It will warm up through the week with lots of sunshine.

In fact, we may hit or exceed 70 degrees area-wide on Friday.

A strong storm system will arrive Saturday & bring rain & t’storms.

Right now, the best potential of severe weather is likely to stay to our southwest & south.

This will need to be monitored, however.

Sunday-early next week will feature lots of clouds, unusually chilly temperatures, blustery conditions & scattered rain &/or snow showers.

Here are some tornado statistics for the entire viewing area.

These are the average number of tornadoes per square mile since 1990

Tippecanoe has been on a tornado streak since 1990 .

Tornado hot spots in our viewing area wax, wane & move about from year to year & decade to decade.  However, there are areas that tend to have more in the way of tornadoes over decades.

These are the top 5 tornado counties for the past 20 years.  Taking the number of tornadoes over the past 20 years divided by the land area gives me the statistics below.

Due to winter snowmelt & recent rainfall, lowland flooding is likely now-mid week along the Wabash, Kankakee & Iroquois rivers.  The highest flooding will occur in central & southern Warren & Fountain counties.

The Wabash will crest 6-8′ above flood stage by Tuesday-Tuesday night in Warren & Fountain counties. 

The Wabash will crest 4-6′ above flood stage by Monday in Tippecanoe County.  In Carroll, Cass & Miami counties, the river may crest near bankfull to as much as 2′ above flood stage Sunday.

The Kankakee River will crest 1-2′ above flood stage in northern Newton & Jasper counties by early-mid week.

The Iroquois River will crest about bankfull to 1′ above flood stage at Rensselaer & Foreman in Jasper & Newton counties today.

 A scattering of showers will occur Saturday.  Sunday will be the drier of the two weekend days with only a few isolated showers.

Both days will be rather dry, cool & blustery.

Projected Rainfall Totals Friday 3 p.m.-Sunday 5 a.m.:

Water on the Wabash Lafayette southward may get a few feet above flood stage Sunday-Tuesday.  The highest readings will be near I-74.

The Kankakee may rise a bit above flood stage.  These higher stages on the Kankakee & Wabash will begin to flood some agricultural land.

Other creeks, streams & ditches will rise & may reach bankfull briefly, then fall.

A ridge of high pressure will dominate with next week with sunshine & warming temperatures.  In fact, we will likely see 70 or above again.

After the dry & tranquil week, a potent storm system will bring rain & t’storms Friday &/or Saturday.  Given the dynamics, strength of the cold front & projected instability, it appears a substantial severe weather outbreak may evolve near us or right in our area.  Stay tuned……..

Following that potent system, sharply colder air will arrive.  The colder-than-normal temperatures with even some wet snow will last from late month into early April.

After this last gasp of winter cold, it appears a record/near record dome of heat will arrive by April 10.  This will likely bring our first 80s of the season.

Showers & few t’storms continue to race through the area.

They will certainly be heavy in places, especially north & northeast of Lafayette in the next 1-2 hours.

After being dry a good chunk of the day, showers & a few t’storms are now arriving from the south & southeast.

No severe weather is expected here, despite some severe t’storm warnings in Kentucky, Ohio & southeastern Indiana.

Given the recent & upcoming rainfall, the Wabash River will rise.

It is expected to crest 1.4′ above flood stage on Sunday evening on Covington.  The Kankakee will crest at bankfull or 0.5′ above flood stage  in northern Newton & Jasper County by mid-next week.

Rainfall Projection through Sunday 5 a.m.:

Beth, from Benton County, still reported some hail on the ground at 9:15 p.m. tonight.  This was nearly 2.75 hours after the hailstorm!

All of this hail on the ground has chilled it & thus chilled the air above it.  Heat from the air has been used to melt the hail.  So, the area with that streak of heavy hail across Warren & Benton counties is exhibiting temperatures cooler than surrounding areas.

Areas of fog will form tonight, especially over the areas that had the heaviest rain & heaviest fall of hail.

The mini supercells are gradually weakening & will eventually pull away later this evening.

There were several reports of hail.  The largest stones in this general region were 0.88″ in diameter or nickel-size & fell near Pine Village to south of Fowler & south & east of Lowell.

The coverage of the lightning is decreasing now.

A couple of these storms were rotating this evening, especially the one in Benton County.  In fact, from a radar standpoint, it had a well-formed wall cloud or mesocyclone.

Low-topped, mini-supercell mesocyclones can be hard to pick up.  Many times they will put down a brief rope tornado with little, if any, warning.  However, the tornadoes are normally in the EF0, to occasional EF1 range.

Here is the velocity couplet showing the rotation over northern Benton County.

Accompanied this cell was largely pea to dime-sized hail.  The largest hailstones, at nickel-size, mixed in over southern Benton & northern Warren counties, according to spotters.

Caleb Owens of Fowler captured this pic after the hailstorm.

Mike Riley snapped this picture during the hailstorm in Fowler.

Shelly took this picture of pea- to dime-sized hail on her back deck in Fowler.

One of our spotters, Autumn reported hail up to nickel-sized covered Route 26 near Pine Village for a while.  She also stated her husband slid on the slick road!

Autumn was looking into the face of the storm as it moved toward her location to the north.

Here is a pic of the hailstorms face from her Pine Village location as it approaches.

Amanda Mullins took this pic of the pea-sized hail in Attica.

Russell caught this pic of the Fowler hail that looked like snow on the ground from a distance!

An intense downpour of pea- to dime-sized hail mixed some nickel-sized hailstones was reported from northern Fountain to Warren & Benton counties.

Biggest percentage of the nickel-sized stones were just south of Fowler.

I will have another post later this evening……

Band of showers & t’storms this morning, break, now scattered, low-topped supercellular t’storms continue to bubble up areawide.

A few of these could produce some hail & torrential downpours.

Rain totals for the day of 0.50-0.75″ amounts appear likely.  An isolated 1″ total cannot be ruled out under the heaviest of the t’storms.  This will cause ponding on roads & intersections, in addition to marginal rises in ditches & streams.

Although the best potential of a brief EF0 or weak EF1 tornado spin-up is to our south & southwest (where there was more sun with the break & thus warmer temperatures), I cannot totally rule out a renegade tornado warning in our viewing area.

This is due to the potent wind shear & decent instability.

These storms have a lot of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning with them.

When thunder roars, go indoors, regardless if the storm is distant.