Update

January 29th, 2013 at 5:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Yeah, timing in 9 p.m. to 12 a.m. time frame for this looks right.

Again, some severe sporadic wind gusts is possible & I cannot totally rule out an isolated, brief tornado.

Chances will lessen if we cannot get that dew point to 60, however.

//

24 Responses to “Update”

  1. Mary Anne Best says:

    well you know me…I hope that dewy does NOT reach 60!!

    MA In REM glued to radar :-)

  2. Jim says:

    Chad thx for tracking what’s the snow chance?

  3. Jim says:

    Chad what did you find out on the lack ok ice last sun. Dry up?

  4. Chad Alenduff says:

    Hey Chad E, do you think they are going to be issuing a Watch Soon? It looks like in Illinois that the line is starting to turn severe.

  5. Jim says:

    Stoogies snow tomorrow night?

  6. Sandy Long says:

    Thanks soooooo much Chad and weather team for always being there for us all. You are truly loved and appreciated and prayed for every day! :o )

  7. Chad Alenduff says:

    Dew Point is currently 57 according to my Weatherbug, which has a station at Harrison HS, the location nearest me

  8. Teri says:

    My weather station is showing dew points 56.5 and it is 59.7*..Lafayette. Nasty line of storms in IL!

  9. ch n ffort says:

    Is it just me or is the “action” gunna do the splits n go north and south of us? Looks like central Illinois is losin its good red on the radar??

  10. Bud says:

    Always interesting to look at NOAA’s web site when we’re in an active weather pattern and see all the different colors on their map representing all the varies watches, warning, etc.

    Bud

  11. Teri says:

    Looks like a watch will be issued shortly.

  12. Jim says:

    Larry Curley what’s up.

  13. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Hey Mo, whats up? Aka Jim, not much here just slingin mud all over from this warm up, whuch will all be frozen come tommorrow nite, its going to be a big ice skating rink out there come thursday morn. Any snow chances or is the poop room in effect again?

  14. Jim says:

    Idk maybe some back stuff tomorrow pm night. I have asked chad what happened to the ice storm Sunday did it dry up? He responded saying he was going to look st data but he hasn’t responded. I’m watching storms. They are moving fast.

  15. Jim says:

    So all those who called us Stoogies for telling it as it was Sunday shame people we where right. That was what was happening Sunday.

  16. Chad Alenduff says:

    According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, despite Dew Points being in the 50s currently, tthey are expecting them to get up into the 60s as the front gets closer and are therefore likely going to be putting up a Watch VERY soon for what appeard to be the western portion of the area, as that is the area defined in the outline of the MD Anyway. Anyways, here is the Mesoscale Discussion:

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0608 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

    AREAS AFFECTED…SERN MO…SWRN KY…SWRN IND…SRN/WRN IL

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 300008Z – 300215Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…A LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD…GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

    DISCUSSION…A WEAKLY FORCED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD FROM WRN IL AND SERN MO INTO CNTRL/SRN IL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS LINE OF STORMS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…WHICH IS EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN IL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND INTO NERN AR. DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION ARE IN THE MID 50S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS W-CNTRL IL AND ERN IND AND IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SERN MO…SRN IL…AND SWRN KY. DESPITE THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS…A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB IS KEEPING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY VERY LOW /MLCAPE LESS THAN 100 J PER KG/. AS A RESULT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST THE SAME INTENSITY AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE AS STRENGTHENING LLJ COUNTERS ANY TEMPERATURE DECREASE WITH WAA AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST…ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MERGES WITH CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA AHEAD OF IT. COVERAGE OF SVR WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL.

    HOWEVER…STRENGTHENING CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN MO…SRN IL…AND SWRN KY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…REACHING 70 KT AT 850 MB. 00Z LZK SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS WITH 70 KT REPORTED AT 850 MB AND 700 MB. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN IL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM THE SW.

    ..MOSIER/HART.. 01/30/2013

    ATTN…WFO…LMK…IND…PAH…LOT…ILX…MEG…LSX…

    LAT…LON 39078959 39808913 40448859 40808803 40508710 39918669

  17. Chad Alenduff says:

    Giving her an 80% Chance of issuance….

  18. Chad Alenduff says:

    Latest here from BAM Chase, which is a Storm Chasing and meteorology team based here in Indiana. Out of Greenwood actually, but they cover mostly all the state:

    http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cIVvcUVXe8

  19. Chad Alenduff says:

    Yeah temp is going up now: It is now 61 in Lafayette!!!!

  20. Chad Alenduff says:

    or in West Lafayette at Harrison HS anyways where my weatherbug station is that I selected

  21. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Yea this weather is the terrible, we need a bevy of real heavy snowfall to clear this rain crap outta here.

  22. jks says:

    I hate storms at night because you can’t see it. I think I would rather have snow instead of bad storms. Just hope my son gets home from work before it hits.

  23. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Yeah toronados sux. We need some thunder snow!!!!

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