UpdateDecember 30th, 2012 at 11:04 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Light snow possible as early as tomorrow morning, into tomorrow afternoon……….with the bulk of the accumulating snow tomorrow evening-night as two rounds of snow pass. The second one looks more intense than the first.
Still looks like some narrow bands of intense frontogenic banding of snowfall in our southern counties. The frontogenic banding is also focused in that Snow Growth Zone (SGZ) with upper dynamics overspreading the area as trough swings eastward. This does make the forecast a little difficult. In that 3-4″ there will probably be some locations with only 1.5-2″ & some locations with 4″, possibly 5″. I kept a generic 3-4″ though. We have to make sure there is no shift in these banding features.
Same thing for Lafayette area. 2-3″ looks good, but there will be narrow, narrow frontogenic banding with final totals of 1.3″ in some locales & 3″ elsewhere. Makes trying to get a nice, accurate snowfall projection map slightly problematic & models definitely do not handle such small details well. Look at the other night…..10″ northwest side of Indy……4.5″ at Indy NWS office & 6.5″ Hamilton County. Imagine thinking of forecasting 4-10″ variation for one city based on these banding features; extremely difficult.
Then, the previous storm……….4.0″ band West Lafayette to West Point & Attica to Covington. Northeast side of Lafayette measured 4.0″ with 2.5″ at Shadeland. In the city of Frankfort 8.0″ fell, but 5.5″ near Clark’s Hill & 6.0″ just east of Frankfort.
Farther north, kept it 1-2″ with less than 1″ in the far north. So, less than 1″ to isolated 5″ amounts possible across the entire viewing area with the highest amounts in the south.