It was a nice day & it is a crisp, chilly night. Cold air from Lake Michigan has surged southward into northwestern 1/3, but even other areas are cool (dry air & clear skies).
Saturday looks great with mostly sunny skies & highs of 66-72, followed by mostly sunny skies & 75-80 Easter Sunday.
Monday looks like a 70s day with some scattered showers/t’showers in the afternoon-evening with increasing clouds.
I am still not sold on a lot of rainfall for the area. I think totals of 0.15-0.35″ still looks good & have continued to refrain from higher totals of up to 0.70″.
After slight cool-down, warm, windy weather with 70s & 80s will end next week with t’storms possible Friday. We will watch for severe potential, but it is currently unclear what the magnitude of any severe threat might be here. However, potential is decent for Plains severe weather event later in the week.
This will be followed by a brief cool-down with some frost possible around April 27 (30s) after highs around 60.
Two significant tornado tracked across the viewing area on April 17, 1922 & the clean-up was in full swing on April 18.
Surface low deepened rapidly on the afternoon of April 17, 1922 as it moved through our area. The violent tornadoes seemed to 1) correspond with the surface low track (underneath it or just southeast of it), 2) rapid deepening of the surface low & 3) rapid arrival of the 70s into the area with period of sunshine after morning-early afternoon rain/t’storms.
Eyewitnesses all reported a very rapid strengthening & widening of the Warren County tornado as it moved into the western part of the county.
Photo shows tornado more like an elephant’s trunk in east-central Illinois & damage from Ogden looks like F2 damage.
Damage in central Warren County all supports F4 rating.
These storms were embedded in a larger area of numerous showers & t’showers.
Given the widespread nature of the rainfall & storms, obviously, the low-level jet was extremely strong & rapid intensification of the surface low shows upper jet streak passage.
The 20- to 25-degree temperature drop from April 17 highs to April 18 highs shows a strong, sharp upper trough passage.