NOAA Storm Prediction Center: Watch Likely Soon For Parts of Area (80% Chance of Watch Issuance)

January 29th, 2013 at 8:16 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Despite slight weakening trend in squall line recently, low-level jet is forecast to strengthen rapidly over the next 1-2 hours into the area at +80 mph, which may help squall line to re-organize.  SPC is onto this thinking.

Whether is watch is for our area, part of it (now or in a bit) or for areas mainly to our southwest remains to be seen. 

Sporadic wind threat & perhaps an isolated weak, brief tornado threat still looks reasonable, generally in the 9 p.m. to 12 a.m. time frame.  HOWEVER, dew points remain issue at only 56 at the station with air temperatures of 63 degrees as of 8:38 p.m. 

Substantial WAA (warm, moist air moving north) with its 60-degree dew point line is moving north.  Need to watch this.  60-degree dew point needed to really get anything to the surface as tongue of 60-degree dew points creep northward.

Regardless, heavy storms are lining up just west of our northwestern counties.  It will be interesting to see what happens with this line as the +80 mph LLJ gets going in the area.

We are getting some pretty good gusts with the storms just north of Roselawn of up to 54 mph.  Velocity showing gusts of 30-40 mph northwest of Morocco.

 

 

11 Responses to “NOAA Storm Prediction Center: Watch Likely Soon For Parts of Area (80% Chance of Watch Issuance)”

  1. Chad Alenduff says:

    Thanks Chad E! I saw that earlier! Somebody posted on blog about it then I went and looked at it myself! Sounds like it is going to be a rough night, and they were right on saying dew points, temps, and all were going to go up: I can tell it has been increasing as my weatherbug station that is located out at Harrison HS is now reading a temp of 61 and dew point is 57. That is up from 59 degree temp and 55 degree dew point an hour ago….

  2. Chad Alenduff says:

    Mesoscale Discussion:

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0608 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

    AREAS AFFECTED…SERN MO…SWRN KY…SWRN IND…SRN/WRN IL

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 300008Z – 300215Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…A LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD…GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

    DISCUSSION…A WEAKLY FORCED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD FROM WRN IL AND SERN MO INTO CNTRL/SRN IL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS LINE OF STORMS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…WHICH IS EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN IL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND INTO NERN AR. DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION ARE IN THE MID 50S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS W-CNTRL IL AND ERN IND AND IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SERN MO…SRN IL…AND SWRN KY. DESPITE THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS…A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB IS KEEPING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY VERY LOW /MLCAPE LESS THAN 100 J PER KG/. AS A RESULT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST THE SAME INTENSITY AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE AS STRENGTHENING LLJ COUNTERS ANY TEMPERATURE DECREASE WITH WAA AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST…ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MERGES WITH CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA AHEAD OF IT. COVERAGE OF SVR WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL.

    HOWEVER…STRENGTHENING CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN MO…SRN IL…AND SWRN KY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…REACHING 70 KT AT 850 MB. 00Z LZK SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS WITH 70 KT REPORTED AT 850 MB AND 700 MB. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN IL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM THE SW.

    ..MOSIER/HART.. 01/30/2013

    ATTN…WFO…LMK…IND…PAH…LOT…ILX…MEG…LSX…

    LAT…LON 39078959 39808913 40448859 40808803 40508710 39918669

  3. Chad Alenduff says:

    New Tornado Watch just went up in Illinois and down in Far Southern Indiana

  4. Chad Alenduff says:

    Now that was only part of the MD Area though. You would think that with them putting up the Tornado Watch on the Southern end of the MD they are looking at putting up a Severe Thunderstorm Watch on the rest of the MD and are probably putting one together as we speak

  5. Jim says:

    Chad A. Thanks for the updates. Chad E has his hands full tonight so lets all wait for him
    To do his job tonight.

  6. Chad Alenduff says:

    Uh oh!!!! Said shear is increasing BIG time…May not be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if that trend continues…..Instead it will be a TORNADO WATCH!!!!

  7. Chad Alenduff says:

    My Cousin is leaving Kansas City soon after visiting family to head back to Columbus, OH. I am very concerned about him as he doesn’t seem to be very phased about this. he would be travelling through Indiana in the overnight

  8. Crista says:

    Reminds me of Spring! :) Since we arent getting snow…Ill think Sprimg thoughts. Windy as heck out there. I just saw toto and a witch on a bike fly by…

  9. Ryan H says:

    Pretty bad night down in Arkansas and Mississippi….

  10. James says:

    Eerie outside. Winds are gusting to about 25 here at Logansport with lightning and thunder observed and light rain, but I can see s few stars and the waning moon is seen in the Eastern sky. Quite a sight. It’s indeed going to be an interesting night. Thanks for all the updates Chad.

  11. Mary Anne Best says:

    Hey Chad A…good to see you back on the blog!! Raining hard here now.

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