Thursday P.M. – Friday A.M.

January 21st, 2013 at 1:30 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Never take models for total face value…….I’m looking at the dynamic support & nice lift in the SGZ (Snow Growth Zone) Thursday p.m.-Friday a.m., which is why I prefer 4-6″ with some mix in southeast & south.  I say mix in south & southeast because it still appears tongue of 0-2C air at 850 mb (5000′) will make it to I-74.

Impressive dendritic growth & snow ratios of 15:1 support more snow.  Analog data showing similar situations shows a large statistical likelihood of more snow.

80-90 mph mid & upper winds with impressive mid-level vertical velocities & a 60-80 mph baroclinically-induced low-level jet nosing up into the Ohio Valley should promote a few hours of moderate to heavy snowfall as upper trough swings in.  SGZ zone temperatures & moisture sure look  ample for the prolific dendrite production.  Also noticed frontogenical forcing with temperatures of -9C in our northwestern counties to 2C in our south in the 850-700 mb zone.

I’ve thrown out the NAM model, as it is not handling the cold air well & the GFS has too little snow here.

Will continue watch.

22 Responses to “Thursday P.M. – Friday A.M.”

  1. Josh says:

    How much for wl?

  2. Jims23 says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it.

  3. mad man from afghanistan says:

    I think im gonna don a speedo and find the neareat lake and jump in any takers, lol

  4. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Dont worry hoosierites snow and plenty of it will be on tap for thursday and fri!

  5. mad man from afghanistan says:

    How much for monticello chad,?

  6. Crista says:

    Speedos..they should be outlawed…no matter how hot the guy is…lol
    And I am still skeptical about the snow. But folks seem intense about it…so Ill plan on snow..

  7. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Found my speedos, time to head to the lake freeman…

  8. Jim says:

    Speedos outlawed Crista what do you prefer? As for the snow Chads thinking is way better than these models so its looking better. For thurs fri

  9. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Oh come on Jim, lol, speedos rock bro, so whats the SWAG for thursday and fri jim? Swag means scientific wild ass guess.

  10. Deb says:

    Delphi has called a 2HR delay for tomorrow already!!

  11. Crista says:

    Im going with Chad as I remember a year or two ago the NWS was calling for a huge snow and Chad said it wasnt going to hit. Chad was right on! He seems to be in tune for the most part. And I like swimming trunks over speedos. All I can visualize in Speedos is that old hairy guy on the whiskey commercial..

  12. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Trust me christa im not that guy….. I hope chads snowcast is a good one too

  13. Crista says:

    You dont seem like that guy…lol.

  14. Crista says:

    And we need a break in the hum drum weather…its been so dull!

  15. mad man from afghanistan says:

    I am told that i am rather attractive, yeah this weather is pretty BORING, i mean its cold so why not have an all out blizzard ya know, the weather is here for it, so mother nature needs to satisfy our needs for snow and lots of it.

  16. Doug in Flora says:

    You know it’s bad, when you see polar bears wearing parkas…;-)

  17. mad man from afghanistan says:

    I hurd that doug, lol

  18. Jim says:

    Mad man. 2-3 inches where you living at?

  19. Jim says:

    Gfs supports 4-6 inches. I think chad has better sources. Looks like thurs night is problem time what you say chad mad man looks good

  20. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Just watched chads forecast, things are looking great for 4 to 6, this storm is coming from minnesota, soit can not track to southern indiana, haha, its our turn now, soithern indiana had theres already.

  21. Jim says:

    Gfs supports 4-6 inches mad man this may be it. But we have been here before.

  22. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Oh jim have some faith will ya, lol, its ours bro, this one is all ours,..

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