Chad Evans

Latest On Clipper, Upcoming Snow Event (Winter Storm?) & Second Clipper

January 29th, 2015 at 12:05 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Clipper will pass tonight-tomorrow with some scattered rain showers.  These will end as snow/sleet showers tomorrow with 36-43, then falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Winds will be strong with gusts as high as 35 mph from the west & northwest.

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Looks like Sunday-Monday system is speeding up.

Snow could move in by Saturday night & last through Sunday before ending Sunday night or early Monday morning.

This system will have plenty of moisture & a very broad area of lift with snow banding features north of the surface low & in the deformation zone on the northwest quadrant of the system.

The snow looks wet & sticky Saturday night-Sunday, before turning fluffy & light before ending as Arctic air moves in.

Winds may gust from the east & northeast 30-35 mph during the snow, perhaps.  After the snow ends, winds may gust to 40 mph from the north & northwest.

In terms of accumulation, 5-8″ still seems to be a reasonable early trend.  There will likely be a +8″ band, but it is unclear where that will set up.  Looks like Kansas & Missouri right now, but that is subject to change & this forecast in general is subject to tweaks as new data pours in.

This is still several days out, so there will likely be fine-tuning to this forecast.

Clipper after system may dump 1-3″ of snowfall Tuesday.

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Still looks like warm-up near Valentine’s Day will be followed by secondary brief Arctic Blast.

A nice warm-up for a few days is possible late February.


Snowfall Sunday-Monday

January 28th, 2015 at 8:42 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Warm air advection is already overspreading area on this frosty morning with temperatures on the rise.  A meltdown is likely today with highs of 36-41.

Windy weather with scattered rain to snow showers is likely tomorrow, per early a.m. data with highs of 36-43, then falling temperatures into the lower 30s.

It still looks like potential 5-8″ snow Sunday-early Monday with strong winds at end of the system & following it as Arctic air roars in.

Given the Super Bowl parties for Sunday evening-night, stay tuned for updates.

It also still looks like potential 1-3″ snow with clipper a day or two after with gusty winds.

The colder, snowier pattern will hold on before moderating around Valentine’s Day.  I still think another shot of cold air may follow after brief break followed by nice warm-up in late February.


Outlook to February 25

January 28th, 2015 at 12:34 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY…………….

After light freezing fog, frost & lows in the single digits to around 10 tonight, highs of 34-40 are likely for Wednesday.  Clouds will be on the increase with skies going partly cloudy.

Wind will increase from the southeast & south-southeast at 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT……………

By Wednesday night, skies will go cloudy.  Temperatures may drop to 32-35 in the evening, but a rise to 36-41 is likely by early Thursday morning as some scattered showers arrive.  Winds will turn southerly & south-southwesterly at 15-30 mph.

The highs of 37-43 will likely be Thursday morning to perhaps as late as midday, followed by falling temperatures into the lower & middle 30s.  Scattered rain showers may end as scattered snow showers late afternoon-evening to Thursday night.  Any accumulation would be patchy & very minor, it appears.

Winds of 20-40 mph are likely Thursday-Thursday night from southwest early Thursday, before turning westerly by midday, then northwesterly in the afternoon & evening.

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…………….

After teens Thursday night, skies look partly to mostly cloudy Friday with highs in the 25-30 range.  It still looks windy even into Friday with north-northwest winds of 20-35 mph.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday, lows in the teens early (winds will go light Friday night) will give way to highs in the 26-32 range.  It looks rather breezy with south-southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Skies will likely go overcast Saturday night with lows in the 20s with south-southwest winds at 5-10 mph going east-southeast at 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY-MONDAY……………….

It looks as if snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the morning Sunday with temperatures in the upper 20s.  East-southeast winds look to run 5-10 mph.

In the afternoon, winds may go east, then east-northeast & increase to 15-25 mph with temperatures around 30 with widespread snow.

Sunday evening-night winds looks strong with northeast winds at 20-30 mph 7 p.m. to 12 a.m. going northerly at 25-40 mph.  A temperature drop from around 28 to 11 may occur between 7 p.m. & 7 a.m.

At the moment, it looks as if a 5-8″ snow MAY be in the offing.  HOWEVER, this is far out.  We will continue to monitor.

Blowing & drifting will become a significant issue Sunday evening-night-Monday with these expected winds.

The snow may taper by Monday afternoon, but temperatures will struggle to get to the mid & perhaps upper teens.  Northwest winds at 20-40 mph will make for a rough day.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY…………..

If we clear out next Monday night, we could easily drop below zero with wind chills to -20.  Right now, I have gone with single digits.

Tuesday is looking colder.  At this point, 12 may be generous.  Some data suggests highs in single digits, even 0.  I went ahead with near 12 for now.

NEXT WEDNESDAY…………….

A brief clipper may bring minor snowfall accumulation & highs in the 20s Wednesday.  At this point, 1-3″ MAY occur.  Winds may gust from the southwest & west to 30 mph with it.

NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY…………..

Low temperatures may drop below zero & highs may struggle to get to 12.

I would not be surprised to see -15 in some places.

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FEBRUARY 6-7………..

Another clipper is possible with perhaps a minor 1-2″ snow.  Winds look pretty strong with it with gusts to 30 mph.

FEBRUARY 8-9…………

We may have some accumulating snowfall at this time, but it looks minor at the moment.  There could be mix/icing with this system, too.

FEBRUARY 10-14…………

Temperatures look to moderate as we approach Valentine’s Day.  In fact, I would be surprised to see us get to the 40-50 range over the viewing area near Valentine’s Day with perhaps some rain & a big meltdown of the snowpack.

FEBRUARY 15-18………

There are signs of a shot of very cold air blasting in after Valentine’s Day.  During cold snap, precipitation looks above normal, so it is conceivable that we may have another snow.

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FEBRUARY 19-25……..

Following the burst of cold, it really looks towards a trend of a pretty strong subtropical ridge will develop from Virginia to Tennessee to Texas with spring-like temperatures.

My thinking is that this may overspread our area for a couple days in late February with a couple of spring-like days in the 50s to perhaps lower 60s.

I also think that this brief spurt of warmth may end with rain here & perhaps a severe weather event in the southern U.S.

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The January with Record Cold & Warmth In Same Month…….36″ of Snow Reported In Massachusetts

January 27th, 2015 at 9:48 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

January 1864 featured a very cold first half of the month with one of the coldest days ever recorded in our area.  The high on January 1 was -16 with low at -26.  The low of -26 would beat the modern 1879-present record of -19 in 1968.  The high of -16 would easily be the coldest New Year’s Day on record.

Snow fell on several days early in the month after the December 31-January 1 blizzard with howling winds, deadly wind chills & heavy snow.

By late month, pattern completely changed with 3 days in the 60s with 65 & 66 on January 27 & 28.  This would beat the modern-day 1879-present record highs of 64 in 1916 & 2002.

This has happened in January before, but it is rare.   In January 1970, a record low of -10 was recorded on January 9, but a record high of 63 occurred on January 29.

In December 1989, record cold occurred mid to late December.  Mid January 1990 had record warmth with 64 on January 16 & 61 on January 17.

On a side note of flip-flop patterns……….mid January 1932 saw record warmth here with 66 on January 14.  However, January 14, 1932 saw 2″ of snow fall on downtown Los Angeles with a trace at the Los Angeles International Airport.  The 2″ at the Civic Center was the greatest snowfall on record for Los Angeles, in a city that may go 10 years without dipping to 32.

This shows that a deep trough with unusual cold in the West usually means ridging in the East.

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The great Los Angeles snow of 1932:

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Worcester County, Massachusetts is now reporting 36″ of snowfall from Nor’Easter.  Storm almost has hurricane-like eye to it.

33.2″ of snowfall was reported at 7:19 p.m. from Nashua, New Hampshire.

Even in northeastern Maine, 20.3″ with drifts over 6 feet have been reported in Washington County.

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Nor’Easter Reports……….Clearing Skies Here

January 27th, 2015 at 4:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Selection of reports from major Nor’Easter……..cut-off of really bad conditions was about Queens, New York.  It was not as bad with westward extend, but downright historic with eastward extent:

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Here, skies are clearing nicely!  Be aware of black ice, frosty conditions & at least some freezing fog overnight.  Lows will tank to single digits to near 10.


Latest Update

January 27th, 2015 at 1:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

29″ of snow has been reported from Suffolk County, New York with 30″ at Framingham, Massachusetts.  Gusts have been has high as 78 mph in southeast Massachusetts.

It is still a winter storm, but conditions are not as bad with westward progression through southwest New York & into New Jersey.

Snowfall totals here from last night:

DMA Map II

Any flurries will end & skies will gradually clear today from northeast to southwest & be mostly clear tonight.  Some freezing fog is possible with frosty conditions & lows in the single digits to around 10.

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Mid 30s will arrive tomorrow followed by 32, then rising to 38 tomorrow night with scattered rain showers arriving.  Scattered rain showers may end as scattered snow showers Thursday with a high near 40, then falling into the 30s.

Winds will run from the south-southeast 10-15 mph Wednesday & 15-30 mph Wednesday night from the south.  Thursday, sustained winds of 20-25 mph & gusts of 35-40 mph are likely.  Southerly winds will go southwesterly with time & westerly by evening.

20s will dominate Friday-Sunday.

Accumulating snowfall is still possible Sunday-Monday.

Highs may only run 15-21 with lows in the single digits.

Some lows may drop below zero next week.

 


Latest Outlook

January 26th, 2015 at 10:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Nor’Easter isn’t just bringing historic blizzard from around NYC to Maine, but also a squall line of severe t’storms over the island of Bermuda.

The island is in the middle of the radar image with an “+” showing location of Hamilton, Bermuda, the capitol of the island.

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Clipper will continue to work through tonight with light snow mixed with freezing drizzle (mainly western 2/3 of viewing area) before tapering to flurries.  Low of 16-21 are likely.

1″ or less of snowfall accumulation is likely with trace amounts of freezing drizzle.

Next clipper will bring scattered rain showers, ending as snow showers Wednesday night-Thursday.  Any accumulations look very minor.

Other system to watch is upper low east of Hawaii, which may bring accumulating snowfall Sunday-Monday.

Colder, snowier pattern is definitely in store as we end January & move into February.  Pattern is also conducive to Nor’Easters with one already, a major one tonight-tomorrow & perhaps another down the road (though not major).

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Light Snow & Even Some Freezing Drizzle

January 26th, 2015 at 9:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

4.6″ of snow has already fallen in Massachusetts with strong winds gusting to 37 mph at Boston, 44 mph Plymouth & around 50 mph at Nantucket.  Storm really doesn’t have its act together yet.  It will with merger of our clipper late tonight-tomorrow.

Areas of light snow continue to move southeastward through the viewing area.  We have had a very light dusting of powdered sugar snow pellets here at the station.  It has put a thin little veneer on roadways that were cleared today.

Additional light snow is moving into our northwestern counties & a mass of light snow is moving toward our area out of the Chicago & Milwaukee to Gary areas.

Additionally, on the western edge of the light snow, areas of freezing drizzle are developing.

1″ or less of snow is likely overnight with some thin icing from period of freezing drizzle or mix of freezing drizzle with the snow.  Looking at trends & forecast soundings, I think it is completely reasonable to assume that freezing drizzle may occur as far east as Winamac, Delphi, Flora to Frankfort, now.

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Tracking Clipper……….Light Snow & Some Freezing Drizzle

January 26th, 2015 at 5:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Clipper is moving in & light snow will continue to overspread area this evening with 1″ or less.

Part of it is evaporating  before it hits the ground at the moment, but it is reaching the ground with westward progression.

It is this clipper that will gell with Nor’Easter to really cause it to blow up into the historic blizzard.

There is the potential of a period some freezing drizzle mixing in this evening-tonight along & west of U.S. 41.

We need to continue to monitor this.

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Coldest Day Since January 14……..Clipper with Some Snow Moving In

January 26th, 2015 at 2:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Snowfall varied from trace to 4.2″ in the, per COOP, CoCo, WLFI spotter reports.  The widespread 4-6″ amounts fell from far eastern Indiana, through Ohio.

Looks like system had a bit of a jog more easterly, which cut totals in our northwest/northern counties, as well as our southwestern counties.

Snowfall totals from yesterday-last night:

DMA Map I

With a high today of just 26, so far, it is the coldest day since January 14, when the high was 15.

Clipper is moving in.  Snow is evaporating before it hits the ground on the leading edge, but once it does reach the ground, snow should with with us into the evening, before tapering tonight.  However, it think some scattered flurries will still be possible tonight-tomorrow.

Totals accumulations of 1″ or less are likely.