This Morning-Today Through August 12July 22nd, 2013 at 1:21 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
HIGHLY-VARIABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING………………..
Rainfall was highly-variable lastnight & early this morning from a multi-cellular cluster of showers/storms. I had reports of several trees struck by lightning, & a couple of homes. This email came from Mike Garrison:
We had a very large pine tree hit by lighting during last nights storm. If you towards the bottom of split, you can see daylight coming through. This is within 20 feet of hitting 2 high voltage powerlines should it fall. The tree is split all the way to the ground. It is also in danger of hitting the neighbors house.
I measured 0.90″ here at WLFI (with it falling at a rate of over 2″ an hour at one point!), Bud had 1.73″ on the southeast-side of Lafayette. Ken in Mulberry reported 0.87″ with Chuck northeast of Frankfort with 0.63″, but Mary Anne had just 0.19″! Teri reported a whooping 2.59″ on the southside of Lafayette at her place.
The Purdue Airport measured 1.34″, while our Atlanta station measured 0.03″ & Kokomo 0.12″. Covington measured 1.67″ with 1.36″ at Crawfordsville, but Ladoga received just 0.50″.
Maps From National Weather Service & CoCoRAHs (I posted from totals to the CoCoRAHs map):
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING…………….FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT-MORNING…………..
After the wave of showers & t’storms this morning, we will see a lull for today. Any sort of shower/t’shower looks isolated.
Tonight, an elongated MCS (complex of showers/storms) may organize to our northwest. Instability & favorable upper winds suggest enough of a threat to warrant Watch(es) in Iowa/Wisconsin/Kansas/Missouri this evening & we will track this evolving MCS through the evering & night.
Maintained by strong low-level jet & nice upper winds venting the top of the complex, severe weather is likely Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa to northwestern Illinois & Missouri.
The MCS may hold on just long enough for a couple strong/severe gusts here late tonight-early Tuesday as it progresses southeastward.
FEW SPOTTY P.M. STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…………..
A few isolated/widely-scattered showers/storms may pop on actual cold front Tuesday afternoon-evening. Those do not look severe, right now, but we will watch. The main core of stronger upper winds will by-pass our area with any of those storms, preventing really good organization.
COOLER, PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY…………….
After that, the rest of the week looks good with highs of 77-85 & lows of 54-60 & lower humidity.
NEXT POTENTIAL OF SOME STORMS: SATURDAY……………….
The next potential of some t’storms will be Saturday.
Of note on Saturday is 1) +60 kt. upper jet streak nosing in from the northwest 2) rather low freezing levels for end of July with upper 30s only 1.5 miles off the ground 3) dry air at mid-levels. 4) Surface cold front & amplifying (strengthening) mid-level shortwave (cold pocket upstairs) pivoting through.
This would all point to severe potential. However, surface CAPE (instability) is currently only projected to reach 1200 J/kg, tempering substantial severe potential.
Regardless, such dynamics would support diurnally-driven (driven by sunshine/heating) multi-cellular storms (isolated supercell with large hail) with a some wind & hail even some reaching severe levels. We will watch.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NICE, PLEASANT WEATHER………………….
This will be followed by more nice, pleasant weather with low humidity & highs of 77-83 with overnight lows of 52-57 Sunday-next Wednesday.
ANOTHER HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE, THEN STORMY PERIOD…………………..FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PLEASANT WEATHER………….
After that, it appears the heat & humidity will return with stormy weather at the end of the heat as the 10th approaches. Signs point towards another cool-down, albeit brief, after that.