Again, I would not cancel any plans, but be aware that there will be some passing scattered showers & t’storms through Monday.

This said, we have had a few isolated showers today & a wave of more widespread showers this evening-tonight.  These will pull away with time overnight.  Lows will be near 50.

There will be a few scattered showers/t’storms tomorrow, but coverage will run only around 30%.  It still appears the next more widespread area of rainfall would be Sunday night.  Highs Sunday will run near 67 & lows Sunday night will run near 54.

Memorial Day looks to have scattered showers & t’storms around, but there will be breaks in-between.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs of 70-75.

When thunder roars, go indoors, have brief back-ups for passing rainfall/thunder & lightning, but it does not look like a big wash-out of a Sunday or Monday.

THE LATEST:

Scattered showers & a few t’storms will pass  from time to time later today through Monday.

I would not cancel plans, but have a back up for when scattered rainfall passes through.  There will be time where you will have to bring it indoors, but then can head back out in dry stretches.

It doesn’t look rainy the entire time, but off & on with those aformentioned dry stretches in-between.

It would be nice for the warm front to speed up & move through fast enough so that the rain potential would end by Monday afternoon, but that does not look to be the case right now.

In terms of timing of most widespread rainfall in the viewing area, it looks as if there will be a wave of more widespread rainfall later today-tonight & then again later Sunday-Sunday night with another perhaps Monday morning.  In-between those periods, it looks much, much more scattered.  So, during more widespread rainfall, coverage looks like 50% & then 20-30% in-between those periods.

NEXT WEEK:

Once we get this warm front through, it will dry out & turn hot & humid next week.

Severe weather threat will move in next Saturday late with additional severe weather potential still June 3-6.  We may get into a fairly active period at that time.

With beautiful mostly sunny to sunny skies, temperatures were largely in the mid to upper 60s today.  However, it was only around 60 in the far north with that due north wind off the lake.  Such a long fetch of wind over the chilly lake water forced the cool air well inland.

Surface warm front will approach Saturday & Sunday.  Both days look partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers Saturday (15-20%) & few scattered showers/t’storms Saturday night-Sunday (30%).

Rainfall will be scattered, so don’t cancel any plans, but be aware of some passing rainfall Saturday night-Sunday & only isolated rainfall Saturday.

35-40% coverage of showers & t’storms will be with us Memorial Day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

I would keep plans, but have back-up for any passing shower/t’storm.  Hopefully, the warm front will continue to speed up & work through in the morning & push any rainfall out of the area by afternoon.  This is possible as a few models have hinted at it, but we will have to wait & see what the data holds tomorrow.

After the warm front passes, it will turn mostly sunny to partly cloudy, hot, humid & windy with several days in the 80s to lower 90s next week.

There will be a lot of severe weather west of here next week with tornadoes likely.

Front will move through next Saturday late in the day & into the night with potential of severe weather.

The front may tend to slip south of the area next Sunday, shutting off any rainfall.

However, there are signs the front may move north & sort of stall & wobble back & forth June 3-6.  This would bring 2-3 rounds of t’storms with a severe threat with one, if not all of the rounds.

Our low of 37 this morning at WLFI was the coldest low temperatures so late in the season at West Lafayette in 20 years.  June 1, 1993 dropped to 37 on June 1.

There have been 4 other occurrences since 1993 of the temperature dropping at or below 38 degrees after May 20.

It was a cold morning with lows in the 30s to around 40.  We dropped to 37 at WLFI & 36 at the Purdue Ag Farm in West Lafayette.

Strong warm front will approach& bring some scattered showers & a few t’storms Saturday night-Monday from time to time.

There will be dry hours in-between & rainfall coverage looks to run 30-35%.

Highs will run 65-70 Saturday & Sunday & 70-75 Monday.

Once warm front moves north, it will turn windy, hot & humid Tuesday-Saturday with highs of 85-90 eventually reaching 90-93 by Friday & Saturday.  Heat indices may run 92-98.

It looks dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies during this period, but severe weather threat is looking to arrive by late next Saturday-Saturday night.  This will occur after a lot of severe weather in the Plains from Colorado & Oklahome to North Dakota, Minnesota & Iowa Tuesday-Friday.

Violent EF5 tornadoes that obsolutely obliterate everything in their path are not new in their occurrence.  History has shown that this massive, violent twisters have been occurring with no uptick or downturn in trends (decade by decade) since the earliest records & reports have commenced in the United States.

Here is a list of those F5/EF5 twisters.  The 1952-current data comes from SPC.  Prior data is personal research per damage reports (with study of width & track length, as well) & classification by the National Weather Service.

1952-present (courtesy of SPC):

=================================================
NUMBER	DATE                    LOCATION
======	=====================   ===========================

59	May 20, 2013		Moore OK
58	May 24, 2011		El Reno/Piedmont OK
57	May 22, 2011		Joplin MO
56	April 27, 2011		Rainsville/Sylvania AL
55	April 27, 2011		Preston MS
54	April 27, 2011		Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL
53	April 27, 2011		Smithville MS
52	May 25, 2008		Parkersburg IA
51      May 4, 2007             Greensburg KS
50	May 3, 1999             Bridge Creek/Moore OK
49	April 16, 1998          Waynesboro TN
48	April 8, 1998           Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL
47	May 27, 1997            Jarrell TX
46	July 18, 1996           Oakfield WI
45	June 16, 1992           Chandler MN
44	April 26, 1991          Andover KS
43	August 28, 1990         Plainfield IL
42	March 13, 1990          Goessel KS
41	March 13, 1990          Hesston KS
40	May 31, 1985            Niles OH
39	June 7, 1984            Barneveld WI
38	April 2, 1982           Broken Bow OK
37	April 4, 1977           Birmingham AL
36	June 13, 1976           Jordan IA
35	April 19, 1976          Brownwood TX
34	March 26, 1976          Spiro OK
33	April 3, 1974           Guin AL 
32	April 3, 1974           Tanner AL 
31	April 3, 1974           Mt. Hope AL 
30	April 3, 1974           Sayler Park OH 
29	April 3, 1974           Brandenburg KY 
28	April 3, 1974           Xenia OH  
27	April 3, 1974           Daisy Hill IN  
26	May 6, 1973             Valley Mills TX
25	February 21, 1971       Delhi LA
24	May 11, 1970            Lubbock TX
23	June 13, 1968           Tracy MN
22	May 15, 1968            Maynard IA
21	May 15, 1968            Charles City IA
20	April 23, 1968          Gallipolis OH
19	October 14, 1966        Belmond IA
18	June 8, 1966            Topeka KS
17	March 3, 1966           Jackson MS
16	May 8, 1965             Gregory SD
15	May 5, 1964             Bradshaw NE
14	April 3, 1964           Wichita Falls TX
13	May 5, 1960             Prague OK
12	June 4, 1958            Menomonie WI
11	December 18, 1957       Murphysboro IL
10	June 20, 1957           Fargo ND
9	May 20, 1957            Ruskin Heights MO
8	April 3, 1956           Grand Rapids MI
7	May 25, 1955            Udall KS
6	May 25, 1955            Blackwell OK
5	December 5, 1953        Vicksburg MS
4	June 27, 1953           Adair IA
3	June 8, 1953            Flint MI
2	May 29, 1953            Ft. Rice ND
1	May 11, 1953            Waco TX

1821-1951

=================================================
NUMBER	DATE                    LOCATION
======	=====================   ===========================
62	September 26, 1951	Waupaca OK
61	May 31, 1947		Leedey OK 
60	April 9, 1947		Woodward OK 
59	April 12, 1945		Antlers OK 
58	June 14, 1944		Summit SD 
57	April 29, 1942		Oberlin KS 
56	April 28, 1942		Crowell TX 
55	March 16, 1942		Lacon IL
54      June 18, 1939           Anoka MN 
53	April 14, 1939          Vici OK/Kiowa KS 
52	June 10, 1938           Clyde TX 
51	April 26, 1938          Oshkosh NE 
50	April 5, 1936           Tupelo MS/Gainesville GA 
49	May 22, 1933            Tryon NE 
48	April 10, 1929          Sneed, AR 
47	May 7, 1927             McPherson KS 
46	April 12, 1927          Rock Springs TX 
45	June 3, 1925            Council Bluffs IA 
44	June 3, 1925            Logan IA 
43	March 18, 1925          Missouri-Illinois-Indiana
42	September 21, 1924      North-Central Wisconsin 
41	May 14, 1923            Big Spring TX
40	March 11, 1923          Pinson TN 
39	April 20, 1920          Northern AL
38	March 28, 1920          West Liberty IN/Van Wert OH 
37	June 22, 1919           Fergus Falls MN 
36	May 21, 1918            Denison IA  
35	May 21, 1918            Boone County IA  
34	May 25, 1917            Southern KS
33	June 11, 1915           Mullinville KS 
32	June 15, 1912           Creighton MO  
31	June 5, 1908            Carleton NE   
30	April 23, 1908          Pender NE  
29	June 5, 1905            Coling MI
28	May 10, 1905            Snyder OK 
27	June 12, 1899           New Richmond WI 
26	May 18, 1898            Marathon Co. WI 
25	May 25, 1896            Oakland Co. MI 
24	May 17, 1896            Northeast KS/Southeast NE 
23	May 15, 1896            Sherman TX 
22	May 3, 1895             Sioux Co. IA 
21	September 21, 1894      Northwest IA/Southeast MN 
20	July 6, 1893            Pomeroy IA 
19	May 22, 1893            Darlington WI 
18	June 15, 1892           Southern MN
17	April 1, 1884           Oakville IN (Delaware Co.)
16      March 25, 1884          Scipio IN (Jennings Co.)
15	August 21, 1883         Rochester MN 
14	June 17, 1882           Grinnell IA 
13	June 12, 1881           Hopkins MO 
12	April 24, 1880          Christian Co. IL 
11       May 30, 1879           Irving KS
10       May 30, 1879           Jackson Co. MO
9       May 22, 1873            Southeast IA
8	June 29, 1865           Viroqua WI 
7	June 3, 1860            Camanche IA 
6       June 13, 1857           Christian Co. IL
5	September 20, 1845      Northern NY to VT
4	June 5, 1844            Eastern IA to Northern IL
3	May 7, 1840             Natchez MS 
2       July 25, 1838           Alleghany Co. NY
2       May 18, 1825            Central OH
1       September 3, 1821       VT to Northeastern MA
============================================================

Our 8-day stretch of 80s came to an end yesterday with a high of 75.  Today’s 63 occurred at midnight with a morning-afternoon high of 61.  Lake front has dropped temperature from 61 to 53 quickly.

Our stretch of 80s in May was the longest since a 10-day stretch (May 22-31) in 2010 at West Lafayette.  Before that, 1998 had a similar, long, stretch with 8 consecutive days of 80s.

Spotty showers, chilly north winds & slowly-falling temperatures into the 50s area-wide will dominate today with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

Clearing will occur evening-tonight.  As “Blackberry Winter” & “Locust Winter” roll on, lows will drop to 38-41 area-wide.  Blackberry Winter is a period of cool weather where we see our last 40-45 temperature in late May to perhaps early June as the blackberries are in blossom.  Also referred to as Locust Winter, it is the last cool snap until September & often coincides with the last of the Black Locust trees.

Black Locust:

Blackberry:

It appears that no frost will be able to form in Jasper, Newton & Pulaski counties (where temperatures will be at 38) due to a high likelihood of a north breeze.

Regardless, it will be cold!

Tomorrow looks good with mostly sunny skies & 65-68 area-wide.  High & mid clouds will increase tomorrow night as warm front approaches, with lows in the 40s.

WLFI Video Blog Entry May 23, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

The very same low pressure system that produced wave after wave of severe weather over the last week is now located over the Great Lakes. While it will produce another chance of scattered rain today, its foremost effect will be our drop in temperature throughout the afternoon. Temperatures should peak during the late morning before winds shift northward and pick up speed. Our daytime temperature should top out right around 63°, but we’ll fall back to 59° by your lunch hour and even 54° by your evening commute. Wind gusts as strong as 30 mph will pull cool air off of Lake Michigan this evening and drop temperatures as low as 40° overnight. Wind chills tonight, yes wind chills, may be in the mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Alright now that we have all of that behind us, I can start talking about the unreal holiday weekend we have ahead of us! Higher pressure will move in overnight tonight and, while it’s going to be one of the major contributors to our cool down, it will also drive all of our overcast conditions out of the region. Grab the sunglasses on Friday, you’ll need them. Sunny skies will allow us to warm up into the the mid to upper 60s through the viewing area. A few more clouds are possible on Saturday as a weak warm front closes in on the central part of the state. It’s still going to be mostly sunny to partly cloud on Saturday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s. We’ll break into the 70s on race day and stay there for your Memorial Day. However, with that slow moving warm front, there may be a slight chance for rain during that later part of your holiday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return the forecast on Tuesday as the low sweeps to our north. The mercury will hit 82° that day before ascending to 85° on Wednesday.

Strong warm front with some showers/t’storms will pass Monday night-Tuesday.  Some data suggest even some showers trying to get in here earlier, but am not sold on that yet. 

After that, we will be bathed in heat & humidity with dry weather next week.  Highs of 90-93 are a good bet by later next week with lows of 70-72.  Humidity levels will cause heat indices to rise to 93-98.

A lot of severe weather will take place to our west & northwest late weekend through late next week.