Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Record Vs. Projected Lows For Early Saturday Morning

March 27th, 2015 at 4:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The scattered snow showers will taper this evening, followed by gradual clearing.

Record & projected lows for early Saturday morning:

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No Need to Worry………But……….

March 27th, 2015 at 2:48 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

No need to worry………….this cold & snow will be a distant memory come mid to late next week!

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Sharp cold front may arrive around Saturday, April 4, though.

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Outlook to April 14

March 26th, 2015 at 10:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This gives you of the trends being monitored over the next 2.5 weeks.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT…………….

After 23-26 tonight with partly cloudy skies, skies will turn mostly cloudy by Friday morning with windy conditions (north to northwest gusts to 32 mph) with scattered snow showers.  Brief, local dustings are possible.

The projected high of 33 in West Lafayette would make it the 7th coldest March 27 since 1879.

Lows Friday night will drop to 12-17.  The record for West Lafayette & Veedersburg is 13 set in 1934 with 14 as the record low at Frankfort set in 1934.  Elsewhere, the temperature will not come close to the record lows owing to snow pack on March 28, 1934.

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15DMA Map II

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…………..

Saturday will still be cool at 35-41, but there will be much less wind compared to Friday.  This, with mostly sunny skies, will lead to a reasonably pleasant day with a coat on.  Winds look north at 5-10 mph.

Clouds will be on the increase Saturday night & after temperatures fall to near 25, they will begin to slowly rise after 1 a.m. to around 30 by early Sunday morning with northeast & east winds at 5-10 mph turning southeast to south at 10 mph.

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SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT…………..

With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies Sunday, winds will be strong ahead of a surface cold front, gusting from the south & southwest to 32 mph with sustained winds around 22 mph.

A wave of scattered showers is likely in the afternoon to evening with highs at 47-54.  Rainfall amounts look light at 0.02-0.13″.

With front through, winds westerly at 10-15 mph, lows of 33-37 seem good for Sunday night-early Monday morning.

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MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT………….

As for Monday, wind will turn westerly to southwesterly pretty rapidly, so we will actually be warmer than Sunday with the sunshine.

It will be a windy day with gusty west to west-southwest to southwest winds at 20-35 mph with highs at 55-60 & 36-42 Monday night (with southwest winds diminishing & turning east-southeast to southeast at 5-10 mph).  Some areas of high & mid clouds may pass as warm front lifts northward toward & into the area.

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TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT……………..

With northward migration of the surface warm front Tuesday, strong southerly to southwesterly winds will usher in highs of 65-70 with partly cloudy skies.  Tuesday night, lows of 47-54 are likely with southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph & partly cloudy skies.

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WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT…………..

Wednesday will be windy with gusty south to southwest winds at 20-35 mph with highs of 69-74 with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  If we can make it a mostly sunny day, it could go warmer than this.

A couple spotty showers are possible in the afternoon-evening.  Severe weather threat may develop from southern Iowa to Oklahoma.

Wednesday night looks quite mild with strong south to southwest winds at 25-40 mph with temperatures hanging around 60-65 most of the night until the band of showers passes (few t’showers possible) late Wednesday night-Thursday morning which will occur with passage of surface cold front.  This front will cool the area to 47-54 by early Thursday morning.

There is only enough elevated CAPE likely available for lightning/thunder discharge & nothing more, it appears right now.

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THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT…………..

Once the showers exit, a dry, gusty west to west-northwest wind will shunt the cold east & not really cool us off much.  Much of the low stratus/stratocumulus around the surface low will be shunted east, but it may get hung up in our northeast.  This would keep our northeast mostly cloudy Thursday & thus cooler than the rest of the area.

Regardless, the winds may gust to 30 mph with sustained winds at 10-20 mph.  Highs of 58 to 67 are likely with lows of 37-46 Thursday night with west winds around 10 mph.

Even Friday, conditions will remain breezy with highs of 59-65 area-wide with partly cloudy skies.

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APRIL 4-5………

It should stay warm/mild early next week to around Saturday April 4, it appears.

A stronger surface cold front may approach April 4 as pretty strong Arctic high builds southward over Manitoba.  West of this high, a big upper ridge in the west will make a deep trough in the east.

This spells a brief, but decent cold snap.

Saturday, April 4 is the best estimated of timing for the front with temperatures cooling to the 40s after highs at 58-66.  Lows of 28-32 are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning (April 5).

Highs on Sunday, April 5, may only run 44-49, based on the latest analysis.

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APRIL 6-9…………..

April 6-8 pattern favors a rather cool, northwest flow regime with a weak clipper or two with breezy-windy conditions & a few rain/snow showers.  Lows may drop to the 20s (perhaps a 20- to 25-degree night)

APRIL 10-14…………

My thinking is that cool pattern will flip-flop to a warm pattern with 70s & 80 after April 8.

 

 


Rain/Snow/Sleet Long Gone, But Some More Sct’d Snow Showers Friday……Near Record Cold

March 26th, 2015 at 2:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The rain/snow/sleet from this morning is long-gone & we are getting some slow clearing with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Only trace amounts of snow/sleet occurred.

Anywhere from 0.50 to 1.40″ of rainfall occurred over the past two days, per reports viewed & received.

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With partly cloudy skies, lows tonight will drop well down into the 20s.

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With skies becoming mostly cloudy Friday, some scattered snow showers are possible.  Northwest to north-northwest winds will be strong at 20-30 mph.  With the wind & highs at only 30-36, wind chills will stay in the teens most of the day.

The record low high temperature for March 27 at West Lafayette is 21 set in 1955.  The record low temperature for March 28 is 13 set in 1934.

In showing how one year can vary greatly from the next, the high on March 27, 1894 was 35 with a low of 14.  Just a year later, March 27, 1895, the high was 76!

The forecast high of 33 Friday would make it the 7th coldest 27th since 1879 & the Saturday morning low of 15 would fall 2 degrees shy of the 1934 record.

DMA Map II15

Near record cold is possible for our central & southwestern counties Saturday morning.  Lows area wide may run 13-17.

Saturday will feature sun & much less wind with highs at 35-41.

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Some Wet Snow In the Morning

March 25th, 2015 at 10:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NW Chicago Metro quake this evening:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10001qrx#general_summary

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It has been an active evening from southern Illinois to Oklahoma.  Several tornadoes have been reported with hail up to softball size & wind gust to 80 mph.  Sadly, one person was killed & several injured by a tornado near Tulsa, Oklahoma.  Much more typical to see this weather now, than the extreme quiet severe weather regime of late.

Warnings issued so far this evening (as of 10:30 p.m.):

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Still looks rain with a couple of t’storms tonight.  This rain may end as some snow tomorrow morning.  Grass & car tops may be whitened as temperatures fall to 33-35.

Some partial clearing is possible in the afternoon-evening with a gusty northwest wind at 15-30 mph.  Highs of 37-42 seem reasonable.


F5/EF5 Tornado List For U.S.

March 25th, 2015 at 10:04 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Violent EF5 tornadoes that obsolutely obliterate everything in their path are not new in their occurrence.  History has shown that this massive, violent twisters have been occurring with no uptick or downturn in trends (decade by decade) since the earliest records & reports have commenced in the United States.

Here is a list of those F5/EF5 twisters.  The 1952-current data comes from SPC.  Prior data is personal research per damage reports (with study of width & track length, as well) & classification by the National Weather Service.

NOTE:  The March 20, 1866 tornado in Montgomery County was possibly a high-end EF4, but it currently does not appear to have been an EF5.  The long-track May 1917 tornado in Indiana has been arguably classified as an EF5 by some, but it was definitely high-end EF4.

The March 1913 Terre Haute tornado was likely a solid EF4, per photos & damage descriptions.

1952-present (courtesy of SPC):

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NUMBER	DATE                    LOCATION
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60      May 31, 2013            El Reno OK
59	May 20, 2013		Moore OK
58	May 24, 2011		El Reno/Piedmont OK
57	May 22, 2011		Joplin MO
56	April 27, 2011		Rainsville/Sylvania AL
55	April 27, 2011		Preston MS
54	April 27, 2011		Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL
53	April 27, 2011		Smithville MS
52	May 25, 2008		Parkersburg IA
51      May 4, 2007             Greensburg KS
50	May 3, 1999             Bridge Creek/Moore OK
49	April 16, 1998          Waynesboro TN
48	April 8, 1998           Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL
47	May 27, 1997            Jarrell TX
46	July 18, 1996           Oakfield WI
45	June 16, 1992           Chandler MN
44	April 26, 1991          Andover KS
43	August 28, 1990         Plainfield IL
42	March 13, 1990          Goessel KS
41	March 13, 1990          Hesston KS
40	May 31, 1985            Niles OH
39	June 7, 1984            Barneveld WI
38	April 2, 1982           Broken Bow OK
37	April 4, 1977           Birmingham AL
36	June 13, 1976           Jordan IA
35	April 19, 1976          Brownwood TX
34	March 26, 1976          Spiro OK
33	April 3, 1974           Guin AL 
32	April 3, 1974           Tanner AL 
31	April 3, 1974           Mt. Hope AL 
30	April 3, 1974           Sayler Park OH 
29	April 3, 1974           Brandenburg KY 
28	April 3, 1974           Xenia OH  
27	April 3, 1974           Daisy Hill IN  
26	May 6, 1973             Valley Mills TX
25	February 21, 1971       Delhi LA
24	May 11, 1970            Lubbock TX
23	June 13, 1968           Tracy MN
22	May 15, 1968            Maynard IA
21	May 15, 1968            Charles City IA
20	April 23, 1968          Gallipolis OH
19	October 14, 1966        Belmond IA
18	June 8, 1966            Topeka KS
17	March 3, 1966           Jackson MS
16	May 8, 1965             Gregory SD
15	May 5, 1964             Bradshaw NE
14	April 3, 1964           Wichita Falls TX
13	May 5, 1960             Prague OK
12	June 4, 1958            Menomonie WI
11	December 18, 1957       Murphysboro IL
10	June 20, 1957           Fargo ND
9	May 20, 1957            Ruskin Heights MO
8	April 3, 1956           Grand Rapids MI
7	May 25, 1955            Udall KS
6	May 25, 1955            Blackwell OK
5	December 5, 1953        Vicksburg MS
4	June 27, 1953           Adair IA
3	June 8, 1953            Flint MI
2	May 29, 1953            Ft. Rice ND
1	May 11, 1953            Waco TX

1821-1951

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NUMBER	DATE                    LOCATION
======	=====================   ===========================
62	September 26, 1951	Waupaca OK
61	May 31, 1947		Leedey OK 
60	April 9, 1947		Woodward OK 
59	April 12, 1945		Antlers OK 
58	June 14, 1944		Summit SD 
57	April 29, 1942		Oberlin KS 
56	April 28, 1942		Crowell TX 
55	March 16, 1942		Lacon IL
54      June 18, 1939           Anoka MN 
53	April 14, 1939          Vici OK/Kiowa KS 
52	June 10, 1938           Clyde TX 
51	April 26, 1938          Oshkosh NE 
50	April 5, 1936           Tupelo MS/Gainesville GA 
49	May 22, 1933            Tryon NE 
48	April 10, 1929          Sneed, AR 
47	May 7, 1927             McPherson KS 
46	April 12, 1927          Rock Springs TX 
45	June 3, 1925            Council Bluffs IA 
44	June 3, 1925            Logan IA 
43	March 18, 1925          Missouri-Illinois-Indiana
42	September 21, 1924      North-Central Wisconsin 
41	May 14, 1923            Big Spring TX
40	March 11, 1923          Pinson TN 
39	April 20, 1920          Northern AL
38	March 28, 1920          West Liberty IN/Van Wert OH 
37	June 22, 1919           Fergus Falls MN 
36	May 21, 1918            Denison IA  
35	May 21, 1918            Boone County IA  
34	May 25, 1917            Southern KS
33	June 11, 1915           Mullinville KS 
32	June 15, 1912           Creighton MO  
31	June 5, 1908            Carleton NE   
30	April 23, 1908          Pender NE  
29	June 5, 1905            Coling MI
28	May 10, 1905            Snyder OK 
27	June 12, 1899           New Richmond WI 
26	May 18, 1898            Marathon Co. WI 
25	May 25, 1896            Oakland Co. MI 
24	May 17, 1896            Northeast KS/Southeast NE 
23	May 15, 1896            Sherman TX 
22	May 3, 1895             Sioux Co. IA 
21	September 21, 1894      Northwest IA/Southeast MN 
20	July 6, 1893            Pomeroy IA 
19	May 22, 1893            Darlington WI 
18	June 15, 1892           Southern MN
17	April 1, 1884           Oakville IN (Delaware Co.)
16      March 25, 1884          Scipio IN (Jennings Co.)
15	August 21, 1883         Rochester MN 
14	June 17, 1882           Grinnell IA 
13	June 12, 1881           Hopkins MO 
12	April 24, 1880          Christian Co. IL 
11       May 30, 1879           Irving KS
10       May 30, 1879           Jackson Co. MO
9       May 22, 1873            Southeast IA
8	June 29, 1865           Viroqua WI 
7	June 3, 1860            Camanche IA 
6       June 13, 1857           Christian Co. IL
5	September 20, 1845      Northern NY to VT
4	June 5, 1844            Eastern IA to Northern IL
3	May 7, 1840             Natchez MS 
2       July 25, 1838           Alleghany Co. NY
2       May 18, 1825            Central OH
1       September 3, 1821       VT to Northeastern MA


Some Snow?

March 25th, 2015 at 4:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is pushing 80 in parts of the Louisville, KY metro now with 70 as far north as central Ohio.  Warm front now as far north as the south Indianapolis metro with temperatures pushing 60.

Here 50s south of 24 will move in this evening with rain & few t’storms overnight.  North of 24, it should stay in the 40s.

It appears there is a meso-high of 1018 mb over the icy waters of Lake Michigan keeping the surface warm front south of our area today.  I have seen this every years I have been here, except 2012.  Lake Michigan’s icy cold water greatly affects the onset of spring here.  Cold air surging from the lake may retard spring by 2-3 weeks around here, compared to similar areas to the west & east.  If Lake Michigan were not there, it would be different.

HERE’S WHAT IS INTERESTING………………As cold air rushes in tomorrow morning & temperatures fall to 33-36 7 a.m. to 9 a.m., it is POSSIBLE that the rain may change to a period of wet snow.  The best chance is northeast of Lafayette, but I cannot rule out a changeover in the Lafayette area either.  If it snows long enough, grassy areas & car tops may be whitened.  It should melt quickly, however, with highs at 37-42.


Update

March 25th, 2015 at 2:17 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is 70 around Columbus, Ohio now with mid 50s as far north as south side Indy Metro.

The Evansville, Indiana area is surging into the lower 70s, while parts of western Kentucky as now as high as 77.

North side of Dayton, Ohio is 57, southside is 66 as warm front lifts through that city.

Indianapolis International Airport has 50, but Shelbyville Airport is 55, while Franklin on southside of Metro is 57.

Here at WLFI, we continue to hold at 46.6 & have not budged a single bit for 1.5 hours.

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Latest short-range models look to bring 60 line to Indianapolis & 50s south of U.S. 24 this evening.

Showers & a few t’storms will arrive overnight.

Below is projection for 1 a.m.

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Rain may last into Thursday morning & end as some snow with best chance of this northeast of Lafayette.  If there would be any accumulation, it would be light.

As for the day, it just looks windy & mostly cloudy to cloudy with perhaps a few scattered flurries with highs of 37-41.  Low temperatures will drop to 23-27.

Scattered snow showers with mostly cloudy skies & windy conditions with record cold highs of 30-35 are likely Friday.  A dusting/coating of snow is possible in places with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph at times.

Lows of 12-17 Saturday morning will near/at record cold levels in our central & southwestern counties.  We will not even be close to the record in the north & northeast, however.  There, records lows at/below 0 occurred on the date due to snow on the ground.

Oddly, the record low of 13 for March 28 was set in 1934, which had one of the hottest, driest summers on record, just behind 1936!

DMA Map II


Typical Late March Quirks: Two Different Seasons Over Indiana Today

March 25th, 2015 at 12:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We are holding at 47 at WLFI as of 1:15 p.m., north of the surface warm front.  Temperatures are now reaching 70 in the far southern parts of the state.

The forecast quandary is how far north the warm front gets.  Considerable rainfall over Oklahoma has forced from back to the central parts of that state, but clearing has forced it back north to around St. Louis to southern Indiana.

Current SPC Mesoscale analysis places the warm front roughly along U.S. 50 in southern Illinois & Indiana.

Thought is that as low lifts northward, front will lift northward, but I am doubtful with a more southerly track that the 60s will get into the area.  50s are possible, but not 60s.  The NWS NDFD does bring that 60 line to perhaps our southeastern counties this evening, but I think upper 50s are more likely.  NAM brings mid 50s as far north as U.S. 24, but that may be pushing it.

The best chance of 50s are south of U.S. 24.

Overall, it is just a difficult temperature forecast based on how far north the warm front gets.  One things for sure, it is not & will not move as far north as it looked yesterday & last night.

Another round of showers & a few t’storms will pass tonight.  Severe threat will remain south of our area.

CURRENT REGIONAL ANALYSIS & OVERNIGHT PROJECTED RADAR SNAP-SHOT (AROUND 1 A.M.):

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Near Record Cold Possible Late Week

March 25th, 2015 at 11:17 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs today will run in the upper 50s to mid 60s with gradual clearing possible, followed by a round of showers & even a few t’storms tonight.  Severe weather will occur far southern Indiana to Texas with the potential of wind, hail & a couple/few tornadoes.  Conditions look ripe for very large hail in Oklahoma of up to softball size later today.

If we would happen to stay cloudy all day, then temperatures may stay in the 50s to around 60 & since warm front has dropped back south, we are on the cool side again right now.

Right now, it is 67 at Louisville, 65 at Owensboro, Kentucky & 63 at Cincinnati, Ohio.  HRRR model only bring warm front to our southern counties today, but I think it may get into the area, which is why I did bump temps to the upper 50s to mid 60s.

I say this in response to surface low & cold front approaching from the west, which would tend to push the warm front northward today.  So, it may still warm us up, but how much will be governed by timing of low cloud deck erosion.

After some morning rain, tomorrow just looks windy & cold with highs near 41 with 25 tomorrow night.

Friday will be unseasonably cold with highs at only around 35 with a strong northwest wind & some scattered snow showers.  A dusting is possible in places.

Near-record cold is likely Friday night with lows near 14.  The record for West Lafayette is 13.

We’ll hit 40 Saturday, 51 Sunday, 60 Monday & may even get to 70 my mid-next week.  However, at that time, showers & t’storms are possible with perhaps even some showers/t’storms as early as Sunday night-Monday as warm front moves through.