Update

January 10th, 2013 at 11:45 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOW-SATURDAY………….

As of 12 p.m., scattered showers are moving through Warren, Fountain, Boone & Montgomery counties.  Scattered showers will tend to increase through the afternoon with the widespread, steady rains arriving tonight.  It will be a chilly rain.  As of 12 p.m. it is 39.6 degrees with a stiff east wind at 14 mph, dropping wind chills to near 30.  We are headed for high of 42, but temperatures will rise all night.

I am making one single change to the forecast:  data supports addition of “isolated t’storms” into the forecast with the rain tonight.  Otherwise, everything looks good in the forecast per new model data with two storm systems & a total of 1-2″ of rainfall by Saturday night.  The 59 tomorrow & 58 for highs Friday & Saturday look good.

Wabash looks to near minor flood stage by early next week at Lafayette & Covington.  Creek rises will occur, too, but no substantial flooding is expected at this time.  The 1-2″ will fall over a 3-day period, which will prevent substantial flooding, despite all the snow melt & the big thaw.  Also, rivers & streams are very low for the time of year anyway.

MONDAY-TUESDAY……….

New data keeps snow & ice southeast of here Monday-Tuesday, BUT there has been constant wobbling back & forth with storm track, so prefer to keep the snow &/or mix in the forecast.  This cold core upper low may bring scattered rain/graupal showers with thunder to southern California, followed by an unusual freeze to Burbank, California Sunday night & patchy frost potential to downtown Los Angeles (highs only near 54 downtown L.A.).

The cold upper low would then pivot into south Texas & induce surface low formation in a baroclinic zone over the northern Gulf (word just means big temperature difference from cold over Texas & warm Gulf………called an “anchor”.

Looking back at analog data of similar situations like this (where you have an upper system coming out of southern California to northern Mexico, which induces surface cyclogenesis (surface low pressure formation)] on a similar Arctic front in Texas/Louisiana.  90% of such occurrence brought snow to our area with data going back to 1871, but better data starting around 1905.  Best data begins in the 1950s.  There are exceptions in a statistics & this may or may not be one, but this is high probability.

Models crank out up to 5″ of snow in southern Indiana & up to 0.4″ of ice in Kentucky from system Monday-Tuesday.  However, they also dump up to 4″ of snow with up to 0.2″ ice in parts of Illinois Saturday night as cold air rushes in.

If you take the GFS model right now for what its worth, it paints winter weather west of here & south & southeast of here, with us in a strip of little, if anything.  AGAIN, however, I am not ready to go with that.  There is way too much disagreement with the whole set-up.

10 Responses to “Update”

  1. Chris in Tipton says:

    I am over the GFS—–it seems to wobble worse than a politician running for office….LOL!

  2. Teri says:

    Now that the snow has melted I am seeing GREEN grass for a change, and flowers popping up..goodness.

  3. Tom says:

    All of this rain coming up might remind the older folks of January 1950, when over 8 inches of rain fell during the month at West Lafayette.

  4. Mary Anne Best says:

    And it has just now started to rain in Remington! Praying we get some nice, soaking rain :-)

    MA in REM

  5. Tom says:

    I left off at the end of March 1977 and will continue from there. If the winter of 1976-1977 wasn’t long enough, a trace of snow was recorded on April 6 and the temp. fell to 30 degrees. It started to warm up after that, but it was too dry until August. April 18 saw 86 degrees and from May 13 until June first, everyday was above 80 degrees. It was 90 degrees on May 29. only .07 inches of rain fell from May 20 until June 5 1977. Everyone was happy on June 6 when 0.60 inches of rain was recorded. Then the temp. fell to 40 degrees on June 7. 0.69 inches of rain was blamed for 2 traffic accidents in the Lafayette area on Wed June 8, but very little rain fell the rest of June. The first half of July 1977 was too hot and the second half was too cold. It was very much like July 1911 and the winter of 1911-1912 was a very bad winter. It was 95 on July 4 1977 and 98 on the 6th of July, but the temp. fell to 45 degrees on July 26 and the high that day was just 76 degrees at West Lafayette. That was just the start of what was to come.

  6. Tom says:

    April, June and July 1977 were too dry, but August was too wet. 9.44 inches of rain fell at West Lafayette that August. 4.04 inches of rain fell between Thursday Aug. 4 and Sunday Aug. 7. September 1977 was also too wet. On Tuesday September 13 2.52 inches of rain fell. 1.19 inches of rain fell between 1 and 2pm that day at West Lafayette. Basements and roads were flooded. That was one time when the viewing area got hit hard and others did not. Delphi received 3.57 inches of rain and Monticello 3.40 inches, but Indianapolis only got 0.32 inches.

  7. Tom says:

    October 1977 started off with 2.47 inches of rain at West Lafayette. Parts of Vermillion and Warren counties were pounded with rain, wind and hail the Friday night of Sept. 30. Two football games were called because of the storm. High winds blew out glass and turned over trailers at Lake Hide-A-Way in Fountain County. Over 4 inches of rain was reported at Crawfordsville. Water rose to the hoods of cars at Digby and 10th streets in Lafayette. Lightning struck the No.1 station of the West Lafayette Fire Department knocking out the station’s transmitter. At least that wasn’t snow because there would be plenty of that to come.

  8. Tom says:

    Winter came early to the viewing area in 1977. The first snow of the season started falling shortly before 5am on Sunday November 27 and continued into the afternoon. 3 inches of snow fell from that system. The temp. fell to 6 degrees on the morning of the 28th and made the roads icy. Some schools opened late that day. December 1977 was the start of the real fun.

  9. Mary Anne Best says:

    Very interesting reading, Tom! On July 4, 1963 my youngest daughter was born. The preceding week was hot and humid. We came home from the hospital on July 7th and needed HEAT in the house for the new baby :-)

    MA in REM (rain is teasing, only .01 so far in the gauge)

  10. Mike in Dayton says:

    Just testing to see if the dates are correct

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