10:45 p.m. Update
A severe weather outbreak occurred in our area late on April 21. Clean-up was in full swing on April 22. Morocco was hardest hit with F4 tornado. 10 people were killed & 77 people injured in the town. 2 more people were killed east of Morocco. 20 farmsteads were completely destroyed with heavy damage in the town.
Damage was reported at $500,000 in Morocco. Inflation figured for 2014, that would be over $12 million dollars today!
This violent tornado & HP supercell originated along the Mississippi River near Keokuk, Illinois. Current evidence points toward one single significant tornado track with major damage from northeast of Bloomington, Illinois to east of Morocco from this supercell.
In the west-central Illinois town of Bushnell, 30 were killed & 100 injured by a significant tornado from this storm early in its life cycle. Tornado that would hit Morocco produced tornado at Chatsworth, Illinois, 40 miles northeast of Bloomington with damage there, but no deaths.
There was another tornado track that paralelled this one about 30 miles to the north. Odell & Dwight, Illinois were heavily damaged with several people injured & killed.
There were other tornado tracks in Illinois, but focus on this map is on the violent, signficant supercell long-track tornadoes
After 54-63 today, we will drop to 30-33 tonight with frost. With gradual increase in cirrus, highs of 57-65 look good tomorrow. Cirrus will really thicken & lower to altostratus Wednesday evening as warm front approaches area & passes through tomorrow night.
Forecast remains unchanged, really. See previous forecast below.
5:40 p.m. Update
Soils continue to warm for corn planting. The average bare soil temperature at 4″ depth (at 10 a.m.) yesterday & today was 60 & 56 at West Lafayette.
Temperature are not too bad……………bit cool in our east & northeast, though.
The green-up continues, however, as seen on our Renaissance Cam.
Frost & a light freeze is likely tonight with calm wind, dry air & mainly clear skies.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny, though the high thin cirrus clouds will thicken later in the day. The sun will likely be dimmed & faded quite a bit by early evening as the cirrus thicken & lower ahead of an approaching surface warm front.
Diffuse dryline/front will approach Thursday with dew points surging to 55-59 ahead of it here (strong south to southwest winds to 35, perhaps 40 mph at times).
Behind it, dew points will drop to the 30s.
This will be focus of a line of showers & t’storms that will pass in the evening.
A few sporadic strong to severe wind gusts are possible at the leading edge of it. Rainfall doesn’t look too impressive with it at 0.15-0.45″.
Behind it, warm, dry downsloping winds from the Plains & Desert Southwest will arrive Friday. With mostly sunny skies, west winds may gust to 40 mph at times with highs near 78 & dew points dropping to the 30s. The relative humidity may drop as low as 23%. This will lead to elevated brush fire danger with dry grasses of last year’s growth & abundant rather dry leaf litter in woodlands.
Cold front will pass Friday night, leading to cooler Saturday. Highs of 54-61 are likely with brisk northwest winds to 32 mph.
Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with only scattered fair weather cumulus.
System in the Plains looks to move & bit farther northeastward Sunday-Monday, as strong surface high slides towards Pennsylvania.
This will bring periodic rainfall with some embedded t’storms to our biewing area Monday, but the high will prevent the warm air from overspreading area & bringing severe threat.
Temperatures could be around 80 & dew points in the 60s around St. Louis with severe weather potential Monday. Here, highs of 54-59 look likely with stiff east to southeast wind.
Current projections suggest around 0.50″ of rainfall. Heavier totals of 1″ or more may fall southwest of our area. We will watch to make sure those heavier totals do not shift northeastward.