Update on the Mixed Precipitation & SnowMarch 4th, 2013 at 10:13 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
New data caused me to only alter totals a tiny bit. This system is similar in many ways to a system in late February 1994 when 2-8″ snowfall fell across the viewing area with the heaviest totals in the northwest areas. I put a lot of stock in that analog system with its similar dynamics & superficial upper level & surface features.
There is also a lot of dry air in Texas from downsloping winds today. Record/near record heat (88 Dallas) with very to extremely low dew points occurred today with some places in Texas seeing 95 with dew points at only around 10! At least some of that dry air may eventually be pulled into the upper system tomorrow night (despite surface low in Kentucky). It may not shut the snow off, but it may cut the snow a hair. That, combined with relatively rapid movement prevented me from really raising totals much & also prevented totals of 10″ to even 12″ in the north & up to 6″ in say Montgomery & Tippecanoe counties or 7 or 8″ in White County.
So, 2-7″ will still do for the area, right now (with gusty winds tomorrow night of 40, even 43 mph in places with blowing & drifting snow [even with it being wet]). Be aware of the mix tonight-tomorrow morning of rain, freezing rain, sleet & snow. Minor ice/snow accumulations still look good with highest accumulations north of U.S. 24 as cold, dry ar bleeds in from the east while precipitation blossoms with low-level jet & forcing.
We will make changes, if needed. If I think we need to shift heavier snowfall totals southward, we will. Right now, this forecast looks good pending next new model runs early Tuesday morning & mid-morning Tuesday (06z & 12z).