Significant Snow to Our Southwest Thursday-Friday with Potential of It Nearby or Here Sunday-Monday

March 20th, 2013 at 9:58 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

In looking at years past with cold so late, there tends to be a silver lining.  If you do not warm up early, you tend to bleed the supply of cold air away, decreasing the potential of damaging late spring freezes.  Also, with vegetation largely remaining dormant, plants are allowed to bloom & blossom with less likelihood of damaging freezes later in the season.  This scenario occurred in about 85% of the years with this type of cold in late March.

There are exceptions to every rule, but you tend to pay for early spring warmth (look at last year & the severe hard freeze in April that wiped out fruit crops).  However, you earn nice warmth after putting up with very cold weather & snow so late in the spring! 

In 1899, we had significant snow in late March with 2.2″ on March 28 & 4.5″ on March 30-31.  The warmest temperature in all of March was 67 (similar to our March with warmest temperature at 66) with lots of highs in the 30s late in the month.  The high was 27 with a low of 15 on April 1 at Purdue.  It was raw until April 8, then warmed dramatically.  From April 11 to May 3, 11 days had highs in the 80s, including record-hot weather late month with 89 degrees on April 29.  The low temperatures were in the middle to upper 60s.  Rainfall was much-below normal for April.

However, March 1900 was cold with snow & we had 1″ of snow on April 11.  It did eventually warm up nicely towards the end of the month, though, with solid mid to upper 70s April 24 onward into May.

TONIGHT:

With broken cloud deck to solid overcast & lows in the teens tonight, flurries are likely.  Given frozen ground & very cold surfaces, any flurries could lightly dust parts of the area tonight-early Thursday morning.  Wind chills will hover in the single digits.

12

TOMORROW:

Partly cloudy skies are a good bet with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  Winds will be brisk from the northwest.  Looks like a mix of cumulus/stratocumulus clouds & also some high cirrus from the southwest, despite some good Hi-Res model depictions of a sunny afternoon.

TOMORROW NIGHT: 

Skies will slowly clear with lows in the mid teens to around 20.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:

High & mid clouds will tend to increase with highs of 35-42.  Lows will run in the lower to middle 20s.

SATURDAY:

Partly cloudy skies will dominate with high- & mid-level clouds with highs warmer in the 43-49.  Skies will quickly go overcast Saturday night with brisk east to northeast wind developing & lows near 31.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:

New data tonight points towards more & more of a snow event Sunday-Monday with heavy snow across the viewing area.  Reluctant to pull the trigger on this so far out, will go with rain changing to snow with heaviest band just north of here & potential of this heavy snow to affect there area if more southerly track comes more & more dominant in model runs.  Heavy band to our north would have 6-12″ of snowfall with it.  We really need to watch this storm track & make sure that band does not move south.  Model runs tonight are pointing toward that, but it is a bit too early to go there (it being Wednesday & this system moving in Sunday).

Regardless, precipitation would tend to begin Sunday morning & continue through Sunday into Sunday night, then end Monday with brisk east to northeast, then north winds.  How gusty the wind get will be determined on how deep surface low gets & where Canadian high sets up.

GFS has bulls-eye 8-12″ totals in heart of the viewing area, but we will see.  Such a snowfall so late in the season is definitely a rarity, but it has happened!

I like a high of 38 Sunday, low of 32 Sunday night & 34 Monday.

 

10 Responses to “Significant Snow to Our Southwest Thursday-Friday with Potential of It Nearby or Here Sunday-Monday”

  1. Ryan H says:

    Hey Chad, do you think you might do a severe weather Q&A online like you did in the fall for winter time?

  2. Ryan H says:

    Oooo, I like it when Chad starts thinking about the “trigger”. This could be our storm!

  3. Matt says:

    Of course. We have plans to spend a couple days with the kids in Indy starting Monday including a Pacers game that i have already bought tickets for. Great timing for a snow storm to finally brew up. It is spring right? I have seen some early projections on other sites as well and they are quite significant.

  4. Jim says:

    Go Stoogies

  5. Mike says:

    be awesome, just hope it warms up to 60s and 70s soon after

  6. Ryan H says:

    NAM seems on board right now too.

  7. RON says:

    Earlier GFS run had us getting 18″ of snow! Crazy!

  8. Jim says:

    Gfs going southbound

  9. CHEBON says:

    Jim,does GFS going southbound mean more snow for Indy

  10. Brian says:

    March 31st last year my apricots were already thumbnail size, this year were just to the bud swelling stage…what a difference a year makes.

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