An Example of a Reason to Not Be a Model Hugger………Tonight-Tuesday Forecast

February 4th, 2013 at 4:09 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

COMING UP THIS EVENING:  OUTLOOK NOW-FEBRUARY 20………….I am working on this & will have it later this evening.

This is why I forecast so much against models.  I went with 39 today, despite models showing it so cold & notice the NAM model for today.  It paints up to 6″ of snowfall in our northwestern counties.  The highest total from the snow was 1.5″.

Models require incredibly careful gleaning & tedious analog analysis is required for forecasts.

There are some low clouds upstream making their way in, but it is unclear how much of the low cloudiness will hang on tonight.  So, I like a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy wording for the night with lows of 15-20.  With calming winds late, late tonight, if we would happen to go totally clear in places, those areas may see some light freezing fog & temperatures colder at near 10 to 15.  With a clear sky, I would go colder than that if the snow wasn’t melting so fast today over most of the area (except far northeast [Rochester, Denver] where there is less melting going on).

Another Alberta will track just north of us tomorrow.  Some snow showers are possible, mainly in our northeastern areas where 1″ or less may accumulate in places.  Areas south of there will have little to nothing.  It will be a windy day with southwest to west gusts as high as 31 mph.

Highs look to run 29 to 37 degrees from northeast to southwest.




13 Responses to “An Example of a Reason to Not Be a Model Hugger………Tonight-Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Chuck says:

    Been mostly sunny the last couple of hours here N E of Frankfort. It has melted almost all the snow cover (1.5) in a short amount of time. Not a snowflake here today.

  2. Jim says:

    Kentland has 0 new snow cloudy skies temp 33.

  3. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Jim i think the snow has abated for the winter, what do you think?, btw hey Moe , lol

  4. Teri says:

    The parking lot at our local grocery store is like a wading pool! Snow melted fast.

  5. Tyler says:

    The models have just been atrocious lately. Virtually, all of the snow has melted in WLAF too.

  6. Crista says:

    Mad Man…I have a gut feeling your right. More nuisance snow….but more rain than anything.

  7. Crista says:


  8. Monster says:

    Wish I could say wrap this winter up chalk up a loss and bring on spring.

  9. Jim says:

    You know All I believe we get a big dump before its over this winter.

  10. Jim says:

    I have a question. We do are best to help one another out with the weather. Chad has done a awesome job he speaks his mind. Goes with his instinct and guess what he does a great job. Now as I see it. Yes I have fun. Is this a chat room no. It’s a blog is it like a chat room yes a weather chat room. Lets all do our best to help one another out. Lets have fun. But keep the name calling to ourselves. Thanks. Moe

  11. Tom says:

    I don’t think we are done with the snow this winter. We will have snow in March. In 1906 it was 68 degrees on January 20 and only 1.2 inches of snow fell that Jan. Only 2.5 inches of snow fell in Feb. 1906. In March 1906, there was 21.2 inches of snow recorded at West Lafayette. 8.5 inches fell between March 18-20, 1906. The viewing area can get a lot of snow in March and we have in the past. Just because we didn’t get very much snow in January and Dec. doesn’t mean winter is over.

  12. Bill in C'ville says:

    I’m thinking valentines day snowstorm!!

  13. Mary Anne Best says:

    Some may not see this since there is a new post by Chad. In 1963 my daughter was born on Feb 24th…guess what…basketball sectional tourney time….snowstorm you could count on. Roads closed, nurses worked a double shift, lots of babies born that night (low pressure system). SIX of her first NINE b’days the roads were closed! I have one pic of 12 inches snow on the ground on Feb 24th. Hang in there :-)

    MA in REM

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