Chad Evans

Updates

August 29th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

6:38 p.m.

Marble hail is likely near Dunn to near Free & south of Earl Park.

Will monitor to make sure hail size does not get larger.

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6:10 p.m.

Notice weather station near Demotte with a sustained southwest wind at 26 mph with t’storm.

Saw CoCoRaHs obsever east-northeast of Kentland reported 0.91″ in “20 minutes of very intense rain” & “strong gusty winds”.

I would be curious of any measured wind gust in that area.  Jim, I think you have an anemometer.  If you are on, any gust information would be great!

T’storms will tend to rapidly decrease in coverage after 10p

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6 p.m.

T’storms are moving north-northeastward & are tending to gelling into at least a broken line.

Locally-heavy rainfall, isolated wind/hail, lightning with a peak of 40% coverage will occur.

Outside of rainfall or rain-cooled air, it is very warm to hot & humid.

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5:36 p.m.

Scattered t’storms continue to develop & move north-northeast.  Coverage will continue to increase & peak this evening at 40%.  Isolated severe wind/hail threat is still in place & they may still gell up into a north/northeastward-moving line.

Pea hail was reported south of Morocco with a gust of 32 mph measured at Morocco with 0.57″ of rainfall from t’storm.

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5:09 p.m.

T’storm northeast of Kentland has 100% of hail with size maxing out at 0.75″.  Brief, local gust to 45 mph possible, too.

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4:12 P.M. Update

August 29th, 2014 at 4:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a hot one.  We just went up to 88 as of 4:10 p.m. at WLFI with a dew point of 73 making it feel more like 96.

Parts of the area are recently rain-cooled, but are rising back into the 80s again.  T’storms have gone through Fulton & Cass counties, but Rochester & Logansport airports are back up to 81 & 82 respectively.

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Scattered pulsey t’storms continue to work northeastward.

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3 P.M. Update

August 29th, 2014 at 2:54 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers & t’storms are moving through Pulaski, Fulton, Cass counties at the moment.

T’storms are developing quite rapidly to our southwest & pulsing up a lot.  pea to marble hail becoming increasingly likely with them.

More t’storms will develop & the coverage will likely increase in our area by late afternoon-evening.

Peak of 40% coverage with isolated severe wind/hail threat will be with us late afternoon-evening.

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Three main waves of showers & t’storms are still likely, but the best chance of isolated severe is still late afternoon-evening today (as of 3 p.m.):

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T’Storm Outlook

August 29th, 2014 at 1:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After some scattered showers/t’showers this morning & overcast skies, skies are now clearing, it is heating up rapidly & scattered t’storms are popping.  Dew points are back up into the 70s today after a break yesterday.

These will continue to pop through the afternoon.

Coverage will peak this evening at 40%.  An isolated severe wind gust/hail cannot be ruled out.

After this, a break will likely ensue with current disturbance in Missouri popping additional showers & t’storms late tonight-tomorrow morning.

There may then be a another break, followed by the actual surface cold frontal passage between noon & mid-afternoon with a broken line of showers & t’storms.

Sunday looks dry, but periodic t’storms are possible Monday-Friday with temperatures gradually heating up to near 90 by late next week.

 


4:02 P.M. Update

August 28th, 2014 at 3:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Front will move back north with potential of some scattered showers/storms tonight, followed by a tropical, muggy, hot Friday with scattered storms.  Looks like they will be most widespread late in the day with potential of a semi-organized line/band if a cold pool can develop.  Kept isolated severe in forecast.

Still looks like round Saturday morning & then more Saturday noon-early afternoon with actual surface cold front.

Trends show front south of us Sunday, but a northerly migration Monday may pop isolated storms.  Kept isolated storms in for Tuesday, then better storm coverage Wednesday-Friday as front stalls over area. 

Data still suggests a northward migration of the the front, which will bathe us in pretty unseasonable heat & humidity as trough drops into Pacific Northwest.

This heat/humidity may hang on for several days before strong upper trough & surface cold front sweep through around September 10 & usher in much cooler weather with some overnight lows potentially in the 40s.

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Latest On the Time Frame of the Next Threat of Showers & T’Storms

August 28th, 2014 at 1:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a bit cooler this than it has been for the past several mornings with lows of 59-65.

DMA Map II

Front is south of us today, but beginning to work back north as surface flow goes from due north to east in our area, ceasing the cooler lake breeze.

Also surface low in Nebraska is tending to pull front back north.

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Isolated showers/t’storms are possible tonight as front lifts through the area, followed by scattered t’storms tomorrow.

More widespread showers & t’storms are possible Friday evening as storms may actually gell into a line.  Isolated severe gust/hail is possible.

Once that passes, a secondary wave of showers & t’storms may pass Saturday morning.

It still looks like the actual surface cold front will not come through centered near around midday to early afternoon with a broken line of showers & t’storms.

Saturday night looks dry, as does Sunday.  Lows will run near 62 Saturday night & highs will likely reach 83 Sunday.

Some data suggests front will shoot back north early & stall over area Monday-Tuesday with multiple rounds of showers & t’storms.  The trend has been for the front to do this Wednesday-Thursday, not Monday-Tuesday.

For now, we will monitor & get a few model run under the belt before tweaking any.

With the upper jet so far north & this sort of stagnant pattern, we are driven by more small-scale factors such as weak fronts, outflow boundaries, MCVs, etc., than larger-scale weather systems.

The agreement is that the front will eventually move back way north & bath us in July-like weather September 5-9.

Still looks like a nice cool-down September 10-13.  Highs will likely be 69-75 with lows at 46-50.


10:20 P.M. Update

August 27th, 2014 at 10:04 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Due north wind north of our weak front has brought a nice lake breeze front into the area tonight.  The humidity has dropped & the cooler air has come in!

It is currently 72 at the station, but the dew point is 61!

The weak front is just south of the viewing area & has not made movement back north this evening, owing to lake breeze front.  Regardless, it is still a bit muggy in the south with 75 at Crawfordsville with a dew point of 69.

South of the front, Terre Haute is at 78 with a dew point of 71.

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With front likely staying south of our area tonight with re-inforcement of lake front, kept it 100% dry with lows of around 60 to 65.  Patchy dense fog is also possible.

I went for dry Thursday with partly cloudy skies & highs of 83-88 with front likely staying just south of the area.  It will move through area tomorrow night with a few storms possible.

Some scattered storms with 35% coverage are definitely warranted for Friday, but data still suggest a wave of more widespread showers/storms (perhaps an evolving line with 50% coverage) Friday evening.  Given the high instability & marginal shear, isolated severe wind/hail is possible.  Another wave of showers & storms is possible Saturday morning (45%).

Actual surface cold front may pass around midday Saturday with a line of showers & storms (45%).

We will continue monitor.


I Will Be On 5-6:30 P.M. Today…………….4:15 P.M. Update

August 27th, 2014 at 4:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I will be on the blog today 5-6:30 p.m. if any of you have questions, like Travis or Matthew had today.  I will be able to give immediate responses.

Thank you everyone & thank you always for you valuable rain & severe weather reports, as well as your pictures!  They are extremely helpful & much appreciated!

-Chad

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Weak front sliding southward has taken the edge off the temperatures & humidity a hair today.

At the station, I have 85, but the dew point is down to 68.  This is still humid, but not like the 77-degree dew point of yesterday & days prior.

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Isolated shower/t’storm is still possible south of 26 this evening as weak front begins to slowly work back northward.

This isolated rainfall potential will spread through the entire viewing area from south to north tonight-Thursday morning as that weak front continues to lift back north as a warm front.

Some more patchy dense fog is also possible.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

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2014 Severe Weather Events

August 27th, 2014 at 3:27 pm by under Uncategorized

FEBRUARY 20, 2014 SEVERE EVENT

A QLCS squall line raced through largely our southern half on February 20 with damaging straight-line winds & one confirmed tornado.

Additionally, rapid snow melt from much warmer weather & rainfall caused flooding & significant ice jams on rivers & streams.

An ice jam on the Eel River in Cass County caused flooding with a few home evacuations.  Ice jam on Wildcat Creek has also caused back-up flooding, resulting in several home evacuations.

The Wabash had a 7-mile long ice jam in Carroll & Cass counties, backing up floodwater further in to Cass County.

Pipestone Creek on the Cass/Miami line had an ice jam with back-up flooding being reported.

Event images & NWS tornado survey (note: tornado is not on severe storm reports map, as it was confirmed after this map was made).

Tornado was a part of LEWP in the line with one signature southeast & east of Crawfordsville & another north of Crawfordsville.  The one southeast & east of Crawfordsville produced the tornado.

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Track is based on radar data & NWS information:

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IHBADI Map II

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STORM REPORTS:

Hillsboro:  Small limbs down & shingles off home

Crawfordsville:  M61 mph

Tipton:  E65 mph

Atlanta:  M67 mph

Frankfort:  Semi overturned, leaking propane.  I-65 closed.

Northeast of Frankfort:  5 minutes of gusts of 50-52 mph.

Frankfort:  M55 mph

Kokomo:  M54 mph

Attica:  M50 mph

Covington:  M52 mph

Thorntown:  M62 mph

Burlington:  M51 mph

Logansport:  M58 mph

Montgomery County:  Several reports of shingles blown off homes.

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MAY 21, 2014 SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL & MICROBURST

The second severe weather event of the year struck today with hail to baseball size & one significant microburst.

Overnight, supercell/multi-cells gelled into an MCS that clipper our north/northeast.  Marble hail & gusty winds were reported in the morning in Cass, Miami counties.

The outflow boundary from these storms set up in the heart of the viewing area.  With nice northwest flow at mid & upper levels along with a very unstable, hot, juicy environment, supercells & multi-cells popped rapidly.  The high CAPE & steep lapse rates with shear from the stronger flow aloft made for lots of hail & a few minor to significant microbursts.

Storms also popped on the actual surface cold front.  As another core of stronger mid- & upper-flow helped to ignite these storms.

Eventually the cold front merged with the outflow boundary in the evening & as that even stronger flow arrived we had billiard ball to baseball hail in southeast Fountain & southwest Montgomery counties this evening.  Hail of up to softball size fell in eastern Illinois.

Tree limbs were reportedly downed near Kingman & Covington with 50 & 53 mph gusts.  An intense microburst around Lebanon caused tree damage & even toppled many large trees (one 3′ in diameter at breast height).  Power poles & line were also down.  In this 1.5- to 2-mile oval, winds may have gusted 70 to perhaps 75 mph.

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Images of the event:

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Ryan Harber (West Lafayette):  Storm over Boone County as seen from West Lafayette…………..

John Mahoney (West of Frankfort on I-65):  Wall cloud on back side of supercell that produced 1.75″ hail & 50 mph gust in Clinton County……………..

Autumn McGregor (South of Pine Village):  Underbelly of severe storms over Vermillion & Parke counties this evening, showing the mammatus…………………….

Beth Mantle (Attica):  Underbelly of storm from Parke County showing mammatus……………………

Lyndsey Gayler (West Point):  Mammatus over West Point…………….

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Other pics:

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JUNE 18, 2014 LINE OF STORMS

A line of storms with a relatively narrow swath of wind damage passed through the area in the afternoon.  These overturned the airmass & gutted a lot of the surface instability for storms.  These storms did struggle due to capping (CINH) issues nudging in from Plains/western Corn Belt upper ridge.

However, central Illinois missed the storms & was highly-unstable, hot & humid in the evening with surface CAPE to 4500 J/kg.  This advected back in & although it was more elevated instability at first, the storms & instability became increasingly surface-based with time.  That, in combination with good downdraft CAPE & lake breeze front & a slightly-bowing line of storms passed through in the evening in the “Ring of Fire” or periphery of Plains & western Corn Belt upper ridging, capping & heat.

STORM REPORTS:

East of Morocco:  Powerlines down

East of Morocco:  E70 mph

Lake Village:  E60 mph

Northern Newton County:  Powerlines down & on fire

North of West Lafayette:  E60 mph

WLFI-TV:  M55 mph

Lake Cicott:  Trees down

White County:  Multiple trees down countywide

Burlington:  M60 mph

Kokomo:  M64 mph

Delphi:  Trees down on Tecumseh Bend Road

Peru:  Tree down on power lines

Northeast of Thorntown:  M51 mph (Report Missing In First Image)

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Images of the event:

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Autumn McGregor:  Near Pine Village

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Pam Leonard:  Monticello

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JUNE 30-JULY 1, 2014: TWO DERECHOS

A long-lived, long-track derecho raked areas just north of the viewing area during the late evening of Tuesday, June 30.  This did prompt Severe T’Storm Warning for far northern Jasper County at 9 p.m., but wind stayed just north of the Kankakee River.

Second derecho races east & southeastward, affecting area 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. on a very sultry, juicy night.   WLFI dew point hit 78.  Morocco dew point hit 79!

Storms raced southeastward between though they encountered CINH (capping) with southward progression & began to weaken.

However, they did produce gusts of 45-55 mph, even with weakening.  As they completely collapsed, extensive wind damage occurred in our far southeast & east & then in the Indianapolis area.

Aided by upper trough & ridge-riding shortwave, storms exploded on plume of very high surface CAPE in Illinois & Indiana, which had been capped all afternoon.  Surface CAPE reached 4500-5500 J/kg, which lingered after dusk & supported the severe threat.

Less capping (CINH) & more dynamics, but bit less CAPE brought the most widespread damaging winds to our northern & northwestern counties.

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Winamac Damage (from Betty & Teri):

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NWS Chicago has confirmed one EF1 tornado occurred in the June 30-July 1 derecho in our viewing area.

Embedded in the significant damaging straight-line winds, it appears a tornado (perhaps multiple tornadoes) occurred in northern Jasper County east & northeast of Demotte in an 8-mile path.

Below is image of velocity data as tornado was northeast of Demotte before lifting.  At this point, it was still likely as EF1.  Velocity data still indicated 95 mph winds at beam level about 4.5 miles northeast of Demotte at this time.

A tornado was also confirmed near Lowell.  You can see the signature of it in the second image.

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Tornadoes were confirmed in Kankakee & Will counties in Illinois.  However, extreme straight-line winds to 100 mph hit Morris, Illinois.

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Pics of the tornado damage are courtesy of NWS Chicago:

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TORNADO # 5 IN AND NEAR DEMOTTE INDIANA...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             NONE
INJURIES:               NONE

START DATE:             JUNE 30 2014
START TIME:             1049 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         3.3 MILES EAST OF DE MOTTE IN
START LAT/LON:          41.1909/-87.2613

END DATE:               JUNE 30 2014
END TIME:               1056 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           4.9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE MOTTE IN
END LAT/LON:            41.2240/-87.1138

SURVEY SUMMARY:
A 100-200 YARD SWATH OF CONSISTENT TREE DAMAGE...WITH NUMEROUS
SNAPPED TREES...BEGAN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DE MOTTE BETWEEN N CR 1150
W AND N CR 1100 W JUST NORTH OF W CR 1200 N. THE DAMAGE CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEAST JUST TO THE EAST AND THEN THROUGH THE CENTER OF DE
MOTTE NORTH OF 9TH STREET. JUST EAST OF DE MOTTE ALONG ORCHID
STREET...A BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND DOUBLE WIDE
MANUFACTURED HOME EXPERIENCED SOME STRUCTURAL AND/OR ROOF DAMAGE.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG W CR 1450 N NEAR THE END OF THE DAMAGE
PATH...THERE WERE SNAPPED TREES...WOOD POWER POLES LEANING AND
DAMAGE TO TWO FARMSTEADS. ON ONE...THE DOORS COLLAPSED IN A POLE
BARN. IN ANOTHER POLE BARN...THE WALLS COLLAPSED AFTER THE ROOF
WAS BLOWN OFF. THE DAMAGE IN THIS TORNADO PATH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 100-105 MPH.

IT CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT THAT MORE THAN ONE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN ALONG THE 8 MILE LONG DAMAGE PATH.

NWS has confirmed that southeast of Lowell to northern Jasper County, straight-line winds of 85-110 mph occurred.

EF1 tornado with winds of 100-105 mph was embedded in the straight-line winds.

Wind damage in Pulaski County consistent with gusts of 60-85 mph.  The northern half of the county was hardest hit with damage similar to that of Marshall County, where winds were up to 85 mph

STORM REPORTS:

M86 mph  Lowell

E85 mph  Wheatfield

E80 mph Northside of Winamac

M70 mph  Morocco

Numerous Trees Down In the Northern Half of Pulaski County

Tree Limbs & Trees Down  Northwest Newton County

Barns & Farms Outbuildings Damaged/Destroyed Near Demotte

Numerous Trees & Powerlines Down In Demotte

Trees Down Near Grissom Air Reserve Base

2 Power Poles Snapped at the Base  Grissom Reserve Base

Trees & Power Lines Down Across Western Boone County

Several Farm Buildings Damaged/Destroyed in Western Boone County.

Power Poles Blown Onto 75 Near Advance

Large Tree Limb Blown Down Along 75 in Advance

M66 mph  Grissom Air Reserve Base

M64 mph  Winamac

Trees Down Near St. Joseph College

Extensive Wind Damage In Winamac:  Trees & Powerlines Down with Structural Damage

M61 mph  Kentland

Tree Limbs & TV Antennas Down In Kentland

E60 mph Ladoga

M59 mph  Fowler

E50 mph Between Attica & West Point

M48 mph  Attica

M45 mph  Rensselaer

M44 mph  Fulton County Airport

M43 mph  White County Airport

M41 mph  WLFI-TV

M40 mph  Northeast of Frankfort

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JULY 14, 2014 SQUALL LINE

With arrival of upper trough & surface cold front, band of multi-cell storms with a couple with embedded supercell features, gelled into a squall line with sporadic strong-severe gusts & some pea hail.

Surface CAPE was a bit less (today 2500 J/kg) than it had been in a few days, but dynamics were stronger with up to 40 kts. of shear, good convergence to form storms & steeper lapse rates.

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Images of the event:

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Josh Raub sent this pic of minor siding damage in Lindbergh Village in West Lafayette.  Two other homes lost shingles.

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Other images of the storm/storm damage:

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AUGUST 21, 2014 CLUSTER TO LINE OF STORMS (WITH LARGE HAILER ON TAIL END)

A cluster of storms quickly developed on the evening of August 21 just northwest of the viewing area at the junction of MCV & outflow boundary from morning MCS, storm quickly blew up in uncapped, highly unstable environment with up to 4500 J/kg of surface CAPE downstream.

The cluster assumed a more linear, organized bow shape with southeastward progression as cold pool developed (rain-cooled air forcing the storms forward & fanning them out into the bowing line).  On its tail end, large hail fell, some of it up to full black walnut size (2.25″ diameter).  Also, a brief, tightly-wound rotation signature was seen.

Precipitable water amounts were very high with dew points in the middle to even upper 70s.  So, torrential rainfall accompanied the storms with a quick 2″ of rainfall in some areas, which resulted in flash flooding.

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Images of the event as we were tracking the storms:

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Damage, Hail & Sky Pics:

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AUGUST 26-27, 2014 MACROBURSTS & LARGE HAIL

August 26

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August 27

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Outlook to September 13

August 27th, 2014 at 11:54 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT……………...

After a few storms & locally-dense fog this morning, we are now partly cloudy & heating up.

Yesterday was the third day at or above 90 at the Purdue Ag Farm & WLFI.  Today, we will not hit 90, but rise into the mid to upper 80s.  It will still be muggy, though.

At WLFI, we have had 7.39″ for August, while the Ag Farm has had 6.99″.  This is well above the normal of 3.68″.  This is in West Lafayette.  The south & southeast sides of Lafayette have been drier.

I like 20% POPs for storms today & tonight south of Route 26 (Kokomo to Lafayette to Pine Village line) with patchy dense fog possible tonight-early Thursday.  I removed any “isolated severe” for today as it won’t be as unstable as the past few days with our weak front settling just south of our area.

Right now, looks as if any storm would be confined to Thursday morning.

Thursday night looks dry.

FRIDAY-MONDAY………………

A few isolated storms are possible Friday (20%), but it look like more widespread storms with isolated severe weather are possible Friday evening-night.  That could even organize into a squall line.

The actual surface cold front does not look to move through until near noon Saturday in the viewing area.  A broken line of t’storms is possible along it, so it is a very close call for the Purdue game at Ross-Ade at this point.  We will monitor, as it is only Wednesday & too early to make an exact call on that.  Sunday & Labor Day currently looks dry (based on latest data) with 80-85.

SEPTEMBER 2-10……………..

After this, the trend will continue to be above-normal temperatures through September 10.  The potential exists for a heat wave with 5 days of +90 for at least part of the area September 5-9.

Rainfall, overall, looks above normal.

We will monitor.

SEPTEMBER 11-13…………….

A strong cold front looks to pass around September 11.  After this, temperatures will cool back to more normal levels.  September 12-13, high may run near 75 with lows near 50.  Dew points during this period look very comfortable in the mid 40s.