Chad’s WLFI Weather Blog

More Top Tens…………Outlook for Tonight-Tomorrow Based On Latest Data

July 22nd, 2014 at 4:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Below is a Top Ten list for summers at NWS Kokomo COOP station since 1901 & Rochester COOP since 1904.

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As of 11 p.m., HRRR model shows storms nearing our northern counties.

Scattered storms still look good for after midnight with broken cluster/line or perhaps a rather compact MCS.  There is no guarantee everyone will get storms/rain, but 40% coverage seems reasonable.  Scattered strong-severe gusts also seem reasonable given arm of stronger westerlies branching off into area.  A bit of hail cannot be ruled out.

Lows will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Some scattered storms may linger into the morning.  A few more may re-fire in our southern areas near midday, then they will quickly exit.

Highs tomorrow will run 77-82 with strong north winds up to 30 mph in the afternoon as cooler, less humid air comes in.

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A Top Ten……T’Storm Outlook For Tonight-Wednesday Morning

July 22nd, 2014 at 12:11 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I am still working on these top ten lists.  Delphi is finished, however.

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It is a hot one!  Heat Advisories are as far east as western Illinois.

Temperatures are surging well into the 80s across the viewing area with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DMA Map II

Segment of stronger upper flow will branch off & nose into Iowa & Illinois this evening (notice new NAM model data below showing a southerly extension or arm of stronger westerlies).  This has caused an expansion of severe weather threat area into our viewing area tonight-tomorrow morning.

Given the residual heat/instability (though it will be waning) & a bit more southerly stronger flow aloft, potential of t’storms organizing into a cluster or two or possibly an MCS/line exists.  Scattered strong-severe gusts are possible.  A bit of hail cannot be ruled out.

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Outlook to August 6

July 21st, 2014 at 10:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have had a lot of haze & pale skies since last week.  A chunk of this is actually smoke from Canadian wildfires.  This was especially the case last week.  Now, the paleness is more pollution, pollution & moisture from sinking air of upper ridge, rather than Canadian smoke.  I noticed this paleness in Wisconsin as Canadian smoke passed over.  Below is an image of the smoke on Thursday of last week.

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Patchy dense fog is likely tonight with lows of 60-65.  Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will dominate with thick haze & highs of 90-95.

Wind will not provide much relief with south to southwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Heat indices will run in the upper 90s to around 100.

It will turn cooler Wednesday after a sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

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Severe weather outbreak is on-going over North Dakota & Manitoba.  These storms will blast Minnesota & Wisconsin, then tend to collapse.

However, new storms will fire to our northwest by tomorrow afternoon-evening.

It looks as if these storms will weaken before their arrival here late tomorrow night-Wednesday morning.  “Scattered storms” seems reasonable for area in the late night-morning.  Midday-early afternoon, new storms will likely re-fire in our southern third with the actual surface cold front.

In terms of severe weather, the severe threat will tend to be northwest of us tonight & tomorrow.  Given the fact that the stronger flow aloft will remain north of the area, it seems reasonable that organized severe will stay north of here.  Those stronger wind fields will set up over New England & southeastern Canada on Wednesday.

However, I would not be surprised to see a couple of isolated severe storms with wind as the main threat.  The widespread severe potential looks low at the moment.  If stronger flow aloft is a bit farther south or storms develop very good, organized cool pool (line), then this could change.  00z data shows a bit better set-up for some severe, but I would rather wait on additional data to alter the severe forecast right now.

Cooler, less humid will arrive behind front with 50s at night & 70s to lower 80s Wednesday & Thursday.  Friday will feature lower 80s.

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Front will move back north & bring some periodic showers/storms to our area Saturday-Sunday.  Humid conditions will dominate Saturday & Sunday with 80s & lows near 70.

In terms of the weather for the Brickyard 400, it appears rainfall coverage may peak for Sunday in the late afternoon & evening.

After this, return of highs in the upper 70s to around 80 & lows in the 50s are likely early next week.  In fact, nearly, if not, all of next week looks dry with a slow warm up back to mid 80s by next Friday.  August 2-6 looks warm to rather hot & humid with highs of 85-90 & lows near 70 with some periodic showers & t’storms.

No heat waves are currently seen to August 6.  However, given potential of deep Alaskan trough by August 10, that may change on/after that date.

 


Summer Top Ten Lists

July 21st, 2014 at 7:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Below is the top 10 hottest, coolest, driest & wettest summers at West Lafayette (Ag Farm & Purdue University) since 1896.  I will combine the 1887-1895 data tonight & eventually the 1880-1886 data.

I also hope to get a summer top ten list of other communities in the viewing area that have long record data sets, including Rensselaer, Logansport, Rochester, Frankfort, Crawfordsville & Kokomo.

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I Will Be On 5-6 P.M.

July 21st, 2014 at 1:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

If absolutely any of you have any question whatsoever, I will be on the blog today 5-6 p.m. (for immediate response).

-Chad


Hot, Humid Weather Ahead

July 21st, 2014 at 12:03 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Still looks very warm today & hot & humid tomorrow.  Widespread 90s are expected with heat indices varying from 96 to 103.

Severe weather outbreak will take place over Minnesota later today-tonight & severe weather is possible to our northwest tomorrow evening.

However, it is unclear how much of a line/MCS will form given the fact that the strongest westerlies will be located north of the area.  We will watch, but at least some scattered storms are likely Tuesday night-Wednesday morning & upcoming forecasts will determine if severe threat will need to be warranted for us.

Wednesday-Thursday look nice, cooler & less humid with lows in the 55-60 range & highs near 80.  Much higher humidity, 80s & storms are likely by the weekend.

 


Areas of Dense Fog Tonight….Hottest Day of 2014 (So Far) Tuesday

July 20th, 2014 at 7:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Had a great time in Wisconsin at a wedding & lake house.  It was quite warm!  It was even warm enough to get into lake water & hang out on a beach.  Each day was beautiful.

A PLEASANT STRETCH…………..AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT………..

Today is the first day we have exceeded 80 since July 14, a total of 6 days, though yesterday our 79 nearly exceeded it.

The last time we had such a stretch in July was last year when we had 8 consecutive days below 80 to round out the month.

Also, the Purdue Ag Farm COOP had an official record low of 48 on the 16th, beating the previous low of 49.  The airport dropped to 50.  We reached 49.3 at the television station.

HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR, SO FAR………….

Monday looks very warm & rather humid with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.  Heat indices will run near 90 to the middle 90s.

We are now looking at the hottest day of the year, so far, on Tuesday with highs of 91-95.  Heat indices in the viewing area may reach 103 in places Tuesday.

Heat Advisories are in effect from northern Minnesota to central Missouri & Kansas as the most widespread, substantial Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains heat event of 2014, so far, takes shape.  Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the Minneapolis area & Air Quality & Ozone Alerts have been issued for western Michigan, northeast Illinois & northwest Indiana.  Actual temperatures may push 110 in Kansas Tuesday with 100 to North Dakota & western Minnesota Monday.

T’STORM POTENTIAL…………..

A severe weather outbreak is possible over Minnesota Monday night-Tuesday with storms in our area Tuesday night-early Wednesday.  Potential exists for a squall line/MCS with wind threat.

BRIEF COOL-DOWN………..THEN HEAT, HUMIDITY & MORE T’STORMS………..

Brief cool-down to 80 is likely Wednesday, followed by 80s, humid condition & lows near 70 to round out the week with return of t’storm potential.

 

 


Comfortably Cool Day (10-15 Degrees Below Normal)

July 15th, 2014 at 9:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I am off of work for the yearly around week of vacation until Monday, but will be back on either Sunday night or early Monday morning.  Off the grid for 5 days with family time, I will dive back into it as the heat & humidity return for next week.

Everyone take care!

-Chad

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It was a very comfortable day!  This evening, a few isolated showers are pivoting in from the northwest.

This will pass this evening-tonight with mostly cloudy skies.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

DMA MapII1


Cool July Records

July 15th, 2014 at 5:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Our high at WLFI of 71.6 today is the coolest July high temperature since last year when the high on July 30 was 71.6.

The Purdue University Airport either hit 69 or 70, the coolest since July 30 of last year, when the high was 71.  July 2 of last year, the airport was just 69.

The Ag Farm hit 72 last year in late July & was 69 in early July.  The television station was 70 July 2.

We will find out how warm the Purdue Ag Farm got  today by 10a tomorrow. 

Low 70s are not rare in July, but when the temperature falls to hit 70, you get into rare territory. 

Since 1887, only 10 days of 3937 July days have failed to reach 70.

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Unseasonably Cool Today……..Hottest Weather of the Summer Coming Next Week

July 15th, 2014 at 12:53 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Looks like readings as high as 94 possible next week in the viewing area.

Below is the long-range GFS mos forecast.  This is the first time all year it has shown 90s so far out.

Pattern will completely do a complete 180 from where we are right now.  I have 68 degrees as of 12:54 p.m.  Temperatures today will run 10-15 degrees BELOW normal as the deep upper trough swings through with the unseasonably cool temperatures for late July.

LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/15/2014  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  15| WED 16| THU 17| FRI 18| SAT 19| SUN 20| MON 21| TUE 22 CLIMO
 X/N  68| 52  76| 50  80| 55  82| 59  84| 62  85| 65  89| 67  91 64 85
 TMP  64| 55  67| 54  74| 59  76| 63  78| 65  80| 68  83| 70  84      
 DPT  53| 54  50| 53  55| 57  57| 59  63| 62  66| 65  68| 66  70      
 CLD  PC| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL      
 WND  12|  7   6|  4   4|  2   6|  3   6|  4   7|  4   7|  4   7      
 P12   8| 11  17| 11  11| 12  11| 15  18| 25  24| 26  22| 20  21999999
 P24    |     17|     13|     21|     25|     41|     35|     32   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      1|       |             
 T12   8|  4  28|  3  22|  5   7|  4  20| 13  30| 14  21| 15  29      
 T24    | 29    | 28    | 22    | 10    | 28    | 31    | 37