Latest Outlook to Next Monday

June 16th, 2014 at 10:32 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

T’Storms have exited the viewing area this morning.  A few locations picked up over 0.50″ of rainfall, but thankfully no severe weather reports have come in & any storms generally occurred south of U.S. 24.

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Although a few storms are possible today (with highs of 87-91 with heat indices of 92-96), attention will be on potential derecho in the “Ring of Fire” to our northwest today.  It is already in progress in central & eastern Nebraska & may fully evolve & mature as it moves eastward today before reaching Chicago, Milkwaukee, Grand Rapids, Michigan & South Bend by late tonight-Tuesday morning.

Last week & even this weekend, it appeared that this complex of storms might brush our far northern counties.  Right now, it looks like it may stay just north of the viewing area, but it will be monitored.  Stay tuned for updates.

Lows tonight will drop to just 70-75.

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It looks increasingly very hot, humid & capped Tuesday.  Although we will need to watch outflow boundary from morning storm complex/derecho that will sag in, much of the area will be dry & windy.  Surface CAPE of up to 4500 J/kg will exist in area, so any storm that could pop the cap would blow up FAST.  The potential does exist for a few storms to pop through the cap on that boundary.  Highs of 92-95 are likely Tuesday with heat indices of 99-103, but south-southwest winds to 30 mph will help ease the heat some.

Midwest Map I

With lows of only 72-76 Tuesday night, it looks like an MCS with damaging straight-line winds & some hail may occur in the “Ring of Fire”.  It will likely travel from Des Moines to Chicago & Milwaukee to Grand Rapids, South Bend, Fort Wayne, then Detroit, Toledo & Cleveland by Wednesday morning.

Like tonight-Tuesday morning, we will still need to watch to make sure it does not swipe our northern counties.  Right now, it looks like it won’t, but it is such a close call with these MCSs/derechos nearby, it warrants attention to our area.

Midwest Map II

Wednesday looks very hot, humid & quite capped in our area.  Again, another outflow boundary sagging in from morning MCS/derecho to our north will be monitored to see if any storm can pop on it through the cap.  Surface CAPE of up to 4500 J/kg will exist in our area, so if any storm could pop through the cap, it could blow up FAST.  Highs will run 92-96 with heat indices of 100-105.  Once again, a south-southwest wind up to 30 mph will taper the heat some.

Storms are possible Thursday.  It appears that they may organize into a line & be a severe wind threat issue in our area.  We will monitor.  With highs near 90 & dew points in the lower 70s with up to 3000 J/kg surface CAPE & okay/modest shear, severe threat seems reasonable.

The bad news is that we will stay in the “Ring of Fire” through Sunday.  This means storms flirting with us/hitting us off & on Friday-Sunday.  Some may be severe near our area or in our area from time to time.  Highs will cool slightly from the 90s to more the upper 80s, but the high humidity will continue.

FRIDAY:  Current analysis suggests storms will fire in the afternoon as surface CAPE values reach as high as 2500 J/kg.  Some large hail/wind cannot be ruled out as we will be in the “Ring of Fire”.

SATURDAY:  We will be in the “Ring of Fire”.  Currently, surface CAPE values are forecast to be as high as 3200 J/kg with likely outflow boundary stretched across viewing area from overnight storms over northern Illinois & from previous days’ storms.  With us being less capped, storms currently appear as if they will pop pretty easily.  Some large hail/wind cannot be ruled out.

SUNDAY:  An MCS/squall line may pass Sunday as surface cold front passes.  Environment ahead of the front currently looks characterized by up to 3000 J/kg of surface CAPE with modest shear.  Severe wind threat may develop.

Midwest Map IIII

Front will force the heat/humidity & “Ring of Fire” to the southwest by Sunday night-Monday.

Monday-Tuesday looks dry with highs in the 80s & lows in the 60s with less humid conditions.

3 Responses to “Latest Outlook to Next Monday”

  1. Tom says:

    Don’t be fooled by the hot weather this week. Its not going to be a hot Summer. Check out Thunder In Tippecanoe on Facebook. It talks about past El Nino events and what happened in Lafayette.

  2. Thanks, Chad. Tom I will check that out. I don’t think it is going to be a hot summer, either. I think we will have spells just like we have had, hot and humid then storms and cooling off. Repeat ;)

  3. maybelater says:

    I think even the Farmer’s Alamanac says it won’t be a hot summer just humid.

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