Clipper will pass tonight-Saturday morning with a few spotty showers. Otherwise, Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs of 69-75. Sunday looks great with sunny skies & highs of 67-73.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (OCTOBER 27-30)…………..
Strong winds will arrive Sunday night-Monday morning with gusts to 30 mph, followed by gusts to 40 mph Monday afternoon. This kind of wind will put the kibosh on the peak fall color.
Skies look mostly sunny & it will be warm! Highs of 75-80 are likely with lows only in the lower 60s Monday night. The normal high is around 56!
Another Alberta Clipper will pass Tuesday morning-midday with a few showers, perhaps an isolated t’storm. Clearing is likely in the afternoon with windy conditions (gusts to 32 mph from the west & northwest) with highs of 65-70.
Wednesday look cooler, but still nice with mostly sunny skies highs of 58-64 & lows of 35-40.
Thursday looks mostly sunny, as well, with highs of 58-64.
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)-MONDAY (NOVEMBER 3)……………
There are indications that a clipper will pass through Friday morning with a few showers. It looks to then be followed by low clouds & strong northwest winds to 35 mph Friday afternoon-evening with highs of 55-60. However, there are indication that the temperatures may fall later in the day into the 48-53 range.
The latest data is consistent on two things: 1) the first 20s of the year in early November & 2) a strong, more moisture-laiden storm system with warmth, lots of wind & perhaps a QLCS severe squall line either very near our area or in it.
However, what look different now is the timing of these two impactful weather scenarios.
Latest guidance is suggestive of the 20s arriving FIRST, THEN the strong system with quick recovery of warm, moist air from cold, dry air arriving from Canada.
This said, it appears that strong surface high will bring sunny to mostly sunny next weekend. However, it will be cooler with highs of 50-55. With completely clear, calm conditions, it appears that Sunday morning, November 2, will be the coldest morning so far this season with a widespread, heavy, killing frost with lows of 25-28.
Strong southwest winds to 35 mph appear to come back in Monday with mostly sunny skies & highs surging into the 60s. This looks to precede a strong storm system that I allude to below:
November 4 looks mostly sunny, windy & warm with highs in the 60s to perhaps even 70 in places. With unusually warm overnights in the 50s, the 5th looks warm, too with 60s to perhaps even 70 with strong southwest winds to 35 mph. At this point, strong surface low will be located over eastern Kansas with line of severe t’storms possible from southwest Iowa to Texas.
Tuesday night-Wednesday morning looks very warm with low stratus & strong southwest winds. We may not even drop below 58 or 60.
At this point, strong surface low may be located over central Iowa with storms from northwest Illinois to Texas.
By Wednesday afternoon-evening, the surface low will be weakening & in occlusion over northwestern Wisconsin after bottoming out at perhaps 991 mb.
At this point, band/line of heavy rain/storms may be found with the surface cold front from Michigan, all the way to Texas. 1-2″ of rainfall seems reasonable from this feature for our area with potential severe threat either here or just west & southwest of our area.
If current long-range trends hold, then a severe weather threat could develop from Illinois & Indiana to Arkansas & Mississippi late November 1 through November 2. Dynamics/shear support typical November severe episode with a QLCS squall line. This has the potential to be a widespread 1-2.5″ rainfall.
Tranquil weather may return November 6-7 with rapid warm-up after brief cool-down.
60s may return by November 8 (70 in some areas?) with approach of what could be another pretty significant weather system of rain & t’storms. After this one, lows of 18-24 could arrive near November 13-15.
There is a trend for a period of below-normal temperatures with perhaps even a few flurries during this time to about November 17 (highs 30s to lower 40s) as unusually warm weather occurs Alaska to the Yukon while cold, cold weather moves into the northern & central Plains.
Warm-up trend is observed as large upper ridge with above-normal temperatures engulfs the northern & central Plains & below-normal temperatures come into Alaska.
This time looks dry while the first rainy system of the year for southern California may arrive. This is great news, but it is a drop in the bucket in terms of the major drought underway. Looks like it could have a pretty deep subtropical connection to Hawaii “Pineapple Express” as we see the Madden-Julian Oscillation begin to show.
Overall, it is safe to say that mild pattern may hold until that potential California system affects us. All other details so far out are blurry at best with no strong signal seen to go on. We will watch its storm track.