10 P.M. UpdateApril 3rd, 2014 at 9:40 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Even with strong surface low tracking near Rockford, it appears system will peak in strength soon, then occlude. This would tend to shunt a major warm-up tonight southeast of our area.
We will warm up, no doubt (50s to near 60), but 60s to 70 will stay south & southeast of the area.
The cold, cold, icy Great Lakes likely played a role in lack of warm frontal movement northward today & will do so tonight. Regardless, far southern areas hit 65 today & we will all still warm tonight.
Nasty severe weather outbreak will occurring to our south & southwest, but given developing occlusion & lingering cold north of I-74, it is unlikely severe threat will get north of I-70 in central Indiana tonight.
More rain is possible, with some embedded t’storms, but no severe weather is expected. Up to 1″ of rainfall is possible, but substantial to significant flooding will not occur.
This warm front & interaction with icy Lakes has been stressful. Normally, deepening surface low over northern Illinois & impressive reservoir of warm & humidity to our south brings typical April severe weather. This makes me wonder how these unusually cold Great Lakes with ice will affect upcoming events/temperatures in April. Quite a gradient is developing between the chill to the north & the impressive warmth to our south (part of Kentucky 80-85 for past three days). Such a gradient may enhance severe weather potential here in the coming weeks/months.
Overnight, severe weather & significant flash flooding is likely in the southern part of Indiana & Illinois. If you are headed that way, be aware of likelihood of numerous road closures.
On another note, a gusty line of showers/t’showers will pass in the morning with a few strong/severe gusts possible as the surface low pivots towards southeastern Wisconsin. After dry slotting, a few more spotty showers are possible in the afternoon-evening with low stratocumulus clouds & strong west to northwest winds.