Update

February 20th, 2013 at 10:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I like the GFS model for this system Thursday evening-night to Friday morning.

I feel the NAM model is overdoing the snow & total precipitation in general.  Its Skew-T looks too “pro-snow” & it seems to have a bit of an issue figuring out deeper moisture & dew points well southwest of us.

For one, dry air will entrench ahead of the precipitation AND in the mid-level dry slot that will come in Friday morning (though LOW-LEVELS will be saturated & will support drizzle/patchy misty rain).  This cuts snow totals. Also, I think quite a bit of sleet may mix in the snow & may even change to all sleet for a while.

Now, 3-5″ in eastern Illinois & 4-8″ around Chicago look good, but here I like 1-3″ of snow & sleet with 1/10″ of glaze ice.  It still appears the higher-end of the spectrum of snow/sleet totals will tend to be in our northern & northwestern counties of the viewing area.  It will turn breezy to windy later tomorrow-tomorrow night with winds subsiding Friday morning.  Winds may gust to 30 mph at times, though no power outages are expected.

Despite the dry air ahead of the precipitation, I still would prefer to keep the “southwest counties far game for precipitation after 5 p.m.” & “entire area from Covington & Veedersburg to Rochester & from Atlanta & Tipton to Morocco in the precipitation by midnight”.  So, in that post-5 p.m. period to midnight precipitation will overspread the area from southwest to northeast.

Reason is that I like the forcing parameters for precipitation, regardless of the dry air.  However, putting this system against all analog data back to 1970, I do have in the back of my mind potential of delaying the precipitation some if the initial forcing isn’t as strong as I am currently thinking.  In about half the cases with this data set, there were some issues with precipitation saturating the low levels & getting it to the ground in a timely manner.  This was not as much of an issue in scenarios where the forcing is what I think it will be.

All this said, the forecast remains unchanged.

 

//

38 Responses to “Update”

  1. Chris in Tipton says:

    I think we all are anxiously awaiting!!!

  2. Monster says:

    Chris you think it changed at all?

  3. Chris in Tipton says:

    Not much really….

  4. Monster says:

    Bummer

  5. Randy says:

    The snow drought donut hole over the northern half of Indiana continues!

  6. Jim says:

    Monster 3 inches. Looks like it.

  7. Jim says:

    Stoogies lets get the shuffle going.

  8. Chris in Tipton says:

    We have a couple of more chances for precip next week……anyone want to guess what we will see?

  9. Doug in Flora says:

    Little or nothing…

  10. Carol says:

    What are current thoughts on when temps rise enough to melt slick roads Friday morning? (General timeframe?)

  11. JEM says:

    Praying it gets warm enough to avoid too much freezing rain.

  12. Duane C says:

    It sounds like it will be a difficult call for area schools. The timing of precipitation changeover is the big question. At the least a two hour delay seems to be in order. I know some people posted earlier in the week about this issue. I have always felt that ultimately it is a parent responsibilty in weather related absences. If I think it is safer to keep my kid home, he’ll stay home. I guess we will know more the closer it gets. Regardless, any snow or freezing prcipitation will be gone a few hours after daybreak. I will quote our famous Monster and Madman…Our Winter has beeen redonkulous and this sucks! Sorry if I offend anyone with the sucks comment.

  13. Maybelater says:

    Yep all childrens eyes and ears will be on Chad today and tonight hoping for weather that cancels school tomorrow. I remember those days. LOL

  14. Jim says:

    Duane good point. Probably have some cancelled schools. Or maybe delays then cancels. Mad man fircast weird. Area Lafayette 1-3 inches then ice. North of Lafayette 3-5 and ice. Weird. Chad has updated this storm a lot more than others. That tells me there is model movement

  15. Jim says:

    FYI flurries in west Lafayette

  16. Duane C says:

    You know Jim…The snow/ice line can make so much of a difference in what any of us get. The models are still not in agreement. The indy weathermen and Chad are not in full agreement either. This is a little surprising with it being so close. I guees all we can really ever do is wait and see….

  17. Kathy says:

    What I don’t is that the day weatherman never really is on the same page as Chad. He really doesn’t say to much sometimes? now he is saying 1″ I know Chad said 1 to 3 I just get confused on the day guy lol just a thought lol

  18. Kathy says:

    oops sry left out understand sry

  19. Duane C says:

    You know Kathy, I have noticed that too. Not to start any drama with the wlfi weatherman, but sometimes i feel like he downplays everthing Chad says. I guess he comes from the “I don’t want to be wrong so I don’t say too much” train of thought. I like to watch someone who is not afraid to actually give a prediction or forecast. I don’t expect them to be right all of the time.

  20. Jim says:

    Duane good point. Chad has been known to stick to his feelings thou. Can see some disagreement but we will see. Noticeable NWS Chicago issued advisories yesterday early.

  21. Duane C says:

    I agree jim. Chad does stick to his guns or at least gives a prediction on the data he gathers. The other guy “plays it safe” almost all of the time. I’m guessing Chad is going to be right on this one. He has not really wavered since the beginning of the week.

  22. Autumn says:

    I’m one of those kids.. I live for snow days during the school year. I’m by far worse than my kids.. :D

  23. renee says:

    Aww not good for my son..if there is a two hr delay tomorrow then he doesnt get to have his last day at his school..guess i better warn him..(he goes halfday..new school mon.)

  24. Autumn says:

    What does GFS stand for.. I confess Im not all that weather technologically savvy. However does that mean I can’t participate on the blog? I hope not.. Why can’t there be participants from all walks? Old/new/humorous/serious/happy/grumpy/snowy/stormy/sunny.. Do we not all have a place? Btw.. Everytime I see GFS I see “Gordon Food Service”

  25. Duane C says:

    I believe it is Global Forecasting System…Although I am a little hungry and Gordan’s souinds better!!

  26. Autumn says:

    Ha! I see ‘food’ when I look at anything. lol

  27. Duane C says:

    You are fine posting on here. It is a free country. Some of the more serious bloggers don’t like us novices or newbies. I won’t mention any names but they rhyme with Arby and Spud. They seem think we need to be serious and have doctorates in weather to post. Probably should not have gone there but I did.

  28. Jim says:

    Autumn welcome participate as you wish everyone is welcome but laugh and have fun also. Jim Moe

  29. Jim says:

    Autumn have fun Duane hit it just right. Spud and Dud that’s awesome.

  30. Autumn says:

    I think we shouldn’t be anything….. Except what we are.. If you are serious & don’t laugh it’s just as good and vice versa.

  31. Jim says:

    Awesome well put Autumn.

  32. Bud says:

    See what I mean. It just doesn’t stop. Why the name calling? I have nothing against any of you. I don’t even know you. I couldn’t care less who post. It’s not my blog. I have s sense of humor. I do laugh at some of your comments. What I was hoping would stop is the reference to anyone being a hater because their opinions might differ from yours. I don’t hate anyone and it really bothers me to see someone referred to that way.

    But this blog is not about my views and I shouldn’t have posted them. I apologize to anyone I offended and especially to Chad for posting comments other than weather related comments on his blog.

    Take care all.

    Bud, Spud, Dud or whatever else you got.

  33. Duane C says:

    Bud, this is ridiculous. Autumn has a good point. We all can be who we want to be. You seem to be an intelligent man. If you don’t like someone’s post, it is not the end of the world. I think many people have become defensive in the past month or so. It is a weather blog. It is not life or death. I sincerely apologize for my earlier comments. I think many of us check the blog for updates and and thoughts from other bloggers. I don’t mind hearing about someon’s job, kids, love of snow or lack of snow. I read and digest what I want. I throw away what I don’t. It might serve us some good if we each did more of that. No one should kick anyone out or push anyone put. No one should beg anyone to continue blogging either. If anyone wants to leave…they should just leave. If they want to stay they should stay.

  34. Melissa says:

    Autumn thanks for posting thd question of what gfs stands for cause i did not either. I love coming here and reading the comments.. So my question here is it still 1 to 3?? Was supposed to go to wisconsin tomorrow but have delayed plans till spring cause i dont want to get stuck driving up there they are looking at 8 inches.. Or i could go put some snow in jars and bring it back for.all u snow lovers lol…

  35. Crista says:

    If you think this blog is bad…you should visit a tax site or irs blog….WOW! I was on one checking out some tax info. and boy….were those people awful to each other! I guess the old saying is correct…”Don’t discuss politics, money, or religion….” Weather used to be the “safe” topic…:) On another note…I have given up on snow for this year and that means we will proably get it! :/

  36. Jim says:

    Autumn welcome to our world.

  37. Jim says:

    Duane as for the weather looks like 3 inches then ice is good for our area winds could be a issue.

  38. Mary Anne Best says:

    Hey Bud!! Hang in there! I need some reinforcement, LOL….and…my comments on the “day” Met are this…he is brand new….first job. MY man is CHAD. HE knows what he is talking about. I do like Jessie, the weekend Met. Jim he has been up in our area chasing tors! He is a storm chaser and is good enough for me to trust his forecasting.

    Hope you all see this post…

    MA in REM

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