Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Blackberry Winter & the First 90 on the Horizon

May 27th, 2015 at 11:11 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Patchy fog is likely tonight-early tomorrow morning, followed by a nice, largely dry day with sun & scattered clouds & lower humidity.

Only an isolated t’shower is possible south of I-74 with highs of 83-87.

Scattered t’storms are possible Friday (84-87), followed by more widespread rainfall Saturday.

Sunday looks much cooler with 63-69 with lows in the 40s.

It will warm up to 83 by Wednesday with some scattered storms.

We could see our first 90 of the year for parts of the area by later next week.


Updates

May 27th, 2015 at 3:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

6:20 p.m.

Storms are exiting area.  Only a few are left in Miami/Howard & one in far southeastern Montgomery.

The dew points will drop this evening & it will be pleasantly cool tonight with calm winds, patchy fog & lows at 55-60.

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5:20 p.m.

Clinton County storm weakening after very briefly pulsing up to severe tendency.

100% potential of hail of pea size near Beard.  20% potential of marble hail.

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5:01 p.m.

Hail threat is increasing in northwestern Clinton County.  Hail is likely with 60% chance of the hail becoming severe with size of up to quarters or a bit larger mixed with smaller stones northwest of Frankfort.  Warning may be issued shortly if these hail signatures continue to show.

Winds may gust to 35 mph.

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4:50 p.m.

Once these t’storms pass, we should enjoy a nice, less humid evening with west-northwest breezes.

The storms are a bit gusty with gusts of up to 35 mph, but just heavy rainfall producers & that is it right now.  Isolated severe threat remains for the next couple hours along & east of a Grissom ARB to Burlington to Monroe to Crawfordsville line.

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4:15 p.m.

Winds may gust to 35 mph at Rossville & up to 43 mph around Waynetown with torrential rainfall/thunder & lightning.

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4 p.m.

Storm rapidly intensifying on south side of Lafayette.  It has an 80% chance of at least pea hail.  Gust may reach 47 mph right in the most intense core of that storm, but mainly 30-40 mph.

Central Fountain County storm may gust to 40 mph.

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3:40 p.m.

Scattered showers/storms are found in the area.

Isolated severe threat continues to exist Rochester to Monticello to Pine Village & southeastward.

Main isolated threat is wind with secondary threat as hail.

90% potential of at least pea hail south of Veedersburg at the moment.

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1:24 P.M. Update

May 27th, 2015 at 1:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Expanded isolated severe threat a hair to cover areas as far north as Rochester, Logansport, Monticello & Pine Village this afternoon, rather than Peru to Lafayette to Covington.

Main isolated severe threat is wind, then hail.

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Any scattered t’storms will fade this evening, followed by clearing & patchy fog/low clouds overnight with pleasant lows of 55-60.

Only an isolated t’storm or two is possible in the southern areas tomorrow (along & south of I-74) with mainly just sun with some scattered cumulus clouds.  Dew points will drop to the 50-55 range in the north, but may still be 60-64 in the far south.  highs of 83-87 look good, with southeast winds at 10-20 mph.


Updates

May 26th, 2015 at 2:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

4:30 p.m.

It is just spotty showers/storms from here on out this evening.  What is left of the broken line is now moving into Fulton & Cass Carroll counties.

These hit or miss showers/storms will be with us into the evening, before diminishing.

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4 p.m.

What is left of this broken line produced a very brief downpour at the station with a gust to 28 mph.

Now, sun & cumulus behind it area leading to nice conditions!  However, additional spotty showers/storms are in Illinois & will pass this evening with 30-35% coverage.

As for the broken line, with the eastern Indiana/western Ohio line becoming the main one, this one is a mere line of scattered showers/t’storms & not gusty or severe.

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3:20 p.m.

Line is weakening quite a bit in air stablized by rain, also, new storms are firing & consolidating into a line slowly along I-69 east of the viewing area.  That is becoming the main line.

Here, gusty line of showers/t’showers will continue to work through Jasper, Pulaski, White, Tippecanoe counties with some gusts to 35 mph.

Fowler measured a gust to 38 mph.

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2:41 p.m.

Danville, Illinois gusted to 43 mph when this line went through.  Pine Village measured gust to 43 mph, as well.  Private weather station west of Pence, has sustained winds of 35 mph briefly.

Looks like Morocco just gusted to 41 mph, as did Kankakee & Kentland.

Severe T’Storm Watch for Miami/Howard/Tipton goes until 10 p.m., but watch for them will be dropped before then.  The much deeper, most intense convection will be east of here.

Our line is shallow & pretty low-topped with not much lightning at all, but it is still gusty, nonetheless with isolated severe threat.

We will watch.  I am highly-doubtful of any strengthening, given stablizing effects of showers in front of it.

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2:30 p.m.

Gusts of 40-50 mph are possible in places as this line of storms moves through our western half over the next hour.

Severe T’Storm Watch Miami, Howard & Tipton counties & eastward where it is more unstable with sunshine.

Behind the line, sun/cumulus & spotty showers/t’storms are possible.

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2:12 p.m.

A line of rather low-topped convection is approaching the state line with generally gusts of 35-45 mph with it.  Gusts to near 50 mph are possible between Danville & Bismarck, Illinois.

Few scattered embedded severe storms are possible at any point.  Main threat is wind.  Isolated brief EFo-EF1 tornado is possible.  Hail threat is low.  Parameters show max size of 0.50″.

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12:53 P.M. Update

May 26th, 2015 at 12:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperatures are 76-81 with pockets of sunshine with a lot of low clouds as of 12:53 p.m.  Winds are gusty from the south with dew points in the 60s to 70.

Some showers/t’showers are pivoting up from the south into the viewing area, while a broken line/arc of showers & t’storms is in eastern Illinois, pivoting east & northeastward.

Considerable low clouds/pre-line showers/t’showers will tend to limit a lot of good heating & deep destablization ahead of this line, but given the pockets of 1500 J/kg surface CAPE & the forcing & pretty well-sheared sheared environment, there is support for isolated to a few scattered embedded severe storms in the area with that broken line/arc today.

Main threat is wind, lesser threat is brief EF0-EF1 tornado or small hail to 0.75″  diameter.

Once this arc/broken line of showers/storms passed, lots of sunshine, mixed with cumulus should appear.  A few spotty showers/t’storms may pop in these cumulus bands this evening before any rain threat ends by 11 p.m.

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Late Today-Tonight Outlook

May 26th, 2015 at 8:43 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few embedded severe storms are possible this afternoon-evening in one or more broken lines of storms that pivot through the area after a couple spotty showers this morning.

The main threat is wind.  Some hail is possible.

Threat will end this evening.

Highs today of 78-84 looks good with windy, warm, muggy conditions.

Tonight, rain will exit with lows near 65.


4:18 P.M. Update

May 25th, 2015 at 4:18 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Thank you to all have served & for those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice so we can be free.  When I check on my kids at night & see them sleeping peacefully, I realize who makes that all possible.  Because of all of you military, police, firemen……all of you, they can sleep peacefully & do not have to witness the horrors of some regimes around the world!  You are the ultimate protectors & peace-makers.  For that, I want to take my hat off to you!

Temperatures are running 78-84 over the viewing area as of 4:18 p.m.

After some scattered showers/t’showers this morning & a line of showers & t’storms over the southeastern half of the area this afternoon, we are improving right now.

With subsidence or some sinking air arriving from Illinois, all that is left of that line are a few showers around Fort Wayne & a showers near Mulberry & Rossville.

I cannot rule out a few scattered showers & t’storms this evening, with the best chance in the southeastern half of the viewing area.  These will tend to fade tonight with lows only near 67.

Otherwise, it looks partly to mostly cloudy & windy.  Gusts today have been up to 45 mph.  The highest gust has been measured at Morocco at 45.2 mph, while the highest sustained wind, 31.4 mph, was recorded at Frankfort.

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Memorial Day Outlook

May 25th, 2015 at 8:43 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers/t’showers continue to work through this morning with about 35-40% coverage.

As for today, we may see a lull with dry weather area-wide late morning-noon, followed by scattered afternoon-evening showers & t’storms with around 40% coverage.

Widespread storms & severe weather will occur southern Minnesota to Kansas to Texas.  Widespread flooding is likely Tennessee to Missouri to Texas.

Highs in our area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, will run 80-85 with strong southerly winds.  Winds may gust as high as 45 mph at times this afternoon with sustained winds near 20 mph.

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Scattered showers & t’storms will exit tonight, but more will develop late with lows around 68.  Southerly winds will still be strong at 20-32 mph.

 


Outlook Now-Tuesday

May 24th, 2015 at 11:06 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Warm, muggy regime will settle in now-Tuesday.

Highs today of 80-85 are likely, followed by 80-83 Monday & 77-82 Tuesday.  Lows will be in the 60s.

Showers/t’storm timing is as follows (based on the latest data):

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Fall-Winter El Nino (with Current Positive PDO)….What Does It Mean For Us?

May 23rd, 2015 at 11:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Last year data suggests weak to moderate El Nino, but that failed to really develop.  New models are suggesting strong to very strong El Nino event comparable with 1982-83 or 1997-98 this winter.

One might look at this outlook with a definite skepticism (given last year’s bust), however, El Nino is already now firmly established & pushing moderate strength.  Only four winters since 1975 have matched the current El Nino strength in the Pacific in May-June & they have not weakened or completely stopped like last year.  Two of those four were strong to very strong.  Current temperatures in the Pacific & the current regime are nearly identical to the spring preceding the Super El Nino of 1997-98.

The European model runs continue to put out a major event.

All this said, I think a strong event is pretty probable (+60%).  Will it be very strong or a Super El Nino?  I am much less confident of that.

PDO has been consistently positive (overall warming of northern & eastern Pacific), which has led to California heat & ridge & cooler, wetter conditions for us & Southeast, overall, for the past 1.5 years.

What does this mean for us?

Well, I plugged in the years with El Nino conditions similar to what we have right now in the Pacific overall (around equator & northward) since 1950 to see how the winter unfolded.  Interestingly, all strong/very strong El Ninos showed PDOs similar to now just prior to their development, except spring/summer 1972.

Record rainfall the other day in California for the time of year & flooding rains over the past month from Missouri to Texas to Louisiana all show earmarks of El Nino already.  For Los Angeles to get 0.72″ of rainfall from a storm system in later May is quite rare.

Here are the years similar to what is happening now & what is predicted to transpire with the El Nino.  I took all of these years & all of the data was averaged out to see where anomalies existed December-February:

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This would all equate to very mild winter with below-normal snowfall for us, with normal rainfall.  This would also mean heavy, flooding, drought-denting or busting rainfall for California.