High temperatures will reach at least 70 degrees  in many areas Sunday & Monday, November 7 & November 8.

It is highly likely these readings will be the last 70s until spring, given the history of the last occurrence of 70s in the fall across our area.

The record highs for Sunday & Monday are 74-79 in our viewing area, respectively.

New entry on the last occurrence of 70 degrees coming up!

Temperatures will warm up nicely on gusty south winds Friday-Monday…………

Cold front will pass Tuesday with some showers/few t’storms, but the heaviest, most widespread rains will stay to our south & southeast as “Ida” moisture is whisked away from us.

Wednesday looks blustery & cool with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

It will warm up briefly next Thursday-Friday with highs in the 50s.

A stronger cold front is possible a week from Saturday.

This has the potential to bring the coldest air of the season to our area.

This graphic really exhibits how wet October was in the eastern U.S.

Every single green dot is an official National Weather Service weather station that had their WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.  The larger gray dots indicate stations with October rainfall totals in the top 5.  Nearly every station in the Midwest had October rainfall in at least the top 5 wettest Octobers.  Most of the records go back 1895-1900.

Notice the number of stations across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Kentucky & Missouri that had their wettest October on record.

Most of these stations’ October 2009 ranked in the top 10 coolest, as well.

The cold will erode eastward & the +60 temperatures will arrive as early as Friday…………even Thursday looks nice with highs in the 50s.

The warmth will overspread the area with likely the last REALLY NICE, warm weekend of the year.

Clouds will increase Monday as moisture from “Ida” arrives.

One of two scenarios will occur with “Ida”………..either she moves due north & gells with the cold front to bring 1-2″ rain easily to our area.

Or, the front will pull “Ida” northward & then divert her eastward way from our area.  If that happens, our rainfall totals will be held down as the front zips through the area with 0.30-0.50″ rain amounts.

Cooler temperatures will arrive by Wednesday with highs only in the 40s.

.

A long stretch of dry weather with warming temperatures will be the weather story until Tuesday, when a potent cold front arrives.

At the present time, the influx of Gulf & Pacific moisture doesn’t look great, so rainfall of 0.30-0.50″ is likely.

Also, despite the strength of the cold front & the wind dynamics aloft, instability may preclude any severe threat.

STAY TUNED, AS THIS COULD CHANGE, BUT THAT IS THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW.

Highs will be in the low 70s by Monday (the last 70s of the season).

Alberta Clipper will arrive tonight with scattered showers along its warm front.  It appears some wet snowflakes/sleet may mix in.

With calming winds, only thin clouds & dry air, the temperature will plummet to 31° by late evening.

However, as the clipper’s warm front arrives, a south wind will commence & a mid-level cloud deck with overspread the sky by midnight.  Thus, the temperature will rise to 36°.

The scattered showers will approach by 4-5 am & as they precipitate downward, they will encounter dry air in the mid-levels & towards the surface.

That said, even though the temperature my rise into the mid to upper 30s, dew points will be in the 20s.  So, we will likely evaporatively cool to around 33-34°, despite a south wind pumping in warmer air.  If not for that, we would cool below freezing.

So, some wet snow/sleet will likely mix in with the showers, though no accumulation is expected.

Once this warm front passes, despite cloudiness (shower or two), the temperature will warm 51-55° for a high around 2-3 pm, before cooling into the 40s by 5-6 pm with the passage of the cold front.  A few showers will accompany the cold frontal passage.

JUST CLICK ON EACH IMAGE FOR A BETTER VIEW………….

There are usually two phases of Indian Summer.  One occurs in October after the first light freeze & then a second after the first moderate to hard killing freeze………..during November.

The second Indian Summer will arrive by the weekend & early next week ushering in some of the finest weather of the year.  Enjoy it because these will likely be the last 70-73 readings until March.

After a couple of Alberta clippers with lots of clouds, rather breezy conditions & some chilly showers Wednesday-Wednesday night, Thursday looks cool & breezy…………..after that, the warmth arrives.

Chilly with a couple clippers with clouds & few showers early-mid this week.

Warmth will begin to arrive Friday with sunshine & highs of 55-60.

Like shaking a rope, a trough in the West will create a ridge in the Plains & force the warmth eastward.

The ol’ West Virginia-Mid Atlantic high, which brings Indian Summer has been a climatological staple since the earliest weather records commenced in the Midwest.

It usually brought sunny, very dry weather with warm days after the killing frost/freeze.

During pioneer times, this pattern brought smoky, hazy weather to our region as many of the prairies were burned by our Native Americans.

Often, a strong front with t’storms (lightning) would produce a prairie fire & it being kicked up from the gusty winds & few firebreaks, would burn from Hoopeston to Chalmers or Watseka to Winamac, unless rain extinguished the prairie blaze sooner.

The hilly terrain along the Wabash would stop alot of the prairie fires & thus, much of the timber from Lafayette to Delphi to Logansport was spared.

Prairie fires were often frequent in March, too.

The warmth will modify over the cooler & damp ground, but mostly sunny skies, brisk south/southwest winds & temps of near  70 to even 73 look possible Saturday-Tuesday.

A sharp cold front with quite a bit of wind is possible Tuesday evening.

At the present time, despite impressive dynamics, it appears there may be a lack of instability & moisture with the front.

Some scattered showers & t’storms will be possible & long-range models crank out 0.40-0.70″ of rain with the cold front.

However, at the present forecasting time, I am not going with a “SIGNIFICANT” rain of 1″ or greater until November 16 or later.

Stay tuned for any changes to current forecast guidance……………….

RAINY, WET OCTOBER………………….

Using the West Lafayette COOP station data back to 1901, here at WLFI it is the coolest since 1987, wettest since 2001.

Overall, this is the 5th wettest & 13th coolest October since 1901.

Daily records taken here at WLFI:

WLFI-TV October 2009

More Coming Soon!