Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Outlook to November 5 & Signs of Seasonal Change

October 19th, 2014 at 8:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There is really no active weather on the way now-October 30.  There is a weak clipper late tonight/tomorrow & Thursday night/Friday with a couple of spotty showers & that is it.  There may be another clipper around the 29th.  Next good potential of more widespread rainfall is either at end of Halloween or in early November, followed by the first widespread freeze of the year.

In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures will dominate to the first of November.  After 34 this morning, this week will feature highs largely in the 60s with a couple of days in the upper 50s to around 60.

Friday will begin very nice warm-up with 62-68 then.  It is possible that we may reach 70 in parts of the area Saturday (66-71) & 68-75 in some next Sunday.  Overnight lows will be cool (still a couple nights this week with patchy frost at 35-38, regardless of relatively mild days), but with sun & warmth, soils will dry nicely for area farmers.

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Behavioral changes are evident in our bird life in response to shortening day length & approach of winter.  Some species only seen in fall & winter are returning now.

I saw the first “snowbirds” today (Dark-eyed Juncos).  They breed up north & migrate southward to winter in our area.  You will find them scratching around your bird feeders, in leaf litter around your house to around your lawn & woodland edges in fall & winter.  They like millet scattered on the ground at a feeder.

They have a distinctive of twittering call & expose the white on their tails when flushed.

This is the first time I have heard red-winged blackbirds in full call since July.  It is the first time I have seen them congregate in flocks since spring.  They do this as they make movements in the fall.  Most of our head south, residing in massive flocks in the marshes & agricultural fields of the southern U.S.

I noticed about a dozen Pied-billed Grebes at the lake in our neighborhood today.  This is a sign of the change to colder weather.  They usually stay in marshes with abundant vegetation & are seldom seen in spring & summer.  In the fall, they turn from the gray breeding plumage to more brown & tend to go to more open water areas & seem to congregate in pairs or groups of 3-5.  These small groups may make up one of several groups on a lake.

I observed about 6-8 Ruddy Ducks (most of them were females) on our lake in the neighborhood today.  Thing is Ruddy Duck do not breed here & don’t even winter here.  Why were they here?  They were passing through from their breeding grounds (prairie potholes of the Plains & mountain/basin lakes/ponds of the Rockies) to the marshes of the southern U.S.

The individuals that I saw today could have been from the Dakotas/Manitoba/Alberta on their way to the Carolinas or perhaps the oxbow lakes of the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.

I also spotted several buffleheads on the lake.  They are largely a Canadian species where they next around ponds/lakes of northern spruce forests with aspen & birch from Alaska & the Yukon to Ontario & Quebec.  They are only known to breed in the U.S. in northeast Minnesota, northeastern Washington & northern Idaho & in high-elevation lakes with fir & spruce in a few areas in the Rockies.

They winter in our area on ponds & lakes.  I frequently see flocks at Celery Bog in fall & winter.

These are the first of the season.

Lesser Scaups were noted.  I see these at the Bog & at our neighborhood lake in the fall.  They do not spend winter here, but only a brief fall period on their migration from Canada, Alaska & the northern Rockies/northern Plains to the southern U.S., Mississippi Valley to Mexico & the Caribbean.

This bird is also found natively in Eurasia.

 

 

 

 

 


Low Temperatures This Morning

October 19th, 2014 at 10:02 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Low temperatures this morning from AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet & WLFI stations:

DMA Map II


4:15 P.M. Update

October 18th, 2014 at 4:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Any showers or sprinkly rains are south & east of a Peru to Logansport to Monticello to Attica line.  These will exit over the next 1-1.5 hours.

Some clearing is already taking place near Chicago & even into our far northwestern areas.

With the clearing, damp ground & calm winds, not only is frost likely, but some patchy dense fog has the potential to develop.  Lows of 32-35 still seem reasonable.

It is 48 at the station as of 4:16 p.m. after a high of 53 for today.

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Raw, Gloomy, Damp Saturday

October 18th, 2014 at 1:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Drizzle/sprinkles/few showers will transition to a wave of scattered showers this afternoon.  High will remain cool with breezy conditions & temperatures falling into the upper 40s to around 50.

Frost is likely tonight.  32 is possible in the north with 33 Lafayette & 34-35 south.  Clouds hanging on would prevent this, as would wind, but data continue to point to clearing trend with diminishing winds.

Sun & 55-60 is likely tomorrow.

A few showers early in the week & perhaps late in the week will be light & scattered.  After seasonable upper 50s to 60s & lows in the 30s to 40s, mid to upper 60s may arrive for Friday.


Outlook to Early November

October 17th, 2014 at 10:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A windy, cool, mostly cloudy Saturday is ahead with a few spotty sprinkles/patches of drizzle/light showers.  Northwest winds may gust to 34 mph at times.

Winds will calm tomorrow evening & with clearing skies, frost still looks likely.

This will beat a lot of the low temperatures for coldest so far this evening.

With lots of sun, Sunday looks warmer with less wind.

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Next week will begin a drier pattern, except for a few spotty showers Monday to perhaps Tuesday & perhaps a few Friday.  Highs will run near normal to a bit above normal (normal for next week is around 60-61 with normal lows around 38).

The next widespread rain is still shaping up for near Halloween to early November.  A widespread killing freeze is likely in early November.

 


The October 17, 1996 Severe Weather

October 17th, 2014 at 3:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 17, 1996 Squall Line with Embedded Supercells

A QLCS with three embedded supercells produced  several intense microbursts & macrobursts.  10 homes were heavily damaged near Newport.  5 homes were damaged near New Market & Mace in Montgomery County.  One homes was moved 1/2 foot off its foundation &  structural damage occurred to a factory.  Wind damage was reported in Crawfordsville to near Manson in Clinton County from a narrow swath of straight-line winds north of the microburst & macroburst.

A macroburst occurred near Logansport & injured 3 people via flying debris driven by an estimated 90 mph wind gust.  Several homes & businesses were damaged in Logansport & the roof was blown off a church.  The worst damage was around the church.  There, wind gust likely peaked at around 95 mph.  It would take such a gust to totally remove the roof from the church.

No hail or tornadoes were produced.

A even more widespread, significant severe outbreak occurred just 12 days later on October 29, 1996.

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Breezy to Windy Friday…………Frost Saturday Night-Sunday Morning

October 17th, 2014 at 1:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With increasing clouds, our front is beginning to push through with wind shift from southwest to west & west-northwest.

Temperatures are running 63-68 as of 1:53 p.m.

Winds are gusting as high as 31 mph in the viewing area.

Temperatures will begin to fall from northwest to southeast across the area this evening.  During the Frenzy, we will drop from 56 to 51, so it will be a cool one, especially with that brisk west-northwest wind.

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So far this year, we have been as low as 33 weather stations around the area.

You can see how the numbers compare with normal first occurrences of patchy frost, freeze & killing freeze.

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Projected low temperatures for Saturday night-early Sunday morning:

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I Love This Pic!

October 17th, 2014 at 11:23 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Check out this pic from Rob Jakes of Linden.  He said the squirrels have been busy!  They have been taking nuts from nearby walnut & storing them underneath the hood of this truck!  Great pic!

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It is warmer today than yesterday.  Temperatures are running 59-64 as of 11:37 a.m.

High clouds are increasing & winds are gusty with approach of dry surface cold front.

DMA Map II


Two More Tornadoes Confirmed South/Southwest of Our Area

October 16th, 2014 at 8:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Two additional tornadoes have been confirmed in the Tuesday evening severe weather outbreak southwest of our area.  An EF1 was confirmed in southwestern Indiana, northwest of Evansville, while another EF1 was confirmed in southern Illinois near Mt. Vernon.

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We have had holes in the clouds off & on all day, but we may get rid of most of the clouds by morning with lows tonight around 50.

Frost is possible Saturday night-Sunday morning with lows of 32-36.

Our lowest temperature so far this fall at the stations is 36.  We may drop lower than that with frost Saturday night-Sunday morning with 34.

This will occur after increasing clouds, breezy to windy conditions & 66-72 for highs tomorrow in the area.

With passing front, temperature may fall some late in the afternoon with 50s & brisk winds around Friday Night Frenzy time.  With skies becoming cloudy, I cannot rule out a few sprinkles/light shower tomorrow night.

Lots of clouds to even solid overcast will keep Saturday cool (sprinkle/brief light shower possible) & with brisk winds, the 53-58 will feel quite cool.  This will be followed by the frost (as previously mentioned above).

After sun & 57-63 Sunday, we will only drop to 43-48 Sunday night-Monday morning with clipper & a few scattered showers (with breezy conditions) Monday (with 60s).

No widespread killing freeze seen in forecast at this point until early November with overall drier & pretty mild pattern.


The October 1840 Newton County Tornado

October 16th, 2014 at 12:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

From History of Newton & Jasper County:

In the year 1840, in the month of October, on the southern slope of the Eaglenest Ridge near the north shore of the Iroquois River….

……Crossing the river at the sandy crossing, where a cloud of ducks arose from the water, with their deadening roar of winds and their quack, quack, quack, he took a southeasterly direction through the woods, keeping his course by the sun with its ducky, red face belled by the smoke of Indian summer. There was no path to follow but he knew the general direction he wished to go; therefore he had but little trouble in shaping his course. Bees still swarmed out in search of the few flower that had not been nipped by the early frost of autumn. Frogs croaked, the mocking birds still said their morning carols from the tops of the tallest trees, and the robin red-breasts hopped about in quest of worms. Wild geese, cranes and brants passed constantly overhead or waded and paddled in the ponds at will. The geese darted their heads low in the water in quest of snails, and bus while their feet paddle the thin water to maintain their equilibrium.

The sun rose clear, but was soon obscured by scudding clouds, which betokened rain. A few old Indians, including the father of the unfortunate boy were still feeling fort the body with poles but most of the band were either preparing or partaking of the morning meal, which consisted of hominy, corn cakes and various wild meats.

The sky had become more and more threatening during the time passed in the hut, the wind was rising. The Indiana stepped to note the aspect of the weather. “Big storm”, he said, as he moved quietly outside and ran quickly to each tent, informing the inmates of the impending storm, which was now fast breaking upon them. In a few minutes her returned and began making things secure by fastening the corner of the skins with thongs of deer-hide and bracing the tent with extra pole braces. A great yellow bank of curvetting cloud came rolling down the heavens, which seemed to be followed and pushed ahead by an uneasy power which roared and bellowed like ten thousand maddened bulls. It was something terrific. Ben described it as being equal to a tropical tornado, a real Caribbean cyclone and an African hurricane combined. The trees bowed their tops to the earth in humble subjection to the powers that be, and many were snapped in twain with reports like heavy artillery. Wilder and wilder raged the tempest. The driving rain came down in blinding sheets. A flood of water rushed through the wigwam a foot deep.

Ben and the Indian were using their utmost endeavors to hold braces and thus keep the tent from going away with the blast. The maid sprang up and raised the sick woman to a sitting posture so that her head might be out of the water; but the old crone still sat in the water almost to her waist, crooning sad strains of some sorrow song as she swayed her body back and forth without paying the slightest attention to the warring of the elements. The lodge poles were bent like reeds in the marsh and the rain dashed through the holes and crevices in the skins in great bucketfuls. Vivid flashes of zigzag and sheet lightning almost blinded them, and peal upon peal of thunder seemed to rend the heavens in a million seams, whereby the pent up waters dashed and fell on the earth in oceans of waterspouts. One could not have stood on his feet a second out in the storm.

In the course of half an hour, which seemed almost an age to those who had to stem the storm, the wind ceased, and this cloudy cauldron of wind, water and electricity, each struggling for the masterly, passed away as quickly as it had come The trees lifted their heads, except those whose hearts had been broken, and the water dripped from their leaves and branches. The wind ceased, the sun burst forth from behind a cloud, and nature seemed to smile upon the wreck and desolation everywhere visible. Broad streams, rivulets and rills were still gurgling down the sloping woodland and over the river band into the march lake, with a roar like a Liliputian cataract.

Everything and everybody was drenched; not a dry thread could be found in the whole village. Three of the wigwams had been blown down, two papooses were drowned in the flood, and one was killed by a falling tent pole. Pools were everywhere, and in the level oak openings to the southwest great ponds and even lakes spread out like mammoth mirrors in the sunshine. The whole river marsh was one big lake as far at the eye could reach in the blue vista to the southeast.

After considerable difficulty a fire was lighted and, other borrowing from it, soon each lodge possessed a blasé to dry out the contents.

Bird-eye made his squaw as comfortable as could be expected under the circumstances, which were bad enough at best.

At this juncture, a general shout proclaimed the approach of the search party who had followed the trail of the dauntless rider.

This hero of the day had been found much battered, but not dead.