I am monitoring radar trends & will dig into the new 18z model run over the next 1-2 hours. I will have another post at 3 p.m.
HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
REPORTS OF UP TO 2″ PER HOUR RATES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 700 MB LOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW
12Z LOCAL HI-RES SIMULATIONS HAVE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE INTENSITY
OF OMEGA/FORCING IN THE LOW-LEVELS IN THE 18-00Z TIMEFRAME. MORE
FOCUSED BETWEEN I-80 AND I-88 CORRIDORS OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN.
THE BEST FORCING BAND APPEARS TO PIVOT IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE VERY STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON…ALONG WITH SOME -EPV IN THE MID LEVELS…INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE INVERTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING…LIKELY RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
HEAVY SNOW RATES IN A BAND RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND…IT APPEARS THAT 7 TO 10 INCHES AMOUNTS…WITH SOME AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
It has transitioned to all snow here now and its beginning to accumulate on the grassy surfaces. I just went out and took a few pictures to kind of keep track an hour by hour blog for myself and for you. All I can say is, ” Here we go”, let the fun begin.
Kentland heavy snow visibility way down. Roads bad
Starting to snow in Lafayette near Dayton
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