1″ or Less Late Morning-Afternoon Today In Places with Clipper….Tonight & Thursday Night-Friday Information

January 23rd, 2013 at 11:13 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY………..

Passing clipper today will deposit 1″ or less of snowfall is possible in places this late morning-afternoon. Highs will be in the 20s with brisk west to southwest winds up to 22 mph, bringing wind chills down to 8.

TONIGHT…...

It also appears some lake affect snow showers will be possible tonight as lake effect snow shower band that is oriented northwest-southeast northeast of the viewing area, swings around & orients itself north to south from Gary to Rensselaer to Monticello to Fowler & perhaps Lafayette.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY………..

ANALOG & MOST FOREIGN MODELS PAINT A DECENT SNOWFALL…..U.S. NAM MODEL IS LONE RANGER WITH NOT A SINGLE FLAKE

Models continue to show horrendous disagreement regarding Thursday night-Friday system.  Noticed NWS Indianapolis dropped 4″ mention down to 1″ & Northern Indiana office says up to 3″.  Northern Indiana NWS office says snowfall ratio 17:1……..Indianapolis NWS says 12:1.  I like North Webster’s 17:1 ratio best.  I still prefer 18:1, which makes forecast hard with even 0.10″ liquid giving you 2″ of snowfall.  North Webster still indicates uncertainty, which I am in line with.  In their forecast discussion “surprise amounts/ratios” are mentioned:  “SNOW RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE CLIMO (USED 17:1) GIVEN A DGZ NEARLY 10-12 KFT DEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OUTSIDE SHOT OF A MORE ROBUST MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE COULD LEAD TO SURPRISE AMOUNTS/RATIOS.”

Eastern Indiana/western Ohio NWS office has totally thrown out the NAM model for the forecast & prefers to use GFS/European blend.  They like 2″ with potential of isolated locations seeing +4″.

Lincoln, Illinois NWS (forecasts for county just west of Warren in Illinois) office makes no mention of ratios, but tends to side with NWS Indianapolis more.  They have 1″ or less of accumulation.

Chicago NWS gives no numbers from ratios to accumulations (forecasts for Newton, Jasper & Benton).  They only say “light accumulations”.

U.S. NAM has not a single flake with not northern & southern system merger.  U.S. GFS has up to 3″.  Analog supports accumulating snowfall of 3-6″.  Japanese model (JMA) has up to 0.50″ liquid & generally 3-7″.  NOGAPS has a 3-5″ snow, while UKMET has 3-6″.  European has the northern low as the dominant one & less snow here, but some (up to 1.5″).  Canadian GEM has a 1-3″ snow.  The Japanese model brings the greatest accumulation & best organization for a snowfall event & then re-forms a Nor’Easter on the East Coast with heavy snowfall there & quite a bit of wind.

Tough call on what direction to go.  On one hand, I rely much on analog, which points towards a merger & 3-6″.  However, I do not want to go there & have people waste money & time on preparation (specifically snow removal companies) if the NAM is correct.  Indianapolis NWS likes a much lower snowfall amount of 1″ with a 12:1 ratio, but I have seen this happen before of 1-2″ in these situations & you get 3-6″.  Happened a few weeks ago in southern Indiana & left people unprepared.

Even today with clipper, frontagenical band has set up in north-central Illinois with weak clipper with moderate to heavy snow over a 5-mile by 50 mile band.  2″ have fallen in band when flurries or 30% chance of light snowfall forecasted.

I think either way this forecast is going to be awful, unless there is much better agreement this afternoon-evening & into tomorrow.  Even National Weather Service forecast offices do not agree with each other on amounts & snow ratios in the viewing area (12:1 or 17:1), let alone models.  I will make a decision on whether to alter the 3-6″ later today once I get the 18z model runs (out later this afternoon) under my belt.

10 Responses to “1″ or Less Late Morning-Afternoon Today In Places with Clipper….Tonight & Thursday Night-Friday Information”

  1. Doug in Flora says:

    Be glad you’re not in the Pacific Northwest, Chad. Because of so many conflicting weather phenomena there, forecasters call it a good year, if they have a 45% accuracy rate. As people on the Oregon Coast say: “If you don’t like the weather, just wait 15 minutes for it to change!”

  2. Monster says:

    I would rather be prepaired than not chad. If your thinking 3-6 and your thinking a good bet im going to prepair. If you think an inch and im not prepaired I could loose contracts. So between you and I you thinking over two?

  3. Duane C says:

    I will anxiously await Chad’s thoughts after the 18z runs. I can tell he wants to stick to his guns on this one. He’s been calling 3-6 for most of the week. He would have backtracked like the rest of them if he didn’t see something out of the ordinary. I’ve been reading all of the posts. I hope Monster an Madman get their snows!!!!

    Tom and Ryan haven’t weighed in on this one. What are you thoughts, guys?

  4. Redmom says:

    I’m just thankful to have a meteorologist who is willing to think for himself and poke his head out the window, rather than simply regurgitate whatever forecasts a bunch of computers can generate.

  5. TomL says:

    I say LET IT SNOW! I don’t know anything about forecasting weather, though, so you’re probably asking the other Tom… :)

  6. Maybelater says:

    I think the snow is definitely coming. The question is will it hit or miss us?

  7. nkonkel says:

    Chad whatever you forecast and whatever actually happens Thursday-Friday, I will still believe in your forecasting because you are right more often than most other meteorologist. Stick with your guns and have no regrets.

  8. renee says:

    Sounds frustrating for you and other meteorologists

  9. Jim says:

    2 inches has been a guess for awile.

  10. josh says:

    between 0″ and 100″ thats my guess

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