Wave #1 of Showers Passed Lastnight-Early Sunday A.M., Now 3 More (Heaviest Later Wednesday-Wednesday Night))April 7th, 2013 at 10:23 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Wave #1 Passed Saturday Night-Early Sunday Morning:
Few scattered showers/t’showers passed Saturday night-early Sunday morning. Coverage was generally around 30% with up to 0.15″ measured. I measured 0.01″ at West Lafayette.
Highs Sunday ran 65-73.
Wave #2 of Rainfall:
This wave of scattered showers & t’storms will pass Sunday night to even Monday morning with 45% coverage & lows in the 50s. Heaviest rainfall in this wave will tend to pass north & northwest of our area north of the warm front. Coverage will run around 45%.
It appears a few very widely-scattered to isolated showers & t’storms are possible Monday afternoon(20-25% coverage), otherwise it looks partly to mostly cloudy & windy with highs of 68-73.
Wave #3 of Rainfall:
After only a few widely-scattered showers/t’storms possible Monday night, a wave of a some scattered scattered showers & t’storms is possible Tuesday with lots of clouds with sun & windy conditions. Rainfall coverage will run around 40%. High temperatures of 68-73 are likely Tuesday after a morning low of just 59.
Wave #4 of Rainfall (A Need to Add Severe Potential Here & Trend to Shift Heaviest Axis of Rainfall):
With strong south winds Tuesday night, lows will only drop to around 61! I am thinking more & more like Tuesday night will be totally dry & just overcast.
It appears any severe threat up to Tuesday night & through Wednesday morning will be confined to areas west & southwest of here.
However, the main wave of rain will likely get here Wednesday p.m-night. With a high temperature of 69-75 with windy conditions, squall line of t’storms looks like an increasing threat. The storms may move northeast & train over the area a bit with a severe threat (most likely evening-night), then an area of stratified rain may follow behind the squall line with even a few showers lingering into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop into the 40s by early Thursday morning.
So, I still feel the need to keep us in the severe threat across our area Wednesday with main mode being a squall line with pockets/swaths of damaging straight-line wind & perhaps an isolated tornado. A slightly enhanced tornado threat may develop near the warm front in the far northern portion of the viewing area.
Also, in terms of the rainfall, it appears there is a definite trend towards the heaviest 2-3″ rains falling just north & northwest of the viewing area, but 1-2″ still seems reasonable for the viewing area for now.
A few lingering showers are possible early Thursday, followed by mostly cloudy skies, windy conditions & highs in the 48-55 range.
After 32-35 Thursday night with partial clearing, mostly sunny skies & highs of 53-58 look to greet Friday. A frost/freeze is likely Friday night with lows of 28-32.
For the Challenge 5K Run/Walk at Purdue Saturday morning, it looks clear & cold with that 28-32 & frost very early, followed by mostly sunny skies & highs in the lower 60s by afternoon (59-64 across the viewing area). Winds look easterly at 5-10 mph in the morning & east to southeasterly through the day. This is still nearly a week out, so tweaks to this forecast are possible as new data continues to flow in.
Clouds will likely increase late in the day, followed by mostly cloudy skies at times Saturday night a few isolated showers as a warm front passes through. Lows will run in the 40s.
After those morning lows in the 40s with a few showers, highs of 68-73 are likely by afternoon with partly cloudy skies with warm front lifting northward.