Chad Evans

9:47 P.M. Update

April 24th, 2014 at 9:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs today ranged from 61-73 with strong southeast to south winds with largely mostly cloudy skies.  There were even some sprinkles & a few quick showers along a secondary warm front this afternoon.

Champaign & Decatur, Illinois reached 74 with 73 at Covington & Crawfordsville, in our area.  Logansport was the cool spot at 61, but Fulton County Airport & Grissom to Peru all reached 63. 

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Showers are moving in.  However, the main band of rainfall is in Illinois.

On leading edge of this, wind gusted to 53 mph at Springfield, Illinois Airport ASOS.

All of the thunder & lightning is confined to southern Illinois.  Isolated thunder is possible here, given bits of elevated CAPE.

Some gustiness may accompany the showers/thunder as the rain falls through a considerably deep layer of dry air.

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6 P.M. Update

April 24th, 2014 at 5:38 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Quite an outbreak of severe t’storms is occurring to our southwest.

Our line/band of showers & t’storms will arrive after 8 p.m. with nothing more than isolated small hail & strong/severe gust.  Actually, some pretty widespread damaging straight-line wind may hold on into central/south-central Illinois to even southwest Indiana.

Looking at latest NAM & HRRR data, 0.30-0.70″ of rainfall still looks good for area.  However, the 0.70″ amounts will be few & far between & much of the area will fall closer to the 0.30 & 0.40″ amounts.

The forecast is increasingly grim for the Plains this weekend with several large, long-track, significant tornadoes likely Kansas to Oklahoma & Texas.  All parameters support High Risk Day there.

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4:35 P.M. Update

April 24th, 2014 at 4:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have nice sunshine at the station wtih 68, but the wind is strong from the south now at 23 mph with gusts to 30 mph. 

Temperatures vary from 60 to 73 across the area with passage of secondary warm front (which had clouds, virga with some of that rain reaching the ground as sprinkles &/or a few light showers).

Warm air continues to flow northward with around 80 in southeast Illinois right now (79 Mount Carmel Airport) & mid 70s as far north as Champaign, Illinois.

Westville, Illinois has 72, Covington 73 & now Crawfordsville at 72.

It is still a relatively cool 60 at Peru & Grissom ARB.

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Line/band of showers/storms is organizing ro our southwest & west.

Severe T’Storm Watches are out for Missouri, part of Oklahoma to Arkansas & Tennessee.  That will be the zone for greatest potential of severe.

However, given deep layer of dry air at mid & even some low levels, a few strong-severe gusts may make it to the ground where bits of elevated CAPE exist.  With temperatures below freezing at 9,000′, isolated bit of pea hail is possible.

Rainfall doesn’t look too substantial, though I did raise it from 0.15-0.45″ to 0.30-0.70″.  The 0.70″ amounts will be few.

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1:45 P.M. Update

April 24th, 2014 at 1:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The wind is relentless with southeast winds sustained at 22 mph right now with gusts to 33 mph.

Temperature as of 1:47 p.m. is 63.3 degrees at WLFI with cloudy skies.

Warm spot in the viewing area presently is Kentland at 64.1 degrees.

Cool spot is the entire area is the Cass County Airport at Logansport with 59 degrees.

DMA Map II

Secondary warm front is working through, which has turned skies cloudy over part of the area.  There is virga & perhaps some sprinkles with it.

South of the warm front, temperatures are in the 70s with mostly sunny skies.

We will get into this later today.

Line/band of showers & t’storms still likely after 8 p.m., but severe threat does not look widespread here.  Isolated small hailer/strong-severe gusts are still possible.

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Latest Detailed Forecast Information On Today-May 4

April 24th, 2014 at 9:55 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

OVERALL………

Morning analysis shows some pretty substantial changes in overall forecast based on 1) magnitude of passing cold front Friday night 2) position of surface high thereafter 3) strength of westerly, dry winds 4) track of next system & associated severe threat.

TODAY-FRIDAY……..

For today, skies look partly cloudy.  Winds will be strong from southeast, then south.  Highs of 67-76 look good.  Line/band of showers & t’storms will pass this evening after 8 p.m.  An isolated small hailer &/or strong to severe gust is possible, but any scattered to more widespread severe threat will remain southwest of our area.

Clouds may hang on into Friday morning, along with a few showers.  However, skies will turn sunny afternoon with strong west winds, low dew points & highs of 69-77.

Total rainfall for tonight-tomorrow morning looks to run 0.30-0.70″.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND TO THE WEEKEND THEREAFTER (SATURDAY-TO THE NEXT SUNDAY)………

1.  It appears we will continue to be bathed in dry westerly flow even into Saturday (cold front will tend to wash out & move more due east than southeast with colder air remaining bottled to the north).  So, Saturday 70s (to near 80) seem quite likely with dew points only in the 30s with strong west winds to 35 mph.

2.  Even Sunday, southwest winds will keep it in the 70s to near 80 with increasing clouds.

3.  2014 has seen one of the least-active tornado seasons in a century with no fatalities (hasn’t been seen in nearly 100 years).

Much more typical, active severe weather pattern will develop this weekend & to start next week, however.

Next storm system has continued to show a more northerly track.  In fact, new data shows deepening low over Nebraska or South Dakota Sunday midday.  At that point, surface low could be down to 984 mb!  Very impressive system will produce significant severe weather outbreak from Nebraska & Iowa to Texas.  Some long-lived, strong tornadoes are possible.

Midwest Map II

4.  Surface low could actually reach 979 mb over South Dakota Sunday night, while significant severe outbreak will be on-going (though the storms will likely be more linear than supercellular, unlike earlier in the day).

5.  By Monday morning, negatively-tilted, occluding storm system over South Dakota will have a weakening squall line from Wisconsin to Illinois.  This would tend to pass through our area in the morning & fall apart.

Midwest Map III

6.  However, there is data supporting the line falling apart, our sun appearing, then new storms forming in Illinois in the afternoon.  Monday afternoon shows negatively-tilted 99o mb storm over South Dakota with potent wind fields at all levels promoting new storms in Illinois that would be severe.  So, thinking severe threat may need to be introduced to our area with highs in the 70s & surface CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg.  Hail, wind, isolated tornado threat would be possible in our area.

Meanwhile, it is likely that severe weather & tornadoes will occur in the southern U.S. with highly-diffluent upper flow there.

Midwest Map IIII

7.  Low will tend to fall completely apart Monday night & wobble southeastward.  In fact, by Tuesday, 1001 mb leftovers of it will be in western Illinois with scattered showers & t’storms here with 60s.

Midwest Map IV

8.  By Wednesday, low will be in Ohio & then sit & wobble in that region to Friday.  So, I think cool, clammy 50s will dominate Wednesday through Friday with scattered to spotty showers here with north & northeast winds.

9.  TOTAL RAINFALL Monday-Friday will likely run 1-2″ area-wide.

10.  Winds will return to the south next weekend with 70s overspread the area with dry weather.

Midwest Map iiv

 


10:45 P.M. Update Based On Latest Analysis

April 23rd, 2014 at 10:19 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a nice day with lots of sunshine & highs of 58-63.  However, surface warm front is approaching, so skies are going overcast.

A few showers & sprinkles are possible tonight as this passes.

Behind the front it is warmer & there has been a lot of severe weather from Nebraska to Texas. 

Ping-pong ball hail accumulated 3″ deep in Collingsworth County, Texas & many areas reported hail accumulation that looked like snow.  Hen egg hail (2″ diameter) fell in Texas & Oklahoma.  Wind gusted to 76 mph at Haskell, Texas.

Although no tornadoes have been reported, there have been 64 reports of severe weather.

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Partly cloudy, windy weather with 68-76 will still do for tomorrow with that line of showers & t’storms after 8 p.m.  Isolated small hail/strong to severe gusts are possible with it.  0.15-0.45″ of rainfall still looks good with it, followed by a sunny, windy & warm Friday with 72-79.

The new data does suggest a warmer Saturday & Sunday!  I went 64 on Saturday & 65 Sunday with low Saturday night at only 42.

Also, Monday system is tracking a bit farther north & northeastward.  Severe weather threat may get as far north as I-70.  Periodic showers & t’storms with highs of 56-65 are likely for our area.

Scattered showers are likely Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

Total rainfall may reach 0.75-1.25″, given more northerly track.

Wednesday looks partly to mostly cloudy, breezy to windy & cool with highs at 50-55.

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Outlook to Early Next Week Based On Latest Data & Analysis

April 23rd, 2014 at 3:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It is a beautiful day with some cirrus increasing in a nice, deep blue sky!

The trees are really greening up!  The tuliptree leaves are size of squirrel ear at West Lafayette & I noticed White Oaks budding & Pin Oaks in blossom.  Tulips are blooming & the Ohio Buckeyes are covered in young foliage with flower buds.

Corn planting & anhydrous application, as well as field cultivation is at a fast, fast pace today.

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The cirrus will increase & lower tonight to altostratus.  Some patchy virga/few sprinkles to light showers are possible tonight as a warm front moves through.

Lows will run 41-47, then rise a few degrees later tonight.

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With partly cloudy skies, winds will increase from the southeast, then south to 20-35 mph Thursday.  Highs of 68-76 look good.

Thursday evening, a line of showers & some t’storms will approach, then pass through.  A few isolated cells in the line may produce some small hail &/or perhaps a severe gust or two.  No widespread severe weather is expected, however.

Rainfall totals from this look to vary from 0.15-0.45″.

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Friday looks sunny, windy & dry with very low dew points in the 30s with temperatures in the 70s.  This will result in relative humidity values of around 24%.  Despite any rainfall Thursday evening-night, it will quickly evaporate away Friday.

This (& the gusty winds) will make for elevated fire danger of dry grasses of previous year’s growth & woodland leaf litter.  West winds will run 20-35 mph.

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The actual surface cold front will pass Friday night as a band of cumulus clouds.

Saturday does not look as cool as it did yesterday.  I have raised the high temperature from 58 to 61.  Saturday night does not look as chilly either with lows of 36, rather than yesterday’s forecast of 32.

Saturday does look windy from the northwest at 15-30 mph, but skies will be mostly sunny (just a few fair weather cumulus).

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High cirrus & mid-level clouds will increase & thicken Sunday from southwest to northeast.  The north & northeastern areas may eek out a mostly sunny day, but the central & southwestern half will have increasing clouds & dimming/fading sun.  Highs near 61 look good.

A potent upper low will eject out of the Rockies this weekend with multiple rounds of severe weather (perhaps significant with very large hail & tornadoes from the Plains to the South & even Ohio Valley Saturday-Tuesday.

Here, rain will overspread our area Monday with some embedded t’storms.  The surface high will prevent upper low from making robust progress north & northeastward, it appears.

Otherwise, we could be bathed in warm, humidity & severe weather potential. 

Highs of 56-63 look good for Monday with periodic rain & t’storms & strong east-southeast to southeast winds.

Some lingering scattered showers are possible Tuesday with highs in the 50s as upper low slowly wobbles east & southeast.

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Lows This Morning & Update On Today-Friday Forecast

April 23rd, 2014 at 11:32 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Lows this morning ranged from 30 to 34 degrees.

DMA Map II

Highs today will run 57-64 with sunny skies turning to increasing high cirrus as a warm front approaches.  Warmest temperatures will be in the southwest part of the viewing area.

Highs of 69-76 look good tomorrow with strong south to southwest winds to 35 mph with partly cloudy skies.

It still looks like a line of showers & t’storms tomorrow evening.  No widespread severe weather is expected, but I cannot rule out a few small hailers &/or a few isolated strong to severe gusts.

Rainfall of 0.15-0.45″ still seems good.

Friday looks mostly sunny, dry, windy & warm with elevated brush fire danger.  Dew points may drop into the 30s with highs in the 70s to around 80.

 


Updates

April 22nd, 2014 at 4:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

10:45 p.m. Update

A severe weather outbreak occurred in our area late on April 21.  Clean-up was in full swing on April 22.  Morocco was hardest hit with F4 tornado.  10 people were killed & 77 people injured in the town.  2 more people were killed east of Morocco.  20 farmsteads were completely destroyed with heavy damage in the town.

Damage was reported at $500,000 in Morocco.  Inflation figured for 2014, that would be over $12 million dollars today!

This violent tornado & HP supercell originated along the Mississippi River near Keokuk, Illinois.  Current evidence points toward one single significant tornado track with major damage from northeast of Bloomington, Illinois to east of Morocco from this supercell. 

In the west-central Illinois town of Bushnell, 30 were killed & 100 injured by a significant tornado from this storm early in its life cycle.  Tornado that would hit Morocco produced tornado at Chatsworth, Illinois, 40 miles northeast of Bloomington with damage there, but no deaths.

There was another tornado track that paralelled this one about 30 miles to the north.  Odell & Dwight, Illinois were heavily damaged with several people injured & killed.

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There were other tornado tracks in Illinois, but focus on this map is on the violent, signficant supercell long-track tornadoes

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After 54-63 today, we will drop to 30-33 tonight with frost.  With gradual increase in cirrus, highs of 57-65 look good tomorrow.  Cirrus will really thicken & lower to altostratus Wednesday evening as warm front approaches area & passes through tomorrow night.

Forecast remains unchanged, really.  See previous forecast below.

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5:40 p.m. Update

Soils continue to warm for corn planting.  The average bare soil temperature at 4″ depth (at 10 a.m.) yesterday & today was 60 & 56 at West Lafayette.

Temperature are not too bad……………bit cool in our east & northeast, though.

The green-up continues, however, as seen on our Renaissance Cam.

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Frost & a light freeze is likely tonight with calm wind, dry air &  mainly clear skies.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny, though the high thin cirrus clouds will thicken later in the day.  The sun will likely be dimmed & faded quite a bit by early evening as the cirrus thicken & lower ahead of an approaching surface warm front.

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Diffuse dryline/front will approach Thursday with dew points surging to 55-59 ahead of it here (strong south to southwest winds to 35, perhaps 40 mph at times).

Behind it, dew points will drop to the 30s.

This will be focus of a line of showers & t’storms that will pass in the evening.

A few sporadic strong to severe wind gusts are possible at the leading edge of it.  Rainfall doesn’t look too impressive with it at 0.15-0.45″.

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Behind it, warm, dry downsloping winds from the Plains & Desert Southwest will arrive Friday.  With mostly sunny skies, west winds may gust to 40 mph at times with highs near 78 & dew points dropping to the 30s.  The relative humidity may drop as low as 23%.  This will lead to elevated brush fire danger with dry grasses of last year’s growth & abundant rather dry leaf litter in woodlands. 

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Cold front will pass Friday night, leading to cooler Saturday.  Highs of 54-61 are likely with brisk northwest winds to 32 mph.

Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with only scattered fair weather cumulus. 

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System in the Plains looks to move & bit farther northeastward Sunday-Monday, as strong surface high slides towards Pennsylvania.

This will bring periodic rainfall with some embedded t’storms to our biewing area Monday, but the high will prevent the warm air from overspreading area & bringing severe threat.

Temperatures could be around 80 & dew points in the 60s around St. Louis with severe weather potential Monday.  Here, highs of 54-59 look likely with stiff east to southeast wind.

Current projections suggest around 0.50″ of rainfall.  Heavier totals of 1″ or more may fall southwest of our area.  We will watch to make sure those heavier totals do not shift northeastward.

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Update

April 22nd, 2014 at 3:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storm system in the Plains is looking to track farther northeast.  This will mean rainfall & some embedded t’storms Monday with highs in the 50s to around 60.  Severe weather is likely from St. Louis to Dallas.

We will be close to the very warm air!  St. Louis will hit 80 or 81 Monday with 70s as far north as south-central Illinois.  However, it looks like that is as far north as the warm front will get, as the system glide to the east & southeast.

As for rainfall, it is looking like a 0.50″ rain with the heavier amounts southwest of here.  It bear watching to make sure the +1″ do not move northeastward.

More on this & Thursday system soon, complete with graphics.