Update

January 22nd, 2013 at 10:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I went warmer for tonight, given the thickening clouds & light breeze.  Rather than 3, 7 looks good for Lafayette/West Lafayette.  Readings have already fallen to 5 at Winamac & 6 at Rochester, so lows near 3 look good there.

Highs in the 20s tomorrow still look good.

Few flurries/snow showers tonight still look good.  Also some scattered snow showers tomorrow late morning-afternoon look good.  An 1″ or less is possible in some places as a few broken bands of snow showers set up on northeast side of weak clipper (in an area of weak frontagenical banding).

 

NAM & GFS models have done a 360 this evening with not a single flake Thursday or Friday.  I really, really doubt this.  I have thrown out so much of the model data with this as it has been horrendous.  That is why I have gone higher than everyone else.  I rely on a lot of analog data & a comparison of past similar systems.  If you take models for what they are worth in this case, you would go from up to 4″ prediction this morning to nothing now.

This is a met’s biggest headaches & why I go on my own 80% of the time with an analog data set I have here.  It is so extremely rare to not have really any measurable snowfall in January that it has happened once in Lafayette/West Lafayette area since 1860.  That January was 1944 when we had an incredibly warm & dry January with many days in the 50s & 60s for highs.

I think my focus will be analog & the European model.  U.S. models are showing increasingly frustrating performance & this fall & winter has been one of the worst I have seen in several years.  From Superstorm Sandy to the Christmas storm, its been a not-so-good season for run-of-the-mill U.S. models with constant flip-flopping.

Will stick with accumulating snow centered Thursday night-Friday & run with that for now.  System looks a bit similar to late January 2004 system where 1-2″ was predicted & anywhere from 2 to 7″ fell.  I remember as a COOP observer in college melting down 6.7″ of snowfall to 0.35″ of liquid from that event due to the extremely efficient snowflake production in the SGZ. 

I still like 3-6″, though I can’t tell you where the 3″, 4″, 3.5″……………..or 5″ will occur.  The January 2004 system had the low-level jet, nice frontagenical banding & nice upper jet for efficient snowflake production.

17 Responses to “Update”

  1. Todd says:

    Chad,
    Keep up the good work!!! Weather forecasting is more than just making a forecast based on what the models are depicting. Too many meteorologists base their forecasts on each run and thus are changing their predictions frequently. More should actually forecast the weather…as you do. There is a reason your forecasts are so accurate. Thanks for your dedication!!
    Todd

  2. Carol says:

    Todd is so right about that! Eventually the other forecasters fall into your line of thinking…way past the time you begin. Channel 13 is beginning to do that right now.
    Thanks, Chad!

  3. Monster says:

    I remember a storm couple years ago. Every one predicted 6 more in of snow than chad even nws and chad hit totals within a tenth of an in. I think your on the money chad and im sure you’ll be close. Now bring on the snow:l

  4. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Damn right monster, bring snow so monster can make some money..

  5. chris in Tipton says:

    I know it’s frustrating…..but why do the models do this? I know that they are not perfect….but it seems odd (even for the GFS…) To go from moderate accum to NOTHING…..in a day…..when the system is only 2.5 days out.

  6. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Chris its probably a glitch, no worries bro, we will get snow

  7. Monster says:

    Hay mad man thought you wherw going to bed bro?

  8. Monster says:

    I really like the 18:1 ratio means more snow for less moister. Its like getring more gas for less money lol

  9. mad man from afghanistan says:

    I did, woke up to eat, going back bed shortly monster, sure hope we get something out if this system , i mean we have to i would think, you?

  10. Monster says:

    Ya I think 3-6 sounds great as long as everyrhing holds together. Im not understanding all the dynamics but I understand what chad has said with all the maps and sgz. I think he is right on. We will know more tomorrow

  11. britni says:

    There was just a news story about how the us models are not forecasting systems very well.

  12. jks says:

    I’m one of the of no snow people but after hearing Mad Man I’m beginning to hope for snow, just let everyone get home from work first and I’ll be happy. You have converted me Mad Man.

  13. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Well thanks jks, you have a great day

  14. Jim says:

    Mad man. Well what you think

  15. Autumn says:

    you know what.. I even like when the models say snow even if they later change.. With the little amount we’re getting.. Just the slightest anticipation is fun to me. Yes.. I may have no life… I don’t care.. I like the simple stuff! At least there was a chance!

  16. Doug in Flora says:

    I’d still like my long-awaited 17 inches, darn it…

  17. Cantore says:

    So someone just walked into our office and said he heard were suppose to get 6-9 inches now. I laughed and said where did you hear that? Any new updates Chad?

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