Winter Weather Still Good Bet Wednesday But Disagreement Remains with TrackDecember 23rd, 2012 at 12:07 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Any light snow/flurries on Christmas Eve looks very, very minor with weak shortwave & surface cold front.
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS………….
Confidence is high for some winter weather the day after Christmas, but the devil is in the details.
GFS has about 6-9″ snow for the area, NAM 0.5-2″ with 6-9″ in southwest Indiana. NOGAPS still has us in better spot for significant snow (6-9″), while Canadian keeps nearly all of the snow southeast of here. GEM has nearly all of the snow SOUTH of the Ohio River! European has snow missing us largely with only a little up here & 6-10″ in southern Indiana. Ensembles still show a lot of disagreement on track, which throws issues of precipitation type (sleet, freezing rain, snow) & accumulation amounts into the mix (some a lot, some much less) due to shifts in track.
Still will stick with some icy mix with changeover to all snow. Accumulations are still in question, as is storm track. However, count on wintry precipitation, perhaps all snow OR to all snow Wednesday-Thursday morning. I say that based on an analog trend pointing towards probability of northwestward shift, which would pull warm layer in to make some sleet, perhaps freezing rain mixing in. Again, accumulations are in lots of question & I do not see enough agreement either from an analog or model standpoint (consistently with ensembles & disagreement in analog) to commit to anything. Many times, I can, this time I cannot.
There is still good agreement on accumulating snow near New Years.
Abundant Midwestern, Plains & Canadian snowpack with negative NAO/AO will keep temperatures below normal for the most part to early January, at least.