Chad Evans

The Latest Now-November 20 Outlook

October 24th, 2014 at 1:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-SUNDAY……………

Clipper will pass tonight-Saturday morning with a few spotty showers.  Otherwise, Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs of 69-75.  Sunday looks great with sunny skies & highs of 67-73.

MONDAY-THURSDAY (OCTOBER 27-30)…………..

Strong winds will arrive Sunday night-Monday morning with gusts to 30 mph, followed by gusts to 40 mph Monday afternoon.  This kind of wind will put the kibosh on the peak fall color.

Skies look mostly sunny & it will be warm!  Highs of 75-80 are likely with lows only in the lower 60s Monday night.  The normal high is around 56!

Another Alberta Clipper will pass Tuesday morning-midday with a few showers, perhaps an isolated t’storm.  Clearing is likely in the afternoon with windy conditions (gusts to 32 mph from the west & northwest) with highs of 65-70.

Wednesday look cooler, but still nice with mostly sunny skies highs of 58-64 & lows of 35-40.

Thursday looks mostly sunny, as well, with highs of 58-64.

FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)-MONDAY (NOVEMBER  3)……………

There are indications that a clipper will pass through Friday morning with a few showers.  It looks to then be followed by low clouds & strong northwest winds to 35 mph Friday afternoon-evening with highs of 55-60.  However, there are indication that the temperatures may fall later in the day into the 48-53 range.

The latest data is consistent on two things: 1) the first 20s of the year in early November & 2) a strong, more moisture-laiden storm system with warmth, lots of wind & perhaps a QLCS severe squall line either very near our area or in it.

However, what look different now is the timing of these two impactful weather scenarios.

Latest guidance is suggestive of the 20s arriving FIRST, THEN the strong system with quick recovery of warm, moist air from cold, dry air arriving from Canada.

This said, it appears that strong surface high will bring sunny to mostly sunny next weekend.  However, it will be cooler with highs of 50-55.  With completely clear, calm conditions, it appears that Sunday morning, November 2, will be the coldest morning so far this season with a widespread, heavy, killing frost with lows of 25-28.

Strong southwest winds to 35 mph appear to come back in Monday with mostly sunny skies & highs surging into the 60s.  This looks to precede a strong storm system that I allude to below:

NOVEMBER 4-5………….

November 4 looks mostly sunny, windy & warm with highs in the 60s to perhaps even 70 in places.  With unusually warm overnights in the 50s, the 5th looks warm, too with 60s to perhaps even 70 with strong southwest winds to 35 mph.  At this point, strong surface low will be located over eastern Kansas with line of severe t’storms possible from southwest Iowa to Texas.

Tuesday night-Wednesday morning looks very warm with low stratus & strong southwest winds.  We may not even drop below 58 or 60.

At this point, strong surface low may be located over central Iowa with storms from northwest Illinois to Texas.

By Wednesday afternoon-evening, the surface low will be weakening & in occlusion over northwestern Wisconsin after bottoming out at perhaps 991 mb.

At this point, band/line of heavy rain/storms may be found with the surface cold front from Michigan, all the way to Texas.  1-2″ of rainfall seems reasonable from this feature for our area with potential severe threat either here or just west & southwest of our area.

If current long-range trends hold, then a severe weather threat could develop from Illinois & Indiana to Arkansas & Mississippi late November 1 through November 2.  Dynamics/shear support typical November severe episode with a QLCS squall line.  This has the potential to be a widespread 1-2.5″ rainfall.

NOVEMBER 6-7………….

Tranquil weather may return November 6-7 with rapid warm-up after brief cool-down.

NOVEMBER 7-17………….

60s may return by November 8 (70 in some areas?) with approach of what could be another pretty significant weather system of rain & t’storms.  After this one, lows of 18-24 could arrive near November 13-15.

There is a trend for a period of below-normal temperatures with perhaps even a few flurries during this time to about November 17 (highs 30s to lower 40s) as unusually warm weather occurs Alaska to the Yukon while cold, cold weather moves into the northern & central Plains.

NOVEMBER 17-20…………

Warm-up trend is observed as large upper ridge with above-normal temperatures engulfs the northern & central Plains & below-normal temperatures come into Alaska.

This time looks dry while the first rainy system of the year for southern California may arrive.  This is great news, but it is a drop in the bucket in terms of the major drought underway.  Looks like it could have a pretty deep subtropical connection to Hawaii “Pineapple Express” as we see the Madden-Julian Oscillation begin to show.

NOVEMBER 21-25…………..

Overall, it is safe to say that mild pattern may hold until that potential California system affects us.  All other details so far out are blurry at best with no strong signal seen to go on.  We will watch its storm track.


Eclipse Pictures & the Latest Outlook to Late Next Week

October 23rd, 2014 at 11:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Check out the pics of this evening’s eclipse!  The high/mid clouds made it more difficult to view,  especially in our western half.

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A few showers are possible tonight-early Friday morning & Friday night-early Saturday morning with largely mostly clear, warm conditions in-between.  Highs tomorrow will run 63-68 with 66-73 Saturday.  Highs of 66-72 look good for Sunday with mostly sunny skies.

With mostly sunny skies, howling southwest winds to 40 mph & the arrival of airmass that will bring record heat/warmth this weekend to the Plains, 76 is easily attainable (went for 74-77) Monday.  Some data suggests a few locations will hit 80.  We will watch.

A few showers & t’storms are possible Tuesday with highs of 65-72.

After this, Wednesday-Friday looks mostly sunny with highs of 60-65 & lows of 35-40.


Low Temperatures This Morning

October 23rd, 2014 at 1:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Thanks to Bill Border for this pic of juvenile bluebirds, which hatched this summer.  He says they are still hanging around their place, eating the mealworms they put out.  Notice they are just starting to acquire some of the blue adult plumage, but the spots on the breast show they are still a bit young.

Putting mealworms out on a platform feeder or in a bowl attracts bluebirds very, very well.

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AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet & WLFI low temperatures this morning:

DMA Map II


Frost In the Morning, But Warm, Dry Thursday

October 22nd, 2014 at 10:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Another night of frost is ahead.  Some patchy, shallow fog is also possible.  Lows will run 31-35.  Highs tomorrow will warm to 61-65.

High cirrus/mid clouds will increase.

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Partial Solar Eclipse Thursday Evening

October 22nd, 2014 at 3:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

42% of the sun will be obscured in a solar eclipse that will get underway around 5:38 p.m. tomorrow evening & last until 6:47 p.m. before the sun sets at 6:56 p.m.

Highs & mid clouds will be on the increase at this time.  The sun will tend to fade/dim as this occurs.  Thinking it may still be visible, but be increasingly blurry as you move westward.  It may be more & more visible with eastward movement.

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Low Temperatures This Morning

October 22nd, 2014 at 1:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We dropped to 33 at the station this morning with frost.  However, the Ag Farm did get to freezing, making it the first official West Lafayette freeze of the fall.  The airport bottomed out at 33.

Below are AWOS/ASOS, Mesonet & WLFI lows this morning:

DMA Map II

 


Freeze Climatology & Solar Eclipse Times for Thursday

October 21st, 2014 at 11:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

FREEZE CLIMATOLOGY & FORECAST………..

Some places have had their first 32 of the fall, but many have not.  Normally, this occurs October 4-13 with the far southwest seeing it around October 17.

Tonight we will drop to 33-36 across the viewing area with some frost.

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The latest occurrence of 32 on record varies from very early November to even late November.  In the 1879-present West Lafayette data, 1946 had the latest first freeze…….November 13.  However, Crawfordsville’s first freeze has occurred as late as November 23, with data back to 1887.

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The normal first occurrence of 28 is October 19-30 across the area.  I do see the first 28 arriving in early November.  This appears to be after a potentially potent system of rain/t’storms, perhaps even a QLCS squall line with severe threat in or near the area, passes through.

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THE THURSDAY EVENING SOLAR ECLIPSE…………….

Upwards of 42% of the sun will be obscured by a solar eclipse early Thursday evening.  Only issue will be cloud cover.  Lots of high & mid-level clouds will be moving in at that point & the sun will at least be dimmed.

The eclipse will run generally 5:38-6:47 p.m. area-wide.  Sunset is near 6:56 p.m.

Hopefully, we can thin the clouds out or make a big hole in the cloudiness to observe this great sight!  It is not overly-promising right now, but we will continue to hold out hope!

 

 


Outlook to November 15

October 21st, 2014 at 1:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOW-THURSDAY (OCTOBER 21-23)………….

Skies are mostly cloudy with brisk northerly to northwesterly winds.  A couple isolated showers/sprinkles still cannot be ruled out for this afternoon.  After 53-58 today, clearing skies later today with calming winds will lead to frost & 32-35 tonight.

Tomorrow looks mostly sunny & 56-62 with lighter winds, followed by 33-36 tomorrow night.

Clouds will increase Thursday late with 60-65.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY (OCTOBER 23/24-26)……………

Clipper will pass Thursday night-Friday morning with a few spotty showers, perhaps an isolated t’shower.  Highs Friday of 65-70 look good.

The weekend currently looks great with highs of 68-75 with lows of 44-49.  Skies look mostly sunny both days with Saturday featuring much lighter winds than Sunday.  Sunday southwest winds may gust to 32 mph in the afternoon.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY (OCTOBER 27-29)…………..

Monday looks windy & warm with highs of 71-76.

Another Alberta Clipper will pass Tuesday or Wednesday (exact timing is a bit blurry at the moment) with a few showers, perhaps an isolated t’storm or two.

OCTOBER 29-31…………

Following this clipper, dry, tranquil, mostly sunny to sunny weather will settle in for right up to Halloween.  Highs October 29-31 look to run in the 60s with lows of 37-41.  We could see 66-72 on Halloween, per current trends.

The first widespread, soaking rainfall in a while looks to arrive in early November.  This looks like a strong, dynamic system with very strong winds at all levels with impressive shear & a good, moist, warm, unstable airmass preceding a strong cold front & upper trough.

NOVEMBER 1-2………….

Data suggests highs on November 1 could be as high as 75 degrees with strong south to southwest winds up to 35 mph.

If current long-range trends hold, then a severe weather threat could develop from Illinois & Indiana to Arkansas & Mississippi late November 1 through November 2.  Dynamics/shear support typical November severe episode with a QLCS squall line.  This has the potential to be a widespread 1-2.5″ rainfall.

NOVEMBER 3-6………….

November 3-4 could see highs only in the 40s with lots of low, gray clouds with overnight lows near 32.

It appears that on the morning of November 4 or 5, with clear skies, a killing freeze could occur with lows of 25-28.

By November 6, southwest winds will return with a warm-up.

NOVEMBER 7-15………….

60s may return by November 8 (70 in some places?) with approach of what could be another pretty significant weather system of rain & t’storms.  After this one, lows of 20-25 could arrive near November 13-15.


Warm Day, But Cooler Tuesday Ahead (Frost Tomorrow Night)

October 20th, 2014 at 10:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a warm & windy day with highs of 65-70!  It has been clouding up this evening & we have even seen a few spotty showers.  A couple sprinkles/spotty showers cannot be ruled out for tonight.

Low clouds area-wide should turn the sky mostly cloudy tonight with lows at 45-50.

Tomorrow looks largely mostly cloudy, however, clearing is likely late in the day with highs of 53 in the northeast to 58 in the southwest.  56 looks good for Greater Lafayette.

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Tomorrow night is looking a bit colder.  Lows of 32-36 are likely with frost.

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Historic October 19-20, 1989 Snowstorm

October 20th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

October 19-20, 1989 brought a historic early-season snowfall to our area.  Up to 14.0″ of heavy, wet, gloppy snow fell at the Romney, Throckmorten Purdue Ag Farm site, per State Climate Office.  10.5″ fell at  Kokomo.  6.7″ fell at the Purdue University Airport with 6.0″ at the Purdue Agronomy Farm northwest of West Lafayette & 9.5″ at the city COOP site.  The heaviest band seemed to set up from Romney to Rossville to Kokomo.  10-14″ fell in that band with the greatest amount of tree damage reported.  This was the most significant October snowfall event before the 30th (across central & north-central Indiana) since the historically cold, snowy October of 1869 & the great October 1805 snow (when Native Americans were “frightened on account of it” & “never seen the like” at the White River fort).  8″ fell at Fort Wayne with the 1989 event, 12″ was measured in October 1805, according to diary at the White River fort.

October 19-20, 1989 an “Inside Runner” storm brought unseasonably early & heavy snowfall to the region.  Even with very warm temperatures (Purdue Agronomy Farm was 84° on October 15…….just 3° from the record high of 87 set in 1938!), snowfall intensity was such that accumulations of up to 10.5″ occurred.  Snowfall water content topped 1.80″ in places, meaning that if this storm would have occurred in the winter with a colder ground, 18″ could have accumulated.

Gusty winds steady at 15-25 with gusts to 35 mph resulted lots of tree damage across the region due to the weight of the snow on the foliated trees.  Power outages were widespread.

Interestingly, less than a week after the snowstorm, temperatures were in the upper 70s to around 80!  For example, Delphi hit 79° on October 24 after 7.0″ snow & highs only near 33° on October 19!  After 10.5″ of snowfall, Kokomo had a high of 76° on October 24!

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Indianapolis, Indiana:

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