Icy Mix Wintry Event Possible Shortly After ChristmasDecember 18th, 2012 at 11:46 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
PIECES THERE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION……….
It appears a wintry event may bring sleet, freezing rain & snow to the area shortly after Christmas. This would most likely occur the day after Christmas. Given the active storm track, moisture-loaded subtropical jet, strong polar jet embedded with jet streaks upstream , their area of merger to our southwest & the cold surface high bleeding in dry, cold air into our region, 1-2 wintry events certainly look possible December 26-December 31.
Exact details are vague, but my confidence is reasonably high on some sort of winter weather event. However, I do not know how much accumulation of sleet, freezing &/or snow will occur yet. Certainly, the amount of moisture & dynamics of the system look pretty impressive enough for substantial amounts. However, my current thinking is that the significant snowfall will occur just northwest of our area with a good percentage of this being icy precipitation in the form of sleet & freezing rain.
The European model is most aggressive on a significant winter weather event on the 26th in the form of an “Inside Runner” system of heavy snowfall here. GFS has a system on Christmas itself & an “Inside Runner” just east of us with heavy snowfall December 26-27. NOGAPS brings significant snow to the area Christmas Day with “Inside Runner” type system. Japanese model (JMA) has low developing on the Gulf Coast of Texas, similar to NOGAPS, GFS & European with an “Inside Runner” type set-up for substantial snowfall.
All said, per analog data, I like more of a mix AFTER Christmas & don’t really like models going with this heavy snow track. This is because of high pressure entrenched to the southeast, which will tend to force system more to the northwest. I also currently do not like an earlier track for right on Christmas.
Stay tuned………….much could change with precipitation type, timing & the strength of the system. This will be monitored over the next week.