Some Data No Snow or Very Little, Some (& Analog Data) Substantial Snowfall Still As of 11:45 p.m.January 24th, 2013 at 11:00 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Now all of the sudden GFS, NAM, Futurecast to GEM are agreeing on very little snow.
I can’t ignore this trend & it makes this by far the most frustrating forecast in a very long time. Whether it is a brief fluke or it is indeed a new trend is in question.
JMA still has a decent snow.
So, where do we go from here………………………….
Well, I am leaning on cutting totals……..but with horrendous model performance I don’t want to overdo it & I still like the snow-making properties that look present. Never had to do this in all my career to go from 2-6″ to nothing with such bad model performance less than 10 hours before an event.
With nice upper dynamics to the west & low-level jet nudging in, I just can’t go “no snow” or “no accumulation”. I like keeping accumulating snowfall in here. Rather than 2-6″, will cut to 1-4″, though with highest totals in eastern areas.
Analog data still points to 2-6″, but I cannot ignore now sudden large model agreement of much less or even NOTHING.
Will run with that 1-4″ & nowcast tomorrow morning. On a side note, it is so extremely rare to have NO measurable snowfall in January in West Lafayette. That in & of itself would make it difficult to believe we would get nothing from this or such a miniscule amount.
Notice below how the HRRR Hi-Res model paints a lot of snowfall all across the area & nice accumulations.