Chad Evans

Frost In the Morning, But Warm, Dry Thursday

October 22nd, 2014 at 10:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Another night of frost is ahead.  Some patchy, shallow fog is also possible.  Lows will run 31-35.  Highs tomorrow will warm to 61-65.

High cirrus/mid clouds will increase.

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Partial Solar Eclipse Thursday Evening

October 22nd, 2014 at 3:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

42% of the sun will be obscured in a solar eclipse that will get underway around 5:38 p.m. tomorrow evening & last until 6:47 p.m. before the sun sets at 6:56 p.m.

Highs & mid clouds will be on the increase at this time.  The sun will tend to fade/dim as this occurs.  Thinking it may still be visible, but be increasingly blurry as you move westward.  It may be more & more visible with eastward movement.

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Low Temperatures This Morning

October 22nd, 2014 at 1:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We dropped to 33 at the station this morning with frost.  However, the Ag Farm did get to freezing, making it the first official West Lafayette freeze of the fall.  The airport bottomed out at 33.

Below are AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet & WLFI lows this morning:

DMA Map II

 


Freeze Climatology & Solar Eclipse Times for Thursday

October 21st, 2014 at 11:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

FREEZE CLIMATOLOGY & FORECAST………..

Some places have had their first 32 of the fall, but many have not.  Normally, this occurs October 4-13 with the far southwest seeing it around October 17.

Tonight we will drop to 33-36 across the viewing area with some frost.

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The latest occurrence of 32 on record varies from very early November to even late November.  In the 1879-present West Lafayette data, 1946 had the latest first freeze…….November 13.  However, Crawfordsville’s first freeze has occurred as late as November 23, with data back to 1887.

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The normal first occurrence of 28 is October 19-30 across the area.  I do see the first 28 arriving in early November.  This appears to be after a potentially potent system of rain/t’storms, perhaps even a QLCS squall line with severe threat in or near the area, passes through.

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THE THURSDAY EVENING SOLAR ECLIPSE…………….

Upwards of 42% of the sun will be obscured by a solar eclipse early Thursday evening.  Only issue will be cloud cover.  Lots of high & mid-level clouds will be moving in at that point & the sun will at least be dimmed.

The eclipse will run generally 5:38-6:47 p.m. area-wide.  Sunset is near 6:56 p.m.

Hopefully, we can thin the clouds out or make a big hole in the cloudiness to observe this great sight!  It is not overly-promising right now, but we will continue to hold out hope!

 

 


Outlook to November 15

October 21st, 2014 at 1:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOW-THURSDAY (OCTOBER 21-23)………….

Skies are mostly cloudy with brisk northerly to northwesterly winds.  A couple isolated showers/sprinkles still cannot be ruled out for this afternoon.  After 53-58 today, clearing skies later today with calming winds will lead to frost & 32-35 tonight.

Tomorrow looks mostly sunny & 56-62 with lighter winds, followed by 33-36 tomorrow night.

Clouds will increase Thursday late with 60-65.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY (OCTOBER 23/24-26)……………

Clipper will pass Thursday night-Friday morning with a few spotty showers, perhaps an isolated t’shower.  Highs Friday of 65-70 look good.

The weekend currently looks great with highs of 68-75 with lows of 44-49.  Skies look mostly sunny both days with Saturday featuring much lighter winds than Sunday.  Sunday southwest winds may gust to 32 mph in the afternoon.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY (OCTOBER 27-29)…………..

Monday looks windy & warm with highs of 71-76.

Another Alberta Clipper will pass Tuesday or Wednesday (exact timing is a bit blurry at the moment) with a few showers, perhaps an isolated t’storm or two.

OCTOBER 29-31…………

Following this clipper, dry, tranquil, mostly sunny to sunny weather will settle in for right up to Halloween.  Highs October 29-31 look to run in the 60s with lows of 37-41.  We could see 66-72 on Halloween, per current trends.

The first widespread, soaking rainfall in a while looks to arrive in early November.  This looks like a strong, dynamic system with very strong winds at all levels with impressive shear & a good, moist, warm, unstable airmass preceding a strong cold front & upper trough.

NOVEMBER 1-2………….

Data suggests highs on November 1 could be as high as 75 degrees with strong south to southwest winds up to 35 mph.

If current long-range trends hold, then a severe weather threat could develop from Illinois & Indiana to Arkansas & Mississippi late November 1 through November 2.  Dynamics/shear support typical November severe episode with a QLCS squall line.  This has the potential to be a widespread 1-2.5″ rainfall.

NOVEMBER 3-6………….

November 3-4 could see highs only in the 40s with lots of low, gray clouds with overnight lows near 32.

It appears that on the morning of November 4 or 5, with clear skies, a killing freeze could occur with lows of 25-28.

By November 6, southwest winds will return with a warm-up.

NOVEMBER 7-15………….

60s may return by November 8 (70 in some places?) with approach of what could be another pretty significant weather system of rain & t’storms.  After this one, lows of 20-25 could arrive near November 13-15.


Warm Day, But Cooler Tuesday Ahead (Frost Tomorrow Night)

October 20th, 2014 at 10:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a warm & windy day with highs of 65-70!  It has been clouding up this evening & we have even seen a few spotty showers.  A couple sprinkles/spotty showers cannot be ruled out for tonight.

Low clouds area-wide should turn the sky mostly cloudy tonight with lows at 45-50.

Tomorrow looks largely mostly cloudy, however, clearing is likely late in the day with highs of 53 in the northeast to 58 in the southwest.  56 looks good for Greater Lafayette.

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Tomorrow night is looking a bit colder.  Lows of 32-36 are likely with frost.

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Historic October 19-20, 1989 Snowstorm

October 20th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 19-20, 1989 brought a historic early-season snowfall to our area.  Up to 14.0″ of heavy, wet, gloppy snow fell at the Romney, Throckmorten Purdue Ag Farm site, per State Climate Office.  10.5″ fell at  Kokomo.  6.7″ fell at the Purdue University Airport with 6.0″ at the Purdue Agronomy Farm northwest of West Lafayette & 9.5″ at the city COOP site.  The heaviest band seemed to set up from Romney to Rossville to Kokomo.  10-14″ fell in that band with the greatest amount of tree damage reported.  This was the most significant October snowfall event before the 30th (across central & north-central Indiana) since the historically cold, snowy October of 1869 & the great October 1805 snow (when Native Americans were “frightened on account of it” & “never seen the like” at the White River fort).  8″ fell at Fort Wayne with the 1989 event, 12″ was measured in October 1805, according to diary at the White River fort.

October 19-20, 1989 an “Inside Runner” storm brought unseasonably early & heavy snowfall to the region.  Even with very warm temperatures (Purdue Agronomy Farm was 84° on October 15…….just 3° from the record high of 87 set in 1938!), snowfall intensity was such that accumulations of up to 10.5″ occurred.  Snowfall water content topped 1.80″ in places, meaning that if this storm would have occurred in the winter with a colder ground, 18″ could have accumulated.

Gusty winds steady at 15-25 with gusts to 35 mph resulted lots of tree damage across the region due to the weight of the snow on the foliated trees.  Power outages were widespread.

Interestingly, less than a week after the snowstorm, temperatures were in the upper 70s to around 80!  For example, Delphi hit 79° on October 24 after 7.0″ snow & highs only near 33° on October 19!  After 10.5″ of snowfall, Kokomo had a high of 76° on October 24!

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Indianapolis, Indiana:

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Warm, Windy Day!

October 20th, 2014 at 3:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful, warm, windy day!  Some readings are now at 70!  Cumulus are on the increase & skies will gradually go mostly cloudy with time this evening-tonight with time.  A couple sprinkles/showers are possible with the increasing clouds.  Temperatures will fall pretty quickly as the stratocu/cu move in.

Fall color should peak this week/next weekend!

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As of October 20, some of you have seen your first 32, but a lot of the area has not.  The left graphic show the normal first occurrence of 32 degrees in the fall.

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Clipper Moving Through

October 20th, 2014 at 12:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Spotty showers continue to pass through the eastern part of the viewing area, while the west is drying & clearing as our breezy Alberta Clipper zips through.  It is not out of the question that a couple of showers pop this evening as area of cumulus clouds pivots in on back side of system.  With the breezy to windy conditions, highs today will rise well into the 60s.

Looks like perhaps a couple sprinkles/showers Tuesday with statocumulus on back side of this clipper with another clipper with a few spotty showers Friday & another around October 29 with dry, pleasant weather with cool nights in-between.  Some patchy frost is possible on a couple of nights & tomorrow will not be as warm as today or late week.

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Outlook to November 5 & Signs of Seasonal Change

October 19th, 2014 at 8:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There is really no active weather on the way now-October 30.  There is a weak clipper late tonight/tomorrow & Thursday night/Friday with a couple of spotty showers & that is it.  There may be another clipper around the 29th.  Next good potential of more widespread rainfall is either at end of Halloween or in early November, followed by the first widespread freeze of the year.

In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures will dominate to the first of November.  After 34 this morning, this week will feature highs largely in the 60s with a couple of days in the upper 50s to around 60.

Friday will begin very nice warm-up with 62-68 then.  It is possible that we may reach 70 in parts of the area Saturday (66-71) & 68-75 in some next Sunday.  Overnight lows will be cool (still a couple nights this week with patchy frost at 35-38, regardless of relatively mild days), but with sun & warmth, soils will dry nicely for area farmers.

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Behavioral changes are evident in our bird life in response to shortening day length & approach of winter.  Some species only seen in fall & winter are returning now.

I saw the first “snowbirds” today (Dark-eyed Juncos).  They breed up north & migrate southward to winter in our area.  You will find them scratching around your bird feeders, in leaf litter around your house to around your lawn & woodland edges in fall & winter.  They like millet scattered on the ground at a feeder.

They have a distinctive of twittering call & expose the white on their tails when flushed.

This is the first time I have heard red-winged blackbirds in full call since July.  It is the first time I have seen them congregate in flocks since spring.  They do this as they make movements in the fall.  Most of our head south, residing in massive flocks in the marshes & agricultural fields of the southern U.S.

I noticed about a dozen Pied-billed Grebes at the lake in our neighborhood today.  This is a sign of the change to colder weather.  They usually stay in marshes with abundant vegetation & are seldom seen in spring & summer.  In the fall, they turn from the gray breeding plumage to more brown & tend to go to more open water areas & seem to congregate in pairs or groups of 3-5.  These small groups may make up one of several groups on a lake.

I observed about 6-8 Ruddy Ducks (most of them were females) on our lake in the neighborhood today.  Thing is Ruddy Duck do not breed here & don’t even winter here.  Why were they here?  They were passing through from their breeding grounds (prairie potholes of the Plains & mountain/basin lakes/ponds of the Rockies) to the marshes of the southern U.S.

The individuals that I saw today could have been from the Dakotas/Manitoba/Alberta on their way to the Carolinas or perhaps the oxbow lakes of the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.

I also spotted several buffleheads on the lake.  They are largely a Canadian species where they next around ponds/lakes of northern spruce forests with aspen & birch from Alaska & the Yukon to Ontario & Quebec.  They are only known to breed in the U.S. in northeast Minnesota, northeastern Washington & northern Idaho & in high-elevation lakes with fir & spruce in a few areas in the Rockies.

They winter in our area on ponds & lakes.  I frequently see flocks at Celery Bog in fall & winter.

These are the first of the season.

Lesser Scaups were noted.  I see these at the Bog & at our neighborhood lake in the fall.  They do not spend winter here, but only a brief fall period on their migration from Canada, Alaska & the northern Rockies/northern Plains to the southern U.S., Mississippi Valley to Mexico & the Caribbean.

This bird is also found natively in Eurasia.