Outlook to July 17July 4th, 2014 at 12:09 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Scattered cumulus & 75-80 will dominate Friday with east/northeasterly wind at 5-10 mph. Lows of 52-55 are likely Friday night with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will run in the middle to upper 60s around fireworks time.
Saturday looks good with 79-83 with mostly sunny skies, however, high/mid clouds will increase late in the day as front moves back north as a warm front & approaches our area. Winds look southeasterly at 5-15 mph.
A severe MCS will develop over Iowa & ride warm front southeastward Saturday night. We may get remnant scattered showers/t’storms from this Sunday morning as it gradually dies out. After lows in the 60s, highs Sunday will run in the mid 80s with partly cloudy skies.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will crank up to 25 mph once the warm front passes with dew points rising from the 50s to the mid 60s.
Meanwhile, new severe t’storms will develop over Minnesota & Iowa.
Sunday night, the mugginess will really begin to come in with lows hardly below 70 on brisk south-southwest winds.
Some t’storms may develop on nose of strong low-level jet aimed right at our area.
Front will stall just north of/atop area Monday-Wednesday. Hot, humid airmass with multiple clusters of t’storms popping along the front on the southern edge of strong westerlies signals MCSs with some severe potential. Locally-heavy rainfall may also occur.
Right now, magnitude of severe, timing of such & overall complexities of outflow boundaries & typical July mesoscale environments prohibit a lot of detail at the moment.
Highs will run well into the 80s to perhaps 90 with dew points in the 70s with south & southwest winds.
I am not 100% sold on front completely clearing area to the south for good late next week. I prefer to keep front perhaps sagging south of area Wednesday, then re-stalling in area Thursday with some t’storms, before pushing it south Friday with a bit cooler, less humid & drier weather. Temperatures will cool a bit to lower 80s with lows near 60.
Looks like front may stall July 14-17 with very warm, humid conditions & additional rounds of some t’storms. Temperatures will tend to run in the 80s to around 90 with lows near 70.