Chad Evans

1:30 A.M. Update

March 3rd, 2015 at 1:41 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Precipitation is blossoming rapidly over the region as a mix of sleet, snow & freezing rain.

It is currently virga over our area now, but as it continue to rapidly develop, we will be getting some sleet/snow/freezing rain soon.  It is already falling in Illinois.

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10:32 P.M. Update

March 2nd, 2015 at 10:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Icy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain is developing to our west.

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Sleet/snow/freezing rain mixture will turn more to largely freezing rain with time late tonight-tomorrow morning.

125DMA Map II

 


The Latest On Icing Tonight-Tomorrow Noon, Rain Tomorrow………& Winter Storm South of Here Wednesday-Wednesday Night

March 2nd, 2015 at 4:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Sleet/snow & freezing rain will overspread area after midnight.

It will tend to go to all freezing rain with time.  By noon tomorrow, ice accumulations will have occurred.

DMA Map II

Rain is likely from through the afternoon & evening before ending perhaps briefly as snow/sleet tomorrow night.

Rises in creeks & streams & ponding/flooding of low-lying areas is possible.  Ponding is possible on streets as many drains are clogged with slush & snow.

Strong, gusty southerly winds tomorrow may gust to 30-40 mph at times.

Wabash will at least rise to flood stage & may exceed it mid to late week.

Local, minor ice jamming is possible.

DMA Map III

A significant winter storm will affect areas south of our Wednesday-Wednesday night.  It may dump 10″ in Kentucky with ice to northern Mississippi & Alabama.

It appears this will stay south of our area, but it bears watching.  It could shift northward with minor snowfall into part of the area.

This will be followed by a very cold Thursday with highs in the teens & lows near 0, if not below that, Thursday night.


An Interesting Drought……..Snowfall Totals……..Forecast to Thursday

March 2nd, 2015 at 11:58 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Interestingly, the Tornado Watch issued late last week for northern Florida & Georgia was one for the record books!  According to Patrick Marsh at SPC, between its issuance & last watch issued was the longest period of time WITHOUT any convective watch in the U.S. since 1986!  Talk about a severe weather drought.  There has also been an overall lack of tornadoes since 2011 after a record year then.  So, the U.S. is also in a tornado drought.

According to my great friend & colleague, Tyler Snider at the University of Oklahoma, if we would have gone through all of February without a watch, it would have been a first!  We almost did!

The U.S. has been dominated by continental polar air from Canada with a trough in the east & warm, dry air will upper ridging in the west, proving hostile to much t’storm activity, let alone any severe weather.

5-9″ of snow covered most of the area, except in the far north where 3-5″ fell.  The heaviest totals occurred in southeastern Tippecanoe to Clinton & far southwestern Carroll counties with 9-10″ consistently measured.  There were a couple of isolated 9″ totals in Howard & Tipton counties, too.

The 5-9″ covered a larger area than expected.  I figured it would focus along 24, southward to West Lafayette with 3-5″.  The far north forecast worked out well & the 5-9″ in that zone worked well, but totals were higher in the south.  The heaviest band was more along 28, than between 24 & 52.

Looking back, it looks like a larger area of lift than expected with more moisture via stronger low-level jet & multiple zone of intense frontgenetical forcing a bit more south due to the cold being further entrenched.  Really, overall looking at all the factors, it was a domino effect of the cold being entrenched longer.  Temperature was 23 & not 31 early Sunday morning with the warmth having a hard time making it to the surface.

Snowfall totals from NWS COOP, CoCo, WLFI/NWS Spotters:

DMA Map IIDMA Map II

Tonight, sleet, then freezing rain is likely after midnight.  Icing of up to 0.10″ is possible in the Lafayette area with up to 0.25″ in the northeast.  Less than 0.10″ of ice is likely in the southwestern areas.  A dusting of sleet is possible.

Ice should change to all rain by noon tomorrow with strong, gusty southerly winds.

Rain will continue through the afternoon to tomorrow night, before ending perhaps as a bit of snow/sleet.

Significant flooding is not expected, but ponding from clogged drains & rises in creeks & streams is likely.  The Wabash may rise above flood stage late week.  Some local ice jamming is possible, but nothing like last year.

It looks like highs of 38 in the north to 47 in the south.

Winter storm may dump ice & snow from Texas to Kentucky & southern Indiana Wednesday-Wednesday night.  Icing could occur as far south as northern Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama to Georgia.

This looks to stay south of our area, but we will continue to monitor for any changes.

Thursday could be the 3rd coldest March 5 on record with a high of 17°.

TOP 5 COLDEST MARCH 5THS AT WEST LAFAYETTE:
1.  12°  1960
2.  16°  1890
3.  17°  2015*
4.  20°  1978
5.  22°  1954

*forecast high

 

 


The Latest On Ice, Rain, A Thaw & Flooding Potential

March 1st, 2015 at 8:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperature forecast tonight is tricky.  With broken clouds around, areas that see the most clearing could get to 10, while areas that keep clouds may only be around 18 or 20.

After sun tomorrow (upper 20s to lower 30s), skies will become cloudy tomorrow night (lows in the 20s, then rising to 30-32).  Freezing rain will overspread the area.  Given this snow pack & the thus the depth of the cold air, some sleet is possible at the onset.

Icing is likely for a while before freezing rain changes to rain by Tuesday morning.

This is a preliminary glaze ice accretion map:

DMA Map II

Rain is likely Tuesday-Tuesday night with some thunder possible.  South winds may gust to 40 mph in the afternoon-evening.  Highs from near 40 in the north to near 50 in the south are likely with 45 at Lafayette.

Rain may end as ice/snow Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.

Ice jamming of streams/creek, rapid rises in streams/creeks is possible.  Wabash may rise above flood stage late week.  Ponding is likely on roadways & in lawns underneath melting snow.  If you can, make sure to clear the storm drain of snow around your street to drain water to prevent flooding.

0.75-1″ liquid is possible over northeastern half with 1-1.25″ over southeast.

Arctic blast will arrive with highs only in the teens to lower 20s by Thursday.

Dry weather will be the story to next weekend.

We may get to the 40s by next weekend.

Beyond that to around March 15, it looks overwhelmingly dry & fairly seasonable.

Still looks like a significant warm-up with 61-68 around March 15-18 with lows only in the 50s & rainfall.

This looks to be followed by below-normal temperatures around the 19th with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.


Snowfall Totals

March 1st, 2015 at 4:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

From what I can see from spotters & radar estimates, looks like Rossville may get the coveted (or dreaded) “Top Snowfall Amount of the Storm” medallion with 10″.

Looks like we had a wide 5-9″ band that covered the entire viewing area with a few isolated +9″ amounts.  It appears in the far north, it is 3-5″.

From what I can see from totals received, the heaviest snowfall occurred from near Romney to Dayton to Rossville to Frankfort with 9″ with isolated +9″ amounts.

As all of the CoCo & NWS COOP totals arrive tomorrow morning, I will have additional totals on this map.

Thank you everyone from our WLFI spotters to all NWS spotters for your totals!

DMA Map II


Snowfall Updates

March 1st, 2015 at 10:08 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

2:10 p.m.

West Lafayette:  Overcast   29°     Calm Wind   Snow:  6.9″  Liquid:  0.59″

Emergency Management now reporting 7″ in Logansport.  Bud measured 8″ on southeastside of Lafayette.  Randy has 9″ in Frankfort.  Report of 9″ on 28 in southern Tippecanoe County.

DMA Map II

Remember in measuring snow to measure on a snowboard on a level surface.  Put a flag by the snowboard to mark its location.

You measure in a lawn or anywhere else, totals will be higher or lower.

To measure snow, take measurements on a white wooden snowboard & then take measurements in a flat area nearest to the snowboard away from rooftops, etc.

Then, average all of the amounts.

In situation where is it melting between snow periods, clear board & measure after each burst.

I know several of you spotters that have snowboards & I would encourage you all to get one.  They give more accurate totals.

Also, make sure you are not measuring on old snow in your yard.

This is official NWS technique to measure snow.  Thanks all!

 

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11:09 a.m.

West Lafayette:  Light Snow   24°     Calm Wind   Snow:  6.5″  Liquid:  0.54″

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Report of visibility below 0.25 mile in heavy snow in northern Newton County.

North of 24, the snow will fall at 1″ per hour at times to this afternoon.

Elsewhere, snow will be more off & on to early afternoon.

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10 a.m.

West Lafayette:  Light Snow   24°     Calm Wind   Snow:  6.3″  Liquid:  0.55″

Temperatures vary in the area from 20° in the north to 30° in the south.

Looks like totals are going to end up at 5-9″ area-wide rather than that band in the heart of the area.  A few isolated +9″ amounts are possible.

Band of heavy snow is lining op over our northern areas as of 10 a.m. with 1″ per hour rates.  Line goes back to southeast Iowa.

Elsewhere, more periodic snow will fall this morning before ending by early afternoon.

So, much of this should wind down by early afternoon.  However, that band in the north could hang on longer than that.

1DMA Map IIDMA Map III


Snow Updates

February 28th, 2015 at 7:15 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

10:30 p.m.

West Lafayette:  Light Snow  22°  SE Wind 11 mph   1.0″ Snow    0.05″ Liquid

40-50 low-level jet will feed warm air aloft & marginal instability, resulting in rising temperatures at the surface overnight & aloft, but also intense convective elements in the snow with locally-heavy rates.

This LLJ will cause snow to become wetter with dendrites or flakes, rather than sand-like crystals.

Secondly, zone of 850-700 mb frontagenetical forcing will tend to put down a narrow band of heavy snow, which is currently in central Illinois, over the area along 24 & southward to West Lafayette.

It is in the upper teens in our northern counties & mid 30s in southern Indiana.  That air is being forced up & over the cold airmass & wedged in the 850-700 mb layer.  Again, in the 850 mb zone, that LLJ is pumping in abundant moisture & warmer air from the western Gulf of Mexico, too.  The spinning Earth of Coriolis, is turning the LLJ to the right.

This will result in higher snowfall rates area-wide overnight, but especially in that mentioned banding zone.

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Thank you for your reports!  Several have mentioned turning in now for the night.  Thank you for staying up & bearing the cold to take measurements!  This doesn’t go unnoticed!

DMA Map II

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9:17 p.m.

West Lafayette daily record low officially tied at the Purdue Ag Farm this morning with -5.  This ties the 1993 record of -5.

West Lafayette:  Light Snow  22°  SE Wind 10 mph  0.5″ Snow  0.02″ Liquid

It is snowing area-wide as of 9:17 p.m.

Radar & reported snowfall totals (so far) over past 30 minutes:

1DMA Map II

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7:13 p.m.

West Lafayette:  Light Snow   22°   ESE Wind 10 mph   Trace of Snow  Trace of Liquid

Light snow is overspreading the area:

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Brief Thoughts On Now-March 20

February 28th, 2015 at 4:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Good news:  there will be a few brief spurts of normal & even above normal temperatures to March 20.

Bad news:  overall pattern supports temperature averaging 4-7 degrees below normal now-March 20.

So, in a nutshell, slow improvement towards spring is on the way, but there will be period where it will feel if winter will not leave.

The brief spurts of warmer weather will carry us when we feel this winter is way too long.


2:30 P.M. Update

February 28th, 2015 at 2:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Current radar & direction of snowfall movement:

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With the snow already in southwestern Illinois, it will overspread the area this evening.  With much of it falling with temperatures in the 20s with not the big slug of warm overriding area aloft, it will be mainly snow & not mix.

DMA Map II

Tuesday rainfall totals & evening temperatures are below:

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Amber will have the latest on-air tonight at 6 & 11 on News 18.