UpdateMay 9th, 2013 at 3:48 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
4:45 P.M. UPDATE:
Whether it be from the current band of rain/storms moving through or any of those storms east of St. Louis, the best potential of any isolated, sporadic gusts or small hail would be southeast of Lafayette.
3:48 P.M. POST:
I still like just “couple/few severe storms embedded” this late afternoon-evening. Main reason for lack of more widespread severe potential is that good Effective Bulk Shear for severe weather is BEHIND the line of storms & not with the storms, nor in front of them.
If this better shear overlaid the line (& there was a bit more instability), then severe threat would be more widespread.
Regardless, with some okay effective bulk shear & 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE, be aware that a severe gust/hail here or there will be possible as the line passes through.
There are pockets of 48-53 mph wind gusts in the line right now, which are moving northeastward toward our area.
We do need to watch any renegade scattered storms that can pop near St. Louis the center of the surface low. There, shear is higher & there is some sun. Even ith all the shear, however, they may not hold together up to our area well, as instability wanes this evening. We will watch it.