Wild Ride This Week with Rain, Storms, 60s & Arctic BlastJanuary 27th, 2013 at 9:32 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
OUTLOOK MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING…………
Rising Temperatures & Periodic Rain, Drizzle & Fog……….
Freezing rain is rapidly going over to all rain across the viewing area.
Periodic rain, drizzle & fog will be the story Monday-Tuesday as much warmer air overrides viewing area. Temperatures will rise all night tonight to 40s, then 50s tomorrow, 50s tomorrow night & lower 60s Tuesday with a peak as high as the mid 60s Tuesday night.
QLCS Squall Line Early Wednesday Morning…………Near Record Warmth Possible & 1-2″ of Rainfall……….
With a break in the periodic rain Tuesday evening, fast-moving severe squall line of storms called a QLCS will be evolving from Illinois to northeastern Texas & western Louisiana. Embedded supercell structures will exist in Arkansas, Louisiana & Texas. Farther north, look like a narrow, ropey squall line of sporadic damaging straight-line winds from Missouri to as far north as Springfield, Illinois.
By 1 a.m., QLCS should run from Kankakee to near St. Louis, Memphis to the Gulf Coast. Up our way in Illinois, line will likely have some sporadic damaging straight-line winds. Widespread severe weather (mainly wind, but tornadoes southeast Missouri to Louisiana) looks like a good bet St. Louis to Gulf Coast with it being more sporadic up our way. Again, just prior to squall line arrival, we may very well be around 65 degrees with a strong south wind to 40 mph.
Looks like QLCS squall line would pass in 3-5 a.m. time frame with sporadic damaging wind threat (doesn’t look like widespread severe wind gusts of +58 mph hitting everyone though) with an impressive temperature drop from 60s to 30s & 40s. Best chance of a damaging straight-line wind gust would occur west of a Medaryville to Monticello to Dayton to Darlington & Ladoga line.
Winds at 5,000′ will be screaming at 80-85 mph & forward speed of the squall line at 55 mph would not make it hard to mix down some severe gusts where bits of instability (buoyancy) exist, specifically surface-based instability (largely where dew points exceed 55 degrees). Once line gets east of Winamac, Frankfort & Lebanon, it appears it will outrun best dynamics, any buoyancy (instability) & therefore weaken pretty rapidly.
Potential exists for a total of 1-2″ of rainfall to occur now-Wednesday morning across the entire viewing area. Rising rivers, creeks & streams are likely with smaller streams & creek coming up & cresting Tuesday night-Wednesday & larger rivers like the Wabash cresting by next weekend near, if not a bit above flood stage.
Cooler with Dry Slot Wednesday………Flurries/Some Snow Showers Possible Wednesday Night……….
After some lingering showers very early Wednesday, it appears we will be in a dry slot (perhaps & few cracks in the clouds), followed by perhaps some flurries/snow showers later Wednesday evening-Wednesday night. It doesn’t look like any substantial accumulation, but it looks windy Tuesday & Wednesday, even Thursday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-NEXT WEEK…………..
Arctic Blast with Flurries/Some Snow Showers & Wind Chills Below Zero…………
After this, Arctic air will roar in with highs only near 19 with lows near 5. Clipper may bring flurries/some snow showers Saturday. It doesn’t look like any substantial accumulation.
After this, Sunday to Tuesday next week look dry with highs warming from 20s & lows in single digits to highs in the 30s with lows in the teens.
At the present time, no significant snowfall is seen through mid-next week.
STAY TUNED TO FUTURE BLOG POSTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AS NEW DATA ARRIVES………….