Some Fog/Slick Spots Early Tue. A.M………..A Few Tweaks to the Forecast for Thursday…….Post Christmas-New Years Outlook

December 17th, 2012 at 10:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING……….

The showers will gradually end tonight, but not before mixing with a little wet snow, perhaps going to all light snow briefly.

After this, some partial clearing may occur late with some fog.  This, combined with wet pavement & temperatures dropping to near 31 will result to some slick spots here & there.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY………

I have made a few tweaks to the Thursday forecast based on the latest data.

1.  I have upped the wind gusts a bit for Thursday.  Definitely looks like Wind Advisory criteria with perhaps High Wind Watch/Warning just north & west of us.

2.   Also, I went ahead & went “less than 1″ snow” for ENTIRE area for snow showers later Thursday.  Still have 1-3″ for far northeast.

3.  Thinking rain will be confined to a squally rain band with perhaps some thunder beginning as some showers early, early Thursday morning & then passing through throughout the morning, before tapering in the early afternoon.

4.  Thinking there may be a bit of a break with a dry slot Thursday, which will be just behind cold front.  Probably won’t be any sun, but the rain will shut off.  This is where the really strong winds will start to arrive.

5.  Cold, cold air may actually pivot in from the SOUTHWEST & WEST not the NORTHWEST as very strong low wraps up near Kankakee to Chicago & Milwaukee.

6.  Thinking snow showers will pivot in from the southwest & west for later in the day.

So, that rain & wind likely Thursday with highs in the 50s early, rapidly falling into 30s by afternoon after a break in the rain.  Again, wind looks to be a pretty big issue Thursday with some gusts in the viewing area at 45-50 mph.

Winds may gust to 55 mph in northern Illinois, Wisconsin & Missouri to Iowa.  This will lead to BLIZZARD conditions there.  Gusts to 60 mph will be common in Kansas with the snow, resulting in a BLIZZARD.

In terms of those snow showers pivoting in, accumulations look like under 1″ area-wide.  Thursday night-Friday lake effect snow may bring 1-3″ in our far northeastern counties.

CHRISTMAS-NEW YEARS DAY………

Looks like cold air will become pretty entrenched in our area with negative NAO/AO.  Meanwhile subtropical jet will be very active & polar jet will have several very potent jetstreaks embedded in it to spin up storms from the Pacific to the Midwest.

This said, pattern more conducive to wintry weather still looks to arrive.  A wintry system with snow &/or mix may affect us a day or two after Christmas with another near New Years & a lot of cold weather in-between.  Still thinking a night or two may see single digits or even zero in parts of the viewing area.

Negative NAO/AO & very active MJO with energized subtropical jet look to be with us at least to New Years Day.

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10 Responses to “Some Fog/Slick Spots Early Tue. A.M………..A Few Tweaks to the Forecast for Thursday…….Post Christmas-New Years Outlook”

  1. Ryan H says:

    Okay, good news! Patience everyone!

  2. Josh says:

    Models look very interesting after Christmas. But we all know how that goes

  3. Crista says:

    I’m going to Chicago on Thursday to the Kris Kringle Mart. I’m not storm chasing…I’m snow chasing. If it won’t come to me, I’ll go to it.

  4. Duane C says:

    Chicago station is saying that the storm is taking a more southerly track. Do any of you know if this would mean possibly more snow for us or not?

  5. Josh says:

    It would Probally mean it could changeover from rain to snow quicker

  6. Duane C says:

    Thanks Josh. Have you seen any change in the track on the models you use?

  7. Josh says:

    Haven’t looked yet today

  8. Bill in C'ville says:

    New guidance does suggest a little shift to the south, but were still on the warm side. Wrap around snow would be greater if it tracks further south.

  9. Tom says:

    Turn baby! TURN! (South, that is.)

  10. Tom says:

    We might not have a white Christmas this year, so I will talk about the Christmas of 1884. The info is from a farmer living about a mile from Stockwell, Indiana in Tippecanoe County who kept a weather journal from 1859 until he died in 1894. His readings were very close to the readings they were getting in West Lafayette. Here is some of what he wrote in his journal. I will call it “A Christmas for Crista”

    December 1884
    December 23-Sunrise 0 degrees
    December 24- Sunrise 15 degrees and snowing briskly-It snowed briskly nearly all morning. 5 inches of snow has fallen since yesterday evening. 2pm 10 degrees-7pm 9 below
    December 25-Sunrise 5 degrees- It began to snow soon after sunrise very gently and snowed all day very gently- 3 inches of snow fell today.
    December 26- Sunrise 10 below zero.

    About 2 feet of snow fell in December 1884. But on December 29 at sunrise the temp. was 54 degrees and at 1pm it was 57 degrees.

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