Some Fog/Slick Spots Early Tue. A.M………..A Few Tweaks to the Forecast for Thursday…….Post Christmas-New Years OutlookDecember 17th, 2012 at 10:02 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING……….
The showers will gradually end tonight, but not before mixing with a little wet snow, perhaps going to all light snow briefly.
After this, some partial clearing may occur late with some fog. This, combined with wet pavement & temperatures dropping to near 31 will result to some slick spots here & there.
I have made a few tweaks to the Thursday forecast based on the latest data.
1. I have upped the wind gusts a bit for Thursday. Definitely looks like Wind Advisory criteria with perhaps High Wind Watch/Warning just north & west of us.
2. Also, I went ahead & went “less than 1″ snow” for ENTIRE area for snow showers later Thursday. Still have 1-3″ for far northeast.
3. Thinking rain will be confined to a squally rain band with perhaps some thunder beginning as some showers early, early Thursday morning & then passing through throughout the morning, before tapering in the early afternoon.
4. Thinking there may be a bit of a break with a dry slot Thursday, which will be just behind cold front. Probably won’t be any sun, but the rain will shut off. This is where the really strong winds will start to arrive.
5. Cold, cold air may actually pivot in from the SOUTHWEST & WEST not the NORTHWEST as very strong low wraps up near Kankakee to Chicago & Milwaukee.
6. Thinking snow showers will pivot in from the southwest & west for later in the day.
So, that rain & wind likely Thursday with highs in the 50s early, rapidly falling into 30s by afternoon after a break in the rain. Again, wind looks to be a pretty big issue Thursday with some gusts in the viewing area at 45-50 mph.
Winds may gust to 55 mph in northern Illinois, Wisconsin & Missouri to Iowa. This will lead to BLIZZARD conditions there. Gusts to 60 mph will be common in Kansas with the snow, resulting in a BLIZZARD.
In terms of those snow showers pivoting in, accumulations look like under 1″ area-wide. Thursday night-Friday lake effect snow may bring 1-3″ in our far northeastern counties.
CHRISTMAS-NEW YEARS DAY………
Looks like cold air will become pretty entrenched in our area with negative NAO/AO. Meanwhile subtropical jet will be very active & polar jet will have several very potent jetstreaks embedded in it to spin up storms from the Pacific to the Midwest.
This said, pattern more conducive to wintry weather still looks to arrive. A wintry system with snow &/or mix may affect us a day or two after Christmas with another near New Years & a lot of cold weather in-between. Still thinking a night or two may see single digits or even zero in parts of the viewing area.
Negative NAO/AO & very active MJO with energized subtropical jet look to be with us at least to New Years Day.