Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Active Weather Pattern Through November 30…….

November 20th, 2009 at 12:21 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs near 58 degrees will occur Saturday, Sunday & Monday.

WEEKEND

It appears a coastal low will rapidly develop Friday & peak over the weekend with ALOT of heavy rain in the southern U.S.

The deep tropical connection this low may ingest will producing some flooding rain the South.

Like “Ida” it may suck up alot of moisture from the Gulf & scour it pretty clean of moisture.

Recovery of Gulf moisture would be in question IF THAT DOES HAPPEN.  That said, if the Gulf is scoured clean & unable to re-charge, then our rainfall totals of 1-2″ may be cut next week.

This may or may not happen & much more analysis will need to be done over the weekend to determine this.

low

STORM SYSTEM

Nonetheless, the coldest air of the season looks likely to arrive late next week………..most likely on Thanksgiving night & Black Friday.

STORM SYSTEM WED.

STORM SYSTEM COLD

It appears flurries & at least some snow showers will pivot in on Black Friday with gusty northwest winds.

FLURRIES

This potent cold snap will last 2-3 days, before it retreats & temperatures of 48-54 return the week thereafter.

AFTER THANKSGIVING


New Entry Soon……

November 19th, 2009 at 11:13 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I will have a new entry after the newscast on the forecast through Thanksgiving with brand-new data………..


The First 18 Days of November……..

November 18th, 2009 at 6:57 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

For those of you who keep records &/or want to know how November is shaping up, here are the records I take here at WLFI.

I have been taking weather records back home since 1993 & I enjoy taking them here at the station.

The daily highs, lows & precipitation can be seen on my almanac page in my weathercasts.  We will show it just before commercial if my producer & director have enough time in the show for it.

Nov-09
Date High Low Actual Avg. Rain Snow Comments
11/1 55.8 28.9 42.4
11/2 65.3 41.3 53.3 Trace
11/3 50.1 31.3 40.7 34.5 by 10 pm
11/4 58.8 37 47.9 Trace
11/5 54.7 32.6 43.7 a.m. low 33.5…32.6 at 11:59p
11/6 62.4 32.3 47.4
11/7 72.1 46.4 59.3 Peak Gust to 31 mph
11/8 73.2 47.8 60.5
11/9 68 51.2 59.6
11/10 58.4 52 55.2 a.m. low 52.4
11/11 55.4 33.4 44.4
11/12 59.5 28.5 44.0
11/13 62.6 30.5 46.6
11/14 68.1 43.2 55.7
11/15 60.2 44.5 52.4 0.4 Afternoon High 51
11/16 46.3 42.6 44.5 0.67 Peak Gust to 30 mph
11/17 46.3 42.8 44.6 0.45 Peak Gust to 34 mph
11/18 47.8 43.4 45.6 0.13

“Proposed” New Cloud “Species”………

November 18th, 2009 at 5:59 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

“Altocumulus undulatus asperatus”………………..that is the new “species” name proposed for a very interesting cloud type.

I have seen these several times before in Indiana in varying decrease of odd shape & undulating waves.

They are caused by turbulent, sharp changes in wind direction & speed at that cloud’s level.  This may dynamically-induced or induced by evaporative cooling by precipitation.

Also, I have found that they most often occur when the lower atmosphere is very dry, the mid-levels are slightly unstable & showers are precipitating from the clouds into the dry lower atmosphere.

Ac A

Ac AS

Ac Asper

Ac Asper II

Ac Asper-rific IIV

Ac undulatus asperatus

Ac Asper-rific IIIV

Ac Asper-rific IIIIV Ac Asper-rific IIAc Asper IV

Ac Asper-rific


Active Weather Pattern…….

November 17th, 2009 at 10:37 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

THIS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNTIL THANKSGIVING WITH 3 WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM NOW-THEN (COUNTING THE CURRENT SYSTEM) WITH SOAKING RAIN.

THE TEMPERATURES LOOK RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL AROUND THANKSGIVING.

AT THAT POINT, A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES & THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.

THE EXACT TIMING OF THE THANKSGIVING PERIOD SYSTEM, COLD & SNOWFLAKES IS STILL IN QUESTION, SO STAY TUNED…………

It will continue to be showery through Thursday.  However, the coverage of rain will continue to decrease with time.

GFS II

All of that storminess & the huge blizzard in Alaska (which is affecting the Pacific Northwest now) pump mild temperatures into our area by Friday & Saturday.

FRIDAY TEMPS

The next system after the current one, will arrive next Monday & Tuesday after that mild stretch Friday & Saturday.

Robust Gulf connection will promote widespread rainfall across our area.

TUESDAY

The Thanksgiving period system looks potent with the possibility of an outbreak of severe t’storms in the Southeast U.S.

THANKSGIVING

The cold continues & will continue to build.

OOZE 1

That expanding ridge may act as the bump needed to dislodge the frigid air south.

OOZE 1

Chunk of cold is likely to arrive at or right after Thanksgiving.

OOZE 2

As potent storm system departs, the coldest air of the season, strong northwest winds & the first snow showers & flurries of the season will pivot in.

snow


New Entry Out This Evening………..

November 17th, 2009 at 2:11 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Hey everyone!  I sure have missed forecasting & working on my blog. 

It is great to be back in the saddle!  I got in a little later than anticipated early this morning, so I am running a bit behind.

This wet, active, windy weather pattern has arrived with a good 1-2.5″ of rain area-wide in the past 2 days.  More weather systems are on their way.  By the way, that major Alaskan storm is hitting British Columbia, Washington & Oregon.  Winds have been gusting to 90 mph on the Oregon Coast with10″ of rain projected with 8′ of snow in the mountains.  In fact, Avalanche Watches are likely from Alaska to Washington by late week!

Our system is quite vigorous, too with 2 waves of heavy rain & east wind gusts clocked to 35 mph this morning!

I will have a new entry out this evening……………………it does look quite interesting around here now-Thanksgiving!


The Weather Pattern to Thanksgiving……

November 13th, 2009 at 8:51 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

THIS IS THE ONLY TIME THIS BLOG WILL BE UPDATED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT…….I AM HEADED OUT-OF-STATE & WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT…………..

First weather system is projected to arrive Monday among most models.  This rain is projected to last into Tuesday.

However, there are now indications that some of the models are slowing the system down.

IF this occurs, it would hold the rain off until Monday night, Tuesday, even possibly a bit later.

Stay tuned, this may or may not happen & as the exact outcome is still in question.

However, I am keeping the rain coming in on Monday until further evidence arrives & I see the need to change the forecast.

WRF II

Another a system is likely to affect us with wind & rain Thursday-Friday & temperatures in the 50s & 60s.

FRIDAY

Yet another system is due late next weekend with rain & wind.

SUNDAY

It appears a significant chunk of cold air may affect us by Thanksgiving.

t-giving


Active, Wet Pattern About to Ensue……

November 13th, 2009 at 12:11 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Monday will be the beginning of a very active pattern with a weather system every 1-2 days through Thanksgiving.

Each one looks moisture-charged with surge of juicy tropical moisture feeding each one via the Pacific & Gulf.

Alot of this juicy connection can be traced to the moisture-charged subtropical jet due to El Nino.

4 SYSTEMS

It appears alot of these systems will break off from persistent storminess in Alaska.  This storminess may be attributed to two old typhoons arriving in Alaska.

Disturbances breaking off each one of these 2 blizzards (old typhoons) will develop numerous storm systems.

We will have several brief cold snaps, but several nice mild periods with the rain, in between.

ALASKAN BLIZZARD

Following this very active pattern, it appears trough in Alaska & North Pacific will move & a ridge will expand & could dislodge a chunk of the bitter cold southward.

BRUTAL COLD MIGRATING

This cold may affect us by Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving


Cold, Frosty Morning……….

November 12th, 2009 at 7:19 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a cold, frosty morning with Morocco, Winamac, West Lafayette COOP Station & Galveston experiencing their coldest morning of the season!

Lows This Morning:

Morocco 23°
Winamac 23°
West Lafayette COOP Station 25°
Galveston 26°
Kewanna 27°
Logansport 27°
Rochester 27°
Peru 27°
Chalmers 27°
(Thanks Kandy!)
Ambia 27°
WLFI-TV 29°
Frankfort 29°
Pence 29°
Attica 29°
Kokomo 29°
Atlanta 29°
Monticello 29°
Crawfordsville 30°
Ladoga 30°
Fowler 30°
Perrysville 30°
Remington 30°
(Thanks Mary Anne!)
Lafayette South 31°
(Thanks Teri!)
Colfax 31°
Purdue University Airport 31°

Driest Start to a November in 10 Years…….

November 12th, 2009 at 12:56 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a wet, cold October, the first 11 days of November have been the driest since 1999 .  This has been accompanied by our average temperature running 5.7 degrees above normal here at WLFI.

Only a trace of precipitation has been recorded here at WLFI & this is the story over the entire area.  Our northwestern counties have had the most with around 0.10″ total for the month.  Even this is the lowest amount during the first 11 days since 1999.

It appears the next widespread, soaking rain will fall Monday.  Current guidance supports 0.75-1″ with gusty winds of up to 32 mph with this potent storm system.

WLFI-TV Weather Records for First 11 Days of November:

Date High Low Actual Avg. Rain Snow Comments
10/1 55.8 28.9 42.4      
10/2 65.3 41.3 53.3 Trace    
10/3 50.1 31.3 40.7     34.5 by 10 pm
10/4 58.8 37 47.9 Trace    
10/5 54.7 32.6 43.7     a.m. low 33.5…32.6 at 11:59p
10/6 62.4 32.3 47.4      
10/7 72.1 46.4 59.3     Peak Gust to 31 mph
10/8 73.2 47.8 60.5      
10/9 68 51.2 59.6      
10/10 58.4 52 55.2     a.m. low 52.4
10/11 55.4 33.4 44.4     Down to 37.1 at 11:59p
Nov. ‘09 61.3 39.5 50.4 (50.4 – 44.7 =    
Typical 54.5 34.9 44.7 5.7)    
    5.7 Degrees Above Normal for First 11 Days of Nov. ‘09