The SPC just recently took down the Mesoscale Discussion, and with the Probability of a Watch Issuance so high, that usually means it is pretty likely they are going to be issuing a Watch soon….
looks like its gonna storm
Thx for ur thoughts chad e. Know ur busy. Hopin maybe for some downed tree o.t. since can’t get any from snow…lol
Thanks for the question. Dew points still 54-59. Storms Newton/Jasper appear to be where glancing blow of strong upper jet winds are located.
Nose of strenghtening LLJ is aimed at southern Illinois though. Dew points there 60-61.
Latest high-res data & soundings still indicate re-organization of line over next 1-2 hours in heart of viewing area.
We will see.
Hey Chad E., what are the shear values looking like? I was hearing something earlier that they were getting very high pretty far north like near here, and they would likely have a tornado watch out if it stayed that way or the trend continued and got higher. Does that make sense here? I know you are busy, but I figured that would be a good question to ask.
Most of the storms went north of Rensselaer. Not much here at this point.
Hey Chad A.,
Yeah shear is very impressive with shear & helicity values more than sufficient for tornadoes. LLJ is very impressive with core of +80 mph winds at 5,000′ approaching. Problem is dew point & surface instability. Dew point depressions of 8 degrees when it is 63 are not the best for great buoyancy to tap into shear & LLJ even if upper forcing is extremely good.
Unless that line in southern Illinois can indeed move into area, we will luck on any sporadic severe gust or any weak tornado.
I agree with SPC on the LLJ, but unless higher dew points arrive we will only have heavy rain with some thunder & lightning.
Lightning thunder, very loud in monticello. Temp gauge broke.
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