Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

A Year (or Two’s) Worth of Rain In One Day

April 17th, 2015 at 10:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Very interesting on what transpired a few weeks ago:

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/flooding-chile%E2%80%99s-atacama-desert-after-years%E2%80%99-worth-rain-one-day


Areas of Dense Fog Tonight…….Best Day of the Year So Far Tomorrow

April 16th, 2015 at 10:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Areas of dense fog will develop tonight & very low clouds may fill back in over the southeastern part of the viewing area.  Lows in the 40s to around 50 look good.

With a 75-80 Friday with lots of sun & light winds, it will likely be the best day of the year so far!

After 50s & patchy fog tomorrow night, lots of sun & only some increase high/mid p.m. clouds will occur Saturday.  Upper 70s to as high as 81 look likely with south-southwest winds at 10-15 mph.


Some Clearing

April 16th, 2015 at 3:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is still gray in Lafayette, but the green trees & grass look great!  Some clearing is occurring in Newton, Jasper & Benton counties with a few holes in the clouds elsewhere.

The clearing trend shows up well in the current temperature map.

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Latest Outlook

April 16th, 2015 at 2:34 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Two things have changed in this forecast……………

1.  How far north really warm air gets.
2.  Speed of weekend rainfall/storms (much slower)

SO…………..

1.  Low clouds may break/erode later today, but may drift back in with some fog tonight with lows in the 40s & 50s.

2.  Tomorrow will be GREAT!  Light wind, lots of sun & 75-80 with only 50s tomorrow night with patchy fog.

3.  Saturday looks GOOD!  Clouds may be increasing & the wind pick up from the south & southwest at 15-25 mph, but highs of 77-81 look reasonable.

4.  Wave of rain/storms Saturday night-Sunday morning, then BREAK WITH SUN Sunday afternoon with 70s.

5.  Rain/storms possible Sunday evening-night.  SEVERE THREAT is close call.  It looks very likely for Missouri, parts of Iowa & most of Illinois.  We will monitor.

6.  Total rainfall (including this morning’s rain) will run 1-2″ area-wide by Sunday night.  It is not completely out of the question that a few isolated locations may exceed 2″ a bit.

7.  First half of next week will have highs only in the 50s with lots of close & perhaps a couple spotty showers with some frost possible at night.

8.  End of next week will WARM UP NICELY with return of 70s, it appears.


Changes to the Forecast Based On Timing of Rainfall Rounds

April 16th, 2015 at 11:46 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY-TONIGHT…………..

Rainfall has exited & we are getting some sun peeking through the low clouds in places.  The widespread clearing with temperatures surging into the 60s is in parts of central & western Illinois.

Latest data bring more & more breaking of the clouds into early afternoon with the clearing line working from west to east through area 3-5 p.m.  Highs of around 65-70 look good.

The low clouds may tend to fill back in over our southern & eastern counties overnight with some patchy fog area-wide with 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY…………

As for Friday, it looks GREAT with mostly sunny to sunny skies with highs of 74-78 with a light & variable wind.  After 50s Friday night with patchy fog, Saturday is even looking GOOD.  It appears that any rain will hold off until Saturday night with Saturday highs at 76-81.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT……………

It looks as if one wave of rain & t’storms will pass late Saturday night-Sunday morning, then the sun will come out with temperatures surging into the 70s Sunday.

A line of severe t’storms will likely form in Missouri & Iowa & move eastward.  By 6 p.m., it may be in western Illinois.  This will pass over our area Sunday late evening-night.  Severe weather is a good bet parts of Iowa to Missouri to northern Arkansas, northward to Illinois.  It is possible that we may get in on some of this, but it is unclear how much, especially with the airmass stabilizing some after dusk Sunday here.

If you add up the rain we received last night & then what we will get in the second half of the weekend, 1-2″ is likely area-wide.

NEXT WEEK………………

This looks to be followed by highs only in the 50s for part of next week with lows in the 30s.  With a lot of cold air aloft, looks like some mostly cloudy, cool, breezy days with perhaps even a few spotty showers.

We will warm late next week pretty quickly though.

 

 


Showers Moving In

April 15th, 2015 at 10:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After gusts of up to 38 mph today with brush fires & 67-72, we are 55-62 right now.  Showers are now moving into part of the area.

Showers & even a few t’storms are possible tonight-tomorrow morning, followed by a lull with some sun, then a few more showers & t’storms in the afternoon-evening.

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Scattered Showers & a Few Isolated T’Storms On the Way

April 15th, 2015 at 6:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few spotty showers may make it to the ground this evening, but the better potential of scattered showers & perhaps even a few isolated t’storms is overnight.

One wave of rainfall may pass tomorrow, followed by some sun, then a few more showers & t’storms in the afternoon-evening.

Highs of 66-72 look good after lows tonight at 47-54.

We will not have the wind issues after midnight, through tomorrow.


Brush Fire Danger Continues

April 15th, 2015 at 3:53 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is extremely dry today with relative humidity levels as low as 18% as of 3:50 p.m. with east winds gusting over 30 mph.

At WLFI, it is 69 with a dew point of 28 currently, giving us a relative humidity of 22%.

NWS has Red Flag Warning for all areas north of a Pine Village to Brookston to Logansport to Bunker Hill line, meaning brush fire danger is HIGH.

The danger should be pretty high through evening, before ending by midnight.

Winds will remain strong & gusty until about 2 a.m., then they will decrease from 20-35 mph to 15-25, then 10-20 mph with a gradual turn to the east-southeast.

The good news is that this dry air & wind is drying out soils tremendously, allowing farm field work today.


Mushroom Alert!

April 15th, 2015 at 10:08 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I just talked to an individual who found mushrooms in his woods near Stockwell.  They are the blacks right now.  Let the hunting begin!


Outlook to April 26

April 14th, 2015 at 10:51 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After highs today at 64-70, we have dropped to 47-55 as of 11  p.m. with dry air continuing to bleed in at low-levels.

Despite areas of mid-clouds, we will drop to 37-44.

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Surface high to the north & northeast & low to the south will funnel in a strong east wind at 20-35 mph Wednesday after 8 a.m.  Although high/mid clouds will mix with sun, relative humidity levels may drop to 17% with highs of 66-72 & dew points in the 20s & 30s.

This will dry out soils & make them suitable for some field work & also lead to elevated brush fire danger with dry, cured, dormant grasses & amidst leaf litter.

This will be a long-distance fetch of a land breeze that will also be driven down the Allegheny Plateau, resulting in drying/warming, which will help to bring such a bone-dry airmass in at the surface.

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Skies should turn cloudy tomorrow night with east winds decreasing some to 15-25 mph.  It will take a long time to moisten the low-levels, so any precipitation may have a time holding together & making it to the ground through the night.  Lows of 47-54 look good.

Looks like we’ll get rain to the surface by Thursday morning with an initial wave of scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder & lightning.  After some lulling, a few more showers & perhaps t’storms may pass at times Thursday afternoon.  Some sun will appear at times with winds turning southeast, then south at 10 mph as front moves northward into the area.  Highs of 68-75 are likely.

Front will likely move back southward through area Thursday night with lows of 48-56 with southerly winds turning northeast at 5-10 mph with some scattered showers & a few t’storms.

Friday, it appears front may surge back north into part of the area with highs of 70-77 with some scattered showers & t’storms with southeast, then south winds at 15-25 mph.

As for the weekend, the heart of the upper-level system & the surface cold front look to pass Saturday-Saturday with numerous showers & perhaps some t’storms.  Some rain may linger into part of Sunday.

64-67 looks good for Saturday with 59-64 Sunday.

There is some data that even wants to slow the upper low down & keep rain potential even into Monday, but I am not warming up to that & currently prefer the more progressive solution.  We will monitor.

After this, it looks rather cool with several daily highs in the 50s to around 60 with lows in the 30s with some frost next week, before it warms up with a period of dry weather.

It looks dry next Monday-Tuesday through Sunday, April 26, at the moment.  After that cold snap with 30s, 80 could arrive by April 26.  This will be a situation well-suited for field work, so not to fear, the drier soils & good field days are ahead, area farmers!

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