UpdateDecember 30th, 2012 at 10:58 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Most of the new data keeps the 4-6″ amounts in western Illinois & into Missouri. Looks like the 8-10″ amounts will be in Kansas & parts of western Missouri as intense frontogenic banding develops.
In our viewing area, will go with a 1-5″ snow & drop the 6″ amount. It still looks like the heaviest accumulations will be in our far southern areas from Kingman, Crawfordsville & Ladoga to Thorntown, Lebanon, Tipton & Atlanta.
So, 1-2″ will do in the north half with isolated 5″ amounts in the far south. Lafayette/West Lafayette 2-3″ total looks good from the two waves (a bit of lowering from the 3-3.5″ projection yesterday). There is nice frontogenic forcing seen at 20,000 (especially in our far south) so banding features of the snowfall are a good bet, resulting in some pretty variable snowfall amounts in the viewing area (like the last two systems). This is what may bring a 5″ amount in a couple isolated locations.
This would tend to occur with one wave of light snow Monday afternoon-evening, then a break & another wave of snow Monday night-Tuesday morning.
It still looks like brisk, gusty southeast to then north winds of up to 25 mph may accompany most of the snow, resulting in some blowing & drifting. However, the winds will slack off Monday night-Tuesday morning.
Stay tuned for any additional tweaks to the forecast.
Overall, negative NAO/AO pattern with below-normal temperatures & split flow, will result in cold, rather dry pattern to next weekend with just a clipper Friday in northern branch of jet. This may bring 1-2″ of fluffy, dry snow Friday.