*UPDATE*………Complete Information On Major Storm’s Impact On Us

December 19th, 2012 at 1:24 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

UPDATE………..

Have upped wind gusts in our northwest counties for late Thursday-Thursday night based on 18z model run showing better potential of gusts to 55 mph there.

NOW-MIDNIGHT……….

There is no good warm air advection yet into the area (warm air coming in).  Thermometer sits at 42.0 degrees as of 2:39 p.m. at WLFI with just a very light east-southeast wind.  It appears this warmth will not arrive until after dusk.  So, we will hit our high for the day after dusk as temperatures rise.

OVERNIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING…………..

Overnight, temperatures will rise as this warm air is funneled in ahead of that major storm with southeast & south winds increasing.  We will hit our high temperature for tomorrow in the morning at near 54.  Some scattered showers & perhaps a few t’storms will arrive overnight.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING…………

Tonight-Thursday will feature showers & a few t’storms arriving overnight-early, early in the morning with the main rain band with a few embedded t’storms passing Thursday morning.  This will likely be a squall line of severe t’storms from parts of Illinois, down to Arkansas, but not so here.  An overnight-mornign rain-wrapped tornado will be possible (with pockets of damaging straight-line wind) will be possible from Illinois southward to Arkansas.

It looks like more of a squally rain band here.  It does not look warm or unstable enough for severe threat, despite screaming wind fields & dynamics. If it were 60 or 62 in the morning, it would be a different story.

This band will pass & the rain may tend to shut off a bit as the strong cold front approaches & passes with the rapidly, re-intensifying surface low near Chicago.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING & OVERNIGHT………….

The Arctic front will blast through & the winds will howl with falling temperatures.  A few showers will go to snow in the evening with wind-driven snow showers & howling winds through the evening & into the night.

Even with near 1″ of snow, it will still blow around across roads & the 1-3″ farther north will blow, making for low visibility.  Winds may gust 45-50 mph.

Winds will still gust to 45 mph early Friday morning, bringing windchills down to -6 at times.  Friday itself will feature clouds & some sun with winds gusting 30-40 mph & temperatures only in the 20s.  Some flurries/few snow showers will be possible, while some lake effect snow showers will continue in our northeastern & eastern counties.

10-20″ of snow will fall Iowa to Wisconsin with gusts to 60 mph possible.  There, white-out conditions will develop tonight & last through Thursday night.  Blizzard Warnings are up from Colorado to Wisconsin.

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14 Responses to “*UPDATE*………Complete Information On Major Storm’s Impact On Us”

  1. Crista says:

    Why…..why….why does it keep missing us??? I want a Blizzard!

  2. Ryan H says:

    Patience Christa, patience.

  3. Ryan H says:

    Euro looks wound up here next week. NWS Indy seems to think mix or snow. Looks very windy too!

  4. Ryan H says:

    NWS INDY

    POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA…

    .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
    GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY…BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE
    AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

    INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-200500-
    /O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0004.121220T1800Z-121221T1500Z/
    CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
    BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
    PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAFAYETTE…FRANKFORT…KOKOMO…
    CRAWFORDSVILLE…ANDERSON…MUNCIE…INDIANAPOLIS…SHELBYVILLE
    350 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
    EST FRIDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW…WHICH IS IN
    EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

    * MAIN IMPACT: TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT WITH BLOWING SNOW AND
    STRONG WINDS.

    * WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

    * ACCUMULATIONS: OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

    * TIMING: STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM THURSDAY AND
    CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED
    TO START UNTIL AFTER 7 PM THURSDAY AND SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
    10 AM FRIDAY.

  5. Crista says:

    Ill take that advisory! :) Puts me in the Christmas spirit!

  6. Teri says:

    Not me!

  7. Allyn says:

    Crista, I’m right there with you!! It won’t be fun or feel like Christmas until it’s snowy!!! I’m praying hard! An inch on Christmas would be just fine. I’ll take 2 ft. though any day:)

  8. Chad Alenduff says:

    We maybe lucky now,. but the European models forecasted this storm that is coming in last week, and pretty much the location and everything where they were predicting it to take place and the timing were right on the money. THAT IS BAD NEWS: The European Model and the same models that hit the nail on the head almost perfectly with this set up when it predicted it last Thursday are predicting the same exact set up OVER INDIANA, including THIS AREA, with the timing being around the Day After Christmas, December 26. Said the PFA reading out in the Pacific are starting to realyl go positive and all finally, which hasn’t happened all month so far, and that will be that way for a short while, and the Arctic Isolation that is currently up in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia in Canada, where the whole country has been experiencing record cold, is going to be moving with this next system thanks to the jet from this system this week then a buckling jet, along with a low pressure system and the snow pack in this part of the country, next week with a similar set up with the low pressure and the jet that is occuring with this current system being almost exactly alike for next weeks set up the Day after Christmas according to the models. Because of this, it is looking like a blizzard could possibly occur again if it is cold enough. Also, if that Arctic Isolation drops down here like some models are saying it will, we will likely only see daytime highs in the teens with lows below zero at night. Definitely bears a situation worth watching: Current predictions are that the brunt of this system up in Wisconsin will dump somewhere in the range of 14-18″ of snow up there. That is not good, because most areas haven’t even had snow yet this season, and you get a big snowfall like that as your first measurable snow of the year, it is not going to be pretty. Never usually is pretty for driving and all and is always treacherous on the first snowfall of the year. This just multiplies the magnitude majorly of the possible severity it may cause for those people.

  9. Chad Alenduff says:

    In fact, up in Wisconsin with this system, they are just not predicting blizzard conditions and 14-18″ of snow, but the NWS in La Crosse, which covers SW Wisconsin and NE Iowa is using words in their Blizzard Warning Statement such as “Life Threatening”, “Very Dangerous”, “Severe”, and “Historical”. Listed in just first half of that statement:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
    623 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

    …HIGH IMPACT BLIZZARD MOVING IN…

    .SNOW IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING…AND WILL START TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
    WISCONSIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM…REACHING THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT…WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

    BLIZZARD TO NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE WINDS INCREASE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION…WITH VISIBILITIES 1/2 MILE OR LESS COMMON ELSEWHERE.

    THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM…WITH THE MOST EXTREME IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

    IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THE SEVERITY AND HISTORICAL NATURE OF THE SITUATION. PROTECT YOURSELF AND OTHERS BY STAYING HOME…GETTING TO YOUR TRAVEL DESTINATION BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS…AND PREPARING NOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING…DRIFTING AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. ROAD CREWS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE INTENSE SNOW RATES.

  10. Chad Alenduff says:

    So pretty much to sum it all up, we are dodging a HUGE bullet here with this system. Guessing maybe next week though the day or two after Christmas, we will not be so lucky…..

  11. Monster says:

    Hay chad alenduff I would love a big snow or a blizzard. But I’m not seeing it on the model runs. Am I missing something or do you see something. All the models I have seen had us in the rain.

  12. Mary Anne Best says:

    HI Chad Alenduff! Have not seen you around lately! Good to see you on the blog. Well, I am old…and yes I like pretty snow, I really like winter..Snow on the ground with bright sunshine…snow just lying there, not blowing around, lol. So many of my family have to travel to work I am not fond of the blowing, blizzardy snows. So…we wait and see what we get. Not looking forward to those high winds either..I sound like “bah humbug” dont I???

  13. jen says:

    Is no not looking forward to the first snowfall occurring while I work…at a 911 center! Love the snow though as long as i’m not working!

  14. jks says:

    I like the snow for the first time and then forget it after that. If it does get bad I know what I’ll be doing. I’ll be able to get some things done, since I had 4 surgeries since August. I might find some of the things that were put in the wrong place, that is if we don’t lose electricity. That is the only thing I don’t like to happen.

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