Outlook to August 6

July 21st, 2014 at 10:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have had a lot of haze & pale skies since last week.  A chunk of this is actually smoke from Canadian wildfires.  This was especially the case last week.  Now, the paleness is more pollution, pollution & moisture from sinking air of upper ridge, rather than Canadian smoke.  I noticed this paleness in Wisconsin as Canadian smoke passed over.  Below is an image of the smoke on Thursday of last week.

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Patchy dense fog is likely tonight with lows of 60-65.  Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will dominate with thick haze & highs of 90-95.

Wind will not provide much relief with south to southwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Heat indices will run in the upper 90s to around 100.

It will turn cooler Wednesday after a sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

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Severe weather outbreak is on-going over North Dakota & Manitoba.  These storms will blast Minnesota & Wisconsin, then tend to collapse.

However, new storms will fire to our northwest by tomorrow afternoon-evening.

It looks as if these storms will weaken before their arrival here late tomorrow night-Wednesday morning.  “Scattered storms” seems reasonable for area in the late night-morning.  Midday-early afternoon, new storms will likely re-fire in our southern third with the actual surface cold front.

In terms of severe weather, the severe threat will tend to be northwest of us tonight & tomorrow.  Given the fact that the stronger flow aloft will remain north of the area, it seems reasonable that organized severe will stay north of here.  Those stronger wind fields will set up over New England & southeastern Canada on Wednesday.

However, I would not be surprised to see a couple of isolated severe storms with wind as the main threat.  The widespread severe potential looks low at the moment.  If stronger flow aloft is a bit farther south or storms develop very good, organized cool pool (line), then this could change.  00z data shows a bit better set-up for some severe, but I would rather wait on additional data to alter the severe forecast right now.

Cooler, less humid will arrive behind front with 50s at night & 70s to lower 80s Wednesday & Thursday.  Friday will feature lower 80s.

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Front will move back north & bring some periodic showers/storms to our area Saturday-Sunday.  Humid conditions will dominate Saturday & Sunday with 80s & lows near 70.

In terms of the weather for the Brickyard 400, it appears rainfall coverage may peak for Sunday in the late afternoon & evening.

After this, return of highs in the upper 70s to around 80 & lows in the 50s are likely early next week.  In fact, nearly, if not, all of next week looks dry with a slow warm up back to mid 80s by next Friday.  August 2-6 looks warm to rather hot & humid with highs of 85-90 & lows near 70 with some periodic showers & t’storms.

No heat waves are currently seen to August 6.  However, given potential of deep Alaskan trough by August 10, that may change on/after that date.

 

2 Responses to “Outlook to August 6”

  1. That is one nasty looking system in N Dakota/MN!! It’s a warm night here in Rem town. Still 72* out there. Windows are closed, AC is on!

    MA in REM

  2. cathy says:

    Happy to see you back Chad!!

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