I am working on a map with November-current total snowfall. I am examining all of your totals, as well as NWS & CoCoRaHs totals. This will be up later this evening.
Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog
It is a beautiful day! Temperatures are running 41 to 56 across the viewing area.
High clouds will increase this evening & skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight with lows of 28-36.
Scattered rain/snow/sleet showers are possible tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be northerly at 10-15 mph early, then 15-30 mph late in the day! So, it will be a blustery, colder day.
If there is any snowfall accumulation, it would patchy, on the grass & less than 1″.
Sunday doesn’t look bad. It looks mostly sunny & actually warmer than it appeared yesterday. After a morning low near 18, highs of 37-47 look likely with 43 in the Lafayette area. It will be a bit breezy, however, with northwest to then west & southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
MONDAY & TUESDAY:
These days look nice with highs of 54-63 with sunshine, mixed with some clouds. It may be a bit breezy, but it will feel every bit like spring!
Clipper will pass Wednesday with rain/snow/sleet showers, but these will change over to all snow before ending Wednesday evening-night. A few snow showers are even possible Thursday. Winds will be gusty with this system to 32 mph.
In terms of accumulation, some is possible. It appears that this clipper may blow up into an East Coast Nor’Easter with heavy snow & strong winds across the Northeast.
Here, 1″ or less looks good, but if system strengthens, then 1-3″ may be in the offing. Stay tuned for updates, as this is several days out.
Highs will likely reach the 40s Wednesday, then fall into the 30s by afternoon with 30-36 Thursday.
The great thing about this time of year? It warms up quickly after a cold snap (even with snow). After 30s Thursday, I think a RAPID surge to 44-54 is likely Friday with mostly sunny skies!
SATURDAY (MARCH 16):
I wouldn’t be surprised to see highs of 57-63 on this Saturday (March 16) with increasing clouds as a pretty strong cold front approaches.
SUNDAY (MARCH 17):
A clipper may bring a few showers Saturday night-Sunday a.m. Sunday highs look cooler at 43-51, but that is still nice & there will be a decent amount of sun.
MONDAY (MARCH 18):
Cool north winds & 30s & 40s are possible.
BEYOND MARCH 18:
It still looks as if the first 70 for parts of the area may arrive in the March 21-23 time frame.
Overall, it is a pretty dry pattern to March 25.
I will be on here 5 p.m.-6 p.m. for any questions. I will respond immediately to them.
Otherwise enjoy a nice day & I will have another update by 3 p.m.!
NOTE: Patchy freezing fog is still likely tonight. Watch for patchy black ice, as well.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MARCH 6, 1956
Significant severe weather outbreak hit the viewing area during the night-time hours on March 6, 1956.
5 tornadoes were confirmed & hail up to baseballs fell. Winds of up to 80 mph also occurred in the viewing area.
All of the tornadoes were rated F2 on the old Fujita Scale with winds of 133-157 mph. On the modern Enhanced Fujita Scale, these tornadoes would be rated EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale: EF3 = 136-165 mph).
3 people were injured near Dunnington, in Benton County by a tornado that caused $1/4 million in damage (1956 dollars). Figuring in inflation, that would be $2.2 million today.
A tornado roared through areas 1-1.5 miles northwest of Delphi, while another one side-swiped farms northwest of Monticello. The fourth tornado did thousands of dollars of damage to farms near Windfall, while a fifth struck farms between Amboy & Converse. The sixth tracked 2 miles from northwest of the Route 18/Co. Road 500E intersection to north of Galveston Airport to Co. Road 700E. One person was injured from this twister.
Several areas in Carroll County received golfball to baseball hail with locations including Radnor, Bringhurst, Cutler & Burlington. Tennis ball hail occurred in Cass & Miami counties.
A major F4 tornado hit Grant County, killing one person & injuring 31. Loss from this tornado amounted to nearly $35 million (inflation figured)!
Straight-line wind damage occurred over a good chunk of the viewing area with gusts estimated at 60-80 mph.
My hometown of Odon, Indiana (40 miles southwest of Bloomington) sustatined a great deal of damage from this outbreak. Homes were unroofed & significant damage to the large oaks & hickories in the city park.
After 70s on March 6, by the morning of March 8, we were all in the teens with highs only in the 20s to around 30! However, 2 days later, we were all back in the 50s & 60s!
I have been asked, “Will we break the 1884-85 snowfall record?” We stand at 61.2″. It is still possible. I say this because I still think we will see one last hurrah of a snowfall event for the viewing area. Whether it is 6-8″ or 1-3″ remains to be seen, but the probability is high, given previous winters/early springs like this one.
Timing is in question as to weather it will late March or perhaps a bit earlier.
Stay tuned, as we watch how this comes to fruition.
Temperatures as of 4:45 p.m. vary from 28 to 43 across the viewing area!
There is more snow pack in the north, bring temperatures down. However, we are also getting into a time of year where large temperature contrasts are more common as spring moves northward!
Despite some high cirrus coming in, abundant low-level moisture from melting snow/thawing soils & an inversion will create patchy freezing fog tonight. Visibilities may be reduced in rural areas to 1 mile or less at times. Patchy black is also likely.
Have your ice scraper handy for a good frost in the morning!
Rising heights & slow warm air advection will take place, so I didn’t tank the low, but put it at 20 in Lafayette & 17 at Frankfort. Up north, where WAA will be less (with more snow pack), I dropped the temperatures more to 12 at Winamac & 14 at Logansport.
Tomorrow looks nice with mostly sunny skies & south to south-southwest winds at 5-15 mph. High cirrus will increase & begin to thicken later in the day.
Maple sap going to start to run!
Wednesday Snowfall Totals (Source: CoCoRaHs, WLFI spotters):
It is not bad today. It is still a bit cold in the north & northeast owing to more snowpack. In the south it is already in the mid 30s!
NOAA has issued El Nino Watch. It appears El Nino is increasingly likely for fall-winter 2014-15. This said, it is unclear of its strength, but it does not look like a significant episode. It looks to be a weak to perhaps as high as low-end moderate El Nino event.
Why do we care? Strong El Ninos bring mild winters with below-normal snowfall to our area. Weaker to low-end moderate ones have a more nebulous effect. These, in combo with negative AO/NAO can actually bring cold, snowy winters. However, I have seen weaker-moderate ones bring fairly mild winters.
Bottom line is that this will play a factor in next fall-winter outlook. Depending on its strength & just where the core of the warming in the equatorial Pacific sets up will determine how much of a mild winter response we get from it. Like I said, strong ones are a shoe-in for mild winter, but lower grades of it have mixed effect on our area (dependent upon what is happening in the Arctic, Atlantic, Gulf & rest of Pacific).
Watch for slick areas on roads! Ice on roadways should melt rapidly by mid- to late-morning.
Any snow showers or flurries are gone & partial clearing should ensue with time. Sunshine with some clouds will be the rule tomorrow with 32-41, followed by 17-24 tomorrow night & 44-53 Friday.
Friday looks good with mostly sunny skies, light south to south-southwest wind & the warmer temperatures.
Saturday will be colder with breezy conditions, some scattered rain/snow/sleet showers & highs in the 30s.
Clipper will pass Saturday with those rain/snow/sleet showers. It looks as if areas from Iowa to northern Illinois may receive 2-4″ of snow from that clipper.
Here, it looks as if there is any accumulation it would be 1″ or less & quickly gone by midday Sunday. The winds will crank up from the northwest & north to 27 mph Saturday midday to afternoon.
After 34-41 Sunday, 45-54 is likely Monday & 53-60 Tuesday (all from north to south in the viewing area………….north of Winamac to Ladoga, generally-speaking). It will cool off to 35-46 Wednesday & may chill to 32-38 by Thursday.
Overall, still looks like a fairly dry pattern to March 22. Temperatures look to moderate quite a bit with a majority of the readings near normal to a few days above normal. A couple of days of 60s are likely up to the March 20 & the warmest temperature since late October may actually occur near 21-22. I still think a last 1-3″ may occur in late March or perhaps even early April with a last kick from Old Man Winter.
Measured 0.3″ of snow on the snow board. This brings our winter total to 61.2″. In 1880-present data set, this is second only to the 66.5″ of snow in the winter 1884-85.
Snow showers have gotten about as far south as Attica, Romney & Thorntown & that is it.
Snow showers will wind down to flurries with time this evening.
It is a gusty evening with east wind at 22 mph at the station currently with gusts to 26 mph.
Despite not a lot of snow, the wind is still blowing it around & the thin coating is making for slick roads in many areas. Lack of the snow being much is the issue.
The thin veneer is worse than a 1-2″ or more. At least that snow will give you traction!
West Lafayette: 0.3″
4.5 Miles Northeast of Frankfort: 0.3″
Snow showers are found across the northern half of the viewing area (from Pine Village & Lafayette to Forest & northward. Up to 4.5″ has fallen in northern Illinois, but we will see nothing like that. A coating/dusting of less than 1″ is possible. The best chance of 1″ is north of a Brook to Rensselaer to Rochester line, where 0.6″ has been reported in the far north. This will fade away this evening.
Winds are brisk from the east to 25 mph.