Next Week…..Nice Upper Air Sampling Out West Will Help Establish Track Over the Next Few DaysDecember 22nd, 2012 at 1:17 am by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
On to next week’s system (& a potential second system near New Years)………..
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS…………
GFS has heaviest snow southeast of us Wednesday in the southeastern half of Indiana, NOGAPS has a perfect track for significant snowfall here, Canadian has heaviest snow Arkansas to southern Ohio, European has the heaviest snow southeast of us, as does the Japanese model. However, every single model does bring SOME snow to the area.
They have all pulled away from wintry mix & all lean towards snow.
I still would not rule out the wintry mix to snow scenario, given analog data indicating potential of more of a northwest track.
I think what can be gleaned from this is that there is obvious wobbling back & forth in the track among model solutions & that today there is fairly cohesive agreement of a more southerly track. Key word is TODAY.
I still feel good about going with wintry mix to snow forecast with no clear direction on accumulations & like a more northwesternly track across Kentucky & Indiana & the heaviest snowfall in Illinois.
Time will tell what direction we ultimately 100% go, but data in the coming days will reveal more. As the big storm arrives inland in the west & nice upper air sampling is done & fed in supercomputers to spit out models, track will become much more apparent.
NEAR NEW YEAR’S…………
There are signs of a system near New Year’s with wintry mix &/or snow.