UpdateJanuary 22nd, 2013 at 10:00 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
I went warmer for tonight, given the thickening clouds & light breeze. Rather than 3, 7 looks good for Lafayette/West Lafayette. Readings have already fallen to 5 at Winamac & 6 at Rochester, so lows near 3 look good there.
Highs in the 20s tomorrow still look good.
Few flurries/snow showers tonight still look good. Also some scattered snow showers tomorrow late morning-afternoon look good. An 1″ or less is possible in some places as a few broken bands of snow showers set up on northeast side of weak clipper (in an area of weak frontagenical banding).
NAM & GFS models have done a 360 this evening with not a single flake Thursday or Friday. I really, really doubt this. I have thrown out so much of the model data with this as it has been horrendous. That is why I have gone higher than everyone else. I rely on a lot of analog data & a comparison of past similar systems. If you take models for what they are worth in this case, you would go from up to 4″ prediction this morning to nothing now.
This is a met’s biggest headaches & why I go on my own 80% of the time with an analog data set I have here. It is so extremely rare to not have really any measurable snowfall in January that it has happened once in Lafayette/West Lafayette area since 1860. That January was 1944 when we had an incredibly warm & dry January with many days in the 50s & 60s for highs.
I think my focus will be analog & the European model. U.S. models are showing increasingly frustrating performance & this fall & winter has been one of the worst I have seen in several years. From Superstorm Sandy to the Christmas storm, its been a not-so-good season for run-of-the-mill U.S. models with constant flip-flopping.
Will stick with accumulating snow centered Thursday night-Friday & run with that for now. System looks a bit similar to late January 2004 system where 1-2″ was predicted & anywhere from 2 to 7″ fell. I remember as a COOP observer in college melting down 6.7″ of snowfall to 0.35″ of liquid from that event due to the extremely efficient snowflake production in the SGZ.
I still like 3-6″, though I can’t tell you where the 3″, 4″, 3.5″……………..or 5″ will occur. The January 2004 system had the low-level jet, nice frontagenical banding & nice upper jet for efficient snowflake production.