Winter Weather Event Still On-Track For Day After Christmas (& Near New Years)

December 22nd, 2012 at 12:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Today, trend has been for a more northwesterly track compared to model solutions last night.  I definitely agree with this with ridge anchored off shore in the Atlantic.  Analog still suggest further northwestward shift.

As always, can never take models at face value to make a forecast & a model projection is not a forecast, but guidance to make the call.  Models are like doing calculus problems, one small glitch & the model projection snowballs into a different solution.  Ensembles help with this, that is running the model several times for output, but is not 100%.  There is quality control, but if one temperature sensor on the ground reads too high or dew point observation too high or low, then the model output can be thrown.

Better upper air sampling & a nice round-up of surface observations will continue to help determine a general storm track.  Upper air sampling is less when the system is still offshore & you do not have the surface observations to funnel into model supercomputers to spit out projections.  Once the actual storm makes it on-land, your sampling gets so much better.

However, temperature profile 0-20,000′ up looks like nearly all, if not all, snow.  Will keep mix wording in forecast with changeover to snow & modify if needed.

Still looks like “Inside Runner” track.  GFS has a 6-9″ snowfall across our area, BUT that is a long way out.  Will wait & see, but confidence is still high on winter weather event the day after Christmas.

Still looks like a potential winter weather event on the day after Christmas.

12z GFS model:

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22 Responses to “Winter Weather Event Still On-Track For Day After Christmas (& Near New Years)”

  1. ch n ffort says:

    Hey chad those isobars look awful close together..”if” this model holds true??…lots of wind too i suppose?

  2. Josh says:

    This is AWESOME!!! Hope is stays on track!!

  3. mad man from afghanistan says:

    white county snow lovers got there fingers crossed Chad, It would be nice to see a very good snowfall here so kids and adults can enjoy some good ole fun in the snow

  4. Ryan H says:

    Did anyone actually doubt Chad? If you haven’t learned by now, the man is right probably 98% of the time! Post Christmas storm—–bring it on!

  5. Teri says:

    Thank yuo for the heads up Chad!

  6. Crista says:

    Crossing my fingers….hope its a lot of snow!

  7. Ryan H says:

    Chad– What does the 500MB heights tell you as opposed to the Surface pressure maps. I guess, what does the 500MB hace to do with the Surface low pressure?

  8. Ryan H says:

    18Z GFS also has systems heavy snow right over the viewing area. I like it!

  9. Monster says:

    Ok I’m getting really excited. I’m at a family x-mas party and its all I’m talking about LOL. I need an update what is everyone seeing? Are we gona finally get a big boy storm????

  10. jackie says:

    just checked weather channel, and in the special weather statements for Indiana nws looks like its forcasting for it to go further south towards southern IN an KY.. guess we’ll wait and see

  11. jackie says:

    just checked out some other forcasts… yep looks like its all gonna go south… just our luck..again.. but anything can change in a couple days i guess

  12. Jeff says:

    What is your thinking on the Monday system? National Weather Service is throwing in a chance of snow on Monday, as are some other sources. I personally hope that we do not see snow on Monday.

  13. Monster says:

    I just checked nws and they had it going south last night. But GFS has it hitting us head on so we will listen to Chad. That guy is money on his forecast.

  14. Monster says:

    Jackie they had it going south last night trust chad he is conservative and his forecast is money.

  15. Monster says:

    Heck ya GFS has it hitting us head on yaaaaaaaaaaa.

  16. Crista says:

    Im with Monster on this. Chad has been pretty accurate …..mostly with his snow predictions. Even when I dont like his conservativeness….lol. Anyway…its awfully far out to write anything in stone. Ill freak out on Monday night if they are still calling for it. However…it does look like theres a lot of snow in the next week. :)

  17. Jennifer says:

    I would love to see that much snow!!! Sledding for the kids!!!

  18. Ryan H says:

    @ Christa —We can only hope Christa…. 0Z NAM out showing the storm a little further south, but I think the NAM is usually most accurate within 48 hours or so. The 0Z GFS will be out around 11PM. The new EURO will be out around 115 AM. We’ll know more then. :)

  19. Ryan H says:

    Whoa! FOX 59 had us getting 2″ on Monday???? What’s this about?

  20. Crista says:

    I saw that too. Kind of in line with what noaa is saying. They have a good chance of snow too…but havent speculated on accumulations. Sometimes it seems like fox jumps the gun a bit. Dont you think?

  21. Crista says:

    Anyway….it will make it easier on the reindeer….;)

  22. Ryan H says:

    Definitely need the snow for Santa! The GFS appears to be holding steady for good snow here.

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