Winter Event Summary…………Now-March 13 Outlook

February 22nd, 2013 at 1:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

HUGE thank you to all of you for reporting your snow, sleet & glaze ice accumulation totals!  You our as much apart of Weather Team 18 as myself, Cameron or Jessie!  We could not have tracked this event without you.  Thank you all for your dedication!

Strong dynamics, forcing & +55 mph low-level jet led to widespread snow, sleet & freezing rain across the area Thursday evening-night.  Bits of 50-100 J/kg of elevated CAPE (instability) with the afformentioned factors led to thunder & lightning reports from Jasper, White, Cass & Miami counties with sleet & freezing rain.

Snow & sleet totals ranged between 1 & 3″ with the accumulations compacting & melting by Friday morning.  0.10″ or less of glaze ice occurred.  Highest snow & sleet total was Kentland with 3″ (from Jim) with second highest at 2.8″ at Morocco (from Bill)  & third highest 2.4″ 3 miles northeast of Frankfort (from Chuck).  Measured 1.2″ at WLFI with 0.08″ glaze ice.  Had another report of 1.2″ of snow & sleet from CoCoRHas observer on northeast side of Lafayette with 1.0″ in western Tippecanoe County.

Winds gusted as high as 38 mph during the system with gusts of 38 mph measured at Morocco, Fowler & Pine Village (Autumn’s weather station).  At WLFI, peak gust was 35 mph with gust to 33 mph at the Purdue Airport.  Winds diminished greatly Friday morning, but began to pick back up after midday period.

As of Friday, 2 p.m. temperatures were all above freezing with significant melting continuing.

NOW-THIS WEEKEND………..

Temperatures have dropped at or below 32 over a chunk of the viewing area.  This will create patchy black ice as moisture re-freezes.  Also, there are some patches of drizzle in our eastern counties, but this has changed to some grainy flurries this evening.  The flurries will continue from time to time this evening-tonight.  Low temperatures by early Saturday morning will drop to around 23 degrees.

The weekend looks dry, but persistent stratocumulus will be around at the very least in scattered to broken form.  So, mostly to perhaps partly cloudy skies, at times, looks good.  Meanwhile, Nor’Easter will roar up through the Northeast U.S. this weekend.  Thing is, this one will not have as much cold air as previous ones this winter.  So, a lot of the precipitation will be wind-driven rainfall.  HOWEVER, 8-12″ of snow is likely in parts of New York state, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts & Maine.

MONDAY (FEBRUARY 25)-THURSDAY (FEBRUARY 28)…………..

Storm system will bring rain & 40s P.M. Monday, but as storm deepens & pivots to the northeast over Michigan, scattered snow showers will likely pivot in Monday night-Tuesday with 1″ or less of accumulation at times in places (with highs in the 30s).  Winds look gusty, especially Tuesday with northwest gusts to 35 mph at times.  Winds later Monday-Monday night may gust to 31 mph.

This storm system looks to bring us 0.20-0.40″ of rainfall, but 6-12″ of snowfall may occur from northern Kansas to northern Missouri, southern Iowa & then northwestern Illinois.

Wednesday-Thursday looks dry & fairly seasonable with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

 

FRIDAY (MARCH 1)-SUNDAY (MARCH 3)…………

Vigorous upper trough & a surface cold front will pass Friday-Saturday.  Snow showers are likely with this & generally 1″ or less of accumulation.  However, instability parameters & strength of cold air aloft may support isolated 1-1.5″ amounts with gusty northwest winds to 35 mph.  Highs will be only around 30.  March will come in as a lion with the wind & snow showers.  It will be unseasonably cold for early March!

Some snow showers/flurries may even linger into Sunday with highs only in the middle to upper 20s with gusty northwest winds to 32 mph. 

MONDAY (MARCH 4)-FRIDAY (MARCH 8)…………

Considerable upper trough will be with us during this period with persisten waves of instability strat0cumulus & cumulus amidst a couple waves of scattered snow showers & highs only in the 30s.

SATURDAY (MARCH 9) – SUNDAY (MARCH 10)………..

Much, much warmer & nicer weather will move in during this time.  In fact, high temperatures may reach 50 Saturday, 58 Sunday & 67 Monday.

MONDAY (MARCH 10)-TUESDAY (MARCH 11)……….

A cold front with some showers & t’storms are possible in this period.  Whether we hit 70 for the first time of 2013 is possibly in our far south, but 67 looks good for West Lafayette & 64 at Rochester & Rensselaer.  I like 70 at Covington, 69 Crawfordsville & 68 Frankfort. 

MARCH 12 (WEDNESDAY)-MARCH 13 (THURSDAY)……….

Looks like cloudiness & 40s with gusty cool winds during this period.

11 Responses to “Winter Event Summary…………Now-March 13 Outlook”

  1. RON says:

    Your forecast was spot on. Good job, Chad!

  2. Lori says:

    You were right on once again Chad!

  3. Jim says:

    You where on Chad awsome

  4. Autumn says:

    Sorry I didn’t give snow totals.. It was sort of confusing.. The type of precip & the wind blowing it bare in some areas & drift in others. We had multiple brown outs last night. Thot maybe we’d lose power.. We have two wood burning stoves so power outage isn’t so bad for us but not so much for those who have no heat. Never happened here tho.

  5. Jim says:

    Autumn glad you made it thru. Moe

  6. Cathy says:

    You did it again Chad, hit it dead on!!!! You are the MAN!!!! lol All i can say about mid March is HURRY!!!!!!!!!!! Can’t wait for the warmer temps

  7. JEM says:

    And so with this comes the end of Winter 2013. Sorry snow fans – looks like we are done, although we still have our chances for the infamous March ice storm.

    To the garden I must go to get ready for planting tasty things to eat. And praying the drought doesn’t continue though I am afraid it will.

  8. Jim says:

    JEM not quite yet my Stoogies have other plans. Hate to hold up you garden. But my stooge madman monster and Charlene are looking at a blast next weekend at sectional time. Do hold off fur another week. Thank Moe

  9. Kathy says:

    Sectionals always bring us some sort of crappy weather….it just would not be right if it didn’t lol but lQQking forward towards spring maybe next year guys on the snow seems like it should be our turn next year!!!! Have nice and safe weekend everyone!

  10. Melissa says:

    Is that it?? Is winter finally over??

  11. Jim says:

    We are not done yet

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