Winter Weather Still Good Bet Wednesday But Disagreement Remains with Track

December 23rd, 2012 at 12:07 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

CHRISTMAS EVE…………

Any light snow/flurries on Christmas Eve looks very, very minor with weak shortwave & surface cold front.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS………….

Confidence is high for some winter weather the day after Christmas, but the devil is in the details.

GFS has about 6-9″ snow for the area, NAM 0.5-2″ with 6-9″ in southwest Indiana.  NOGAPS still has us in better spot for significant snow (6-9″), while Canadian keeps nearly all of the snow southeast of here.  GEM has nearly all of the snow SOUTH of the Ohio River!  European has snow missing us largely with only a little up here & 6-10″ in southern Indiana.  Ensembles still show a lot of disagreement on track, which throws issues of precipitation type (sleet, freezing rain, snow) & accumulation amounts into the mix (some a lot, some much less) due to shifts in track.

Still will stick with some icy mix with changeover to all snow.  Accumulations are still in question, as is storm track.  However, count on wintry precipitation, perhaps all snow OR to all snow Wednesday-Thursday morning.  I say that based on an analog trend pointing towards probability of northwestward shift, which would pull warm layer in to make some sleet, perhaps freezing rain mixing in.  Again, accumulations are in lots of question & I do not see enough agreement either from an analog or model standpoint (consistently with ensembles & disagreement in analog) to commit to anything.  Many times, I can, this time I cannot.

There is still good agreement on accumulating snow near New Years.

Abundant Midwestern, Plains & Canadian snowpack with negative NAO/AO will keep temperatures below normal for the most part to early January, at least.

18 Responses to “Winter Weather Still Good Bet Wednesday But Disagreement Remains with Track”

  1. Mary Anne Best says:

    Thanks, Chad for all you do for us to keep informed! My prayers is that you stay in Laffy for a LONNNGGG time!!!

    MA in REM

  2. jackie says:

    Weather Channel and others today are still forcasting it South of here

  3. ch n ffort says:

    Winter storm “euclid” is comin head on

  4. Crista says:

    It is still too early to make sure of the exact track, but the Weather Channel is never right..

  5. Josh says:

    Just saw the weather channel and they showed the snowfall totals for the storm Euclid and they had us in the pink

  6. Crista says:

    I think I saw one of those polar bears marching in….

  7. Crista says:

    I didnt know they named winter storms too….funny. Kind of a silly name for a winter storm. :)

  8. Josh says:

    Weather channel just mentioned lafayette in the winter weather update

  9. Ryan H says:

    GFS still had us around the 8″ range. Still looks good here.

  10. Brad says:

    Ryan, Where do you go to look at the gfs model runs

  11. mad man from afghanistan says:

    Josh i saw the weather channel as well, its looking pretty good for our area if it holds up, we can only hope!!!!!!!!!

  12. Doug in Flora says:

    If a winter storm named “OMG” comes our way, I think we may have a problem. ;-)

  13. Teri says:

    What ever mother nature decides to do, I hope all stay safe..Bad for the Holiday travelers. And Ditto Mary Anne!

  14. mad man from afghanistan says:

    SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW,SNOW, MAYBE THIS WILL GET THE RED FAT MANS ATTENTION, LOL

  15. Monster says:

    Just checked model runs and almost every model has it hitting Lafayette head on. Even the 12 Z NAM model HAD US IN GOOD SNOW. Come on snow.

  16. Brad says:

    What website do you guys use to look at computer models

  17. Monster says:

    Coolwx models

  18. Brad says:

    thank you

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