Another Beauty of a Day! First 70° of 2013 Tomorrow for Part of Area…….Some Slight Changes to Next Week’s ForecastApril 5th, 2013 at 10:03 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
WARMER WEATHER & PINNING DOWN TIMING OF WAVES OF SHOWERS/T’STORMS……………..
Nice Day……..Nice Weekend with Windy Weather Saturday (Elevated Fire Danger, Too):
Today was nice, but with that back-door front, highs varied from low 50s to mid 60s from northeast to southwest. We hit 60 here at WLFI. Tonight, temperatures vary from 34 to 45 from northeast to southwest across the viewing area. With increasing high & mid clouds with front now moving back north as a warm front, we may drop a few more degrees, then tend to level off overnight-early Saturday morning.
Saturday still looks windy with gusts up to 40 mph at times from the south & south-southwest. Some gusts to 45 mph are possible in Newton, Jasper & Benton counties. Skies look partly cloudy with high & mid clouds & highs 67-71 degrees. Dew points will run in the middle to upper 30s, leading to low relative humidity levels. This, combined with the strong winds, dry dormant grass of previous season’s growth & dry lift litter in woodlands, will create an elevated fire danger. Threat will rapidly decrease in the evening as higher dew points arrive & some rain moves in.
Highs of 65-71 still look good for Sunday with skies becoming partly cloudy & less wind around.
The new data looks warmer to me Monday-Wednesday, but not a lot more (bumped numbers up a degree or two during day & a couple of degrees at night). I went with 66-73 nearly each day with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
It looks breezy to windy from the south & southeast Monday through Wednesday.
Wave #1 of Rainfall:
The scattering of showers/t’showers will be confined to Saturday evening-night & perhaps early, early Sunday. Coverage looks to run 30%.
Wave #2 of Rainfall:
This wave of scattered showers & t’storms will pass Sunday evening-Sunday night to even Monday morning with 45% coverage. Heaviest rainfall in this wave will tend to pass north & northwest of our area north of the warm front.
It appears a few widely-scattered showers & t’storms are possible Monday (30% coverage), otherwise it looks lots of clouds mixed with sun & windy conditions. I bumped high up to around 71 Monday.
Wave #3 of Rainfall:
After only a few widely-scattered showers/t’storms possible Monday night, a wave of some scattered t’storms is possible Tuesday with lots of clouds with sun & windy conditions. Rainfall coverage will run around 40%. I bumped high up to around 71 Tuesday after a morning low of just 58.
Wave #4 of Rainfall (A Need to Add Severe Potential Here & Trend to Shift Heaviest Axis of Rainfall):
With strong south winds Tuesday night, lows will only drop to around 61! I am thinking more & more like Tuesday night will be totally dry & just overcast.
It appears any severe threat up to Tuesday night & through Wednesday morning will be confined to areas west & southwest of here.
However, the main wave of rain will likely get here Wednesday p.m. With a high temperature near 68 with windy conditions, squall line of t’storms looks like an increasing threat. The storms may move northeast & train over the area a bit with a severe threat, then an area of stratified rain may follow behind the squall line with even a few showers lingering into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop into the 40s by early Thursday morning.
So, I feel the need to expand the severe threat into our area Wednesday with main mode being a squall line with pockets/swaths of damaging straight-line wind & perhaps an isolated tornado. Also, in terms of the rainfall, it appears there is a definite trend towards the heaviest 2-3″ rains falling just north & northwest of the viewing area, but 1-2″ still seems reasonable for the viewing area for now.