Areas of Fog, Unseasonably Warm………….Latest On Outlook to December 13 (Comparing U.S., Europe, Canada & Japan Models)

December 2nd, 2012 at 3:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

UPDATE:

Areas of some dense fog, low, low clouds & a few showers/drizzle are possible late tonight-Monday morning.  NWS forecast offices have issued Dense Fog Advisory for the entire viewing area as this unseasonably warm, moist air hangs over a still fairly cool ground.  In fact, this is causing the asphalt to sweat.  Warm air that is very moist over a cool to cold pavement makes the pavement wet as a cold drink out on a warm day would become wet.

I do not think it will be solid, 0.06-0.25 mile visibility everywhere, but more patchy in nature with that low. low visibility & some places not as bad.

This will quickly mix out by mid-tomorrow morning as winds crank up.  In fact, south winds may gust to 35 mph Monday afternoon-evening.

Stratus/stratocumulus is breaking up & clearing out & temperatures are warming to unseasonably high levels this afternoon.  It is unusually warm over a good chunk of the U.S with 75 degrees right now at St. Louis & 82 at Dallas!  Even Denver has 65!

It looks, smells & sounds like spring outside after some scattered showers & thunder late lastnight & this morning.  Overnight winds were also gusty with 35 mph gusts measured.

Clouds will increase again tonight & some fog may develop with incredibly warm lows in the middle 50s.  This will be followed by a few showers mainly tomorrow morning & then a band of rain & a few t’storms tomorrow night-early Tuesday morning.

A brief chunk of cold air will arrive mid-week after temperatures fall Tuesday & reach mid to upper 20s by early Wednesday morning.

California will see another round of flooding as “Pineapple Express” with intense MJO will continue to pummel state with storms.  Widespread flooding, mudslides & wind with very heavy mountain snow is likely again this week.  You can see moisture plume headed back into California on the satellite image below.

That big storm will force another bubble of warmth east with 50-54 here possible by Friday with showers.

A chunk of cold air will arrive behind it, as California dries out a bit at that point.

Once the cold air arrives next weekend, another storm system from California may bring some showers & perhaps wintry mix.  The system after that bears watching.  As it makes a more southerly track with cold air entrenched in our area, the potential for snow will exist near that December 10 time frame.  GFS has a nice track for accumulating snowfall here, but we will watch it closely.  European is similar & the NOGAPS is similar to GFS & European out to Friday.  Canadian CMC model only goes out to Friday evening, but is pretty similar to the others up to that point.  The Japanese model, the JMA, goes out to to Saturday morning & is just a only a bit more progressive with the front, BUT STILL forms a surface low in the southern Plains like all of the others.

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13 Responses to “Areas of Fog, Unseasonably Warm………….Latest On Outlook to December 13 (Comparing U.S., Europe, Canada & Japan Models)”

  1. Beth (Fowler) says:

    Drove through some fog in Benton County around Boswell.

  2. Chris in Tipton says:

    Yes—-getting quite froggy around here too!!!

    I have shed a tear over many a GFS forecast 7 days out….so I am not holding my breath yet. What about the Canadian, Jap and Euro models?

  3. Josh says:

    Wondering the same thing myself

  4. Michelle says:

    Hey Chad can you tell somebody to add your blog back the the new chan 18 ap! Your blog was the only reason I used it.
    Keep the great work on your blog but the new ap is horrid. Pass it on please

  5. Bill in C'ville says:

    The 12z run on the gfs looks very impressive for snow in the area. But it is the gfs and we all know that can change. But at least there is some hope for the snow lovers!!!!

  6. Bill in C'ville says:

    Next Monday Tuesday time frame.

  7. Josh says:

    How much bill?

  8. Josh says:

    What website do u use for models bill?

  9. Duane C says:

    It look like more of a rain event….too warm. I will officially join the snow lovers club, though. Hope I am wrong.

  10. Chris in Tipton says:

    I agree—–have been burned on the GFS especially this early out…..however, I like what Chad said about the other models showing similarities…..

    On another note….my home thermometer was at 70 at 2:30….at 69.6 now (2:45)

  11. Josh says:

    What website do u use for models Chris?

  12. Chris in Tipton says:

    Weather Underground is good…..I sometimes use the NWS site….and sometimes I just google the name of the model….lol

  13. Josh says:

    Thanks chris

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