10 P.M. Update

April 3rd, 2014 at 9:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Even with strong surface low tracking near Rockford, it appears system will peak in strength soon, then occlude.  This would tend to shunt a major warm-up tonight southeast of our area.

We will warm up, no doubt (50s to near 60), but 60s to 70 will stay south & southeast of the area.

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The cold, cold, icy Great Lakes likely played a role in lack of warm frontal movement northward today & will do so tonight.  Regardless, far southern areas hit 65 today & we will all still warm tonight.

Nasty severe weather outbreak will occurring to our south & southwest, but given developing occlusion & lingering cold north of I-74, it is unlikely severe threat will get north of I-70 in central Indiana tonight.

More rain is possible, with some embedded t’storms, but no severe weather is expected.  Up to 1″ of rainfall is possible, but substantial to significant flooding will not occur.

This warm front & interaction with icy Lakes has been stressful.  Normally, deepening surface low over northern Illinois & impressive reservoir of warm & humidity to our south brings typical April severe weather.  This makes me wonder how these unusually cold Great Lakes with ice will affect upcoming events/temperatures in April.  Quite a gradient is developing between the chill to the north & the impressive warmth to our south  (part of Kentucky 80-85 for past three days).  Such a gradient may enhance severe weather potential here in the coming weeks/months.

Overnight, severe weather & significant flash flooding is likely in the southern part of Indiana & Illinois.  If you are headed that way, be aware of likelihood of numerous road closures.

On another note, a gusty line of showers/t’showers will pass in the morning with a few strong/severe gusts possible as the surface low pivots towards southeastern Wisconsin.  After dry slotting, a few more spotty showers are possible in the afternoon-evening with low stratocumulus clouds & strong west to northwest winds.

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20 Responses to “10 P.M. Update”

  1. Ryan H says:

    Chad, it also makes me wonder how the colder lakes will interact with the much warmer late April/May temperatures and humidity. Could the colder lakes actually make the severe weather around here worse? Or will it temper it as it did today?

  2. O No Moe says:

    Below is from NOAA on the effects of this cold winter and how the ice will effect the area.

    “Spring in much of the U.S. is likely to feature a significant winter hangover, according to a climate outlook the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released on Thursday. The harsh winter in parts of the lower 48 states is likely to lead to above average chances of river flooding in the Midwest, and the near-record high Great Lakes ice cover is expected to cause a cooler-than-average spring from Minnesota all the way east to parts of New York State, NOAA said.

    This winter, Great Lakes ice cover reached its second-highest extent on record since 1973, at 92.2 percent. Such a large area of ice will going to be slow to melt, and will cause areas adjacent to the lakes to be cooler than average, potentially impacting everything from tourism to farming.

    According to Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at the Department of Agriculture, corn farmers in Illinois and Iowa may have to delay planting because of cooler than average weather and a delayed thawing of the ground after such a severe winter. The Midwest region took the brunt of the harshest cold this winter, seven states in the Midwest recording one of their top 10 coldest winters.”

  3. Misty says:

    Chad said that this would not be a colder than normal spring. Hmmm.

  4. Jan says:

    Moe, Did you find out what the white bird was? Just checked in on the Minnesota DNR nest and it is snow covered.

  5. O No Moe says:

    Back in the early 1960′s, my parents took us kids to the Indiana Dunes on Memorial Day. It was very warm sunny day and I couldn’t wait to get the water. I jump in and it felt like the air was knocked out of me. Come to find out, the water temp was in the 40′s. Still didn’t stop us from jumping in and out to cool off.

  6. O No Moe says:

    Jan, I haven’t seen the white bird in a couple of days. It might be an osprey? It looks and hunts like an eagle.

  7. ~Sher~ says:

    Hi Jan..

    Also checked in on the 2 Minnesota Eagle Nests that I watch…

    Feel so bad for these Eagle “families”..1 nest with 3 babies and 1 nest with 3 eggs waiting to hatch..

    Reckon they are used to such weather…know how to “protect” their nests/eggs/babies and probably don’t dislike snow as much as me ;)

    Regardless look forward to SUN in the nests soon..

  8. Jan says:

    Sounds like you have a great view of many varieties of really cool birds. You picked a good spot.

  9. Jan says:

    I feel the same way Sher. I don’t like seeing the harsh weather on them either but with 7000 feathers i suppose some of it may be a relief for them. They sure do keep their eggs and eaglet warm. I wonder if that’s where the phrase “tough old bird” came from.

  10. O No Moe says:

    Yes Jan, I my land runs to the Ell river. Tons of wildlife around here. Over the last 30 years the wile life has exploded.

  11. O No Moe says:

    “Eel”

  12. Misty says:

    I still want to know if this is a colder than normal spring.

  13. Misty says:

    Me thinks so.

  14. Cathy says:

    Wasn’t looking forward to severe weather, but a little disappointed in not getting anything

  15. Jim says:

    Morning everyone. Caution out there . Foggy out there Schools in Newton and Benton County on Delays. Typical. Spring situation. Have a good day all. Jim.

  16. TyLeR in LaFaYeTtE says:

    Misty… Spring has only been here 2 weeks! Lol still over 2 months left of spring

  17. The front has come roaring through Remington!!

  18. Bud says:

    The wind has just picked up here also MA. Picked up .04″ rain overnight. The colder air won out preventing severe weather here. The 60′s & 70′s didn’t reach us. Did warm to 55* though. Currently a light drizzle.

    Looks like a gloomy day ahead. I guess I’ll create my own sunshine by saying hi to a stranger and helping a senior cross the street even it they don’t want to go.

  19. What a great plan, Bud!! My temp went to only 47* and that was at 12:02 a.m. this morning. Rain gauge has gone bonkers again so have no total but thinking just a drizzle with the front AND as the sky fell with the fog. Man it was pea soup here this morning. Surprised there was no school delay. Wind seems to be blowing steady around 18 mph right now.

    Okay, have to leave…later!

    MA

  20. Jim says:

    Typical early spring day. Yuk. Wind WSW 28. Temp 37. Kentland.

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