Next Week…..Nice Upper Air Sampling Out West Will Help Establish Track Over the Next Few Days

December 22nd, 2012 at 1:17 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

On to next week’s system (& a potential second system near New Years)………..


GFS has heaviest snow southeast of us Wednesday in the southeastern half of Indiana, NOGAPS has a perfect track for significant snowfall here, Canadian has heaviest snow Arkansas to southern Ohio,  European has the heaviest snow southeast of us, as does the Japanese model.  However, every single model does bring SOME snow to the area.

They have all pulled away from wintry mix & all lean towards snow.

I still would not rule out the wintry mix to snow scenario, given analog data indicating potential of more of a northwest track.

I think what can be gleaned from this is that there is obvious wobbling back & forth in the track among model solutions & that today there is fairly cohesive agreement of a more southerly track.  Key word is TODAY.

I still feel good about going with wintry mix to snow forecast with no clear direction on accumulations & like a more northwesternly track across Kentucky & Indiana & the heaviest snowfall in Illinois.

Time will tell what direction we ultimately 100% go, but data in the coming days will reveal more.  As the big storm arrives inland in the west & nice upper air sampling is done & fed in supercomputers to spit out models, track will become much more apparent.


There are signs of a system near New Year’s with wintry mix &/or snow.

7 Responses to “Next Week…..Nice Upper Air Sampling Out West Will Help Establish Track Over the Next Few Days”

  1. Mary Anne Best says:

    Thanks, Chad! We wx buffs are waiting with bated breath for this system coming in! Meanwhile I will enjoy a family gathering today under sunny skies!!

    Merry Christmas to you, Liz, Hadley and Balto. And to everyone else here on the blog. Be safe and have happy gatherings with family :-)

    MA in REM

  2. Bill in C'ville says:

    The new gfs model run looks good for a significant weather event here on the 26th. It is now inline with the NOGAPS model. The Christmas eve snow looks a little more intense now also.

  3. Bill in C'ville says:

    Not trying to hype the weather I just get a little excited,LOL.

  4. Josh says:

    Thanks bill for the update. Haven’t looked at it yet

  5. ch n ffort says:

    Whoa bill…how intense for x-mas? I don’t wanna have to work on x-mas..ur killin me…lol

  6. Bill in C'ville says:

    Christmas Eve doesn’t look bad at all 1-2″ maybe, just enough for a good Christmas atmosphere. ch n ffort you must be snowplow driver. The storm on the 26th looks like 6+ right now.

  7. ch n ffort says:

    Yea bill i am with a it only takes about an inch or two for me to have to saddle

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