UpdateJanuary 10th, 2013 at 11:45 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
As of 12 p.m., scattered showers are moving through Warren, Fountain, Boone & Montgomery counties. Scattered showers will tend to increase through the afternoon with the widespread, steady rains arriving tonight. It will be a chilly rain. As of 12 p.m. it is 39.6 degrees with a stiff east wind at 14 mph, dropping wind chills to near 30. We are headed for high of 42, but temperatures will rise all night.
I am making one single change to the forecast: data supports addition of “isolated t’storms” into the forecast with the rain tonight. Otherwise, everything looks good in the forecast per new model data with two storm systems & a total of 1-2″ of rainfall by Saturday night. The 59 tomorrow & 58 for highs Friday & Saturday look good.
Wabash looks to near minor flood stage by early next week at Lafayette & Covington. Creek rises will occur, too, but no substantial flooding is expected at this time. The 1-2″ will fall over a 3-day period, which will prevent substantial flooding, despite all the snow melt & the big thaw. Also, rivers & streams are very low for the time of year anyway.
New data keeps snow & ice southeast of here Monday-Tuesday, BUT there has been constant wobbling back & forth with storm track, so prefer to keep the snow &/or mix in the forecast. This cold core upper low may bring scattered rain/graupal showers with thunder to southern California, followed by an unusual freeze to Burbank, California Sunday night & patchy frost potential to downtown Los Angeles (highs only near 54 downtown L.A.).
The cold upper low would then pivot into south Texas & induce surface low formation in a baroclinic zone over the northern Gulf (word just means big temperature difference from cold over Texas & warm Gulf………called an “anchor”.
Looking back at analog data of similar situations like this (where you have an upper system coming out of southern California to northern Mexico, which induces surface cyclogenesis (surface low pressure formation)] on a similar Arctic front in Texas/Louisiana. 90% of such occurrence brought snow to our area with data going back to 1871, but better data starting around 1905. Best data begins in the 1950s. There are exceptions in a statistics & this may or may not be one, but this is high probability.
Models crank out up to 5″ of snow in southern Indiana & up to 0.4″ of ice in Kentucky from system Monday-Tuesday. However, they also dump up to 4″ of snow with up to 0.2″ ice in parts of Illinois Saturday night as cold air rushes in.
If you take the GFS model right now for what its worth, it paints winter weather west of here & south & southeast of here, with us in a strip of little, if anything. AGAIN, however, I am not ready to go with that. There is way too much disagreement with the whole set-up.