Two Big Winter Storms South of Us This Week (Still Need to Watch This First Winter Storm Track)January 14th, 2013 at 11:51 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
A big winter storm will bring snow, sleet & freezing rain from Texas to Kentucky & Alabama today-Tuesday.
An ICE STORM WARNING is in effect for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas & Mississippi for damaging ice accumulations. We have had some flurries & very light snow around this morning in the area, BUT I still want to watch this southern storm. It is spreading SNOW into Missouri & I want to make sure there is not a sudden jog to the northwest, bringing us snow. In analog data, there is an overwhelming number of cases where this has happened. This happened in southern Indiana a few weeks ago where projection were 1-2″ at first & they ended up with 6″ of snow.
Another winter storm will bring accumulating snowfall from Austin, Texas to Louisville, Kentucky late this week.
Why do the winter storms continue to go south of us? A big part of the winter forecast (& reason I went for very wet pattern California to Georgia with above-normal snowfall there) is that impressive subtropical jet. The cold air mixed with that subtropical jet results in the wintry precipitation. That extremely strong jet is due to an El Nino Modoki regime with unusually warm water in the central Pacific, but also very, very warm water in an area of the far southwest Pacific.
It has been a very wet, cold winter in southern California & Arizona to Texas. Phoenix just had their coldest stretch of weather since 1988. Los Angeles reported its coldest temperature in 22 years yesterday with 34 degrees. Lakeview, Oregon dropped to -26, the coldest temperature there on record, beating the old all-time record of -24 set in 1888. A freeze affected areas around Los Angeles with reservoirs now at or beyond capacity after drought conditions. Recently, very heavy rainfall (cold rain!) in Texas greatly dented the long-term drought.