Storm metamorphosis is now taking place as lift rapidly increase & moderate to heavy snow blossoms in central Illinois.  The northern system & southern system are now converging into one system.

Radar at 10:11 p.m…..

New Snowfall Projections:

More Soon…………

The heavier snowband continues to wobble back & forth among model guidance data.

I prefer to just keep everything as is, for now.  If we need to trim, adjust & firm up totals, we’ll do so tonight/tomorrow.

All snow is evaporating for it hits the ground (virga) right now, but light snow is falling in central Illinois from I-57 west. 

The merger between our northern low & southern low has not occurred yet.  That metamorphisis will increase lift area-wide & allow snow to blossom.

After 9 pm, we are fair game for light snow to arrive, with the steadier, substantial snow developing overnight-early Tuesday morning.

Snowfall Projections:

Winter Storm Warning in effect for entire viewing area from tonight-Wednesday.  The reasoning behind it going into Wednesday are the gusty winds lingering through Wednesday morning, despite the snow tapering off.  These winds will create near blizzard conditions Tuesday night-part of Wednesday.

Current timing estimate is light snow after 9 p.m., picking up overnight, lasting all day tomorrow with bursts of heavy snow & increasing winds.  The snow should decrease in intensity & taper off tomorrow night.  Snow will be falling & be on the ground tomorrow morning, so it won’t be a situation where it starts snowing when the kids get to school or anyone is on their way to work (working the day shift).  Night shift folks will have near-blizzard conditions to contend with tomorrow night.  Evening commuters will have horrible conditions with the heavy snow & increasing winds to 30 mph at times.

Forecast looks good as is.  I see any reason to make a single change from the current standpoint.  NEW data will be out later this afternoon & we’ll see what that brings.

Another post will be out in about 1-1.5 hours.

I see no reason to change anything in the forecast.  Everything appears to be right on track.

The snowfall forecast should be all firmed-up by this afternoon-evening.

Refer to former post for the snow forecast.  We’ll see if we need to make any changes this afternoon.

I plan on having another update around midday-1 p.m. after looking at the late morning data.  I have got to get some sleep, as I’ll be up with this winter storm alot for a couple of days!!

Duration & intensity of the snow is important in forecast a snow event, along with many other factors…………

Two big factors are:

1)  Having a deep layer of -12 to -18°C temperatures in the layer of best lift.

2) The lift or Omega near or around 10 -ub/s.  Absolute best lift is above 10 -ub/s.

These 2 support large, fluffy dendrites (flakes).

We have all of these with this system, especially in the northwest.  This means we can get more snow out of the amount of precipitation.

The ratio will not be 10:1, but more like 15:1 or 20:1.  This means not 1″ for every .10″ of liquid, but probably 1.5″ or 2″ for each .10″ of liquid.

Current Snowfall Projections:

What is up with the rough winters since about 2006, 2007??  It is all largely tied to the solar cycle with affect everything from ocean temps to where trough & ridges dominate.  The sun appears to affect El Nino, La Nina & where the warmer/colder waters set up, which has a domino effect around the world!!

Thus, there is too much evidence towards the sun’s output having a major domino effect with our weather trends around the world, including our area.

Notice the correlation between rough winters & the lack of solar output.

Noticed how this winter is resembling the REALLY rough, cold winters of the 1970s??

Central & southern Florida saw snow & sleet back in January.  The last times that all occurred was in the early-mid 1980s, 1989 & 1977.

The last time the Arctic Oscillation was as negative as January 2010 (more negative, the colder for eastern U.S.) was in 1977!

Just get used to rough winters over the next few years, then we will cycle back to mild winters after 2012.

Winter Storm Watch in effect for every county in our viewing area, except White, Pulaski, Cass, Miami & Fulton. 

Still looks like 4-6″ snow  with a band of 6-8″, (possibly even +8″) evolving somewhere near or in our area.  A weak upper northern system with combine with a deepening low over Arkansas & Tennessee.  This merger will combine into one storm, this storm will deepen & that is when the wind will really kick up & the heaviest snow will get going.

There is still uncertainty as to where the heaviest snowband will set up.

Timing is Monday night-all of Tuesday. 

Winds may gust to 35 mph during the snow event.

Only the timing appears to be changing a bit with our next winter storm.  It is slowing down, so we may not see any snow until Monday night & the snow may last well into Tuesday afternoon.

4-6″ is still a good bet with a +6″ band or possibly two +6″ bands evolving with the storm across or near our area.

Gusty northeast, then north/northwest winds up to 35 mph still look likely with the storm. 

With temperatures in the 20s with this storm, the snow looks a bit more powdery, making the blowing & drifting a big, big issue.  The blowing & drifting was bad enough with the relatively wet snow we just experienced.

Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service Indianapolis for Fountain, Tippecanoe, Warren, Carroll, Howard, Tipton & Montgomery counties in our viewing area for late Monday through Tuesday.  The National Weather Service in North Webster & Chicago has not issued the watch for the rest of our counties as of right now.

Significant snow of 4-6″ is possible area-wide.  It appears a band of +6″ will evolve somewhere in/near our area.

Right now, that +6″band appears to be evolving around I-70, or between I-74 & I-70.

THE STORM TRACK MEANS EVERYTHING & THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER/HEAVIEST SNOW BAND(S).

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SNOW, HOWEVER.  ANALYZING THE NUMBERS, MY BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR THE SNOW TO BEGIN MONDAY EVENING, PEAK MONDAY NIGHT & TAPER TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS MAY GUST +30 MPH DURING &/OR AFTER THE SNOW, CREATING BLOWING/DRIFTING & POOR VISIBILITY.