Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

Smokey Sky & Where We Stand for the Summer

July 28th, 2014 at 3:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The skies should be deep beautiful blue, but are pale white/gray to almost sulfur yellow.  This is smoke due to Canadian wildfires moving over area in northwest upper flow.

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Where we stand with this summer’s & July’s temperatures from the Purdue Ag Farm COOP station.  Here at WLFI, our July temperature is 68.8, while it is 68.5 at the Ag Farm (68.8 at the Purdue Airport). 

Taking the station number, we would still tie with 2009 for coolest so far.  In 2009 our July temperature at the station was 70.1 (70.3 at the Purdue Airport) & we had 16 of 31 days drop into the 50s.  We did not hit 90 in July 2009, but peaked at 88.0 on July 10.  The warmest overnight low was 66 on July 15 & 28 in 2009. 

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Even tonight, near record cool weather is possible.  It is not uncommon to get a couple days of low 70s in July every few years, but to have consecutive rounds of such weather the entire month of July is RARE.  This puts July 2014 in a different category altogether. 

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Pale Sky From Canadian Wildfire Smoke…..Outlook to Next Week

July 28th, 2014 at 10:52 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A “SMOKEY” SKY…………..

You may notice pale sky today.  This is Canadian wildfire smoke as massive areas are burning with record heat & dryness in central Canada.  It is being pushed south in northwest flow.

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NEAR-RECORD COOL NIGHT AHEAD…………THEN UPPER LOW & SPOTTY T’STORMS AND ISOLATED WIND/HAIL………….

Upper low over eastern Canada will actually pivot backward to the west, then south a Tuesday-Thursday, then stall.  This will keep spotty t’storms popping each & every day over our area for near a week.

Here, surface CAPE values of 1000 J/kg Tuesday, 1500 Wednesday & Thursday, combined with late July-early August sun & cool air aloft with upper low will pop a few scattered t’storms each day.  Isolated strong wind/hail to 0.75″ diameter may occur.

Even Friday-Sunday, strong sun angle, warmer, more humid weather, surface CAPE to 2000 J/kg will support some pop-up scattered t’storms each day.  Isolated wind/hail is possible.  In fact, an isolated severe hailer (+1″ diameter) is possible, given slightly higher CAPE values.

Highs will run in the upper 70s Tuesday & Wednesday, around 80 Thursday & in the low 80s Friday-weekend.  Lows will run in the 50s tonight-Thursday.  Tonight looks to be the coolest night of the week with clear skies & patchy fog with lows near 51.  Tomorrow nights & Wednesday night’s lows will run 55-60.

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WARMER…………BUT NO 90s SEEN UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT………..

Looks like next week (week after this one) we may actually have a day or two that reaches the upper 80s.


Very Strong System For Late July

July 27th, 2014 at 7:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

To get grapefruit-sized hail in late July near the Tennessee line in Kentucky & baseball-sized hail in Tennessee is rare (owing to higher freezing levels in summer).  Also, for 10 homes to be completely destroyed by a tornado in Tennessee…….in late July is rare.

Such severe weather in the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains, even New England, yes, but in parts of the South, no.  Even very large hail seen today is not common in our area so late in the season.

The gusts to 44 mph this evening behind the front show the strength of the system that is more like May or October, than late July.

We, by all means, should’ve had a significant derecho yesterday, judging by similar systems in the past.  We missed it & today Michigan to North Carolina to New York is getting hammered by the unusually strong outbreak for so late in the season.

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Updates

July 27th, 2014 at 3:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

5:22 p.m.

Storms have exited, lower dew points & cooler air is coming in.  Winds are strong behind front to 40 mph from northwest, however.

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4:29 p.m.

We have gone from 86 with a dew point of 74 to now 84 with a dew point of 62 with passage of the cold front.  Winds are also gusting from the northwest to 40 mph behind it.

Storms are lining up the cold front with potentially localized gusts to 55 mph  from Kokomo to Ladoga.

Wind gusted to 40 mph (wind sustained around 30 mph) with storms at I-65 & 28, while a tree is down on power lines 3 miles northwest of Covington.

Covington measured t’storm gust of 52 mph, White County Airport 37 mph & Attica 36 mph.  Rochester gusted to 40 mph.

Kokomo Airport currently has sustained wind at 35 mph with gust 47 mph as storms move in.

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3:54 p.m.

Hail 0.50-1″ in diameter is possible in northern Cass County over next 20 minutes with gust to 50 mph.

0.25-0.75″ hail possible northern Fulton County.

0.25″ hail, gust to 55 mph possible Fountain to Montgomery counties.

Cold front continues to work through area with multi-cells & still potential of a supercell.

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3:20 P.M. Update

July 27th, 2014 at 3:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Line of multi-cells with one supercell (near Covington) are moving through the area with cold front & shortwave trough.  It is more unstable than yesterday with no cap, but we do not have the wind/fields/shear like yesterday in our area.  Regardless, shear/instability supports supercells & multi-cells & will maintain “few severe with wind/hail” wording for storms this afternoon.

Warning for Fountain/Montgomery is possible soon for hail/wind should storm continue to strengthen.

Meanwhile, tornadic supercell is approaching Columbus, Ohio with other hail/wind & tornadic storms in Kentucky.

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Here is a pic from near Klondike, looking southward:

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Hot, Unstable & Uncapped As of 2 p.m. + Cold Front & Shortwave = Storms

July 27th, 2014 at 2:06 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Surface CAPE is approaching 3500 J/kg with uncapped airmass in the viewing area.

Cold front & shortwave passing with this very unstable, uncapped airmass will support  scattered multi-cell storms this afternoon.    A few large hail/damaging wind reports are possible.  Shear/wind fields are not like they were yesterday.  Yesterday they were very strong, today, not as much, except east & southeast of our area.

Temperatures are soaring through the 80s with dew points in the muggy 70s as of 2 p.m.

SPC put out Severe T’Storm Watch for Pulaski, Fulton, White, Cass, Miami until 9 p.m.

Scattered storms are developing in northeastern/eastern Illinois & southeastern Wisconsin.

Widespread severe weather is likely southeastern/eastern Indiana to Pennsylvania & Virginia.

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10:30 A.M. Update

July 27th, 2014 at 10:39 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered t’storms have been passing through overnight & this morning.  One produced pea-sized hail at Burrows:

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Additional scattered t’storms are possible this afternoon with highs in the 80s, as the sun appears.  Looking at surface CAPE at already 2500 J/kg in Illinois & reasonable shear, isolated severe wind/hail are possible.

Severe weather outbreak is possible east & southeast of our area.


The Rest of Tonight & Sunday (& Beyond)

July 26th, 2014 at 11:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Widespread damaging straight-line winds are roaring through central Kentucky with 15 counties under Severe T’Storm warnings.  We are quiet with clearing skies.

Scattered t’storms are possible after midnight in our area, mainly in the southern half as impulse over Missouri tracks eastward.  No severe weather is expected.

As the actual cold front passes tomorrow, some scattered showers & storms are possible, but no severe weather is currently expected in our area.

Stay tuned for updates.

Severe storms are possible Indianapolis area & southeastward per data as of 11 p.m.  Severe weather outbreak is possible from Indiana to Pennsylvania, Delaware & Virginia.

Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s with winds picking up from the west up to 30 mph in the afternoon-evening.  Less humid air will work in later in the day.

Highs will run in the 70s Monday-Wednesday (lows in the 50s……near record cool conditions are possible Tuesday & Wednesday mornings with lows near 50 to the lower 50s) with 80s Thursday-Saturday with increasing humidity.  Showers & storms are possible by next weekend.

 


Updates

July 26th, 2014 at 7:25 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

9:30 p.m.

Storms have exited.  Winds gusted 30-45 mph in our eastern/southeastern counties.

This bowing line of storms has not reached derecho status.

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8:15 p.m.

Mesoscale analysis still show considerable CINH (surface capping) that storms are fighting.  So, storms are still a bit elevated.  Downstream of the line, temperatures are 75-80 with dew points of 70-75.

Winds may gust to 50 mph with line moving northeastward through Tippecanoe, Clinton & Montgomery counties.

Tyler reported gust of 50 mph at West Lafayette golf course & witnessed 2″ diameter limb coming down.

Thorntown united just gusted to 51 mph.

Jamestown INDOT unit just reported sustained winds at 30 mph & gust to 41 mph.

I-65 & 28 INDOT unit is reporting sustained winds at 25 mph.

Estimated gust of 40-45 mph southwest of West Lafayette.

WLFI gusted to 40 mph, Purdue Airport 38 mph.

No warnings in effect as of 8:18 p.m.

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8 p.m.

It is a pretty ragged comma head with main organized bow of storms in southern Indiana & southeastern Illinois.

Severe T’Storm Warning in effect for southern Montgomery County.

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MEASURED T’STORM GUSTS:

M35 mph  Covington

M35 mph  Attica

M36 mph  Crawfordsville

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7:25 p.m.

Gusts of 60 mph have been reported from Vermilion County, Illinois (south of Danville).  Trees & large limbs are reportedly down in Urbana, Illinois.

Downtown Danville gusted to 41 mph.

Severe T’Storm Warning for southern Fountain & central & southern Montgomery counties until 8 p.m.  Gusts to 60 mph are possible.

T’Storm Watch is in effect until 2 a.m., but it will likely only last until 10 p.m. in our area.

+2″/hour rainfall rates are likely.

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6:37 P.M. Update

July 26th, 2014 at 6:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storms are becoming surface-based as MCV & widespread storms erode capping in east-central Illinois.  However, much of the viewing area is still very much capped near the surface.

The storms have reportedly broken large limbs off trees in Coles & DeWitt counties in east-central Illinois.

Thinking T’Storm Watch likely soon, given environment downstream (especially if cap erodes).

Again, even if we do not get bow/derecho apex, comma head may still produce widespread damaging straight-line winds over part of our area given potential of the cap to erode away with approach of the storms.

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