Outlook to New Years

December 16th, 2012 at 12:00 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

SUNDAY 50s DROPPING TO THE 40s P.M. AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE………..

It is very mild tonight with a temperature of 54 as of 11:58 p.m. after 0.22″ of rainfall today at WLFI (largely late morning rain band with more spotty showers/drizzle thereafter).  Even at this hour, there is drizzle & patchy light rain around with the brisk south to south-southwest winds.

We will likely hover in the 50s all night, but the cold front will pass Sunday late morning-midday with a few showers.  This will be followed by falling temperatures into the 40s Sunday afternoon.

Winds will switch from the south & south-southwest ahead of the front to more westerly winds behind it.  This will be followed by 32 tomorrow night.

FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY WITH EVOLVING NORTHEAST STORM WITH RAIN, WINDY & HEAVY SNOW IN NEW ENGLAND……..

Monday looks mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers & highs of 40-45.  This shortwave will gell with our weekend system & system in the southeast U.S., forming a Nor’Easter-type storm of rain, wind in the Northeast & heavy snowfall in New England from Vermont, New Hampshire to Maine.  It will tend to ride up from Atlantic City, New Jersey to Nantucket & then coastal Nova Scotia.

This will keep it 40-45 Tuesday, too.  Highs will run 45-50 Wednesday.

THURSDAY SHOWERS & WARMEST WEATHER EARLY IN THE DAY………..

After a warm-up to near 51 early Thursday, a cold front will caused temperatures to drop through the day down to 40-42 with showers.

COLDER, DRY WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY………..

Colder weather will send highs down into the 30-35 range next Friday & Saturday with some lake effect snow showers flirting with Fulton/Pulaski/Miami counties (perhaps Cass).  The first widespread teens of the year will arrive Friday night & into next weekend.

CHRISTMAS FORECAST…………POST CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK………..

Christmas Eve & Day looks dry with 30s, but the pattern looks much more conducive for some accumulating snowfall after Christmas.  A generally negative phase NAO/AO (though not excessively so) & very active subtropical jet with several system coming out of California will support an increased likelihood of getting one or more accumulating snows.

It appears, a more potent shot of cold air may arrive near New Years with highs in the 20s & lows in the single digits (especially if snowpack becomes established).  0 is certainly possible in the viewing area if deeper snowpack can be realized.  There are signs of an ejecting California system bringing wintry precipitation to the area near that time (may not be totally snow, but mix of sleet & freezing rain).

All in all, it sure looks like a wintry pattern after Christmas to New Years with pattern flipped to nice storm track here & negative NAO/AO with some Greenland blocking.  I would call this typical cold & wintry precipitation, not anything really brutal or out of the ordinary for a winter around here.

8 Responses to “Outlook to New Years”

  1. Josh says:

    Looks like we are going to miss another one this Thursday and Friday. Need it to move a little farther south. Still out in the Pacific Ocean so we will see

  2. ch n ffort says:

    Where have i heard that before??…lol

  3. Ryan H says:

    12z Euro showed it a little further south, though we are still in the rain. I’m still hoping for some wrap around snow! After X-mas looking interesting on today’s 12z Euro also.

  4. Brad says:

    Is it going to stay in a cold pattern after christmas. Also have you seen david wire and kevin orpurts winter forecast on wthitv

  5. Josh says:

    What are they saying?

  6. Brad says:

    They both put out different forecasts but are pretty much on the website

  7. Josh says:

    No matter what looks like it could be interesting on the back side of the storm. I would be happy with one inch!!

  8. Bill in C'ville says:

    Josh your exactly right, the back side of this system does look like a brief period of moderate snow. I’ll take a little snow before Christmas.

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