Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Update On Deep System with Strong Winds

November 23rd, 2014 at 12:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some scattered showers are moving in now, but it looks like widespread rainfall 3 p.m. & onward with perhaps even an isolated t’storm or two.

It is another mild after the seemingly being in the depths of winter only a couple of days ago!

DMA Map II

After solid rainfall, we may get a break 1 a.m. to 5 a.m., followed by the squally rain band with a few t’storms on the actual cold front.

We will likely see our high FOR MONDAY around 5 a.m. at 55-60.

The surface low will rapidly strengthen as it pivots through central Illinois & may be as low as 984 mb around Chicago by morning (980 mb by central Michigan).  In this strengthening process & passage of strong cold front, winds will dramatically increase……..& I would be surprised to see a couple isolated 50-52 mph gusts make it to the ground with the squally band given the forcing/dynamics & 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE & up to 400 J/kg of MUCAPE.  Low-level winds at 2500′ & 5000′ will be running 50 mph or more.

Looks like time frame of STRONGEST gradient winds may run between 8 a.m. & 3 p.m. with sustained winds at 20-30 mph & gusts of 45-50 mph.  This may lead to a few local power outages & blow your trash cans into the street.

Scattered showers are likely Monday & as we fall into the 30s after noon, the rain showers will likely mix & change to snow showers (wind-driven snow showers at that!).

If there is any accumulation, it would be less than 1″.

Rainfall will total 1-2″ area-wide.

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Still looks like a Thanksgiving clipper.  This clipper looks to pass Wednesday night-Thursday with snow showers.  1″ or less of accumulation is likely with temperatures dropping to the 20s Thursday after highs in the 30s & 40s Tuesday-Wednesday.

The start of December still looks fairly mild with quite a few 40s days.

 

 


1:15 A.M. Forecast Update

November 23rd, 2014 at 1:17 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-MONDAY…………

After tonight’s rainfall, Sunday actually looks overall dry until 3 p.m. & onward.  At that point, it appears more widespread rainfall & a few t’storms will arrive.  Highs will run near 56 with mostly cloudy skies & strong south winds.

A bit of a break is possible in the rainfall between 1 a.m. & 5 a.m. with strong south winds to 32 mph.  Temperatures may rise to as high as 60.

The actual front may pass around 5 a.m. with a squally, gusty rain band with a few t’storms.  It is still not out of the question to see it put out a few severe gusts southern Indiana to Kentucky with a much bigger severe risk in the southern U.S.  Here, gusts of 45 mph are possible with it.

Winds may gust to 45 mph behind the front (I am toying with the notion of some gusts to 50 mph, but no quite ready to forecast that yet).  These gusts may last until noon with a few lingering showers that may mix with/change to some snow as temperatures tank to near 36 by late morning.

A total of 1-2″ of rainfall still seems reasonable between the Friday night ice/rainfall to Monday.

The remainder of the day looks to feature gusts to 35 mph with mostly cloudy skies & temperatures near 40 with a few sprinkles/flurries & light rain/snow showers.

TUESDAY-THANKSGIVING…………..

Tuesday-Wednesday look tranquil with 30s to lower 40s, but clipper will pass Thanksgiving with 1″ or less of snowfall with gusty northwest winds & temperatures falling into the 20s after 30s early.

LOOKING OUT TO DECEMBER 9…………..THOUGHTS BEYOND………..

AT THIS POINT, there are no major cold waves seen to December 6, with a lot of seasonable weather with 40s.  Outlying data suggests postive NAO/AO & above normal temperatures & rainfall December 7-9 with 50s & 60s, but that is a ways out.  There is a trend noted there, however.  SHOULD this happen, my analog data tells me in such a regime, colder, snowy weather may then affect the second half of December.


7 to 55 In 32 Hours

November 22nd, 2014 at 3:44 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This warmer air has raced in much quicker than anticipated & we sit at 55 as of 3:50 p.m.!

This, after 7 yesterday morning & a high yesterday of only 33!

There are spotty showers around now & some more widespread showers & even a few t’storms are possible this evening-tonight.

DMA Map II1


1-2″ of Rainfall Likely by Monday Morning

November 22nd, 2014 at 9:59 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Brief glazing of ice overnight has long melted at West Lafayette & it is melting in the north, too, as temperatures rise well-above freezing area-wide.

Scattered showers will be the weather story today-tonight, with perhaps even a couple isolated t’storms.  Temperatures will run 47-54 from north to south today with 55-60 tomorrow-tomorrow night as winds increase to gusts of 30-40 mph.

There may be a lull in any rainfall Sunday morning-early afternoon, but widespread rainfall & a few t’storms will overspread the area Sunday late afternoon-evening to the night.  Winds will be gusty as surface low strengthens to 984 mb near Chicago by evening.

Cold front will pass about 3 a.m. with squally rain band, perhaps an isolated t’storm, as surface low pressure drops to 982 mb over Lake Michigan.  Winds may gust to 45 mph just behind the front as temperature drop from 55-60 to the 40s quickly.

A spoke of showers may pivot in Monday morning & a few spotty showers/sprinkles are possible Monday afternoon with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies & strong northwest winds.  The 45 mph gusts will be confined Monday morning-noon, but 30-35 mph gusts are still possible in the afternoon.  Temperatures look to run near 43 in the morning, then fall to 38 by late afternoon.

The GFS model actually has the low drop to 974 mb surface pressure in Michigan!  Regardless, this will be a strong, gusty system.

A total of 1-2″ of rainfall is likely area-wide by Monday.

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Tuesday-Wednesday look tranquil with 30s to near 40, but Thanksgiving clipper may bring 1″ or less of snowfall with strong winds to 40 mph & plummeting temperatures.  In fact, it appears, we will drop into the 20s by Thanksgiving afternoon & highs Black Friday will only run 25-30 with 10-15 in the morning.


Strong Storm System This Weekend-Monday………Outlook to December 6

November 21st, 2014 at 3:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING……………

Areas of light freezing rain & a bit of sleet are possible after midnight, before changing to all liquid rainfall by mid-morning Saturday across the entire viewing area.

The freezing line will move northward with time, so areas north of U.S. 24 will be in the iciness longer than areas south of it.  The duration will be much shorter as you move southward in the viewing area.

Light ice accumulation is possible, especially in our north with 0.01-0.07″ of precipitation likely.

Temperatures will rise from 23-27 to 29-33 by Saturday 6 a.m. with strong south-southeast winds.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON………….

Scattered rain showers are likely Saturday & Saturday night (isolated t’storm or two cannot be ruled out) with highs rising to 41-47 by afternoon & temperatures steady, then rising to 45-52 by Sunday morning.

A break in the showers is likely Sunday morning-early afternoon with strong south winds to 35 mph & highs surging into the 50s.

SUNDAY MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING…………..

Widespread, significant rainfall with embedded t’storms will move in from the south & southwest Sunday afternoon-night with strong south winds to 40 mph at times & temperatures in the 50s.  There may be a brief break in the rainfall Sunday night between 12 a.m. & 3 a.m. with temperatures in the 50s (60 possible in far south) with strong southwest winds to 40 mph.

Near 3 a.m., surface cold front will race through as strong surface low pivots over the Chicago area (data suggests surface pressure around 984 mb at this point).  This may have a gusty, squally rain band/line with a few t’storms.  Winds will then go quickly to northwest with gusts of up to 45 mph to early Monday morning with a few lingering showers around.

Our high for Monday will be around 3 a.m. in the 50s to perhaps 60 in the south.

MONDAY…………….

Monday looks mostly cloudy (clearing possible late) with gust to 45 mph early from the northwest, followed by west winds at 15-30 mph for the afternoon.  Temperatures will drop to near 41 in the morning, then level off near 42 in the afternoon.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY…………….

Tuesday & Wednesday look bright & uneventful with less wind as surface high pressure moves over area.  Highs in the 30s to around 40 & lows in the 20s are likely.

THANKSGIVING-BLACK FRIDAY……………

Looks like a clipper near Thanksgiving with some snow showers & strong, gusty winds to 35 mph.  At the moment, accumulation looks to be 1″ or less.  Looks like a day of falling temperatures on Thanksgiving with only around 28 by afternoon.

Highs on Black Friday look to run in the lower 30s.

NOVEMBER 28-30……………

This time looks tranquil with sun & temperatures warming towards the 40s as potentially multiple systems dive into California with welcome rainfall.

DECEMBER 1-2……………

Still looks like rain in early December with 40s with track of system from Kansas to Missouri.

DECEMBER 3-6………..

RIGHT NOW, looks like a lot of surface high pressure December 3-6 with tranquil weather of 40s.  This is a long way out, so stay tuned.  It doesn’t look too cold, nor overly warm.


Latest Information On Weekend System

November 21st, 2014 at 12:35 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It still looks like a gusty, strong system this weekend.

It will turn cloudy tomorrow night with freezing rain/sleet showers moving in after midnight.  These may put down a thin layer of ice, before melting Saturday mid-morning with temperatures rising above freezing.

Scattered showers, perhaps even a couple of t’storms are possible Saturday as highs rise to 45 by late in the day.

After a break for a while Saturday night, a wave of showers & a few t’storms will pass for part of Saturday night.  A break is possible with some dry weather weather Sunday morning.

This will be followed by widespread rainfall & some t’storms Sunday afternoon as winds increase with gusts to 40 mph from the south & southeast with highs in the 50s.

Rain & strong winds to 40 mph are likely Sunday nightwith even a few t’storms with 50s, before the front passes near 2 a.m.  At that point, temperature will fall quickly into the 40-42 range.

Rainfall will end Monday with mostly cloudy skies & temperatures in the 40s.  However, west winds may gust to 45 mph early, then 35 mph in the afternoon.

1-2″ of rainfall is likely from this system.


Outlook to December 2

November 20th, 2014 at 8:48 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY-SATURDAY MORNING…………….

Today-Tonight:

Today looks mostly sunny, but windy & cold with highs only near 28.  West winds will run 15-35 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight, wind will go calm & with clear skies & some crusty snow pack over a chunk of the area, lows near 6 are likely.

Tomorrow:

Tomorrow, high/mid clouds will begin to increase with southeast winds increasing to 10-15 mph & highs near 30.

Tomorrow Night-Saturday Morning:

We may drop to 26 by 9 p.m. tomorrow night, but then rise to 31 by 5 a.m. as skies go cloudy.  However, before we rise above freezing, some scattered freezing rain & sleet showers are possible after 2 a.m.  The freezing line will work northward through the viewing area & be to Winamac & Rochester by 8 a.m.  Any precipitation looks light (trace-0.04″), but still watch for slick areas on roads.  Even a thing glaze will create hazardous driving conditions.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY AFTERNOON…………….

Saturday Afternoon-Night:

As for Saturday midday-afternoon, a scattering of rain showers are possible with cloudy skies.  South winds at 10-20 mph will push temperature into the mid 40s by evening.  It would likely be higher, if not for the melting of up to 7″ of snowfall in western Kentucky.   Scattered rain showers & even a few t’storms are possible Saturday evening-night.

Sunday-Sunday Night-Monday:

Our STRONG storm system will begin to really affect us Sunday.  Bands of widespread rainfall with a few embedded t’storms will pivot through our area with strong southeast to south winds gusting to 40 mph.  However, temperatures will rise into the 50s.

Sunday evening, around 8 p.m., models shows a surface low at around 982 mb near Chicago southwest winds here to 40 mph & perhaps a broken, low-topped squall line racing northeastward along strong surface cold front knifing through eastern Illinois & southwestern Indiana.

Although severe weather event is likely Texas to the Carolinas (some tornadoes, too), closer to the strong surface low in Illinois, it does look like up to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE will arise in Kentucky & up to 400 J/kg perhaps in southwestern Indiana.  This may bring sporadic severe gusts to that area.  Here, looks like a gusty, squally rain band.

A total of 1-2″ of rainfall is possible over our area, much of it falling Sunday.

As low reaches 980 mb near Grand Rapids, Michigan by Sunday night, west winds may gust to 45 mph in our area with scattered showers pivoting around the strong storm system. Wind Advisories/High Wind Warnings are possible from Wisconsin to Illinois & Indiana (better chance of High Wind Warnings northwest of our area).

Our high temperature for Monday will likely occur near 1 a.m. in the mid to upper 50s.  We will be down to 40 by Monday morning stay in the lower 40s all day with a howling west/southwest wind to 45 mph with any showers exiting & some of the low clouds breaking as potent, tightly-wound low rapidly pivots into western Ontario.

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MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT……………

Monday Night-Tuesday:

After 25-30 Monday night, near 40 will suffice for Tuesday with partly cloudy skies, followed by 20s Tuesday night.

It still looks windy through Tuesday with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday Evening-Wednesday:

The wind may back off Tuesday evening, then crank right back up for Tuesday night-Wednesday as yet another strong cold front works through.  Gusts may reach 35 mph from the west, then northwest.  Front looks dry at the moment.

Highs in the 30s to 40 seem reasonable for Wednesday with lows in the 20s.

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THANKSGIVING-BLACK FRIDAY……………..

Thanksgiving:

It appears that Thanksgiving could be a weather transition day for us.  We may start out with some sun & south winds at 10-15 mph with highs perhaps to the 40s.  However, there are signs of a gusty clipper.

It may be a situation where we turn quickly cloudy late morning-midday with southwest winds to 30 mph, then front blasts through with falling temperatures into the 20s by evening with northwest winds to 40 mph & the development of snow showers.

It is not out of the question that 1″ or less may accumulate in the afternoon-evening.

KEEP in mind that these clippers are finicky in timing & strength & it is often hard for models to keep up with them.  This is the latest trend, so stay tuned.

Black Friday:

Should this happen, we could be down to 13 with flurries on Black Friday morning & northwest winds to 40 mph (wind chills below zero).

At the moment, Black Friday looks like highs in the 20s to around 30 with northwest winds to 32 mph with partly cloudy skies.

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NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 1……………

November 29-30:

There is a strong, water-logged system progged to approach California at this point, which would tend to force a trough in the West & more ridging (warmer weather) in the eastern U.S.  This is very, very welcome for California & may cut this consistently cold pattern for a bit with us.

Looks like the milder weather will arrive in early December.  We shall see!  This has been a pretty persistent pattern of cold, but hopefully the models are on to something here.

Beyond that, the current forecast pattern is very blurry at best.

Looks colder & dry with near 10 on the morning of November 29 with near 30 in the afternoon, then 30s on the 30th.

December 1-2:

Latest data points to mid 40s & southwest winds to 35 mph with sun, then 50s & showers developing on December 2.  Southwest winds of up to 30 mph are possible on the 2nd.


Coldest, Snowiest Winter On Record?

November 20th, 2014 at 12:50 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Jim had a great question……what is the coldest winter on record?

At West Lafayette, the coldest winter since 1879 was the 1884-85 winter, followed by the 1977-78, winter with mean temp around 17 degrees.  1976-77 winter is third & 1962-63 winter is fourth.  The 2013-14 winter made it into the top five in fifth place.

1884-85 was also the snowiest winter on record with 66.5″ of snowfall.

Here, dry, windy, cold weather with sun will dominate Thursday with highs only at 25-30 with west winds to 35, perhaps 40 mph.  Lows of 6-10 are likely Thursday night.

 

 

 


7th Coldest November Since 1879 (So Far)

November 19th, 2014 at 5:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is currently the 7th coldest November on record at West Lafayette:

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More Snow Showers/Flurries & Strong Winds

November 19th, 2014 at 3:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This morning’s snowfall (which melted very quickly):

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One wave of snow showers has passed, followed by sun & 34, now second wave of flurries/snow showers is approaching with temperatures falling to 30.  Windy are gusty to 40 mph & have turned more westerly & northwesterly, compared to the southerly & southwesterly winds of earlier.

Any accumulation will be less than 1″.

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