Some Data No Snow or Very Little, Some (& Analog Data) Substantial Snowfall Still As of 11:45 p.m.

January 24th, 2013 at 11:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Now all of the sudden GFS, NAM, Futurecast to GEM are agreeing on very little snow.

I can’t ignore this trend & it makes this by far the most frustrating forecast in a very long time.  Whether it is a brief fluke or it is indeed a new trend is in question.

JMA still has a decent snow.

So, where do we go from here………………………….

Well, I am leaning on cutting totals……..but with horrendous model performance I don’t want to overdo it & I still like the snow-making properties that look present.  Never had to do this in all my career to go from 2-6″ to nothing with such bad model performance less than 10 hours before an event.

With nice upper dynamics to the west & low-level jet nudging in, I just can’t go “no snow” or “no accumulation”.  I like keeping accumulating snowfall in here.  Rather than 2-6″, will cut to 1-4″, though with highest totals in eastern areas.

Analog data still points to 2-6″, but I cannot ignore now sudden large model agreement of much less or even NOTHING.

Will run with that 1-4″ & nowcast tomorrow morning.  On a side note, it is so extremely rare to have NO measurable snowfall in January in West Lafayette.  That in & of itself would make it difficult to believe we would get nothing from this or such a miniscule amount.

Notice below how the HRRR Hi-Res model paints a lot of snowfall all across the area & nice accumulations.

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16 Responses to “Some Data No Snow or Very Little, Some (& Analog Data) Substantial Snowfall Still As of 11:45 p.m.”

  1. Sarah says:

    What a week you must have had! Frustrating for us too. I was hoping for snow :(

  2. JB in WL says:

    Well, it’s official – the forecast is: “It might snow… or it might not.” With those odds, might as well go to Vegas!

  3. Ben says:

    I appreciate your blunt honesty. Feel like I got a glimpse into the challenges of your job this week, although I’m sure it was not fun for you. If it matters, you are more accurate than any weatherman WLFI has had that I can ever recall. You do a great job!!

  4. Ron @ Crawfordsville says:

    You guys rely on computer models too much. Go with your training and instinct. I feel 2″ inches is reasonable for us. On radar the two systems look to be merging to me! And, they cover several states! I can’t see how we’re going to only get an inch or less!

  5. Frustrated snow lover says:

    Ughhhhhh

  6. Brandy says:

    I appreciate your honesty as well.. Also, you have to love technology especially when it decides to be temperamental.. :-) Thank you for all your hard work on keeping us updated to the best of your capabilities.. :-) Try to have a great night..

  7. renee says:

    I think u gave us a great heads up about how hard this one has been. i i felt more like we may or may not get snow and its not as much of a disappointment since we have been told how hard its been.

  8. Melissa says:

    No disappointment here thanks for your hard work Chad!!!

  9. Todd says:

    Chad…it’s not a crime to be wrong. Stick with your forecast..whether right or wrong. Don’t worry about the models…they don’t make a good meteorologist. Anyone can read the models but not everyone can predict the weather. Try not to get frustrated and just go with your instincts on this one.
    Todd

  10. jackie says:

    I’m to the point where it’s all up to Mother Nature whats going to happen with the weather..It’s basically out of our hands! lol

  11. Jason says:

    If it’s any consolation, Chad (I’ve been checking your blog all week), as I look at the Weather Channel’s current Doppler (Fri, 2:45am), it looks very close to the upper right HRRR composite reflectivity model.

  12. Jim says:

    Well as usual ———-zip. Mad man lets flip a coin next time

  13. mad man from afghanistan says:

    I dont know yet Jim, twc and noaa say 3 to 4 now

  14. Frustrated snow lover says:

    Bring on the snow please!!!!

  15. Ben from Wolcott says:

    As of 8:00 this morning, I have received a Trace amount of Snow.

  16. Jim says:

    It’s all a game mad man what a joke

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