An Example of a Reason to Not Be a Model Hugger………Tonight-Tuesday ForecastFebruary 4th, 2013 at 4:09 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
COMING UP THIS EVENING: OUTLOOK NOW-FEBRUARY 20………….I am working on this & will have it later this evening.
This is why I forecast so much against models. I went with 39 today, despite models showing it so cold & notice the NAM model for today. It paints up to 6″ of snowfall in our northwestern counties. The highest total from the snow was 1.5″.
Models require incredibly careful gleaning & tedious analog analysis is required for forecasts.
There are some low clouds upstream making their way in, but it is unclear how much of the low cloudiness will hang on tonight. So, I like a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy wording for the night with lows of 15-20. With calming winds late, late tonight, if we would happen to go totally clear in places, those areas may see some light freezing fog & temperatures colder at near 10 to 15. With a clear sky, I would go colder than that if the snow wasn’t melting so fast today over most of the area (except far northeast [Rochester, Denver] where there is less melting going on).
Another Alberta will track just north of us tomorrow. Some snow showers are possible, mainly in our northeastern areas where 1″ or less may accumulate in places. Areas south of there will have little to nothing. It will be a windy day with southwest to west gusts as high as 31 mph.
Highs look to run 29 to 37 degrees from northeast to southwest.