The Spring & Growing Confidence of Forecast Changes For Late This Week-Early Next WeekApril 28th, 2013 at 9:58 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
THE DICOTOMY OF MILWAUKEE VS OUR VIEWING AREA……..
I was up in Wisconsin with my wife, daughter & wife’s father this weekend. Seeing family & friends, it was a great time. As we arrived back in the viewing area & Lafayette this evening, I was amazed at the vegetation advancement after the 66 at West Lafayette Saturday (both WLFI & Purdue Ag Farm hit 66) & 60 today with only 50s lastnight. Our tulips at the house burst into blossom, the cottonwoods now have leaves, all of the Silver maples are rapidly leafing out with one tree I saw that has leaves half full-grown. Norway Maples have leaves, as do some Sugar Maples with forest understories greened up. Even the Tuliptree leaves exploded in size over two days. The White, Black, Chinkapin & Northern Red Oaks are beginning to blossom. The Eastern Redbuds are blossoming. Even Flowering dogwoods are beginning to open & crabapples are blooming. I think our lawn fescue grew a full 1-2″ in two days.
Another thing that amazed me was the difference in vegetation advancement for spring from West Lafayette to Wakesha, Wisconsin (western suburb of Milwaukee). There, Bradford Pear buds are just now swollen, the crabapple & serviceberry buds are just swelling & the forests look like winter.
My wife’s Uncle Lonnie has a fine oak-hickory forest on this property at Wakesha. There are no mayapples up, no trilliums or dutchman’s britches in the forest…….no morels. It was like walking through a forest here back in mid-March (& its almost May). The Saucer Magnolias look as they do in February, though the Silver & Red maples are budding, as are the American Elms. They informed me that the daffodils are just now opening. They are a good month behind us with their first 65-degree day only a few days ago, though they did see 64 yesterday (it was nice) & 66 today. In classic Greenland Block pattern, the trees are advanced more in central Maine than southern Wisconsin (saw pics of greening birch & aspen forests with red maples carrying young seeds).
The Bradford Pears are blossoming up to about Schererville & the Norway Maples are blossoming up to about Gurnee, Illinois (near Wisconsin line). The Boxelders are blooming up to about Gurnee, as well. North of there, the bright green grass & dandelions quickly fade to late winter-early spring color with brown & gray forests.
The Eastern Redbuds are really not blooming any farther north than West Lafayette, though I noticed some Black oaks budding as far north as Morocco (though not the extent of West Lafayette, Lafayette & Frankfort areas).
I was told it was an unusually late spring by several folks there & the temperature data proves it. This is apart of the very late spring that has been experienced from Chicago to Minneapolis to the Dakotas. Even in the Midwest, Plains & parts of the South have had a sluggish spring (not as much as here & not nearly as much as areas north & northwest of here though).
THIS PAST WEEKEND-TOMORROW……….
The rain is gone after bringing from 0.07″ in our far northwest to 0.67″ in our far southeast parts of our viewing area. I measured 0.38″ at WLFI. The Purdue Airport measured 0.35″.
Overnight, with mostly cloudy skies, areas of fog will continue to develop, lasting into Monday morning.
With clearing skies tomorrow & south winds, temperatures will rise to the 70s to near 80.
FIRST LOWER 80S IN THE AREA TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY………
It still appears the first greater than 80-degree temperatures will arrive into the viewing area Tuesday & Wednesday!
The Purdue Ag Farm COOP station, Throckmorton Ag Farm COOP site & the WLFI studios have all reached 80 this year (back on April 9th). The Purdue Airport has not with 79 on April 9th.
Morocco, Crawfordsville & Covington weather stations have all hit 80 this year (April 9th), but no other station of ours at WLFI has. Most that have not will hit that mark or even exceed it this week.
Overnight lows Tuesday night & Wednesday night will likely not drop below 60 degrees.
It does look dry, though a frontal boundary will be close to the viewing area to our north. We will need to watch it. If it makes a slight shift south, then a few storms will need to be added to the forecast for Tuesday & Wednesday, but right it looks dry.
BLOCKING PATTERN (REALLY EXPANSION OF GREENLAND BLOCK)……RAIN POTENTIAL (FEW SEVERE STORMS?) & COOL-DOWN (THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS SUBSTANTIAL AS FIRST THOUGHT WITH A SHIFT OF IT TO THE WEST)………..
The potential of showers & t’storms will increase Thursday (few possibly severe), not Wednesday. It appears the next system will slow as an Omega Block pattern begins to take hold with ridge in Northeast & East U.S. & trough in the Plains with unseasonbly cool weather there. It is actually a large EXPANSION of the Greenland Block.
Now, at first it appeared this system would come through, bring us showers/storms with a few potential severe storms (wind/hail), then we would have a couple of frost/freeze nights with about 3 days of highs in the 50s to around 60.
Course, the timing of the front has changed (Thursday, not Wednesday).
It still looks like an unseasonably cool airmass will penetrate the heart of the U.S. with 30s down to Oklahoma by next weekend.
HOWEVER, new data suggests that the Omega Block (it has been a winter & spring of Blocks in 2013 with Greenland Block being main player) will become very, very firmly established in northeast/east U.S.
Data suggests the Block will cause our front to move through, then STOP LIKE IT HIT A BRICK WALL, THEN MOVE BACK WEST as an upper low ejects out of Texas & Arkansas. This low (if models are correct……….BUT THEY MAY NOT BE), sit in the Plains & just spin & spin & spin & wobble around backward, forward, do a few loops & be pretty much stuck from Omega Block.
What does this mean for us?
1. It does not get too cold (highs 60s [70?]), while the Plains shiver in highs in the 40s & 50s & lows in the 30s to Oklahoma (perhaps even some wet snow).
2. Scattered instability showers & t’storms everyday pivoting around low into our area Friday through next Tuesday before pattern breaks some.
This does not look like FLOODING RAINFALL for the area, but scattered 40% coverage run of the mill scattered showers/storms each day with isolated flash flooding in any heavier downpours. Given cold profiles, occasional strong jet winds in the atmosphere with some sun developing underneath upper low’s cold pool, a few hailers (even isolated severe gust or two) would be possible (perhaps a Slight Risk day from the hail/brief tornado/cold air funnel given spin of low [vorticity]).
Let’s keep an eye on this to see what model output shows over the next day or two. This certainly would be an anomalous regime & a bit of an oddity!