Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Updates

April 22nd, 2014 at 4:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

10:45 p.m. Update

A severe weather outbreak occurred in our area late on April 21.  Clean-up was in full swing on April 22.  Morocco was hardest hit with F4 tornado.  10 people were killed & 77 people injured in the town.  2 more people were killed east of Morocco.  20 farmsteads were completely destroyed with heavy damage in the town.

Damage was reported at $500,000 in Morocco.  Inflation figured for 2014, that would be over $12 million dollars today!

This violent tornado & HP supercell originated along the Mississippi River near Keokuk, Illinois.  Current evidence points toward one single significant tornado track with major damage from northeast of Bloomington, Illinois to east of Morocco from this supercell. 

In the west-central Illinois town of Bushnell, 30 were killed & 100 injured by a significant tornado from this storm early in its life cycle.  Tornado that would hit Morocco produced tornado at Chatsworth, Illinois, 40 miles northeast of Bloomington with damage there, but no deaths.

There was another tornado track that paralelled this one about 30 miles to the north.  Odell & Dwight, Illinois were heavily damaged with several people injured & killed.

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There were other tornado tracks in Illinois, but focus on this map is on the violent, signficant supercell long-track tornadoes

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After 54-63 today, we will drop to 30-33 tonight with frost.  With gradual increase in cirrus, highs of 57-65 look good tomorrow.  Cirrus will really thicken & lower to altostratus Wednesday evening as warm front approaches area & passes through tomorrow night.

Forecast remains unchanged, really.  See previous forecast below.

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5:40 p.m. Update

Soils continue to warm for corn planting.  The average bare soil temperature at 4″ depth (at 10 a.m.) yesterday & today was 60 & 56 at West Lafayette.

Temperature are not too bad……………bit cool in our east & northeast, though.

The green-up continues, however, as seen on our Renaissance Cam.

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Frost & a light freeze is likely tonight with calm wind, dry air &  mainly clear skies.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny, though the high thin cirrus clouds will thicken later in the day.  The sun will likely be dimmed & faded quite a bit by early evening as the cirrus thicken & lower ahead of an approaching surface warm front.

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Diffuse dryline/front will approach Thursday with dew points surging to 55-59 ahead of it here (strong south to southwest winds to 35, perhaps 40 mph at times).

Behind it, dew points will drop to the 30s.

This will be focus of a line of showers & t’storms that will pass in the evening.

A few sporadic strong to severe wind gusts are possible at the leading edge of it.  Rainfall doesn’t look too impressive with it at 0.15-0.45″.

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Behind it, warm, dry downsloping winds from the Plains & Desert Southwest will arrive Friday.  With mostly sunny skies, west winds may gust to 40 mph at times with highs near 78 & dew points dropping to the 30s.  The relative humidity may drop as low as 23%.  This will lead to elevated brush fire danger with dry grasses of last year’s growth & abundant rather dry leaf litter in woodlands. 

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Cold front will pass Friday night, leading to cooler Saturday.  Highs of 54-61 are likely with brisk northwest winds to 32 mph.

Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with only scattered fair weather cumulus. 

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System in the Plains looks to move & bit farther northeastward Sunday-Monday, as strong surface high slides towards Pennsylvania.

This will bring periodic rainfall with some embedded t’storms to our biewing area Monday, but the high will prevent the warm air from overspreading area & bringing severe threat.

Temperatures could be around 80 & dew points in the 60s around St. Louis with severe weather potential Monday.  Here, highs of 54-59 look likely with stiff east to southeast wind.

Current projections suggest around 0.50″ of rainfall.  Heavier totals of 1″ or more may fall southwest of our area.  We will watch to make sure those heavier totals do not shift northeastward.

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Update

April 22nd, 2014 at 3:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm system in the Plains is looking to track farther northeast.  This will mean rainfall & some embedded t’storms Monday with highs in the 50s to around 60.  Severe weather is likely from St. Louis to Dallas.

We will be close to the very warm air!  St. Louis will hit 80 or 81 Monday with 70s as far north as south-central Illinois.  However, it looks like that is as far north as the warm front will get, as the system glide to the east & southeast.

As for rainfall, it is looking like a 0.50″ rain with the heavier amounts southwest of here.  It bear watching to make sure the +1″ do not move northeastward.

More on this & Thursday system soon, complete with graphics.


Frost Tonight…………..Less Wind Wednesday

April 22nd, 2014 at 3:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful day!  Our high so far at WLFI has been 60.6, but we will drop to 32 tonight with some frost.

After 57-65 tomorrow, windy, warm weather will arrive Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Southwest winds may gust to 36 mph.

A line of showers/storms is likely after 6 p.m. Thursday evening.  I cannot rule out a few sporadic strong to severe gusts with it, but it appears that the main severe weather threat will stay southwest & west of us.

After windy, sunny & dry conditions Friday with highs in the 70s to around 80, the weekend looks cooler with highs at 56-63 with lows near 32.

50s & 60s will dominate most of next week with most nights in the 30s.


Happy Earth Day……..Nice Day, But Frost Tonight

April 22nd, 2014 at 1:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Happy Earth Day from Hadley!  She & I planted a Flowering Dogwood for the day!

It is a beautiful one (if you don’t mind the wind so much) with nice sunshine!

Frost is likely tonight, however.  Low temperatures will dip to 30-33 with 32 in the Lafayette/West Lafayette area.

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April 21, 1896 Serial Derecho……….Outlook to May 9

April 21st, 2014 at 10:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

 I WILL HAVE MORE GRAPHICS WITH THIS POST SOON…………

A serial derecho with origins in Nebraska & South Dakota produced widespread wind damage & tornadoes from those locations all the way to Pennsylvania.

In our viewing area widespread wind damage occurred during the very early morning hours of April 21.  The greatest concentrations of straight-line winds damage were reported from Tippecanoe, Cass, Montgomery, Fulton & Miami counties.  If there were tornadoes here, they were brief EF0s or low-end EF1s, as there no evidence of any substantial ones, but some of the damage points to brief rain-wrapped, “weaker” ones.

Roofs & chimneys were damaged, trees & electric poles were snapped, fences destroyed & barns blown down.  Also, cellars were reported flooded as tail end of apparent of derecho was paralell to southwest flow aloft & training occurred.  The Purdue University station measured 1.47″ of rainfall.

Strong low-level jet is evident after one of the hottest April days on record in our area on April 20.  Low-level winds were very strong out of the south around Bermuda-type high.  To this point,1896 was the warmest April on record in our area (since 1868).

In fact, highs reached the upper 90s in the Carolinas & lower to mid 90s in the Mid-Atlantic April 20 & 21 with impressive upper ridging in southeastern U.S.

It is likely that this ridge also caused trained of tail-end of that derecho, which led to some of that flash flooding.

Tornadoes of note from this outbreak were at Fremont, Ohio (suburb of Cleveland) when a violent F4 struck.  HOWEVER, it appears this occurred ahead of the main line with a supercell.  Even with strong southwest flow, one would wonder if the lake breeze was an influence or a wind shift from south to southwest well south of the warm front.

The serial derecho struck Indiana & during the morning of April 21 & this supercell & tornado occurred on April 20 at 3 p.m.

Even in image below of a serial derecho from 2011, notice discrete activity in northern Ohio ahead of the main event.

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TODAY……..

Today was nice & warm with the warmest day so far this year in our northern counties!

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT……..

Tonight-Wednesday…….

It is still warm tonight & damp with a true feeling of spring!  It even smells like spring (fresh, damp soil).

We received just a trace of rainfall at WLFI, but our northwestern areas have received anywhere from 0.10 to 0.40″ of rainfall.  Our southern counties received a trace to 0.06″.  Our Rensselaer station measured 0.26″ & the Jasper County Airport recorded 0.20″ as of 9:54 p.m.

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Scattered showers/t’showers will exit tonight.  Rainfall will not be impressive at 0.10″ to perhaps as high as 0.30″.

This will be followed by a windy Tuesday with highs at 57-65.  North winds may gust to 35 mph with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds.  The clouds will be more numerous in our northeastern counties.

Frost/light freezing is likely tomorrow night with lows of 30-33, followed by a mostly sunny & less windy Wednesday.  Highs will run 58-65 with increasing high clouds late in the day as a warm front approaches.

Supercells are likely Minnesota to Texas Wednesday with wind, tornadoes & large hail. 

Thursday-Next Wednesday (Which Is April 30)………..

With highs in the 70s, southwest winds may gust to 35 mph Thursday.

A line of showers/storms likely here Thursday evening with potential of some scattered severe straight-line wind gusts here.

Over the weekend, with our cooler weather, upper low spinning in the Southwest will bring multiple rounds of severe t’storms with wind, hail & tornadoes from Texas to Kansas & Louisiana to perhaps as far north as southern Missouri.

This severe weather threat may extend into the Deep South on next Monday-Tuesday, while rain may get as far north as Indianapolis.

However, we look dry………………….for now……………….with highs in the 50s to around 60 (with partly cloudy skies).  Strong Canadian surface high to our north should protect us from rain, but it will be rather cool.

This is a tight-rope on how far north this rain will get & a close call, stay tuned.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW APRIL 26-MAY 7.

In terms of frost/light freeze…………Saturday night look to drop to 30-33 & Sunday night, 31-36.

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May 1-4……….

Upper trough will bring cold pocket aloft through around May 2-3.  This will tend to bring some scattered instabilityshowers/t’showers with perhaps some graupal.  Highs May 1-4 will run 56-64 with lows in the 30s & 40s, it appears.  Looks like we may even have some patchy frost during this time, especially on the night of May 4.  I think Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass & Miami counties could drop to 31 or 32.  Surface high looks to be right overhead.  The rainfall does not look heavy or significant.

May 5-7…………..

A brief return to 65-70, then seems likely May 6 (61-66 May 5).  In terms of rainfall, there is a shortwave & cool front that may pass May 6, but rainfall with it looks insignificant with 59-65 May 7.

May 7-9………….

A surge of warmth seems likely after the May 9 time frame with 80s.

OVERALL, PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY & COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY MAY.


Outlook to May 9

April 21st, 2014 at 6:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

 I WILL HAVE MORE GRAPHICS WITH THIS POST SOON…………

NOW-SUNDAY NIGHT……..

Tonight-Wednesday…….

Scattered showers/t’showers will exit tonight.  Rainfall will not be impressive at 0.10″ to perhaps as high as 0.30″.

This will be followed by a windy Tuesday with highs at 57-65.  North winds may gust to 35 mph with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds.  The clouds will be more numerous in our northeastern counties.

Frost/light freezing is likely tomorrow night with lows of 30-33, followed by a mostly sunny & less windy Wednesday.  Highs will run 58-65 with increasing high clouds late in the day as a warm front approaches.

Supercells are likely Minnesota to Texas Wednesday with wind, tornadoes & large hail. 

Thursday-Next Wednesday (Which Is April 30)………..

With highs in the 70s, southwest winds may gust to 35 mph Thursday.

A line of showers/storms likely here Thursday evening with potential of some scattered severe straight-line wind gusts here.

Over the weekend, with our cooler weather, upper low spinning in the Southwest will bring multiple rounds of severe t’storms with wind, hail & tornadoes from Texas to Kansas & Louisiana to perhaps as far north as southern Missouri.

This severe weather threat may extend into the Deep South on next Monday-Tuesday, while rain may get as far north as Indianapolis.

However, we look dry………………….for now……………….with highs in the 50s to around 60 (with partly cloudy skies).  Strong Canadian surface high to our north should protect us from rain, but it will be rather cool.

This is a tight-rope on how far north this rain will get & a close call, stay tuned.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW APRIL 26-MAY 7.

In terms of frost/light freeze…………Saturday night look to drop to 30-33 & Sunday night, 31-36.

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May 1-4……….

Upper trough will bring cold pocket aloft through around May 2-3.  This will tend to bring some scattered instabilityshowers/t’showers with perhaps some graupal.  Highs May 1-4 will run 56-64 with lows in the 30s & 40s, it appears.  Looks like we may even have some patchy frost during this time, especially on the night of May 4.  I think Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass & Miami counties could drop to 31 or 32.  Surface high looks to be right overhead.  The rainfall does not look heavy or significant.

May 5-7…………..

A brief return to 65-70, then seems likely May 6 (61-66 May 5).  In terms of rainfall, there is a shortwave & cool front that may pass May 6, but rainfall with it looks insignificant with 59-65 May 7.

May 7-9………….

A surge of warmth seems likely after the May 9 time frame with 80s.

OVERALL, PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY & COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY MAY.


4:45 P.M. Update

April 21st, 2014 at 4:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We hit 76 at WLFI today, but with sprinkles, we currently have 71 with a south wind at 17 mph.

It is actually warmer in our northeast, where there is more sun & no rainfall around.

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Scattered showers & even some t’showers in our northwest are moving in as of 4:46 p.m.

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2:45 P.M. Update

April 21st, 2014 at 2:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Soils continue to warm!  Yesterday, bare soil at 4″ deep reached 78 at West Lafayette.  This morning, temperature of that bare soil was 60, the highest so far this year at 10 a.m.

You can see the progression of the average 10 a.m. soil temperature each week since the week of March 23.

50 or greater at 10 a.m. is the threshold for beginning of corn planting (best at +55, though).

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It is not necessarily a lot of rainfall, but some scattered showers are approaching.  A few embedded t’showers are possible.

I still like 0.10-0.30″ for the rainfall forecast.

Tomorrow will be windy & cooler with north winds to 35 mph.  However, it will be mostly sunny with highs of 57-65.

Tomorrow night, frost & light freezing is possible with lows of 30-34 with the wind going light to calm.

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The Next 9 Days In a Nutshell

April 20th, 2014 at 11:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

1.  Some scattered showers/t’showers are possible Monday afternoon-evening.  Coverage will run 40%.  Rainfall totals will likely run 0.10-0.30″.  Highs of 75-80 look good.

2.  Cool-down will drop it to 60s Tuesday-Wednesday with lows in the mid to upper 30s at night.

3.  Warm-up to 70s to perhaps 80 possible late week with wave of storms possible.  Severe weather still cannot be ruled out, following one or two waves of severe weather in the Plains.  In terms of rainfall totals, it doesn’t necessarily look like a lot, but a 0.40-0.60″ rain is possible.

4.  Cool-down Saturday-Sunday may drop highs to 55-60 with lows of 31-34.

5.  Early next week, return of 70s will occur.


Beautiful Day!

April 20th, 2014 at 6:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has been a beautiful Easter Sunday.  For our northwestern counties, today is the warmest day so far this year!

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