Outlook Today-July 10June 24th, 2013 at 12:39 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Scattered storms will pop daily, just as they have since Friday. Forming on outflow boundary & some seemingly randomly, they will tend to be pulsey & disorganized. However, they will have the potential to put out localized torrential rainfall, lots of thunder & lightning, perhaps a bit of pea hail & perhaps a wet microburst or two. They may briefly organize into a line on old boundaries if sufficient cold pool can develop.
That said, I like 30% coverage daily (a peak trending towards the afternoon-evening) Monday-Wednesday.
Surface cold front, overlaid by better mid- & upper-level winds, may develop an organized squall line that passes Wednesday evening. Pockets of damaging straight-line winds would be the threat from this.
After hot high temperatures near 91 Monday-Wednesday (overnight lows only around 72), it will cool off Thursday-Saturday with highs from around 80 to the lower 80s (with less humid weather) as rain departs.
SATURDAY (JUNE 29) TO THURSDAY (JULY 4)………..
Hotter will return with upper 80s by mid-next week & then highs near 90 to the lower 90s with high humidity. A few storms may pop Saturday, June 29 to Tuesday July 2, just in the heating of the day & on any outflow boundaries surging out of any MCSs (storm clusters) to our northwest & north.
It appears cold front & better dynamics will arrive & pass around July 3 with potential of more widespread storms & perhaps a severe weather threat. High will run from around 90 to the lower 90s.
Right now, it appears that front will be east of us on July 4th. At the present time, it appears a surface high may be on top of us or nearby with sunshine & fair-weather cumulus clouds, north breezes & highs around 81 with lower humidity. Data suggests low temperature of 55-60 on the night of July 4th.
We will watch this, as any change in timing of that front will change timing of the cooler air & storm potential. Tweaking is still possible, despite an overall pretty consistent July4th forecast for a while.
JULY 5-JULY 10…………
It will warm back up again & turn hot & humid by July 6 with highs in the 85-90 range & dew points back up to 65-70. By July 8-10, highs could be back to around 90 to 95 with dew points in the lower 70s.
With broad flow from the Gulf of Mexico & main storm clusters staying way north & northwest of the viewing area, it looks like daily potential of some storms July 7-10. Stronger westerlies will lie way, way up in Canada with much of the nation in zonal flow, dominated by upper ridging except in New England & in the Pacific Northwest.
T’storm occurrence will be dominated by smaller mesoscale feature & diffuse triggers in a stagnant, hot, humid pattern with slow movement of any storms that pop here.