Preliminary Snowfall ProjectionDecember 23rd, 2012 at 12:50 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Not impressive shortwave & weak surface cold front, but some flurries/snow showers, perhaps even some drizzle/light showers/freezing drizzle is possible.
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS………
There has been a northwestward shift with several models overnight with this “Inside Runner”-type system. It appears, currently, the heaviest band is lining up from northeastern Arkansas to near Evansville to near Kokomo & Fort Wayne, but I am not sold on this track yet.
As of 12:49 p.m. data is all snow for the area with a change-over to sleet around Indianapolis & rain changing to a mix to snow in southwestern & southern Indiana.
GFS & NAM has 6-10″ snow for our area. NOGAPS 3-6″, CMC 1-4″, Japanese model 0.5-2″, European 1-4″, GEM has very little snowfall here with nearly all of it along & south of the Ohio River.
I still like the tendency for a northwestward shift in the track with some sleet (but not as convinced of much freezing rain, but perhaps a bit in our southeast), followed by snow. Accumulations likely & currently think agreement is decent enough to throw out a general number of 1-4″ from northwest to southeast across the viewing area, for now with possibility of higher totals.
Gusty winds of up to 40 mph with the system will create lots of blowing & drifting snowfall.