storm clusters & line segments of storms are approaching from the west & are located just northeast & south of the viewing area.
Scattered storms with a couple of line segments of storms will pass this morning through midday. Isolated severe gusts are possible, along with isolated hail. Torrential rainfall will accompany the heaviest storms (2-3″ per hour).
Through the afternoon, scattered storms are possible (isolated wind/hail) with a tendency (per hi-res model data from RPM to HRRR to WRF) for a line of storms to congeal in eastern Illinois & sweep viewing area in the evening.
As long as it stays cloudy & a bit cooler, severe threat with it & any other storm will tend to be isolated, but if the sun comes out for an extended period of time, severe threat will go up.
Regardless, stronger mid & upper flow may cause this line to form & with it, again some isolated severe gusts will develop (& isolated hail). Again, if there is more sun ahead of it, wind threat will go up & increase in coverage & intensity.
Torrential rainfall rates are possible with it.
That said, with any scattered storms, line segments, clusters or that eventual line, torrential rainfall may result in flash flooding. Thus, NWS has Flash Flood Watch for entire viewing area through today & tonight.
Severe T’Storm Watch has been extended to 6 a.m. Eastern for western half of viewing area, per NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
Reason is +50 mph low-level jet nosing into central Illinois, helping to pop isolated large hailers & wind-producers. Jet is forcing hot, juicy, unstable air over the top of rain-cooled airmass resulting in “elevated” storms.
These storms are showing tremendous lightning with torrential rainfall, too.
Line is fizzling here (with a large area of rain with some thunder/lightning), but still intense near Terre Haute to Greencastle. New storms are firing in Illinois as low-level jet noses in. On its nose are several multi-cells & supercell-type storms. Other severe storms are gelling into a line in northeastern Indiana.
That said, storm potential will continue through the evening & those new storms in Illinois could be at least isolated severe at any point (wind, hail, brief very isolated tornado) & pass through as least part of the viewing area overnight to early morning. Locally-heavy rainfall is possible from any of those.
There are a lot of storms & a lot of warnings around us, but here we are fairing ok after gustiness a bit earlier. Gusts of 65 mph have been reported to the northeast of the viewing area & 63 mph west of the viewing area.
Crawfordsville: M55 mph (Can anyone verify this in the Crawfordsville area? This station read gust of 99 mph last night & 102 mph early today…………It has had glitches & want to make sure this gust is accurate…………….It seems to conform with the radar wind data at time of gust.)
Covington: M51 mph
Cass County Airport: M43 mph
Attica: M42 mph
Fulton County Airport: M39 mph
Near Mulberry: Large limb down just north of 750 west