Comparing Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer-Fall 2012-13 ForecastJanuary 17th, 2013 at 10:14 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Here is the winter forecast originally posted in mid-September. It has gone well except for one thing…………..I figured October would be drier & warmer than it actually was. It turned out to be a cool, wet October. We did hit 70 on one day in December, far above the projection of maximum December temperature of 59, however.
We are 4-0 on Christmases (predicting whether they will be white or not). Milder, drier, tranquil pattern predicted for January is going well with a much colder, snowier latter half. We have only had a trace of January, but had an original forecast of 7.2″ for January. We will see how that goes.
Overall this has been a forgetable winter; nothing outstanding. It has not been overly warm, not overly cold, not overly snowy, not overly wet……….just…………..well, there. I still think normal snowfall & bit above-normal temps will dominate this winter in a so-so winter of nothing spectacular.
So you can compare what was predicted & what transpired & what to expect in the spring, summer & fall 2013. We will see how well we do.
The southern U.S. has been wet, wet, wet & pretty snowy (only issue is that Oklahoma has not been too snowy, but heavy rains & snows have gone deep into Texas). The Southwest U.S. has been wet, wet, wet, snowy & cold, too. PINEAPPLE EXPRESS has been active all winter…………just check out that moisture plume from Hawaii & the southwest Pacific recently……wow.
We’ve nailed the previous forecasts well. Using the same techniques, hopefully we nail this winter (& fall, spring & next summer). We are 3-0 in White Christmas forecasts.
FALL: COOL, WET EARLY FALL, THEN DRIER & WARMER LATTER FALL………….
WINTER: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER WITH NORMAL SNOWFALL……
SPRING: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SPRING…………BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL
SUMMER: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL NEXT SUMMER……………
FALL 2013: WARM, DRY EARLY NEXT FALL (DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE), THEN WET & COOL LATE FALL……….
EL NINO: As of September 12, El Nino is weak in the Pacific with a 0.7 reading on a scale of 0 (neutral) to 3 (very strong El Nino)…………….(-3 would be very strong La Nina, -1.0 or 0.5 weak La Nina).
Forecast guidance suggests El Nino to increase in intensity to a weak event by December-January, then largely turn to neutral status by early next summer. Wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a hair stronger, but not anticipating a big event.
Lack of Arctic ice due to warmth & strong winds of incredibly strong polar vortex & the strong polar vortex bottling some of the Arctic air up will make this winter nothing extremely warm, but not really cold either. Snowfall will run normal, give strong subtropical jet interacting with some cold spells here. One icing event is likely (mixed with snow & sleet in February), but it does not look major.
Volcanic aerosols are not above normal & given polar vortex personality last year & right now, thinking NAO/AO will spend a lot of time in the neutral to positive phase.
1934-35 was a strong match for the upcoming fall-winter-spring-summer in terms Northern Hemisphere pattern & U.S. soil moisture pattern. 1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1940 all had hot, dry summers with rainfall relief in early to mid-August, but only 1934 saw the heat wave migrate westward pretty much stay just west of us mid- to late-August through September, just like now. Much higher soil moisture here developed by early September, while the Plains continued the same pattern as in summer (just like now).
1934-35 was not outstanding. It had normal to above-normal snowfall & above normal temperatures & below-normal precipitation.
I think what will bring us normal snowfall is the strong, moisture-charged subtropical jet reacting with our seasonably cold air. So, that is why I forecasted normal snowfall & two winter-storm watch/warning events.
Thinking the southwest U.S. mountains, southern Plains & mid-Atlantic & northeast U.S. could get pretty big snows. There will be several big Nor’easters in the northeast with one significant ice storm in the Piedmont & coastal Plain of the Carolinas, into the Appalachians & as far north as Virginia. It could be a really damaging ice storm. Arctic airmass eastern Ohio to the Northeast will support very impressive lake effect (perhaps some record lake effect snows) around Cleveland, Buffalo & Jamestown.
I think unseasonable snows may occur at low elevations in the Desert Southwest with perhaps a record 4-6″ snow for Tucson, even Albuquerque may see a BIG snow event. Flooding will be possible in southern California to Texas with snows in northern & central Texas to Oklahoma. I think there may be one event where a cold upper low brings wet snow to Dallas, Austin with perhaps flakes to San Antonio & Little Rock. The southern U.S. just looks wet with frequent rain & storms with a lot of chilly, gray days. Strong subtropical jet will support a higher-than-normal potential of severe weather events in the South, specifically on the Gulf Coast & on the Florida peninsula. Combine such moisture with cold air from all of the Northeast snow damming up in the Appalachians & you spell trouble for icing in the Appalachians, Piedmont & Coastal Plain (see above).
Temperatures: Below-Normal (-1.9)
Max Temperature: 90
Min Temperature: 37
Rainfall: Above -Normal (+1.03″)
Early-mid September may be wet with slightly-above normal temperatures overall, but chilly pattern will below-normal rainfall is likely latter month. In fact patchy frost is possible on two occasions late month. That pattern will carry us to early October.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+2.0)
Max Temperature: 83
Min Temperature: 27
Rainfall: Below-Normal (-0.52″)
After a chilly latter September to early October, I expect above-normal temperature to return for October. There will be many days in the 70s & in the 80s. Even in early October, after the chilly latter September, 80s are possible. The first freeze is likely around October 15 with 31 & first 20s October 25 with 27. Rainfall looks below-normal.
Right now, doesn’t look like any big substantial weather events, but we may have a few t’storms on one day.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+3.8)
Max Temperature: 73
Min Temperature: 20
Rainfall: Below-Normal (-0.93″)
November looks windy & mild with below-normal rainfall. We may open the first few days with 60s & 70s one day. From the 5th through the 15th it looks like a lot of 50s & 40s with a stretch of warm 60s, even some lower 70s mid-month possible. In fact, we may fit together 4 or 5 days in the 60s to lower 70s, before a line of storms (severe) slices through & ends the mild stretch. Late month looks cooler, but I am currently doubtful any reading below 20 will occur.
From Thanksgiving onward, 40s are a good bet, but I do not see a high temperature below 40 in November. Snowfall looks below normal with only a trace on 2 days.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+1.3)
Max Temperature: 59
Min Temperature: 6
Rainfall: Above-Normal (-0.77″)
Snowfall: Near Normal (5.2″) Normal is 5.9″
The first high temperature below 40 will be in early, early December with the first teens night around December 8. The early half of December looks below-normal temperature-wise with a lot of highs in the 20s & 30s with 3-4 minor snows of less than 1.3″. One snow will reach 3″, followed by an overnight low of 6 towards the end of the cold snap. However, after December 20, it looks more normal to above normal with several days of highs in the 40s & a few 50s with more in the way of rain than snow.
It does not look like a White Christmas this year (1″ or more of snowfall on the ground Christmas morning).
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+2.4)
Max Temperature: 61
Min Temperature: -6
Precipitation: Near Normal (+0.05″)
Snowfall: Near Normal (7.2″) Normal is 7.4″
The first half of January looks pretty mild with 3-4 days in the 50s (one day at 61) & several days in the 40s. The second half of January looks colder with more in the way of 20s & 30s with one icing event & several minor 1-3″ snows & one 4-6″ snow & -6 right after that snowfall. There may even be some icing with that 4-6″ event in our southern counties. However, I think we will sneak in one 55-degree day in latter January.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+2.1)
Max Temperature: 63
Min Temperature: -7
Precipitation: Near Normal (+0.05″)
Snowfall: Near Normal (4.7″) Normal is 4.9″
The first half of February looks seasonably cold with lots of highs in the 30s & some minor 1-3″ snows. Although mid-February may be mild with one day at 58 & one at 63, a cold front will pass & may bring a winter weather event to end the month with a mix of sleet, freezing & snow with 2-5″ of snowfall. There may be some 1/8 – 1/4″ ice accumulations with that winter weather event in late February.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+2.3)
Max Temperature: 75
Min Temperature: 13
Precipitation: Below-Normal (-0.92″)
Snowfall: Below Normal (1.1″)
Early March looks warm with several days in the 60s with one day at 73. However, mid March looks like 30s & 40s with one 1.1″ snowfall. Late March looks like it will go back to several days in the 60s & even 2-3 days at 70-75. As March ends & April begins, 40s will chill it down with a 50s April Fool’s Day (see April below).
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+3.3)
Max Temperature: 87
Min Temperature: 25
Precipitation: Below-Normal (-0.98″)
Snowfall: Below-Normal (0)
Early April may be a little on the raw side with some 40s & 50s days mixed with a few 60s days. Troughiness with periodic scattered showers will dominate the pattern here. However, the tables will turn after April 14 with 3-4 days of 80s & strong winds & a strong upper ridge migrating from the west, into our area. A severe weather event may end this surge of summer warmth with a stair-step cool-down with a patchy frost of 31-34 to end the month.
I am forecasting 1 severe weather event & 1 confirmed tornado in the viewing area in April 2013.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+3.0)
Max Temperature: 92
Min Temperature: 35
Precipitation: Below-Normal (-1.46″)
Early May looks like April with sort of raw, cool, showery conditions with a trough for the first week or two, followed by a stair-step surge of warmth mid to late May. Latter May looks summery with 85-90 frequently & passing waves of some storms. This all spells high evaporation & below-normal rainfall. Concern may arise again in regards to drought & D0 to D1 conditions are possible, but consistent rains will return in June.
Right now, I expect a GOOD crop year with the crop getting out early & timely & the dry May preventing drowned-out spots in fields. The below-normal rainfall for this May may work on some nerves, given the horrendous 2012, though.
I only expect 2 severe events in May & 1 tornado in the viewing area.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+1.8)
Max Temperature: 96
Min Temperature: 48
Precipitation: Above-Normal (+1.17″)
June 2013 looks warmer than normal, but nothing out of control with consistent waves of t’storms & 3 severe events for the month. I am forecasting 2 confirmed tornadoes in the viewing area for the month. It looks overall hot & muggy, but nothing excessive. Late month heat wave with highs of 94-98 with dew points in the 70s & heat indices to 110 will be the worst of the heat.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+1.7)
Max Temperature: 97
Min Temperature: 54
Precipitation: Above-Normal (+0.63″)
July will have a continuation of waves of storms, but mid-month dry spell in a good chunk of the viewing area may fray nerves of growers. Rolling of the corn may occur on sandy fields & high upland loamy/clay fields in pollination time, but I am doubtful of big yield losses (some though). The mesic, black, loamy soils will fair okay. I think 3 severe events are likely, but no tornadoes. Thinking the events will be multi-cellular storm events of wind/hail & maybe one main squall line.
Mid-month dry spell with have highs of 95-100 in the area with 97 at West Lafayette. These numbers would occur for around 3 days.
July will be an above-normal month overall for temperatures, but a couple cool snaps with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 & lows in the 50s will help.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+1.4)
Max Temperature: 96
Min Temperature: 52
Precipitation: Normal (+0.21″)
August rainfall looks normal with multi-cell storms & consistent heat & humidity with above-normal temperatures. Cool spell for 2 days early & late month will drop it to 50-55 at night.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+1.2)
Max Temperature: 91
Min Temperature: 45
Precipitation: Normal (+0.20″)
Normal rainfall & above-normal temperatures will occur in September 2013, but most of the rainfall may be early in the month & then again late. One from cold front, second wave from a tropical system. Mid-month will see a 45-degree night. That 91 will tend to occur very early in the month.
Temperatures: Above-Normal (+2.5)
Max Temperature: 85
Min Temperature: 27
Precipitation: Below-Normal (-1.05″)…………Monthly Total: 1.68″
October 2013 looks to have two personalities. First half, warm & very dry with little/no rainfall. After October 18, I like below-normal temperatures & above-normal rainfall with several very raw days. 85 will occur in the first half of the month, followed by many 40s & 50s days after October 18. The first freeze October 24 will see the 27. First 18 days of the month will see two nights at 36 & that is it, though 40s at night will be common.