Update

January 22nd, 2013 at 1:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Weak clipper is passing to our southwest right now.  A quick snowfall of up to 1.5″ in a narrow band will occur from eastern Missouri to western Kentucky.

As for us, weak clipper to our northwest will pass tonight with few flurries & snow showers.  A light dusting is possible in a few places.

Another weak clipper looks to pass tomorrow.  1″ or less of accumulation is possible late morning-afternoon in the viewing area.

Accumulating snowfall still looks likely late, late Thursday to Thursday night & Friday morning.  I still like 3-6″, but I cannot tell you who’s getting 3″, who’s getting 3.5″, 4″, 5″ or even 6″ of snowfall.  Those details are unclear.  However, right now it still looks like the heaviest snowfall from the event would be east of here.  I am thinking of taking out any mention of mix, as 0C line at 850 mb (about 5,000′) is generally setting up south of here.

Below is suggested model guidance with some numbers I pasted based on my thinking of the snow being 18:1 ratio, good dynamics, frontagenic forcing & baroclinically-induced low-level jet taking hold.  The second graphic is actually the NAM model, showing where it thinks the heaviest snowfall will be.  Its performance is better now & pretty much in line with GFS, European & NOGAPS.

Given forcing, 18:1 ratio looks good given efficient dendrite (flake) production likely.

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35 Responses to “Update”

  1. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Thurs and fri, looking good monticello chad, approx how much snow?

  2. Jims23 says:

    Still thinking it will pass us just like all the others………….Maybe an inch, maybe 2, but no more.

  3. Duane C says:

    Jim–youv’e been questioning the 4-6 and 3-6 pretty much all the way. What data are you looking at that is different from what Chad is seeing. The pessimist in me agrees with you. We seem to get “oassed by” over and over again.

  4. Jim says:

    This is Jim not Jim 23 this looks like a snow but its not the big one. Mad Man snow looks good not a biggie.

  5. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Jim noaa says 80 percent for white county thurs and fri, so maybe we will get at least 3 or 4 .

  6. KKAttica says:

    I’ve checked many websites and sources, and WLFI is the only site calling for significant accumulation Thursday night-Friday morning. If fact, the highest accumulation I have found on other sites is up to 1″. Why?

  7. mike in dayton says:

    Is that a dry slot coming right up to us in the one model with snowfall projections?

  8. ch n ffort says:

    Well fox just popped the bubble…went from 2-4″ down to 1-2″ maybe now for Friday

  9. Joey says:

    Please tell me that this isn’t another one of those things that will completely dissolve or pass us by in Benton. Is it? I wanted a big snow so badly. We’re due.

  10. Christy says:

    Chicago station just showed a snowfall map that the north side of the city could get about 5″ and nothing to the south of chicago….did something change? My kids are dying to go sledding….

  11. Sam says:

    All the major forecast models (NAM, GFS, European) only seem to show 1-2 inches max…

  12. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Wow just wow

  13. Joey says:

    Ugh. Then this whole thing was just a big tease. Darn.

  14. Melissa says:

    Love that three snow totals keep going down!!! Bah humbug on snow

  15. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Who knows maybe we will get lucky folks, at this point 3 or 4 would be nice

  16. Joey says:

    I was so excited about the 4-6…that is what bugs me. I believed it. I know Chad doesn’t control the snow; I don’t blame him, but I wish it wasn’t projected so early & surely. I should’ve known better.

  17. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Joey we will get something out of this im hoping, something has got to give , i mean come on mother nature give us the snow so we can enjoy it.

  18. Mary Anne Best says:

    Well you gotta admit it gets us all talking here on the blog!! :-)
    I have seen the snow do exactly what the rain did all last summer…dry up as it approaches. I have seen wording like “not much moisture to work with….”…..I will be surprised if anyone north of Laffy sees much snow. East…yes.

    MA in REM

  19. mike in dayton says:

    I don’t like these trends of starting out with high projection totals, then just whittle away at them by the time it gets here. Next storm, let’s start out 4 days out and talk flurries, then we can trend up if we need to. Of course I’m not a weatherman, and I want snow, so keeping hope up for Friday, we’ll see.

  20. ch n ffort says:

    Im calling for 12″ area wide…lol…if it dries up it dries up. Nothing chad can do bout it..hey chad if we do get some decent call me u can plow snow with me n mulberry area if ur interested.

  21. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Right on ch, im with ya on that, who knows man, maybe we will get 12, weirder things have happened

  22. Autumn says:

    Chad.. Was that frozen fog I drove thru this AM? It was a strange smokey like steamy like light fog or something..??

  23. mad man from afghanistan says:

    There it is folks 3 to 6 area wide, ok im done, good nite.

  24. Jim says:

    Hold on mad man. I see maybe 2 inches area wide I believe in Chad but I think he will drop the 4/6 3/6. Down on his next update. Mad man not good.

  25. Crista says:

    If its not gonna snow thus winter…than I guess it might as well start getting warm. Im sick of working out indoors anyway….:) (But…if we could squeeze out one tiny blizzard….that would be awesome!)

  26. Monster says:

    Why everyone so negative all the reports are looking good for snow. Chad said he doesent like the model’s on this storm and mad man your right percentages went up on nooa. Im thinking chad nailed this one.

  27. Jim says:

    It’s simple percentages up totals down. I Will wait for chads next update it’s looking like a quick mover 2 inches.

  28. Monster says:

    Im not seeing it yet guess chad will let us know. No one untill today gave totals and gfs is stil saying .2 to .3 in of liquid at 18:1 would mean 3-5 in

  29. Monster says:

    Actually 3.6 to 5.5 to be exact.

  30. Jim says:

    Monster where ?

  31. Teri says:

    We shall see when it gets here..tricky mother nature will do as she pleases:)

  32. Jim says:

    Well this is interesting Everyone is saying 2.3. Chad is saying 3/6. I think Chad will come down on totals.

  33. ch n ffort says:

    Hey chad let me change it up a bit…any big wind with this next system?

  34. Tom says:

    Hey Crista! The way things are going, the blizzard will probably come in March. Remember what I told you about this March? This January is not as dull as January of 1990. Only a Trace of snow fell that January and the coldest temp. was 15 degrees. There were 8 days above 50 and 2 days above 60. So January 1990 gets my vote for the dullest January of all time.

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