The scattered snow showers will taper this evening, followed by gradual clearing.
Record & projected lows for early Saturday morning:
The scattered snow showers will taper this evening, followed by gradual clearing.
Record & projected lows for early Saturday morning:
No need to worry………….this cold & snow will be a distant memory come mid to late next week!
Sharp cold front may arrive around Saturday, April 4, though.
This gives you of the trends being monitored over the next 2.5 weeks.
After 23-26 tonight with partly cloudy skies, skies will turn mostly cloudy by Friday morning with windy conditions (north to northwest gusts to 32 mph) with scattered snow showers. Brief, local dustings are possible.
The projected high of 33 in West Lafayette would make it the 7th coldest March 27 since 1879.
Lows Friday night will drop to 12-17. The record for West Lafayette & Veedersburg is 13 set in 1934 with 14 as the record low at Frankfort set in 1934. Elsewhere, the temperature will not come close to the record lows owing to snow pack on March 28, 1934.
Saturday will still be cool at 35-41, but there will be much less wind compared to Friday. This, with mostly sunny skies, will lead to a reasonably pleasant day with a coat on. Winds look north at 5-10 mph.
Clouds will be on the increase Saturday night & after temperatures fall to near 25, they will begin to slowly rise after 1 a.m. to around 30 by early Sunday morning with northeast & east winds at 5-10 mph turning southeast to south at 10 mph.
With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies Sunday, winds will be strong ahead of a surface cold front, gusting from the south & southwest to 32 mph with sustained winds around 22 mph.
A wave of scattered showers is likely in the afternoon to evening with highs at 47-54. Rainfall amounts look light at 0.02-0.13″.
With front through, winds westerly at 10-15 mph, lows of 33-37 seem good for Sunday night-early Monday morning.
As for Monday, wind will turn westerly to southwesterly pretty rapidly, so we will actually be warmer than Sunday with the sunshine.
It will be a windy day with gusty west to west-southwest to southwest winds at 20-35 mph with highs at 55-60 & 36-42 Monday night (with southwest winds diminishing & turning east-southeast to southeast at 5-10 mph). Some areas of high & mid clouds may pass as warm front lifts northward toward & into the area.
With northward migration of the surface warm front Tuesday, strong southerly to southwesterly winds will usher in highs of 65-70 with partly cloudy skies. Tuesday night, lows of 47-54 are likely with southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph & partly cloudy skies.
Wednesday will be windy with gusty south to southwest winds at 20-35 mph with highs of 69-74 with partly to mostly cloudy skies. If we can make it a mostly sunny day, it could go warmer than this.
A couple spotty showers are possible in the afternoon-evening. Severe weather threat may develop from southern Iowa to Oklahoma.
Wednesday night looks quite mild with strong south to southwest winds at 25-40 mph with temperatures hanging around 60-65 most of the night until the band of showers passes (few t’showers possible) late Wednesday night-Thursday morning which will occur with passage of surface cold front. This front will cool the area to 47-54 by early Thursday morning.
There is only enough elevated CAPE likely available for lightning/thunder discharge & nothing more, it appears right now.
Once the showers exit, a dry, gusty west to west-northwest wind will shunt the cold east & not really cool us off much. Much of the low stratus/stratocumulus around the surface low will be shunted east, but it may get hung up in our northeast. This would keep our northeast mostly cloudy Thursday & thus cooler than the rest of the area.
Regardless, the winds may gust to 30 mph with sustained winds at 10-20 mph. Highs of 58 to 67 are likely with lows of 37-46 Thursday night with west winds around 10 mph.
Even Friday, conditions will remain breezy with highs of 59-65 area-wide with partly cloudy skies.
It should stay warm/mild early next week to around Saturday April 4, it appears.
A stronger surface cold front may approach April 4 as pretty strong Arctic high builds southward over Manitoba. West of this high, a big upper ridge in the west will make a deep trough in the east.
This spells a brief, but decent cold snap.
Saturday, April 4 is the best estimated of timing for the front with temperatures cooling to the 40s after highs at 58-66. Lows of 28-32 are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning (April 5).
Highs on Sunday, April 5, may only run 44-49, based on the latest analysis.
April 6-8 pattern favors a rather cool, northwest flow regime with a weak clipper or two with breezy-windy conditions & a few rain/snow showers. Lows may drop to the 20s (perhaps a 20- to 25-degree night)
My thinking is that cool pattern will flip-flop to a warm pattern with 70s & 80 after April 8.
The rain/snow/sleet from this morning is long-gone & we are getting some slow clearing with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Only trace amounts of snow/sleet occurred.
Anywhere from 0.50 to 1.40″ of rainfall occurred over the past two days, per reports viewed & received.
With partly cloudy skies, lows tonight will drop well down into the 20s.
With skies becoming mostly cloudy Friday, some scattered snow showers are possible. Northwest to north-northwest winds will be strong at 20-30 mph. With the wind & highs at only 30-36, wind chills will stay in the teens most of the day.
The record low high temperature for March 27 at West Lafayette is 21 set in 1955. The record low temperature for March 28 is 13 set in 1934.
In showing how one year can vary greatly from the next, the high on March 27, 1894 was 35 with a low of 14. Just a year later, March 27, 1895, the high was 76!
The forecast high of 33 Friday would make it the 7th coldest 27th since 1879 & the Saturday morning low of 15 would fall 2 degrees shy of the 1934 record.
Near record cold is possible for our central & southwestern counties Saturday morning. Lows area wide may run 13-17.
Saturday will feature sun & much less wind with highs at 35-41.
NW Chicago Metro quake this evening: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10001qrx#general_summary
It has been an active evening from southern Illinois to Oklahoma. Several tornadoes have been reported with hail up to softball size & wind gust to 80 mph. Sadly, one person was killed & several injured by a tornado near Tulsa, Oklahoma. Much more typical to see this weather now, than the extreme quiet severe weather regime of late.
Warnings issued so far this evening (as of 10:30 p.m.):
Still looks rain with a couple of t’storms tonight. This rain may end as some snow tomorrow morning. Grass & car tops may be whitened as temperatures fall to 33-35.
Some partial clearing is possible in the afternoon-evening with a gusty northwest wind at 15-30 mph. Highs of 37-42 seem reasonable.
Violent EF5 tornadoes that obsolutely obliterate everything in their path are not new in their occurrence. History has shown that this massive, violent twisters have been occurring with no uptick or downturn in trends (decade by decade) since the earliest records & reports have commenced in the United States.
Here is a list of those F5/EF5 twisters. The 1952-current data comes from SPC. Prior data is personal research per damage reports (with study of width & track length, as well) & classification by the National Weather Service.
NOTE: The March 20, 1866 tornado in Montgomery County was possibly a high-end EF4, but it currently does not appear to have been an EF5. The long-track May 1917 tornado in Indiana has been arguably classified as an EF5 by some, but it was definitely high-end EF4.
The March 1913 Terre Haute tornado was likely a solid EF4, per photos & damage descriptions.
1952-present (courtesy of SPC):
================================================= NUMBER DATE LOCATION ====== ===================== =========================== 60 May 31, 2013 El Reno OK 59 May 20, 2013 Moore OK 58 May 24, 2011 El Reno/Piedmont OK 57 May 22, 2011 Joplin MO 56 April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Sylvania AL 55 April 27, 2011 Preston MS 54 April 27, 2011 Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL 53 April 27, 2011 Smithville MS 52 May 25, 2008 Parkersburg IA 51 May 4, 2007 Greensburg KS 50 May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore OK 49 April 16, 1998 Waynesboro TN 48 April 8, 1998 Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL 47 May 27, 1997 Jarrell TX 46 July 18, 1996 Oakfield WI 45 June 16, 1992 Chandler MN 44 April 26, 1991 Andover KS 43 August 28, 1990 Plainfield IL 42 March 13, 1990 Goessel KS 41 March 13, 1990 Hesston KS 40 May 31, 1985 Niles OH 39 June 7, 1984 Barneveld WI 38 April 2, 1982 Broken Bow OK 37 April 4, 1977 Birmingham AL 36 June 13, 1976 Jordan IA 35 April 19, 1976 Brownwood TX 34 March 26, 1976 Spiro OK 33 April 3, 1974 Guin AL 32 April 3, 1974 Tanner AL 31 April 3, 1974 Mt. Hope AL 30 April 3, 1974 Sayler Park OH 29 April 3, 1974 Brandenburg KY 28 April 3, 1974 Xenia OH 27 April 3, 1974 Daisy Hill IN 26 May 6, 1973 Valley Mills TX 25 February 21, 1971 Delhi LA 24 May 11, 1970 Lubbock TX 23 June 13, 1968 Tracy MN 22 May 15, 1968 Maynard IA 21 May 15, 1968 Charles City IA 20 April 23, 1968 Gallipolis OH 19 October 14, 1966 Belmond IA 18 June 8, 1966 Topeka KS 17 March 3, 1966 Jackson MS 16 May 8, 1965 Gregory SD 15 May 5, 1964 Bradshaw NE 14 April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls TX 13 May 5, 1960 Prague OK 12 June 4, 1958 Menomonie WI 11 December 18, 1957 Murphysboro IL 10 June 20, 1957 Fargo ND 9 May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights MO 8 April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids MI 7 May 25, 1955 Udall KS 6 May 25, 1955 Blackwell OK 5 December 5, 1953 Vicksburg MS 4 June 27, 1953 Adair IA 3 June 8, 1953 Flint MI 2 May 29, 1953 Ft. Rice ND 1 May 11, 1953 Waco TX
================================================= NUMBER DATE LOCATION ====== ===================== =========================== 62 September 26, 1951 Waupaca OK 61 May 31, 1947 Leedey OK 60 April 9, 1947 Woodward OK 59 April 12, 1945 Antlers OK 58 June 14, 1944 Summit SD 57 April 29, 1942 Oberlin KS 56 April 28, 1942 Crowell TX 55 March 16, 1942 Lacon IL 54 June 18, 1939 Anoka MN 53 April 14, 1939 Vici OK/Kiowa KS 52 June 10, 1938 Clyde TX 51 April 26, 1938 Oshkosh NE 50 April 5, 1936 Tupelo MS/Gainesville GA 49 May 22, 1933 Tryon NE 48 April 10, 1929 Sneed, AR 47 May 7, 1927 McPherson KS 46 April 12, 1927 Rock Springs TX 45 June 3, 1925 Council Bluffs IA 44 June 3, 1925 Logan IA 43 March 18, 1925 Missouri-Illinois-Indiana 42 September 21, 1924 North-Central Wisconsin 41 May 14, 1923 Big Spring TX 40 March 11, 1923 Pinson TN 39 April 20, 1920 Northern AL 38 March 28, 1920 West Liberty IN/Van Wert OH 37 June 22, 1919 Fergus Falls MN 36 May 21, 1918 Denison IA 35 May 21, 1918 Boone County IA 34 May 25, 1917 Southern KS 33 June 11, 1915 Mullinville KS 32 June 15, 1912 Creighton MO 31 June 5, 1908 Carleton NE 30 April 23, 1908 Pender NE 29 June 5, 1905 Coling MI 28 May 10, 1905 Snyder OK 27 June 12, 1899 New Richmond WI 26 May 18, 1898 Marathon Co. WI 25 May 25, 1896 Oakland Co. MI 24 May 17, 1896 Northeast KS/Southeast NE 23 May 15, 1896 Sherman TX 22 May 3, 1895 Sioux Co. IA 21 September 21, 1894 Northwest IA/Southeast MN 20 July 6, 1893 Pomeroy IA 19 May 22, 1893 Darlington WI 18 June 15, 1892 Southern MN 17 April 1, 1884 Oakville IN (Delaware Co.) 16 March 25, 1884 Scipio IN (Jennings Co.) 15 August 21, 1883 Rochester MN 14 June 17, 1882 Grinnell IA 13 June 12, 1881 Hopkins MO 12 April 24, 1880 Christian Co. IL 11 May 30, 1879 Irving KS 10 May 30, 1879 Jackson Co. MO 9 May 22, 1873 Southeast IA 8 June 29, 1865 Viroqua WI 7 June 3, 1860 Camanche IA 6 June 13, 1857 Christian Co. IL 5 September 20, 1845 Northern NY to VT 4 June 5, 1844 Eastern IA to Northern IL 3 May 7, 1840 Natchez MS 2 July 25, 1838 Alleghany Co. NY 2 May 18, 1825 Central OH 1 September 3, 1821 VT to Northeastern MA
It is pushing 80 in parts of the Louisville, KY metro now with 70 as far north as central Ohio. Warm front now as far north as the south Indianapolis metro with temperatures pushing 60.
Here 50s south of 24 will move in this evening with rain & few t’storms overnight. North of 24, it should stay in the 40s.
It appears there is a meso-high of 1018 mb over the icy waters of Lake Michigan keeping the surface warm front south of our area today. I have seen this every years I have been here, except 2012. Lake Michigan’s icy cold water greatly affects the onset of spring here. Cold air surging from the lake may retard spring by 2-3 weeks around here, compared to similar areas to the west & east. If Lake Michigan were not there, it would be different.
HERE’S WHAT IS INTERESTING………………As cold air rushes in tomorrow morning & temperatures fall to 33-36 7 a.m. to 9 a.m., it is POSSIBLE that the rain may change to a period of wet snow. The best chance is northeast of Lafayette, but I cannot rule out a changeover in the Lafayette area either. If it snows long enough, grassy areas & car tops may be whitened. It should melt quickly, however, with highs at 37-42.
It is 70 around Columbus, Ohio now with mid 50s as far north as south side Indy Metro.
The Evansville, Indiana area is surging into the lower 70s, while parts of western Kentucky as now as high as 77.
North side of Dayton, Ohio is 57, southside is 66 as warm front lifts through that city.
Indianapolis International Airport has 50, but Shelbyville Airport is 55, while Franklin on southside of Metro is 57.
Here at WLFI, we continue to hold at 46.6 & have not budged a single bit for 1.5 hours.
Latest short-range models look to bring 60 line to Indianapolis & 50s south of U.S. 24 this evening.
Showers & a few t’storms will arrive overnight.
Below is projection for 1 a.m.
Rain may last into Thursday morning & end as some snow with best chance of this northeast of Lafayette. If there would be any accumulation, it would be light.
As for the day, it just looks windy & mostly cloudy to cloudy with perhaps a few scattered flurries with highs of 37-41. Low temperatures will drop to 23-27.
Scattered snow showers with mostly cloudy skies & windy conditions with record cold highs of 30-35 are likely Friday. A dusting/coating of snow is possible in places with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph at times.
Lows of 12-17 Saturday morning will near/at record cold levels in our central & southwestern counties. We will not even be close to the record in the north & northeast, however. There, records lows at/below 0 occurred on the date due to snow on the ground.
Oddly, the record low of 13 for March 28 was set in 1934, which had one of the hottest, driest summers on record, just behind 1936!
We are holding at 47 at WLFI as of 1:15 p.m., north of the surface warm front. Temperatures are now reaching 70 in the far southern parts of the state.
The forecast quandary is how far north the warm front gets. Considerable rainfall over Oklahoma has forced from back to the central parts of that state, but clearing has forced it back north to around St. Louis to southern Indiana.
Current SPC Mesoscale analysis places the warm front roughly along U.S. 50 in southern Illinois & Indiana.
Thought is that as low lifts northward, front will lift northward, but I am doubtful with a more southerly track that the 60s will get into the area. 50s are possible, but not 60s. The NWS NDFD does bring that 60 line to perhaps our southeastern counties this evening, but I think upper 50s are more likely. NAM brings mid 50s as far north as U.S. 24, but that may be pushing it.
The best chance of 50s are south of U.S. 24.
Overall, it is just a difficult temperature forecast based on how far north the warm front gets. One things for sure, it is not & will not move as far north as it looked yesterday & last night.
Another round of showers & a few t’storms will pass tonight. Severe threat will remain south of our area.
CURRENT REGIONAL ANALYSIS & OVERNIGHT PROJECTED RADAR SNAP-SHOT (AROUND 1 A.M.):
Highs today will run in the upper 50s to mid 60s with gradual clearing possible, followed by a round of showers & even a few t’storms tonight. Severe weather will occur far southern Indiana to Texas with the potential of wind, hail & a couple/few tornadoes. Conditions look ripe for very large hail in Oklahoma of up to softball size later today.
If we would happen to stay cloudy all day, then temperatures may stay in the 50s to around 60 & since warm front has dropped back south, we are on the cool side again right now.
Right now, it is 67 at Louisville, 65 at Owensboro, Kentucky & 63 at Cincinnati, Ohio. HRRR model only bring warm front to our southern counties today, but I think it may get into the area, which is why I did bump temps to the upper 50s to mid 60s.
I say this in response to surface low & cold front approaching from the west, which would tend to push the warm front northward today. So, it may still warm us up, but how much will be governed by timing of low cloud deck erosion.
After some morning rain, tomorrow just looks windy & cold with highs near 41 with 25 tomorrow night.
Friday will be unseasonably cold with highs at only around 35 with a strong northwest wind & some scattered snow showers. A dusting is possible in places.
Near-record cold is likely Friday night with lows near 14. The record for West Lafayette is 13.
We’ll hit 40 Saturday, 51 Sunday, 60 Monday & may even get to 70 my mid-next week. However, at that time, showers & t’storms are possible with perhaps even some showers/t’storms as early as Sunday night-Monday as warm front moves through.