Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

The Unprecedented 1891 September Heat Wave…….Outlook to October 7

September 17th, 2014 at 10:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The September 16-28 heat wave in the viewing was unprecedented in its persistence & longevity, but also the fact that near to record hot levels occurred on an incredible 12 consecutive days.

The latest mid to upper 90s temperatures (in the 1879-2014 record) occurred in the area until 1953.  However, not other September showed so many 90s days except 1897 (record driest August-early October stretch & second driest September on record).

Interestingly, the summer wasn’t all bad & ample rainfall occurred.  The hottest temperatures of the year occurred in September.

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Today was a beautiful day!  Skies will tend to clear tonight with some patchy fog developing.  The fog does not look as dense or as widespread as this morning.

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Thursday looks good with east/northeast wind at 5-10 mph & highs of 69-75 with lows of 45-50 Thursday night.

Friday looks good, too with southerly winds & highs of 74-79.  With partly cloudy skies, lows Friday night will run just 55-60.

Saturday looks partly cloudy & breezy with south-southwest winds at 15-25 mph by afternoon.

Scattered showers & t’storms are likely Saturday night with lows near 64.

Sunday looks to have scattered showers & t’storms, but it appears the rain may be out of the viewing area by 3 p.m.  Highs will run in the 70s.

Monday-Friday of next week looks dry at the moment.  The first of the week will feature pretty chilly night with lows of 40-44, but highs will run from upper 60s to lower 70s.

By late next week, upper 70s to lower 80s cannot be ruled out.

Still looks like the next good chance of rainfall after Sunday will be at the very end of September to around October 1.

There continues to be a signal of a signficant cool-down with highs in the 50s in the first few days of October with the first widespread frost of the season.  I would not be surprised to see 32 in our northeastern & northern counties around October 3.

This looks to be followed by 60s by October 6 & 7 with some dry weather.

This gives you an idea of the trends.  Exact dates will change, but you get an idea as to what may transpire to around October 7.

Not much has changed since the last outlook.

 

 


Cool Start with Fog, But Beautiful Afternoon (Nice Weather Will Continue)

September 17th, 2014 at 2:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I promised I would have this on today & I was finally able go through the numbers & finish this list.

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Dustings of fall color are showing up on our WLFI Tower Cam!

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It is a beautiful day with comfortable temperatures & sunshine after a foggy, cool start!  Highs will max out at around 68-72.

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Looks like the nice weather will continue right through Friday with cool, crisp mornings in the 40s & afternoon highs in the 70s.

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Patchy Dense Fog For the Commute……….Nice Wednesday

September 16th, 2014 at 10:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have been talking about the wet August-September we have experienced, but below are exceptionally dry August-September & strictly September periods dating back to 1879.

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1897 was not only dry, but featured a record stretch of 90s for September.  A few days were even near 100.  Another year known for a high number of days in the 90s for September was 1891.

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Highs ran 64-69 today & we are headed to near 40 to the mid 40s tonight.  Patchy dense fog is likely.

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Wednesday looks nice & notice how model data continues to suggest a warm-up:

LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    9/16/2014  1800 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT 17                  /SEPT 18                /SEPT 19       
 HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 
 N/X              42          71          47          73       50    
 TMP  58 49 45 43 44 62 68 69 63 55 51 49 49 62 70 72 65 57 54 52 73 
 DPT  45 44 42 42 43 51 50 49 50 50 49 48 47 50 46 44 45 47 48 48 52 
 CLD  CL CL SC CL CL FW FW CL CL CL CL CL SC CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL 
 WDR  35 00 00 00 00 21 25 29 36 04 08 06 06 08 07 06 06 07 09 09 18 
 WSP  02 00 00 00 00 02 05 04 02 02 01 03 03 05 06 07 05 05 04 04 07 
 P06         1     2     5     2     0     3     2     2     1  4  5 
 P12               4           5           3           3        5    
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
 Q12               0           0           0           0        0    
 T06      0/ 0  0/ 0  4/ 0  4/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0 
 T12                  4/ 0        4/ 0        0/ 1        0/ 0  0/ 0 
 POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 POS   0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
 SNW                                       0                    0    
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N BR  N

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Beautiful Day, Patchy Fog Tonight

September 16th, 2014 at 5:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful day after low clouds & fog this morning!

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With lows in the 40s, patchy, locally-dense fog is possible tonight-early Wednesday morning.

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Wettest August-September Periods 1887-2014

September 16th, 2014 at 3:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  I re-added everything & also added the 1887-1889 data.  I will have 1879-1886 later this evening.  So, below are the top 20 wettest August-September periods 1887-2014 at West Lafayette.

It has definitely been a historically wet August-September period.  Parts of White County have received 18″ of rainfall since August 1!

At WLFI, we have measured 12.32″ since August 1 from the 8.60″ in August to the 3.72″ so far in September.  The normal for the entire month of September is 2.98″.

At the Purdue Ag Farm, as of 7 a.m. on September 16, the totals was 12.20″.

Putting this +12″ of rainfall since August 1 into local weather history shows that 2014 is 5th wettest August-September period since 1887 at West Lafayette.  This is impressive in that it is only September 16.

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Wet August & September!

September 16th, 2014 at 12:48 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has definitely been a historically wet August-September period.  Parts of White County have received 18″ of rainfall since August 1!

At WLFI, we have measured 12.32″ since August 1 from the 8.60″ in August to the 3.72″ so far in September.  The normal for the entire month of September is 2.98″.

At the Purdue Ag Farm, as of 7 a.m. on September 15, the totals was 11.67″.  After the 15th rainfall, it is probably more like 12.17″.  The exact number will be out on the morning of September 16.

Putting this +12″ of rainfall since August 1 into local weather history shows that 2014 is at least 8th in wettest August-September periods & is more likely 6th at West Lafayette.  This is impressive in that it is only early on September 16 as I type this.

The records below only go back to 1890, as I do not have the rest of my data in front of me, as it is filed at the office.  I will  have the rest of the data (late 1879-1889) as a part of the list tomorrow.

I will also have additional data on wet pattern tomorrow & a look at other weather stations in the viewing area & their rainfall anomalies for this period.

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10 P.M. Update

September 15th, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The showers have exited, but low clouds & fog are across the viewing area as of 10 p.m.

Low clouds, fog & mist will dominate the overnight with lows of 47-53.

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Tomorrow, the day may start gloomy with low clouds, fog & mist, but it is likely that this will all burn off with a partly cloudy afternoon of cumulus with highs of 64-70 with a north wind at 5-10 mph.

Patchy dense fog  likely tomorrow night with lows near 45.


Rainfall Totals As of 4 p.m.

September 15th, 2014 at 4:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Rainfall totals as of 4 p.m.:

DMA Map II

Much of the shower/t’storm action has exited, but there are a few spotty showers up stream.  The heavier showers & t’storms may skim by the southwest as they move southeastward out of the Decatur-Champaign area.

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Outlook to October 5

September 15th, 2014 at 12:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Check this out:  Record heat is dominating areas from California to Alaska…….similar pattern to what we saw in July & last winter.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
731 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS AND DELTA JUNCTION...

FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76
DEGREES TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 73 DEGREES SET BACK
IN 1938. FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ALSO SET A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY...AND RECORDED A RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE SATURDAY AS WELL.

DELTA JUNCTION REACHED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES TODAY.
THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 67 DEGREES SET IN 2006.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NORMALS THIS TIME
OF YEARS ARE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the L.A. area with unusual heat & dryness around Portland, Oregon with wildfire smoke:

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I was able to look our even farther than October 1 this morning & this is the general trend……….

At the moment the back edge of showers/t’storms is running from Jasper to Benton to Warren counties.

There is another area of showers along the I-55 in central Illinois.  So, will keep 50% coverage of rainfall into the afternoon, then drop it off with time late afternoon to this evening.

High temperatures today are problematic.  Temperatures have reached 67 in our southeast, but are holding in the mid to upper 50s where there is a lot of rainfall.  Temperatures are climbing into the 60s in northern Illinois where it is not raining & the break in east-central Illinois shows temperatures reaching 60 in some places.

Thinking for the rest of the afternoon, with still some showers around, will shoot for 60-65.  With some many showers around, it will be a bit hard to warm up, even with a south wind.

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Overall this week through September 30 looks drier than it has been over the past 1.5 months.  Since August 1, 90% of the 7-day forecasts have featured potential of at least scattered t’storms on at least 4 of the 7 days!

There are showers & t’storms today & there will be more Saturday night-Sunday, but otherwise, only September 30-October 1 showers a strong response to showers & t’storms through October 5.

Tuesday-Saturday morning looks great with lots of sun & highs in the upper 60s at first to around 81 by Saturday (with 70s in-between).

As said, showers & t’storms are likely Saturday night-Sunday as the remnant moisture of Hurricane Odile in combination with a storm system brings rain & t’storms.  With remnant tropical mositure & pretty vigorous system, it would seem that locally-heavy rainfall could occur.  Also, with warmer, humid, more unstable airmass & reasonable dynamics, I think it is safe to assume that at least an isolated severe threat may develop.  This is dependent upon how unstable it gets.

Following this, there is still no clear signal of a cold intrusion.  70s seem reasonable, perhaps even a few lower 80s in the viewing area until fairly strong storm system passes September 29-October 1.  This could bring a round of showers & t’storms & much cooler air.

As we end September & begin October, there is a signal of cool air coming in with highs in the 50s.  Frost is a distinct possibility in the first few days of October.  Figuring up thicknesses, lows in the mid 30s cannot be ruled out.

However, warmer weather with 70s may come back in quickly by October 5.

Keep in mind that this outlook is to give you an idea of trends.  Undoubtedly, days will be shifted regarding rainfall & temperatures & the pattern will be monitored daily.  Be aware of tweaks to the forecast.

 


12 P.M. Update

September 15th, 2014 at 12:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers & t’storms will increase in coverage over the next hour as cold pocket aloft passes with clipper-like system.  Low-level jet has also been transporting unstable air northward & push it up & over, cool, stable layer closer to the surface.

Showers & t’storms will tend to peak in the afternoon.  Overall 50% coverage looks good.

Cold air aloft & elevated unstable air supports an isolated pea hailer or two.