Late Summer-Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer 2014-15 Outlook

August 15th, 2014 at 2:22 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

If you have any questions about the outlook, do not hesitate to ask!  I am more than happy to elaborate more.  Additional material will be added to this outlook in the coming days.

By the way, right now, at 2:33 a.m., it is 72 degrees at Winnipeg, Manitoba, but 46 at Logansport & 50 at West Lafayette!  Fort Simpson, way up in the Northwest Territories in northern Canada is 66!  Inuvik on the northern coast of Canada (on the tundra edge with stunted spruce/birch/aspen woodland) is 50.

Thank you everyone!

-Chad

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Weak to moderate El Nino Modiki will set up for the fall, winter & spring before fading next summer.  Modiki El Ninos differs from traditional El Nino in that the main area of abnormally warm surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific is more in the central part than the eastern part.  This results in different effects than what would be expected in a normal weak to moderate El Nino.  The last El Nino Modiki occurred in the winter of 2009-10.

Other aspects of this forecast pertain to anomalously warm & cold areas of ocean around the world expected during the fall-winter-spring in tandem with a sleeping sun with very few sunspots expected.

At first, it looked like an all-out strong, traditional El Nino with a warm winter with little snow, but latest trends don’t necessarily show a warm, relatively snow-free winter like late 2005-06 winter or 2011-12, 1997-98, 1982-83 or 1918-19 winters.

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The years that match the current ocean warming/cooling pattern around the world with number of sunspots & volcanic activity, as well as the past behavior & projected behavior of these factors was researched.  I found years that favored the current regime the most.

To put this to the test, I put plugged these years into NOAA climate data division program & it spit out what all of these years had in common for the winter & summer prior to the El Nino Modoki.  The temperatures matched up very well!  Notice the unusually cold January & February & the warmer-than-normal May & June (this occurred), followed by the cool summer!  This is what occurred this year.

So, we can say that the current pattern around the world & our regime matches well with the years I plugged in to develop this outlook.

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THE OUTLOOK:

Fall Temperature

September, October & November………….& Overall For the Fall

(The more robust the blue or red or orange, the greater the temperature above or below normal…………white is normal).

1.  Highest temperatures of the year will likely occur in September.

2.  Below-normal temperatures overall in October.

3.  Above-normal temperatures in November.

4.  This will average out to a warmer-than-normal fall, then.

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Fall Precipitation

September, October & November………….& Overall For the Fall

(The more robust the blue or orange, the greater the precipitation above or below normal…………white is normal).

1.  September & October will tend to feature normal precipitation.

2.  November shows a tendency for a bit drier-than-normal.

3.  This will average out to normal precipitation this fall.

4.  If there is snowfall, it would tend to be below normal & not amount to much, it appears.  Of the years, a trace was the average.  Only 2004 had 2.1″ of snow in the fall at West Lafayette with higher amounts in the north & northeast.

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Fall Palmer Drought Index

1.  You can see even in the years put into this data, the show that abnormally dry area in northeastern Indiana, just like now.

2.  Data tends to point to wetter conditions overall in the western half in September & drier conditions in the east/northeast of our area.

3.  In October, it shows normal conditions over most of the area, except some above-normal soil moisture conditions in our northwestern areas.  This applies to November, as well.

4.  Overall, it appears the higher likelihood of wetter soils as we move into fall will be in our northwestern areas with drier conditions in the east & northeast & normal soil conditions for the time of year elsewhere.

TVWS

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December, January & February…………….& the Overall Winter

Temperatures

1.  There is a tendency for overall above normal temperatures over most of the area except more normal regime perhaps in our southeastern areas for December.

2.  January & February look colder-than-normal with potential of the coldest weather of the winter in early- to mid-February.

3.  Per this analysis, odds favor an overall colder-than-normal winter when the milder December is combined with the colder January & February.

311312Q

December, January & February…………….& the Overall Winter

Precipitation

1.  Precipitation in December & January looks normal.

2.  A bit drier-than-normal conditions look more likely in February.

3.  Overall for the winter, data shows an overall trend to slightly drier-than-normal conditions.

4.  In terms of snowfall,  it looks either normal or just a bit above normal for December-February.  I think most of the snow will fall in January with perhaps one larger storm in February & other very minor snows in that month.

Normal snowfall in the area varies from 18″ in the southwest to 32″ in the northeast.  At West Lafayette, I am forecasting 20.9″ for December-February.  Normal for winter is about 20″.

Of the 10 years that matched our current one, 4 had one snow event with over 6″ of snow in their respective winters.  They tended to occur in February (see above for regards to larger storm in February).

AAbP

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March, April & May………………& Overall Spring

Temperatures

1.  March favors normal temperatures will below-normal temperatures just south of our area.

2.  April tends to show above-normal temperatures.

3.  May look cooler-than-normal over most of the area, except the northwest & west.

4.  Overall spring temperatures look close to normal, but notice the warm anomaly in the Northern Plains & the cool anomaly in Texas, Southwest & Gulf Coast areas, owing to El Nino earmarks showing & continuing.

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March, April & May…………….& Overall Spring

Precipitation

1.  March looks drier-than-normal.

2.  April looks a bit drier-than-normal over the northern half of the area, with normal precipitation elsewhere.

3.  May even favors a bit below-normal precipitation.

4.  In terms of snow, of the 10 years matching this one, every year except 2 had at least 1″ of snow in spring (all in March).

CDEG

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June, July & August……………& Overall Summer

Temperatures

1.  Analog favors normal June temperatures, but above-normal temperature trends in July & August.

2.  This will make for an overall above-normal temperature trend for the summer of 2015.

3.  The average number of +90 days for the year average out to about 21 in the data set.  I am forecasting 20 for West Lafayette & similar numbers for the rest of the viewing area.

4.  Of all of the summers studied, the average highest temperature following the winter was around 94.7.  I am forecasting a maximum of 96 for next summer at West Lafayette.

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Precipitation

June, July & August………….& Overall Summer

1.  June look a bit wetter than normal, overall.

2.  July looks wet with above-normal rainfall area-wide.  It tends to be one of the wetter months of the year, anyway.

3.  This reminds me so much of the 2010 July when it was very wet, but very hot in that several instances had dew points in the upper 70s to around 80 & we were as high as 95.

4.  A sharp drying trend is noting in the data for August.

5.  Overall summer precipitation rounds out to above-normal between a likelihood of a wet July & a dry August.

IJKH

Palmer Drought Index

June, July & August………….& Summer Overall

1.  As a carry-over from the dry spring, analog points to Abormal Dryness in the Palmer Drought Index in our northwestern areas in June.

2.  July’s wetness show a complete elimination of spring dryness & a chunk of the area with quite wet soils.

3.  Again, trends favor rapid development of dry weather in August with Abnormally Dry conditions developing in the area with the potential of Short-Term Moderate Drought, especially toward Illinois.

4.  Overall pattern shows bit below-normal rainfall in our north half & it average out to normal rainfall in the south half.

MNLO

6 Responses to “Late Summer-Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer 2014-15 Outlook”

  1. cathy says:

    As always thanks for all the hard work Chad!!!

  2. Teri says:

    Chad, you put a lot of hard work into this, Thank you so much!

  3. What a great read! Thanks, Chad!!

    had an overnight low of 49* this morning!!

    MA in REM

  4. Brandon P says:

    Hey Chad! Thanks for all of this!

    When you report that Jan and Feb will be colder than normal – are we looking at way below normal temps like we faced earlier this year? The -20s / -40s? I think we’re all use to negative temps and windchills around here, but earlier this year – that was just TOO cold.

  5. Jim says:

    Nice job as usual Chad usual

  6. Chad Evans says:

    Hello Brandon! Thank you! No, it is doubtful that we will have the brutality of the last winter. However, nights below zero & wind chills well below that cannot be ruled out.

    We shall see how this all pans out! All the maps were made with a NOAA program & a computer, so it will be very neat to see how it pans out.

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