If you have any questions, I will be on for immediate response today 5-6 p.m.
Chad, we are seeing multiple signs from Ma Nature of an early, long, and hard winter, as in the cyclical hard winters of the ’60s and ’70s. Are you expecting this coming winter to be another rough one?
Hey Chad, Do you know how many months have been below normal since January 2013? It seems like we have been cool for a long time now, and that is another reason why I think it will be a warm winter. I would still like to get together with you sometime. I think it would be a lot of fun talking about weather history. Whatever day is good for you, will be good for me.
I am still in the process of completely completing my maps for the outlook. The forecast is largely done, but I am not ready to throw it out there, as I have a few maps I want to piece together with data tonight.
It will be completely finished around midnight.
Thanx, Chad – looking forward to your outlook! We went through the bitter winters of ’77-’79, and base our “weather guessing” on natural observances and even some old wives’ tales about the multitude and thickness of the woolly worms and the first snow fall coming 100 days after first fog, to the heightened squirrel storage activity, to the appearance of Canadian goshawks over a month ago (they screech with an accent!) Also, heliophysicists watching “Old Sol” say sunspots and solar flares are WAYYY below normal coming out of Solar Max. And as you’ve pointed out – despite weather in the Hoosier state being tough to predict at times – weather tends to be cyclical.
At least here at the station, every month has been below normal since January 2013 EXCEPT May & June.
Since August 2013, every month has been below normal except September, May & June.
I would love to meet up for weather history. I want to do that here in August. I am in Ohio this weekend, but next week would do. I will be in touch.
You know Glen, you are right. You can have every tool to forecast & Mother Nature throws a wrench at you. I don’t look at it with frustration, but fun & interest as she always keeps you on your toes!
This year, I did some different things with the late fall-winter-spring-summer outlook. You will see that tomorrow.
O No Moe asked me how the Drought Monitor is made, as our northeastern counties are now considered abnormally dry. Can you believe that parts of that area have had just 0.30″ of rainfall for August. At WLFI, we have had nearly 4″ of rainfall for the month. We just so happened to be the wettest area in the viewing area for the month.
The State Climate Office has a climate focal point committee. I am a part of this & it involves conference calls to gather input for the Drought Monitor. Also, State Climatologists, ag experts & extension agents to NWS mets are contacted to determine how the map is drawn. 250 experts contribute to the map each week.
Thank you Chad!
hi chad whats the outlook to the 30th as you know the first purdue football game is the 30th
Hey Travis, latest long-range data suggests upper 80s with dew points in the lower 70s with spotty storms. I would take that forecast for that particular grid point with a grain of salt. However, the overall pattern favors pretty consistent, rather warm, humid conditions at the end of the month with spotty storms.
Hey Chad, what do you think the chances are of us having any late-season severe weather this Fall? Probably not of the magnitude we had last year, but maybe something? Once again, thank you for serving as my personal storm-chasing consultant with your amazingly informative blogs!
Hello Josiah! Thank you for the comments! That is a tough call. Strong upper troughs & cold fronts from Canada with a combo of unseasonably warm air tend to produce these events, of course. An abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico can induce such situations & an abnormally strong Bermuda-type high helps. So far, that has not been an anchor this year.
It wasn’t last year either, however. That event last year was tied to the strong, strong upper jet that dominated the winter & blew up clippers with wind & snow over & over here. We just so happened to have the warm of a strong high in the Gulf pushing the warmth northward.
Thanks! Makes sense.
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