Flood Watch for Most of Area: 1-3″ Rainfall Now-Wednesday Morning (Good Chunk of It Tuesday Night)January 28th, 2013 at 11:30 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Flood Watch is in effect for nearly all of viewing area except Benton, Newton, Jasper, per NWS.
1-3″ of rainfall is likely now-Wednesday morning, leading to areas of flooding in fields, low-lying areas & areas around creeks & streams. Wabash will rise above flood stage again by late week-weekend.
QLCS SQUALL LINE……….& NEAR-RECORD WARMTH………..
Still looks like QLCS squall line of storms will pass Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning. The western half of the viewing area may see some sporadic damaging straight-line wind gusts as it passes of +58 mph along & west of a line from Winamac to Dayton to Darlington. Accompanying the line will be lots of rain, which may lead to areas of flash flooding.
Most likely mode with QLCS would be some localized bowing segments/”S”-shaped appendages in the line.
If dew points can get higher than forecast 55-58 numbers, than will need to talk about isolated EF0-EF1 tornado threat in any “S”-shaped LEWPS or meso-vortices in the line. Currently think isolated tornado threat may get as far north as Evansville or Princeton, Indiana (southwest Indiana) given higher dew points there over +80 mph low-level jet (ribbon of south/southwest wind at 5,000′) & nicely curving hodographs (changing wind direction with height). I have found 60-degree dew point is usuallly the threshold for cool-season tornado touchdown, as is an air temperature of 60 with low-level jet like this present.
Tornado event is very likely Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana & east Texas Tuesday p.m.-night in one of those typical Delta/Dixie Alley cool-season severe outbreaks.
Temperatures will be very mild in the 50s tonight & reach 60s tomorrow with a peak of mid 60s by tomorrow night in part of the viewing area.
SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS & ARCTIC BLAST……….
With some flurries/snow showers Wednesday evening-night, Arctic Blast will roar in with highs in the teens to end the week & overnight lows in the single digits. No substantial accumulation of snow is currently expected.
Otherwise, temperatures will moderate back to 30s next week. Some flurries/snow showers are possible Saturday, but no substantial accumulation is currently expected.